ACC would be the biggest beneficiary of an improvement in the domestic economy due to its Pan-India presence and have one of the cheapest valuations compared to its peers. The recent modernization of Wadi and Chanda and upcoming commissioning of modernized Jamul plant should see improved efficiencies kicking in. Stock trades at EV/T of US$120 CY15E capacity, significantly lower compared to US$156 and US$160 of UTCEM and ACEM, respectively. We maintain our Buy rating with TP of Rs1,653 at EV/T of US$140 CY15E capacity of 34m tonnes.

1. Prabhudas ACC
Lilladher
CMP: Rs1,505 TP: Rs1,650 Rating: BUY MCap: Rs282.9bn
ACC would be the biggest beneficiary of an improvement in the domestic
economy due to its Pan-India presence and have one of the cheapest
valuations compared to its peers. The recent modernization of Wadi and
Chanda and upcoming commissioning of modernized Jamul plant should
see improved efficiencies kicking in. Stock trades at EV/T of US$120
CY15E capacity, significantly lower compared to US$156 and US$160 of
UTCEM and ACEM, respectively. We maintain our BUY rating with TP of
Rs1,653 at EV/T of US$140 CY15E capacity of 34m tonnes.
Key beneficiary of recovery in South and Maharashtra: From contraction
in demand, we expect to see a strong revival in Andhra Pradesh’s (AP’s)
demand, led by an end to the political uncertainty and bifurcation of the
state. Hence, stabilization of AP, strong demand environment in IT sector
and improved competitiveness of southern industries with the connectivity
to national electricity grid, would drive demand in the South. Stronger
demand in South, in turn, would keep prices in Maharashtra firm. We see
ACC as a big beneficiary of all these as they sell 40% of volumes in these
two regions.
Cost likely to reduce by Rs150/t with newer facilities: ACC replaced
outdated capacity of ~5m tonnes at Wadi (Karnataka) and Chanda
(Maharashtra) and also added 6m tonnes of new capacity at these
locations. However, due to weak market conditions in these markets, ACC
was unable to realise the benefit of lower operating costs from the new
facilities. We expect costs to be lower by Rs90/t on an aggregate level in
CY15, led by higher utilization at these units. We expect savings of
additional Rs60/t in CY16 with the upcoming modernized plant of 3.7mtpa
in Jamul. We see only an upward risk to our estimates due to cost savings,
primarily on account of increased usage of pet coke and commissioning of
captive coal mines.
Key Financials (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
Revenue (Rs m) 100,021 111,306 109,084 116,736 133,474
Growth (%) 21.1 11.3 (2.0) 7.0 14.3
EBITDA (Rs m) 16,861 19,690 14,027 14,470 21,329
PAT (Rs m) 10,209 13,305 9,002 9,385 14,289
EPS (Rs) 54.3 70.8 47.9 49.9 76.0
Growth (%) 4.3 30.3 (32.3) 4.3 52.3
Net DPS (Rs) 28.0 30.0 30.0 27.9 38.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Profitability & valuation
Y/e Dec CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
EBITDA margin (%) 16.9 17.7 12.9 12.4 16.0
RoE (%) 15.4 18.5 11.9 11.7 16.7
RoCE (%) 15.2 18.7 12.2 12.1 17.1
EV / sales (x) 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.9
EV / EBITDA (x) 15.4 12.9 18.4 18.4 12.1
PER (x) 27.7 21.3 31.4 30.1 19.8
P / BV (x) 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
Net dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.5
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Stock Performance
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute 8.8 8.4 44.2
Relative to Sensex 2.4 (9.3) 6.7
11/17/2014 42

2. Prabhudas Financials
Lilladher
ACC
Income Statement (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
Net Revenue 100,021 111,306 109,084 116,736 133,474
Direct Expenses 37,708 41,146 42,453 44,798 48,719
% of Net Sales 37.7 37.0 38.9 38.4 36.5
Employee Cost 5,743 6,179 6,630 7,212 7,861
% of Net Sales 5.7 5.6 6.1 6.2 5.9
SG&A Expenses 19,400 22,063 22,992 25,571 28,537
% of Net Sales 19.4 19.8 21.1 21.9 21.4
Other Expenses 20,308 22,228 22,983 24,685 27,027
% of Net Sales 20.3 20.0 21.1 21.1 20.2
EBITDA 16,861 19,690 14,027 14,470 21,329
Margin (%) 16.9 17.7 12.9 12.4 16.0
Depreciation 5,100 5,689 5,838 5,939 5,988
PBIT 11,761 14,001 8,189 8,531 15,341
Interest Expenses 969 1,147 517 488 534
PBT 15,053 14,410 12,136 12,837 19,629
Total tax 2,155 3,911 1,319 2,467 5,496
Effective Tax rate (%) 14.3 27.1 10.9 19.2 28.0
PAT 13,008 10,593 10,947 10,512 14,289
Extraordinary Gain/(Loss) 520 (2,460) (223) - -
Adjusted PAT 10,209 13,305 9,002 9,385 14,289
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Balance Sheet (Rs m)
Y/e Dec CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E
Share Capital 1,880 1,880 1,880 1,880 1,880
Reserves & Surplus 67,911 71,845 76,254 80,664 86,659
Shareholder's Fund 69,791 73,724 78,134 82,544 88,539
Preference Share Capital - - - - -
Total Debt 5,107 1,631 350 - -
Other Liabilities(net) 25 26 27 29 31
Deferred Tax Liability 5,238 5,226 5,128 5,642 6,623
Total Liabilities 80,161 80,606 83,640 88,215 95,193
Gross Block 100,322 103,994 105,867 108,976 142,867
Less: Depreciation 36,258 44,680 50,167 56,106 62,093
Net Block 64,065 59,314 55,700 52,870 80,773
Capital Work in Progress 4,408 5,083 12,236 25,977 -
Cash & Cash Equivalent 29,530 31,594 26,313 17,919 24,920
Total Current Assets 49,756 53,871 52,208 44,838 54,014
Total Current Liabilities 39,049 38,676 37,371 36,481 40,763
Net Current Assets 10,707 15,195 14,837 8,357 13,251
Other Assets - - - - -
Total Assets 80,161 80,606 83,640 88,215 95,193
Source: Company Data, PL Research
11/17/2014 43

3. Prabhudas Disclaimer
Lilladher
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400 018, India.
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
32.7%
49.5%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell
% of Total Coverage
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
16.8%
0.9%
BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months
Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12-months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12-months
Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1-month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1-month
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly
This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is
not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any
of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.
Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will
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