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2012 INTERNET OPPORTUNITIES IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: MAJOR
VERTICALS:
E-COMMERCE
SAAS
MOBILE GAMING



@inke ©All rights reserved
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA COMBINED TO REACH 100 MILLION
      INTERNET USERS IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS
GDP per
capita, $
(2011)                                            UKRAINE
                                                                                                                 143.0M
  13,262     30                      # of users*, M          Penetration, %                                      people,
                                                                   25      90%                               the world`s 6th
             25                                         CAGR                                                     largest
                                                        +22%                                                    economy
             20                                                            70%
                                                                  58%
                             CAGR                                                                                RUSSIA
             15              +34%
                                                14
                                                                           50% 80                # of users**, M          Penetration, %
                                          10
             10                  8             32%                                                                 CAGR
                                                                                                                                70     90%
                         6                                                          70
                                         25%                               30%                                     +11%
                5      15%
                               20%
                                                                                    60                                                 70%
                                                                                            CAGR
                0                                                          10%              +14%
                                                                                                              51
                        2008    2009     2010 2011                 2014F            50                 45
                                                                                                                               62%
                                                                                                             53%                       50%
                                                                                                39
                                45.8M
                                                                                    40
    3,560                                              In September 2011, Russia        32            39%
                                people                  overtook Germany as                     34%                                    30%
                                                        Europe’s largest Internet   30   28%
                                                        market by number of users
                                                       65M users combined in
                                                        Russia and Ukraine as of    20                                                 10%
                                                                                         2008   2009   2010 2011               2014F
                                                        end of 2011



                                 163                                                                               1,9                 GDP, $B
Source: comScore, GFK Ukraine, IMF                                                                                                     (2011)
*older than 18 years old
**older than 15 years old
                                                                                                                                                 2
E-COMMERCE IN RUSSIA TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER GAINS
 GDP (PPP) per capita in Russia and Europe                 E-commerce is gaining momentum, capturing increasing share in
                                                           Russia`s retail turnover              CAGR
                                                                                               2009-11,%
                                       Russians and            Total retail turnover, $B
                                                                                          621      7%     E-commerce in
   Disposable       S32.7K              Europeans have                                                     Russia is to
                                        almost the same        E-commerce turnover, $B                     grow by 40-50%
   income
                                        shopping power                           579      10.3    51%      to reach $30-
                                                                                                           40B in the next
                                       16M people (33%                                                    few years
   S15.0K                               of Internet users)        545           7.6
                                        made online                                                       E-commerce in
                    $13.1K                                                                                 Europe will
   $10.5K                               purchases over            4.5
                                        a 6-month-                                                         grow just 12%
                                        period                                                             p.a. over the
   Average     VS      Average                                                                             next 5 years
   Russian             European                                  2009           2010      2011


 Selected retail sectors most heavily disrupted by e-commerce sales
                       Clothes,              Consumer           Cosmetics            Children`s          Air tickets
                       footwear and          electronics        and toiletries       toys
                       accessories           and home
                                             appliances          52M women
                        +10.0%                                   15-64 spend          22M children
                              $62.5                              12% of               under the age
                        $56.8                                    income on            14
                                             +81.8%
   Total, $B




                                                                 cosmetics (2X
                                                     $40.0       vs. US&EU)

                2010                         $21.5                 +9.2%              +15.2%             +23.6%
                2011                                             $10.9 $11.9          $9.8 $11.3                  $9.2
                                                                                                          $7.4
                        +75.1%               +31.7%               +44.7%              +41.8%             +106.7%
   Online




                       $641M 1,11B            $2.6B     $3.4B     47M      69M       $322M $457M         $537M 1,10B
ONLINE ADVERTISING IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: THE
FASTEST GROWTH RATES IN THE WORLD
                        RUSSIA                                     UKRAINE

     Revenues from online advertising to         Advertising budgets in Ukraine are yet
     double every other year                     to move online
                        +50% p.a.                                  +50% p.a
                                       $2.8B
                                                                                  $123M
                             $1.8B
                                                                       $83M
       $0.8B      $1.4B                                     $55M
                                                 $35M

