Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey
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The document summarizes key points from a conference on August 10, 2011. It discusses three potential economic scenarios: a moderate "Goldilocks" scenario, a worse "Big Bad Wolf" scenario where debt burdens cause slow growth, and an uncertain "Sleeping Beauty" scenario. It also covers topics like deleveraging, the hollowing out of New Zealand's income and population, an aging society, and social unrest among youth.
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Intergen Dynamics Day '11 - GFC v2.0 presented by Bernard Hickey
- 1. GFC v2.0 Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 2. • Market meltdown • Déjà vu all over again • The new normal • Three scenarios • Lower for longer Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 3. • Some big pictures • Deleveraging Inc • Great Repression • Hollowed out NZ • Ageing & nesting • Los Indignados • A stateless cloud Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 4. But first a joke: Why did God create economists. Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 5. To make weather forecasters look good Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 6. Market meltdown/up Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 7. The rate of fear Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 8. Turning Japanese Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 9. Deja vu all over again Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 10. The new normal? Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 11. Three scenarios: 1. Goldilocks 2. The Big Bad Wolf 3. Sleeping beauty (ugly) Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 12. The Goldilocks scenario: not to hot and not too cold Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 13. •Extend and pretend works • Just enough inflation to relieve debt burden • Political stability • Energy stability Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 14. •Strong Chinese and Indian growth for 10-20 years • High commodity prices, low inflation • Orderly markets • Low rates Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 15. A great wall of demand for protein and holidays in our time zone and hemisphere Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 16. A world of protein Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 17. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 18. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 19. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 20. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 21. Rising up the curve Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 22. The Big Bad Wolf and the four little PIGS Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 23. •Developed world chokes on too much dumb debt • Extend and pretend fails •10-20 years of very slow growth Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 24. •China slows down to contain inflation • Lower commodity prices, lower NZ$ • Slow to no growth • Markets volatile • Low rates Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 25. A world of debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 26. A world of debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 27. Structural imbalance Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 28. China’s savings rate Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 29. The interconnected nature of the Big Bad Debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 30. PIGS in a blanket Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 31. It’s the household debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 32. It’s the house prices Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 33. It’s the net foreign debt Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 34. Not so comfortable Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 35. It’s the bloody peak oil Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 36. China’s ghost cities Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 37. Helicopter Ben Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 38. Sleeping Beauty or should that be Sleeping Ugly Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 39. The new normal? Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 40. How NZ’s income, assets and people are being hollowed out Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 41. The foreign drain Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 42. The real problem Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 43. They just left Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 44. 40% support 60% Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 45. ”By 2020 the number of new labour force entrants will be surpassed by the numbers retiring” Natalie Jackson Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 46. Ageing and nesting Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 47. Hollowed out NZ Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 48. Young and angry Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 49. Los Indignados Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 50. A stateless cloud Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011
- 51. A family snapshot Intergen Conference, Rendezvous, Aug 10, 2011