Presentation made by Lawrence Hislop, Head of Polar and Cryosphere programme. GRID-Arendal - Norway - What is GRID-Arendal - Polar programme mandate - Mountains and Rio - Mountain ecosystem goods and services - Global Environmental Changes. The effects of climate change - Central Asia climate - Recommendations - Hindu Kush Himalaya region -

1. UNEP in the mountains
- Data needs and gaps
- Examples in Himalayas and Central Asia
Lawrence Hislop
Head, Polar and Cryosphere programme
GRID-Arendal
Norway
Rio Mountain Pavillion, 2012

2. What is GRID-Arendal
Established in 1989 by the
Government of Norway as a
Norwegian Foundation
Mission is to communicate
environmental information to
policy-makers and facilitate
environmental decision
making for change.
GRID-Arendal is a
collaborating centre of
the United Nations
Environment Programme
(UNEP).
Operate as a non-profit www.grida.no
organisation.

4. Polar programme mandate
Provide UNEP with environmental assessments and early warning, with particular focus on
the Arctic.
- GEO contributions.
•Stakeholder processes - To facilitate and participate in stakeholder processes that
recognize different values, perspectives, and knowledge, with a particular emphasis on
empowering Arctic peoples.
•Assessments and Early Warning - To provide interdisciplinary polar assessments and
early warning to build awareness as a foundation for decision-making.
•Capacity Building – To engage in projects and initiatives toward building the capacity of
Arctic peoples to effectively manage regional challenges and to take advantage of emerging
opportunities.
•Communication and Outreach - To raise the profile of the Polar Regions by providing
outreach, education and communication services.
•Expertise - To provide analytical and management tools, methods and expertise to meet
stakeholder demands.

5. Mountains and Rio
Agenda 21, Section II
Conservation & Management of
Resources for Development
Chapter 13
Managing Fragile Ecosystems:
Sustainable Mountain Development

6. Mountains and Rio
B) Data and information
13.7. Governments at the appropriate level, with the support of the relevant
international and regional organizations, should:
(a) Maintain and establish meteorological, hydrological and physical monitoring
analysis and capabilities that would encompass the climatic diversity as well as
water distribution of various mountain regions of the world;
(b) Build an inventory of different forms of soils, forests, water use, and crop,
plant and animal genetic resources, giving priority to those under threat of
extinction. Genetic resources should be protected in situ by maintaining and
establishing protected areas and improving traditional farming and animal
husbandry activities and establishing programmes for evaluating the potential
value of the resources;
(c) Identify hazardous areas that are most vulnerable to erosion, floods,
landslides, earthquakes, snow avalanches and other natural hazards;
(d) Identify mountain areas threatened by air pollution from neighbouring
industrial and urban areas.

7. Mountain ecosystem
goods and services

8. New publication due
in print - July 2012

11. Global Environmental Changes
The effects of climate change
All figures extracted from ZOÏ, Climate change in Central Asia: a visual synthesis, 2009

12. Global Environmental Changes
The effects of climate change

13. Status of glacier monitoring • Gaps
• Lack of data since 1990
system limitations • Slow re-activation since 1996
Left figures come from CAWa personnal communication
Right figure extracted from IHP/HRWP, Assessment of Snow, Glacier and Water Resources in Asia, 2009

14. Global Environmental Changes
The effects of climate change
All figures extracted from ZOÏ, Climate change in Central Asia: a visual synthesis, 2009

15. Central Asia
climate
Country trends
- Temperature increase
- Precipitation decrease
All figures extracted from ZOÏ, Climate change in Central Asia: a visual synthesis, 2009

17. Recommendations:
Re-activation of monitoring interrupted in the 90’s
1. In depth study of “strategic” glaciers and rivers (including climatic
parameters),
2. Basic study on a larger panel of glaciers and rivers,
3. Remote sensing monitoring of the remaining glaciers.
Specific research on permafrost and “rock glaciers”
- Monitoring
- Potential impact on geo-hazards and water resources
Geo-hazard assessment
- Short to medium term thread
- Early warning and civil engineering solutions

20. HICAP Background:
"Every Great Project Has a Prequel"
• In the beginning, HICIA, The "Himalayan
Climate Impact and Adaptation
Assessment"
• 2-year Feasibility Study (2008-10)
• CICERO, ICIMOD & GRID-Arendal
• CICERO and GRID´ s first project related to
the HKH
• Main objective:
Identify the human, economic, social and
environmental vulnerability factors and key
impacts related to climate change in the
HKH
Result – identified data gaps and needs.

21. Hindu Kush Himalaya region

22. HICAP Goal

25. Objectives
HICAP is a five-year programme (2011–2015) focused on four sub-
basins of major Himalayan river systems: two sub-basins in the
Brahmaputra and one each in the Indus and the Ganges.
The major objectives are:
•to reduce uncertainty through downscaling and customizing of
global climate change scenarios and develop water availability and
demand scenarios for parts of major river basins;
•to develop knowledge and enhance capacities to assess,
monitor, and communicate the impacts of and responses to climate
change (compounded with other drivers of change) on natural and
socioeconomic environments at local, national, and regional levels;
•to make concrete and actionable proposals for strategies
and policies, considering vulnerabilities, opportunities, and
potentials for adaptation, with particular reference to strengthening
the role of women and local communities.

27. Why Women in Adaptation?
Women are more vulnerable than men to
climate change as they face more social,
economic, and political barriers limiting
their coping capacity.
However, women’s responsibilities in
households and communities, and as
stewards of natural and household
resources, position them well to
contribute to strategies for adaptation to
changing climate and environment.

28. Outputs 2011

29. GEO-5 conclusions: Data Gaps
Research and data gaps
A number of research and data gaps identified
by GEO-5 need to be addressed in order to
track more accurately the state and trends of
the global environment. Data need to be
strengthened on issues such as freshwater
pollution, groundwater depletion,
land degradation and chemicals and
waste.
In addition, it is often difficult to compare the
situation in different countries
even when data are available, since many
countries follow their own national guidelines
when collecting them, rather than standard
international guidelines.

30. Mountain data needs
Water, snow and ice:
because the hydrological cycle will be enhanced under warmer climatic
conditions, the current distribution, seasonality, and amount of precipitation
may undergo significant changes in various geographical regions. The
consequences for river runoff are likely to affect not only the watersheds within
the mountains themselves, but also in the lowland regions that are heavily
dependent on this mountain resource.
Vegetation, forests, and biodiversity:
biodiversity in mountain areas encom- passes both natural and cultivated
species; these systems are all sensitive to climatic factors and are likely to have
different vulnerability thresholds ac- cording to the species, the amplitude, and
the rate of climatic change.

31. Mountain data needs
Health:
changing climates may lead to new distributions of vector-borne disease. A
particularly interesting example in the context of mountains and uplands is the
possible propagation of malaria as an indicator of climatic change.
Tourism / economic development:
over the last 25 years, tourism and recreation has been one of the fastest
growing industries worldwide. Tourism has both economic benefits for, and
potential adverse effects on, mountain environments and local mountain
communities.