       2010          2011     2012E     2013F     2010      2011       2012E      2013F
      Online ads per capita, $                   Online ads per capita, $
       $5,7      $9.5      $12.8       $19.2      $0.8      $1.2      $1.8        $2.7
      Online ads in Russia exceeded ads in       Although online ads have increased by
      the press for the first time in 2011 and   57% over the last year, they still represent
      finished the year with 56% growth          the smallest market when compared to
      (highest growth rate in the industry)      other media       Online
                                                                    $55M
                             Online      Out-
               TV                                          TV                  Press      Out-
                             $1.4B      door
              $4.3B                                      $440M                 $305M      door
                                        $1.1B
                                                                                         $125M
                                    Press
                                    $1.3B


              +18%          +56% +6% +15%                +33%       +57%       +10%       +25%




                                                                                                 4
ENTERPRISE SAAS MARKET CAN REACH $4-5B, IS SET
       TO GROW BY 100-150% P.A. FROM A MODEST BASE OF
       $100 MILLION
                                                                 Russia                          Ukraine




                                  Quantity                        536K                             67K
       LLCs and
      corporations                Potential SaaS                 $5,000                          $3,000
                                  budget, $



                                  Quantity                        1.7M                            381K
          SMBs
                                  Potential SaaS                 $1,000                           $500
                                  budget, $




                                  Potential SaaS
                                                                $4.4B                              $0.4B
                                  market size

                                  Existing enterprise
                                                                $9.1B                              $0.1B
                                  software market

       In Russia, the SAAS market (~100M in 2011) is likely to grow by seizing share from the existing $9B enterprise
        software market, especially in collaboration, business intelligence, CRM, ERP and security segments (to reach
        $4.5B in the next few years).
       In Ukraine, the SaaS market is yet to emerge and is likely to grow organically thanks to new users (to reach $0.4-
        0.5B in the next few years)


Source: IDC, Russian and Ukrainian Statisctics Committees
OPPORTUNITY IN MOBILE APPLICATIONS
                SMARTPHONE USAGE IN RUSSIA                                                                  SMARTPHONE USAGE IN UKRAINE

                                                                 45M
                       total # of mobile internet                                                  5-9M            total # of mobile internet
         21-29M                                                   4M
                       users (3G USB modems &                                                                      users (3G USB modems &
                       SIMs, 2G)                                                                                   SIMs, 2G)                     12M
                                                                                                   1.5-3M          2G mobile internet users
         15M           3G mobile internet users                                                                                                    1M
                       (microSIMS)                               21M
                                                                                                                   3G mobile internet users
                                                                                                   50K
                                                                                                                   (microSIMs)
                                                                                                                                                   6M
                              16.1M       +116%                                                                        5.79M     +28%
                                                                                                         4.54M         1.10M     +80%
                               5.3M       +60%
                                                                                                                                 +200%
               7.6M                       +292%                                                          0.45M
                                                                 20M
              2.0M                                                                                                     4.69M     +15%              5M
                              10.8M       +95%                                                           4.09M
              5.6M
                                                                                                                                                            6
             01`2011          01` 2012                        01` 2014F                                  01`2011      01` 2012                  01` 2014F



         Major drivers:
        Growth of mobile-only Internet users;
        25-40% of social network users check in via mobile devices (up to 10M daily unique mobile users in Russia and Ukraine(
        Emerging interest to social/local mobile commerce
        Middle-class and younger users demand more engaging mobile content
        LTE network development in Russia in 2012 and beyond
        New licenses for 3G mobile internet via carriers` microSIM expected in Ukraine in 2012-2013
        Alternative monetization models preferred (affiliate programs etc.) - Apple's App store and Google's Play accept payments almost
         exclusively through bank cards, which Russians and Ukrainians are reluctant to use for digital payments


