Third District Political poll

Indiana University – Purdue University Fort Wayne  Department of Political Science 
2101 E. Coliseum Blvd.  Liberal Arts Building, Rm. 209  Fort Wayne, Indiana 46805 
(260) 481-6691 voice  (260) 481-6985 fax  downsa@ipfw.edu
NEWS RELEASE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: April 25, 2016
Contact: Andrew Downs, Assistant Professor of Political Science, 260-481-6691
Michael Wolf, Associate Professor of Political Science, 260-481-6898
Banks Leads, but Race Is Close1
Summary
Primary elections can be challenging to forecast because it is difficult to know who will show up
to the polls on primary Election Day. This is complicated when there are more than two credible
candidates. Among 400 likely third district Republican primary voters2
, Jim Banks (29.3%) has
a 6-point lead over Kip Tom (23.3%) and a 7.5 point lead over Liz Brown (21.8%) in a poll with
a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points (Table 1). The fact that 20.0% of the respondents
were undecided demonstrates that this race is not decided.
Table 1
If the election for the Republican nominee for United States House
of Representatives were today and you were standing in the voting
booth right now, would you vote for (NAMES ROTATED)...
Percent
Jim Banks 29.3
Mark Willard Baringer .5
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 21.8
Pam Galloway 4.8
Kevin Howell .5
Kip Tom 23.3
Don't know / Not sure (Voluntary response) 20.0
Total 100.0
1
Some of the columns or rows in the tables in this release may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
2
Question: On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being certain not to vote and 10 being certain to vote, how likely are you to
vote in the Republican primary election? Respondents had to respond 7 or higher to be included.

2
The results help inform where the candidates have support and who undecided respondents
might support.
1. Banks (29.3%) is leading with Tom (23.3%) in second and Brown (21.8%) in third (Table 1).
The difference in support is within the margin of error.
2. The strength of support for Banks (65.0%) and Tom (61.3%) was stronger than the support
for Brown (55.2%) (Table 3). One fifth to one quarter of the support for all of the front
runners is not strong. This suggests some volatility in the electorate even at this late date.
Brown may have more of a problem than Banks and Tom given the smaller percentage of
strong support that she has. Also, nearly 20 percent of her supporters are not sure how strong
their support for her is. This is five points higher than Banks and 6.6 points higher than Tom.
3. All of the front runners have a high percentage of support among self-identified strong
Republicans (Support from strong Republicans = Banks 83.7%; Brown 82.8%; Tom 80.0%)
(Table 5). Respondents who have not made up their minds tend to be more strongly
Republican (87.7%) than the respondents who have selected a candidate. This suggests that
the independents and Democrats who are voting in the Republican primary may have decided
to vote in that primary because of a specific candidate.
4. Almost six percent (5.5%) of the respondents who said they were voting in the Republican
primary said they were Democrats. This is a small percentage of voters, but Brown is doing
better among them then Banks and Tom.
5. Each of the front runners has support among independents. 81.3% of the independents
supporting Banks lean Republican while only 69.2% of the independents supporting Tom
lean Republican and 64.7% of the independents supporting Brown lean Republican (Table 7).
It could be argued that Tom and Brown have less support among Republican leaning
independents because they both are running as outsiders or anti-establishment candidates.
6. When the supporters of each of the front runners is broken down by gender, similar levels of
support are found (Table 10).
7. Nearly one quarter (24.1%) of male voters are undecided while only 16.4% of female voters
are undecided (Table 11).
8. Banks has leads among male respondents (26.7%) and female respondents (31.5%) (Table
11). Brown has the smallest share of the female vote (22.5%). This result may surprise
people. For many people there continues to be an expectation that female candidates will do
well among female voters.
9. Among their supporters Brown has the highest percentage of regular church attenders (64.4%
attending every week) (Table 12). In fact, just over 75 percent of her supporters attend
church every week or almost every week. Only 57.0% of Tom’s supporters and 49.6% of
Banks’ supporters attend church every week.
10. Those who attend religious services every week are equally divided among the front runners
(Table 13).
11. A majority of the respondents (61.3%) said that the tone of political campaigns makes no
difference in their desire to get involved in elections. Among the respondents who support
Tom, that percentage is 71.0 (Table 14). It is 64.1 percent for Banks and only 56.3 percent
for Brown. The fact that it is not making much of a difference could be that the tone of these
campaigns has been relatively positive featuring a number of biographical commercials. The
earned media activities have been relatively positive as well. The comparison commercials

