2. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA COMBINED TO REACH 100 MILLION
INTERNET USERS IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS
GDP per
capita, $
(2011) UKRAINE
143.0M
13,262 30 # of users*, M Penetration, % people,
25 90% the world`s 6th
25 CAGR largest
+22% economy
20 70%
58%
CAGR RUSSIA
15 +34%
14
50% 80 # of users**, M Penetration, %
10
10 8 32% CAGR
70 90%
6 70
25% 30% +11%
5 15%
20%
60 70%
CAGR
0 10% +14%
51
2008 2009 2010 2011 2014F 50 45
62%
53% 50%
39
45.8M
40
3,560 In September 2011, Russia 32 39%
people overtook Germany as 34% 30%
Europe’s largest Internet 30 28%
market by number of users
65M users combined in
Russia and Ukraine as of 20 10%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2014F
end of 2011
163 1,9 GDP, $B
Source: comScore, GFK Ukraine, IMF (2011)
*older than 18 years old
**older than 15 years old
2
3. E-COMMERCE IN RUSSIA TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER GAINS
GDP (PPP) per capita in Russia and Europe E-commerce is gaining momentum, capturing increasing share in
Russia`s retail turnover CAGR
2009-11,%
Russians and Total retail turnover, $B
621 7% E-commerce in
Disposable S32.7K Europeans have Russia is to
almost the same E-commerce turnover, $B grow by 40-50%
income
shopping power 579 10.3 51% to reach $30-
40B in the next
16M people (33% few years
S15.0K of Internet users) 545 7.6
made online E-commerce in
$13.1K Europe will
$10.5K purchases over 4.5
a 6-month- grow just 12%
period p.a. over the
Average VS Average next 5 years
Russian European 2009 2010 2011
Selected retail sectors most heavily disrupted by e-commerce sales
Clothes, Consumer Cosmetics Children`s Air tickets
footwear and electronics and toiletries toys
accessories and home
appliances 52M women
+10.0% 15-64 spend 22M children
$62.5 12% of under the age
$56.8 income on 14
+81.8%
Total, $B
cosmetics (2X
$40.0 vs. US&EU)
2010 $21.5 +9.2% +15.2% +23.6%
2011 $10.9 $11.9 $9.8 $11.3 $9.2
$7.4
+75.1% +31.7% +44.7% +41.8% +106.7%
Online
$641M 1,11B $2.6B $3.4B 47M 69M $322M $457M $537M 1,10B
4. ONLINE ADVERTISING IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: THE
FASTEST GROWTH RATES IN THE WORLD
RUSSIA UKRAINE
Revenues from online advertising to Advertising budgets in Ukraine are yet
double every other year to move online
+50% p.a. +50% p.a
$2.8B
$123M
$1.8B
$83M
$0.8B $1.4B $55M
$35M
2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2010 2011 2012E 2013F
Online ads per capita, $ Online ads per capita, $
$5,7 $9.5 $12.8 $19.2 $0.8 $1.2 $1.8 $2.7
Online ads in Russia exceeded ads in Although online ads have increased by
the press for the first time in 2011 and 57% over the last year, they still represent
finished the year with 56% growth the smallest market when compared to
(highest growth rate in the industry) other media Online
$55M
Online Out-
TV TV Press Out-
$1.4B door
$4.3B $440M $305M door
$1.1B
$125M
Press
$1.3B
+18% +56% +6% +15% +33% +57% +10% +25%
4
5. ENTERPRISE SAAS MARKET CAN REACH $4-5B, IS SET
TO GROW BY 100-150% P.A. FROM A MODEST BASE OF
$100 MILLION
Russia Ukraine
Quantity 536K 67K
LLCs and
corporations Potential SaaS $5,000 $3,000
budget, $
Quantity 1.7M 381K
SMBs
Potential SaaS $1,000 $500
budget, $
Potential SaaS
$4.4B $0.4B
market size
Existing enterprise
$9.1B $0.1B
software market
In Russia, the SAAS market (~100M in 2011) is likely to grow by seizing share from the existing $9B enterprise
software market, especially in collaboration, business intelligence, CRM, ERP and security segments (to reach
$4.5B in the next few years).