Source: MTS, Kyivstar, Life:), AIN.UA, Informa Telecoms & Media, eMarketer, Svyaznoy, Xyologic, i-Free
OPPORTUNITIES IN GAMES: RUSSIA

          Russian online gaming market, $B                                   TOP-5 Russian original game developers*
                                                  $1.40
                                   +35-40%                                                                           Revenue,
                                                                                 Company           Game type           2011

                                                                                                   Social, Casual,
                                                                               Mail.ru Games                           $129M
                  +21% p.a.           $1.00                                                        Browser


                          $0.74                                                Game Insight        Mobile              $40M
              $0.68

                                                                                                   MMOG and
                                                                               Innova Systems                          $36M
                                                                                                   browser


                                                                               Alawar              Casual              $30M


                                                                               ZeptoLabs           Mobile              $24M

             2009        2010         2011       2012E
         Highlights:
        Russian gaming industry is relatively young, most of its top players emerged in mobile/social era
        Total gaming audience represented by 38M people, casual games being the most popular (played by 29M people), while console
         games attract some 14M players only.
        Total industry revenue reached estimated $1B, despite the fact that 75% of PC or console games are being downloaded illegally.
        Casual and mobile game developers are globally oriented businesses, while social games are fine-tuned for domestoc social
         network users
        The market is still fragmented and awaits consolidation

*other successful gaming companies include
 VC-backed Drimmi and Pixonic
Source: Discovery Research Group, NewZoo, Forbes.ru                                                                                       7
OPPORTUNITIES IN GAMES: UKRAINE
           Major original game developers in Ukraine

                  Company                  Game type                      Examples of games                International publisher/ client

         GSC Game World               Console & PC              S.T.A.L.K.E.R, Cossaks: European WARS         THQ Inc (USA)

         Action Forms / Tatem         Console & PC/ iOS
                                                                Carnivores, Vivisector                        Beeplex Group (USA)
         Games                        mobile

         4A Games                     Console & PC              Metro 2033, etc., Men of War                  THQ Inc , Best Way (USA)

                                                                Quest games Sherlock Holmes, World of
         Frogwares                    Console & PC, mobile                                                    Frogwares Games (Ireland)
                                                                Battle, etc.

         Dereza Production Studio     Console & PC, casual      Turnips Quest games, Sinbad                   IDDK Group (Russia)

                                                                Overload, Family Game Night, World of         Microsof, Disney, Zynga,
         Persha Studia                Console & PC, casual
                                                                tanks, World of warplanes                     etc.
                                      Casual, social, mobile
         Absolutist                                             100+ titles                                   Self-publisher
                                      & PC
                                                                Mistery of the Earl, Celtic Lore, online
         Zen-producers                Social, casual, PC                                                      Self-publisher
                                                                portal Funlinker

         Highlights:
        Ukrainian gaming industry emerged in the late 1990s when Ukraine became a hotbed of outsourced labor for major Western
         games publishers
        Most Ukrainian game developers are represented by “legacy” players specializing on expensive AAA console games; cumulative
         annual budget of top players is greater than $100M
        The monetary value of internal market is unclear, with lion`s share of revenues going to Russian social networks` gaming
         applications
        Casual and mobile game developers are globally oriented / most of them combine original products with outsourcing work



Source: Bagnet org, team analysis                                                                                                            8

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Russian and Ukrainian internet market: major verticals