3
(some would say negative) ads have shown up more recently and some of them have been
paid for by outside groups.
12. A majority of the respondents (55.8%) said they think it is more important for a politician to
stand firm in support of principles than to compromise. Nearly two thirds of the supporters
for Banks (65.8%) and Tom (62.4%) took this position (Table 16). Given the push in recent
years for candidates to stand firm and not compromise, it is not surprising to see high
percentages. What is surprising is that just under half (49.4%) of Brown’s supporters said
they thought it was more important for a politician to stand firm than to compromise.
13. Of the respondents who said they think it is more important for a politician to stand firm in
support of principles than to compromise, one third of them (34.5%) support Banks, 26.0%
support Tom, and only 19.3% support Brown (Table 17).
Tables and more detailed discussion can be found below.
How Strong is the Support?
Almost half of the respondents said that their support is strong, but almost one-third are not sure
how strong their support is (Table 2). This suggests that the race still is fluid.
Table 2
Would you say that your preference for this candidate is
strong or not strong?
Percent
Strong 49.0
Not strong 18.8
Total 100.0
Among the front-runners, Banks’ has the highest percentage of strong support (65.0%), but he is
followed closely by Tom (61.3%) (Table 3). Brown has the lowest percentage of strong support
among the front runners (55.2%).
Table 3
Would you say that your preference for this candidate is
strong or not strong?
Strong Not strong
Jim Banks 65.0% 20.5%
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 55.2% 25.3%
Kip Tom 61.3% 25.8%
Party Affiliation

4
The Indiana Code says that voters are to vote in the primary for which they cast the most votes in
the last election or the party for which they anticipate casting the most votes in the upcoming
election (IC 3-10-1-6). This sounds like a closed primary system, but it is virtually impossible to
prove what someone did or will do and so Indiana functions like an open primary system. This
is one of the things that complicates forecasting primary elections in Indiana.
In order to be included in this survey, the respondent had to say they would be voting in the
Republican primary (Table 4). Nearly six percent (5.5%) of the respondents who said they
would be voting in the Republican primary self-identified as Democrats. Just over 16 percent
(16.3%) self-identified as independent. The vast majority of the independents (75.0%) said that
they lean Republican, but nearly 19 percent (18.8%) said that they did not lean toward either
party.
Table 4
Party Affiliation Percent
Republican 78.3
Weak Republican 14.7
Strong Republican 83.1
Democrat 5.5
Weak Democrat 54.5
Strong Democrat 45.5
Independent 16.3
Lean Republican 75.0
Lean Democrat 4.7
Lean toward neither 18.8
Not surprisingly, all of the front runners have a large percentage of their supporters self-
identifying as strong Republicans (Table 5). The support for all three ranges from 80.0 percent
(Tom) to 83.7 percent (Banks). Perhaps more interesting is the fact that 87.7 percent of the
undecided voters self-identified as strong Republicans. This supports the idea that this race has
not been decided yet with this many strong Republicans still undecided.
Table 5
Percent of Strong and Weak Republicans Among Each Candidates’ Supporters
Strong
Republican
Weak
Republican
Don't know / Not sure
(Voluntary response)
Total
Jim Banks 83.7% 14.3% 2.0% 100.0%

5
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 82.8% 15.5% 1.7% 100.0%
Kip Tom 80.0% 16.0% 4.0% 100.0%
87.7% 10.8% 1.5% 100.0%
When the preferences of strong Republicans and weak Republicans are examined, two
interesting points emerge (Table 6). First, Banks has a larger lead among strong Republicans
than he does among all of the respondents who said they would be voting in the Republican
primary. Second, Tom, who has labeled himself not being a career politician, makes up ground
among weak Republicans and self-identified Republicans who do not see themselves as strong or
weak Republicans. These are small groups within the pool of likely Republican primary voters.
Table 6
Candidate Preference Among Strong and Weak Republicans
Strong
Republican
Weak
Republican
Jim Banks 31.5% 30.4% 28.6%
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 18.5% 19.6% 14.3%
Kip Tom 23.1% 26.1% 42.9%
21.9% 15.2% 14.3%
Independent voters often are the deciding factor in general elections. In the case of this primary
election, they also could play a significant role given how close the race is. Among the self-
identified Republicans who said they are supporting Banks, 81.3 percent identified themselves as
leaning Republican (Table 7). None of his support among independents came from self-
identified Democrats. Among the independents who said they are supporting Brown and Tom,
64.7 percent and 69.2 percent self-identified as leaning Republican respectively. Almost 12
percent (11.8%) of the support among independents that Brown has comes from self-identified
Democratic leaning voters. Tom’s independent supporters paint a third picture. In his case,
almost one quarter (23.1%) of the support he has among self-identified independents comes from
those who said they do not lean Republican or Democrat.
Table 7
Percent of Republican and Democratic Leaners Among Each Candidates’ Supporters
Lean
Republican
Lean
Democrat
Neither Don't know / Not sure
Total
Jim Banks 81.3% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0% 100.0%
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 64.7% 11.8% 17.6% 5.9% 100.0%
Kip Tom 69.2% 7.7% 23.1% 0.0% 100.0%