In Ukraine, the SaaS market is yet to emerge and is likely to grow organically thanks to new users (to reach $0.4-
0.5B in the next few years)
Source: IDC, Russian and Ukrainian Statisctics Committees
6. OPPORTUNITY IN MOBILE APPLICATIONS
SMARTPHONE USAGE IN RUSSIA SMARTPHONE USAGE IN UKRAINE
45M
total # of mobile internet 5-9M total # of mobile internet
21-29M 4M
users (3G USB modems & users (3G USB modems &
SIMs, 2G) SIMs, 2G) 12M
1.5-3M 2G mobile internet users
15M 3G mobile internet users 1M
(microSIMS) 21M
3G mobile internet users
50K
(microSIMs)
6M
16.1M +116% 5.79M +28%
4.54M 1.10M +80%
5.3M +60%
+200%
7.6M +292% 0.45M
20M
2.0M 4.69M +15% 5M
10.8M +95% 4.09M
5.6M
6
01`2011 01` 2012 01` 2014F 01`2011 01` 2012 01` 2014F
Major drivers:
Growth of mobile-only Internet users;
25-40% of social network users check in via mobile devices (up to 10M daily unique mobile users in Russia and Ukraine(
Emerging interest to social/local mobile commerce
Middle-class and younger users demand more engaging mobile content
LTE network development in Russia in 2012 and beyond
New licenses for 3G mobile internet via carriers` microSIM expected in Ukraine in 2012-2013
Alternative monetization models preferred (affiliate programs etc.) - Apple's App store and Google's Play accept payments almost
exclusively through bank cards, which Russians and Ukrainians are reluctant to use for digital payments
Source: MTS, Kyivstar, Life:), AIN.UA, Informa Telecoms & Media, eMarketer, Svyaznoy, Xyologic, i-Free
7. OPPORTUNITIES IN GAMES: RUSSIA
Russian online gaming market, $B TOP-5 Russian original game developers*
$1.40
+35-40% Revenue,
Company Game type 2011
Social, Casual,
Mail.ru Games $129M
+21% p.a. $1.00 Browser
$0.74 Game Insight Mobile $40M
$0.68
MMOG and
Innova Systems $36M
browser
Alawar Casual $30M
ZeptoLabs Mobile $24M
2009 2010 2011 2012E
Highlights:
Russian gaming industry is relatively young, most of its top players emerged in mobile/social era
Total gaming audience represented by 38M people, casual games being the most popular (played by 29M people), while console
games attract some 14M players only.
Total industry revenue reached estimated $1B, despite the fact that 75% of PC or console games are being downloaded illegally.
Casual and mobile game developers are globally oriented businesses, while social games are fine-tuned for domestoc social
network users
The market is still fragmented and awaits consolidation
*other successful gaming companies include
VC-backed Drimmi and Pixonic
Source: Discovery Research Group, NewZoo, Forbes.ru 7
8. OPPORTUNITIES IN GAMES: UKRAINE
Major original game developers in Ukraine
Company Game type Examples of games International publisher/ client
GSC Game World Console & PC S.T.A.L.K.E.R, Cossaks: European WARS THQ Inc (USA)
Action Forms / Tatem Console & PC/ iOS
Carnivores, Vivisector Beeplex Group (USA)
Games mobile
4A Games Console & PC Metro 2033, etc., Men of War THQ Inc , Best Way (USA)
Quest games Sherlock Holmes, World of
Frogwares Console & PC, mobile Frogwares Games (Ireland)
Battle, etc.
Dereza Production Studio Console & PC, casual Turnips Quest games, Sinbad IDDK Group (Russia)
Overload, Family Game Night, World of Microsof, Disney, Zynga,
Persha Studia Console & PC, casual
tanks, World of warplanes etc.
Casual, social, mobile
Absolutist 100+ titles Self-publisher
& PC
Mistery of the Earl, Celtic Lore, online
Zen-producers Social, casual, PC Self-publisher
portal Funlinker
Highlights:
Ukrainian gaming industry emerged in the late 1990s when Ukraine became a hotbed of outsourced labor for major Western
games publishers
Most Ukrainian game developers are represented by “legacy” players specializing on expensive AAA console games; cumulative
annual budget of top players is greater than $100M
The monetary value of internal market is unclear, with lion`s share of revenues going to Russian social networks` gaming
applications
Casual and mobile game developers are globally oriented / most of them combine original products with outsourcing work
Source: Bagnet org, team analysis 8