  • 1. 2012 INTERNET OPPORTUNITIES IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: MAJOR VERTICALS: E-COMMERCE SAAS MOBILE GAMING @inke ©All rights reserved
  • 2. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA COMBINED TO REACH 100 MILLION INTERNET USERS IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS GDP per capita, $ (2011) UKRAINE 143.0M 13,262 30 # of users*, M Penetration, % people, 25 90% the world`s 6th 25 CAGR largest +22% economy 20 70% 58% CAGR RUSSIA 15 +34% 14 50% 80 # of users**, M Penetration, % 10 10 8 32% CAGR 70 90% 6 70 25% 30% +11% 5 15% 20% 60 70% CAGR 0 10% +14% 51 2008 2009 2010 2011 2014F 50 45 62% 53% 50% 39 45.8M 40 3,560  In September 2011, Russia 32 39% people overtook Germany as 34% 30% Europe’s largest Internet 30 28% market by number of users  65M users combined in Russia and Ukraine as of 20 10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2014F end of 2011 163 1,9 GDP, $B Source: comScore, GFK Ukraine, IMF (2011) *older than 18 years old **older than 15 years old 2
  • 3. E-COMMERCE IN RUSSIA TO MAKE EVEN BIGGER GAINS GDP (PPP) per capita in Russia and Europe E-commerce is gaining momentum, capturing increasing share in Russia`s retail turnover CAGR 2009-11,%  Russians and Total retail turnover, $B 621 7%  E-commerce in Disposable S32.7K Europeans have Russia is to almost the same E-commerce turnover, $B grow by 40-50% income shopping power 579 10.3 51% to reach $30- 40B in the next  16M people (33% few years S15.0K of Internet users) 545 7.6 made online  E-commerce in $13.1K Europe will $10.5K purchases over 4.5 a 6-month- grow just 12% period p.a. over the Average VS Average next 5 years Russian European 2009 2010 2011 Selected retail sectors most heavily disrupted by e-commerce sales Clothes, Consumer Cosmetics Children`s Air tickets footwear and electronics and toiletries toys accessories and home appliances 52M women +10.0% 15-64 spend 22M children $62.5 12% of under the age $56.8 income on 14 +81.8% Total, $B cosmetics (2X $40.0 vs. US&EU) 2010 $21.5 +9.2% +15.2% +23.6% 2011 $10.9 $11.9 $9.8 $11.3 $9.2 $7.4 +75.1% +31.7% +44.7% +41.8% +106.7% Online $641M 1,11B $2.6B $3.4B 47M 69M $322M $457M $537M 1,10B
  • 4. ONLINE ADVERTISING IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: THE FASTEST GROWTH RATES IN THE WORLD RUSSIA UKRAINE Revenues from online advertising to Advertising budgets in Ukraine are yet double every other year to move online +50% p.a. +50% p.a $2.8B $123M $1.8B $83M $0.8B $1.4B $55M $35M 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2010 2011 2012E 2013F Online ads per capita, $ Online ads per capita, $ $5,7 $9.5 $12.8 $19.2 $0.8 $1.2 $1.8 $2.7 Online ads in Russia exceeded ads in Although online ads have increased by the press for the first time in 2011 and 57% over the last year, they still represent finished the year with 56% growth the smallest market when compared to (highest growth rate in the industry) other media Online $55M Online Out- TV TV Press Out- $1.4B door $4.3B $440M $305M door $1.1B $125M Press $1.3B +18% +56% +6% +15% +33% +57% +10% +25% 4
  • 5. ENTERPRISE SAAS MARKET CAN REACH $4-5B, IS SET TO GROW BY 100-150% P.A. FROM A MODEST BASE OF $100 MILLION Russia Ukraine Quantity 536K 67K LLCs and corporations Potential SaaS $5,000 $3,000 budget, $ Quantity 1.7M 381K SMBs Potential SaaS $1,000 $500 budget, $ Potential SaaS $4.4B $0.4B market size Existing enterprise $9.1B $0.1B software market  In Russia, the SAAS market (~100M in 2011) is likely to grow by seizing share from the existing $9B enterprise software market, especially in collaboration, business intelligence, CRM, ERP and security segments (to reach $4.5B in the next few years).  In Ukraine, the SaaS market is yet to emerge and is likely to grow organically thanks to new users (to reach $0.4- 0.5B in the next few years) Source: IDC, Russian and Ukrainian Statisctics Committees