6
83.3% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 100.0%
Banks has a 4.2 point lead over Brown among self-identified independents who said they lean
Republican and an 8.3 point lead over Tom (Table 8). The front runners are doing equally well
among self-identified independents who said they do not lean in either direction. Brown has a
sizeable lead among the independents who said they lean Democrat (66.7%), but that is a very
small part of the respondents.
Table 8
Candidate Preference Among Independent Voters (by type of independent)
Lean
Republican
Lean
Democrat
Neither
Jim Banks 27.1% 0.0% 25.0%
Kip Tom 18.8% 33.3% 25.0%
20.8% 0.0% 16.7%
Gender, Attending Religious Services, and Educational Attainment
Just over half of the respondents to this poll were female (53.3%) (Table 9). Additionally, two-
thirds (66.1%) of the respondents said they attend religious services either weekly or almost
every week. One fifth (20.6%) of the respondents said they attend religious services a few times
a year or less frequently. Over half (51.3%) of the respondents have a college degree or attended
graduate school.
Table 9
Gender
Percent
Male 46.8
Female 53.3
Total 100.0
How often do you attend religious services?
Percent
Every week 54.3
Almost every week 11.8
Once or twice a month 9.3
A few times a year 10.8
Almost never 7.3

7
Never attend 2.5
Total 100.0
What is the highest level of education you have achieved?
Percent
Graduate school 18.3
College graduate 33.0
Some college 27.8
High school graduate or equivalent 17.5
Did not finish high school .8
Total 100.0
The front runners have nearly identical gender breakdowns among their supporters (Table 10).
All three have a majority of their support from females, ranging from 55.2% (Brown) to 57.3%
(Banks). What is interesting is that a much larger percentage of males (56.3%) than female
(43.8%) make up the undecided voters.
Table 10
Gender Breakdown of Supporters for Each Candidate
Male Female Total
Jim Banks 42.7% 57.3% 100.0%
Kip Tom 44.1% 55.9% 100.0%
56.3% 43.8% 100.0%
Banks is leading among male (26.7%) and female (31.5%) voters (Table 11). All of the
candidates do better among female respondents than male respondents. There does not appear to
be a gender advantage for Brown.
Table 11
Candidate Preference By Gender
Male Female
Jim Banks 26.7% 31.5%
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 20.9% 22.5%
Kip Tom 21.9% 24.4%
24.1% 16.4%

8
Among their supporters, Brown has the highest percentage of regular church attenders (Table
12). Three quarters of her supporters (75.9%) attend church every week or almost every week.
This percentage drops to 66.7% for Tom and 62.4% for Banks. Over 60 percent (62.6%) of the
undecided voters attend church every week or almost every week.
Table 12
Attendance of Religious Services By Supporters for Each Candidate
Every
week
Almost
every
week
Once or
twice a
month
A few
times a
year
Almost
never
Never
attend
Don't
know /
Not sure
(Voluntary
response)
Total
Jim Banks 49.6% 12.8% 13.7% 12.0% 6.0% .9% 5.1% 100.0%
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 64.4% 11.5% 2.3% 9.2% 8.0% 3.4% 1.1% 100.0%
Kip Tom 57.0% 9.7% 8.6% 9.7% 6.5% 3.2% 5.4% 100.0%
51.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 7.5% 2.5% 5.0% 100.0%
The three front runners have almost equal percentages of the respondents who attend church
every week (Table 13). The percentages range from 24.4 percent for Tom to 26.7 percent for
Banks. There is a noticeable difference among those who said they attend church almost every
week. Banks has the highest percentage of respondents who said they attend church almost
every week (31.9%). Brown (21.3%) and Tom (19.1%) have nearly identical percentages of the
respondents who said they attend church almost every week.
Table 13
Candidate Preference By Religious Service Attendance
Every
week
Almost
every
week
Once or
twice a
month
A few
times
a year
Almost
never
Never
attend
Don't know /
Not sure
(Voluntary
response)
Jim Banks 26.7% 31.9% 43.2% 32.6% 24.1% 10.0% 35.3%
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 25.8% 21.3% 5.4% 18.6% 24.1% 30.0% 5.9%
Kip Tom 24.4% 19.1% 21.6% 20.9% 20.7% 30.0% 29.4%
18.9% 19.1% 24.3% 20.9% 20.7% 20.0% 23.5%
There has been a great deal of conversation about the tone of campaigns in general these days.
Respondents were asked if the tone of political campaigns in their area made them more or less
interested in getting involved or if the tone made no difference. Among their supporters, the

9
front runners have similar percentages who are more interested in getting involved (Table 14).
Perhaps the most interesting finding is that 71.0 percent of Tom’s supporters said that the tone of
political campaigns in the area makes no difference to their interest in getting involved. This
challenges the assumption that Tom’s campaign as an outsider is bringing in new voters.
Table 14
Opinion of Tone of Campaigns Among Supporters of Each Candidate
More
interested
Less
interested
No
difference
Total
Jim Banks 18.8% 14.5% 64.1% 2.6% 100.0%
Elizabeth "Liz" Brown 19.5% 23.0% 56.3% 1.1% 100.0%
Kip Tom 17.2% 8.6% 71.0% 3.2% 100.0%
23.8% 17.5% 55.0% 3.8% 100.0%
Banks is doing best among the respondents who said they are more interested in getting involved
because of the tone of the campaigns (Table 15). Brown is doing the best among the respondents
who said they are less interested in getting involved because of the tone of the campaigns.
Brown also has the lowest percentage of those who are not sure what the effect of the tone is.
Table 15
Candidate Preference By Opinion of Tone of Campaigns
More
interested
Less
interested
No
difference
Jim Banks 27.2% 27.4% 30.6% 25.0%
Kip Tom 19.8% 12.9% 26.9% 25.0%
23.5% 22.6% 18.0% 25.0%
In recent years there have been many Republican candidates who have talked about the need to
stand on principle and not compromise. Respondents were asked whether it is more important
for politicians to be able to compromise to get things done or to stand firm in support of
principles. Approximately two thirds of the supporters for Banks (65.8%) and Tom (62.4%) said
they think it is more important for politicians to stand firm than compromise (Table 16).
Brown’s supporters were quite different. Not quite half (49.4%) of her supporters said it was
more important to stand firm. Approximately 40 percent (40.2%) of her supporters said that it
was more important for a politician to have the ability to compromise. This was ten to twenty
points higher than the totals for Banks and Tom. One third of the respondents who have not
decided who to support in the primary said they think it is more important for politicians to
compromise. This suggests that Brown may be able to pick up undecided voters.

10
Table 16
Desire for Compromise or Standing Firm Among Supporters for Each Candidate
Ability to
compromise
Willingness to
Stand firm
Total
Jim Banks 21.4% 65.8% 12.8% 100.0%
Kip Tom 29.0% 62.4% 8.6% 100.0%
33.8% 45.0% 21.3% 100.0%
Based on the findings presented in the preceding table, it is not surprising to find that Brown is
doing best among respondents who said they think it is more important for politicians to
compromise (Brown 27.6%; Tom 21.3%; Banks 19.7%) (Table 17). Banks holds a similar lead
among respondents who think it is more important for politicians to stand firm (Banks 34.5%;
Tom 26.0%; Brown 19.3%).
Table 17
Candidate Preference By Respondents’ Desire for Politicians Who Compromise or Stand Firm
Ability to
compromise
Willingness to
stand firm
Jim Banks 19.7% 34.5% 30.0%
Kip Tom 21.3% 26.0% 16.0%
21.3% 16.1% 34.0%
Statement of Methodology
Research Solution Center completed interviews with a random sample of 400 registered voters
who said they were very likely to vote3
in the 2016 Republican primary election in Indiana’s
third congressional district. The sample for this survey was purchased from National List. The
calling was done on April 13 – 19, 2016. The calls were made from 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM Eastern
on weekdays and 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM Eastern on Saturday. Seventy-six percent of the surveys
were completed on landlines and 24 percent were completed on mobile phones.
The margin of error associated with the 400 completed interviews of likely voters is 4.9 percent
at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that with a sample of 400 valid surveys of
3
Question: On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being certain not to vote and 10 being certain to vote, how likely are you to
vote in the Republican primary election? Respondents had to respond 7 or higher to be included.

11
registered voters, it can be said that if the survey was repeated 100 times, in 95 out of the 100
times, the research findings would, at most, vary by plus or minus 4.9 percent.
There were no weights applied to these results.
It should be noted that there are several possible sources of error that may influence the results of
this survey beyond the aforementioned sampling error. These include self-selection out of the
survey (i.e., refusing to be interviewed, refusing to answer a call from an unknown phone
number), question phrasing, question ordering, the tone conveyed by a questioner, alteration of
the data via weighting procedures, and the manner in which respondents were filtered out (for
example, determining who is a likely voter). Error that may result from these factors should be
kept in mind when reviewing the results of this survey.
Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics
The Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics is a non-partisan organization that helps the people
of Indiana understand the role of politics and government in their daily lives. By doing this The
Mike Downs Center hopes to encourage participation in political and public processes the same
way its namesake, Dr. Michael C. Downs, did for more than 34 years. The Mike Downs Center
is located on the campus of Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (IPFW).
####

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