  • 6. OPPORTUNITY IN MOBILE APPLICATIONS SMARTPHONE USAGE IN RUSSIA SMARTPHONE USAGE IN UKRAINE 45M total # of mobile internet 5-9M total # of mobile internet 21-29M 4M users (3G USB modems & users (3G USB modems & SIMs, 2G) SIMs, 2G) 12M 1.5-3M 2G mobile internet users 15M 3G mobile internet users 1M (microSIMS) 21M 3G mobile internet users 50K (microSIMs) 6M 16.1M +116% 5.79M +28% 4.54M 1.10M +80% 5.3M +60% +200% 7.6M +292% 0.45M 20M 2.0M 4.69M +15% 5M 10.8M +95% 4.09M 5.6M 6 01`2011 01` 2012 01` 2014F 01`2011 01` 2012 01` 2014F Major drivers:  Growth of mobile-only Internet users;  25-40% of social network users check in via mobile devices (up to 10M daily unique mobile users in Russia and Ukraine(  Emerging interest to social/local mobile commerce  Middle-class and younger users demand more engaging mobile content  LTE network development in Russia in 2012 and beyond  New licenses for 3G mobile internet via carriers` microSIM expected in Ukraine in 2012-2013  Alternative monetization models preferred (affiliate programs etc.) - Apple's App store and Google's Play accept payments almost exclusively through bank cards, which Russians and Ukrainians are reluctant to use for digital payments Source: MTS, Kyivstar, Life:), AIN.UA, Informa Telecoms & Media, eMarketer, Svyaznoy, Xyologic, i-Free
  • 7. OPPORTUNITIES IN GAMES: RUSSIA Russian online gaming market, $B TOP-5 Russian original game developers* $1.40 +35-40% Revenue, Company Game type 2011 Social, Casual, Mail.ru Games $129M +21% p.a. $1.00 Browser $0.74 Game Insight Mobile $40M $0.68 MMOG and Innova Systems $36M browser Alawar Casual $30M ZeptoLabs Mobile $24M 2009 2010 2011 2012E Highlights:  Russian gaming industry is relatively young, most of its top players emerged in mobile/social era  Total gaming audience represented by 38M people, casual games being the most popular (played by 29M people), while console games attract some 14M players only.  Total industry revenue reached estimated $1B, despite the fact that 75% of PC or console games are being downloaded illegally.  Casual and mobile game developers are globally oriented businesses, while social games are fine-tuned for domestoc social network users  The market is still fragmented and awaits consolidation *other successful gaming companies include VC-backed Drimmi and Pixonic Source: Discovery Research Group, NewZoo, Forbes.ru 7
  • 8. OPPORTUNITIES IN GAMES: UKRAINE Major original game developers in Ukraine Company Game type Examples of games International publisher/ client GSC Game World Console & PC S.T.A.L.K.E.R, Cossaks: European WARS THQ Inc (USA) Action Forms / Tatem Console & PC/ iOS Carnivores, Vivisector Beeplex Group (USA) Games mobile 4A Games Console & PC Metro 2033, etc., Men of War THQ Inc , Best Way (USA) Quest games Sherlock Holmes, World of Frogwares Console & PC, mobile Frogwares Games (Ireland) Battle, etc. Dereza Production Studio Console & PC, casual Turnips Quest games, Sinbad IDDK Group (Russia) Overload, Family Game Night, World of Microsof, Disney, Zynga, Persha Studia Console & PC, casual tanks, World of warplanes etc. Casual, social, mobile Absolutist 100+ titles Self-publisher & PC Mistery of the Earl, Celtic Lore, online Zen-producers Social, casual, PC Self-publisher portal Funlinker Highlights:  Ukrainian gaming industry emerged in the late 1990s when Ukraine became a hotbed of outsourced labor for major Western games publishers  Most Ukrainian game developers are represented by “legacy” players specializing on expensive AAA console games; cumulative annual budget of top players is greater than $100M  The monetary value of internal market is unclear, with lion`s share of revenues going to Russian social networks` gaming applications  Casual and mobile game developers are globally oriented / most of them combine original products with outsourcing work Source: Bagnet org, team analysis 8