Motilal Oswal recommends Crompton Greaves, investor perception improves as promoter exits Consumer business

1. Satyam Agarwal (AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Amit Shah (Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3029 5126
24 April 2015
Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Crompton Greaves
CMP: INR164 TP: INR268 (+63%) Buy
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Promoter exiting from consumer business
CRG to receive brand royalty of INR6b; investor perception to improve
§ CRG’s promoter, Avantha Holdings is divesting its entire 34.4% stake in the
Consumer business, CGCEL to Advent and Temasek.
§ As part of the proposed deal, Advent and Temasek will pay INR20b to Avantha
Holdings for the shares and INR6b-7b to CGEL as brand royalty. The new
promoters will raise debt of INR6b-7b in CGCEL’s books for the royalty payment,
taking its enterprise value to INR64b.
§ We believe the entry of Advent and Temasek will lead to a focused approach for
the Consumer business and enable it to pursue aggressive growth opportunities.
§ CRG will receive a brand royalty payment. Also, the negative market perception
due to high proportion of its promoter’s shares being pledged will be quelled.
Consumer business to see renewed focus: On TTM basis, Consumer business
division has booked revenue of INR30b and net profit of INR2.6b (EPS of
INR4.1). It added 11,150 retailers in FY14 and now has 134,000 retailers in the
Distribution segment and 22,000 retailers in Rural segment. The Lighting
segment has gained market share of 25%. In Fans, market share has increased
from a low of 21% in FY11 to 26.6% in FY14, and in Pumps, market share
increased 50bp to 13.6% in FY14. In the Residential segment, the company
improved its leadership position, with market share of 27%. In our opinion, the
entry of Advent and Temasek will lead to focused business approach for the
consumer business and allow the business to pursue aggressive growth
opportunities.
Negative market perception owing to promoter share pledges to be quelled:
Over the last six months, CRG, including Avantha Holdings, has announced
multiple steps towards asset monetization: (1) Sold 8 acres land in Kanjurmarg
factory for INR3b in 2QFY15 – total land at the factory is now ~34 acres, of
which 22-24 acres is surplus and can be monetized, (2) CGEL is expected to be
listed by November 2015, (3) Avantha Power (powergen holdco; CRG holds
23.14% stake) has signed an MoU with Adani Power to divest 100% stake in
Korba power plant at an EV of over INR42b, and (v) Promoters selling 52m
shares in CRG, reducing stake to 34.4% (from 42.7% earlier). Successful
completion of the current stake sale deal will largely address the issue of
promoter share pledges in CRG, which stand at 66.1% (December 2014).
Maintain Buy: CRG's journey to emerge as a 'global corporation' from India
continues to face multiple 'growth pangs'. Phase-1 of its restructuring program,
encompassing European operations has been largely completed. In FY16, we
expect to witness fructification of the management’s efforts over the last two
years. Demerger of the consumer business will unlock shareholder value; asset
sale by promoters will address investor apprehensions on pledged shares. Buy
with a SOTP TP of INR268 (standalone business at 22x FY17E, power/Industrial
business at 16x FY17E, overseas business at 0.5x EV/Sales, Avantha 1x PBV).
BSE Sensex S&P CNX
27,438 8,305
Stock Info
Bloomberg CRG IN
Equity Shares (m) 626.8
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 102.8/1.6
52-Week Range (INR) 231/153
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 2/-15/-31
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 1022/5352
Free float (%) 65.6
Financial Snapshot (INR billion)
Y/E Mar 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales 138.6 140.0 156.9
EBITDA 6.8 9.1 12.1
Adj PAT 2.2 4.7 7.8
EPS(INR) 3.5 7.5 12.6
EPS Gr. (%) -9.9 113.5 67.5
BV/Sh. (INR) 64.0 70.6 80.6
RoE (%) 12.6 11.1 16.5
RoCE (%) 4.8 8.5 13.2
P/E (x) 46.7 21.9 13.1
P/BV (x) 2.6 2.3 2.0
Shareholding pattern (%)
Mar-15 Dec-14 Mar-14
Promoter 34.4 34.4 42.7
DII 31.0 30.9 23.2
FII 15.6 15.0 19.5
Others 19.1 19.7 14.6
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)

2. Crompton Greaves
24 April 2015 2
Avantha to exit from CGCEL
In a press release filed with the BSE, CRG has stated that Avantha Holdings proposes
to divest its entire 34.4% stake in Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited
(CGCEL) to one or more SPVs managed by Advent and Temasek for INR20b. Advent
and Temasek will raise debt of INR6b-7b on CGCEL’s books, which will be paid to
CRG for allowing CGCEL to use the Crompton brand, taking the enterprise value of
CGCEL to INR64b.
Consumer business to see renewed focus
On TTM basis, CGEL has booked revenue of INR30b and net profit of INR2.6b (EPS of
INR4.1). It added 11,150 retailers in FY14 and now has 134,000 retailers in the
Distribution segment and 22,000 retailers in Rural segment. The Lighting segment
has gained market share of 25%. In Fans, market share has increased from a low of
21% in FY11 to 26.6% in FY14, and in Pumps, market share increased 50bp to 13.6%
in FY14. In the Residential segment, the company improved its leadership position,
with market share of 27%. In our opinion, the entry of Advent and Temasek will lead
to focused business approach for the consumer business and allow the business to
pursue aggressive growth opportunities.
Exhibit 1: Consumer business financials (INR m)
3QFY14 4QFY14 FY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15
Revenues 6,620 7,599 28,985 8,611 7,431 7,232
PBT 750 897 3,329 1,077 893 860
PAT 534 638 2,367 732 608 586
PAT Margin 8.1% 8.4% 8.2% 8.5% 8.2% 8.1%
EPS 0.85 1.02 3.78 1.17 0.97 0.93
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 2: CRG has outperformed industry growth rates in each of the last three years
FY12 FY13 FY14
Industry CRG Industry CRG Industry CRG
Fans -2% 2% 15% 22% 10% 15%
Lighting 12% 17% 12% 13% 2% 12%
Pumps -8% -4% 6% 26% -10% flat
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 3: Product-wise revenue and Traded Goods (INR m)
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 4: Ad-spends witnessing an increased trend (INR m)
Source: MOSL, Company
5,790
12,848
9,010
1,817
3,555
4,617
4,980
1,383
Power driven
pumps
Electric fans
andventillation
equipments
Electric Lamps Appliances
Revenues (INR m) Cost of Purchase Goods (INR m)
156 211 256 227 345 474 691 766
1.6
1.9 1.9
1.4
1.7
2.2
2.7 2.7
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
AdSpend (INR M) Ad(% of Consumer Rev)

3. Crompton Greaves
24 April 2015 3
Exhibit 5: Consumer business product-wise revenue (INR m)
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Fans and Ventilation equipments 6,032 7,645 9,097 9,122 11,138 12,848
Electric Lamps 4,636 4,923 5,703 6,667 7,689 9,010
Power driven Pumps 2,794 3,854 5,217 5,019 5,869 5,790
Appliances 210 683 969 1,211 2,120 1,817
Total 13,672 17,105 20,986 22,019 26,816 29,465
Source: MOSL, Company
Asset monetization to drive value unlocking
CRG, including Avantha Holdings, has recently announced multiple steps towards
asset monetization, and several of the transactions are in advanced stages.
n Land sale at Kanjurmarg: CRG has sold 8 acres of land at its Kanjurmarg factory
for INR3b in 2QFY15. We understand that the total land at the factory is now
~34 acres, of which 22-24 acres is surplus and can be monetized.
n Consumer business demerger and now, promoter stake sale: The promoter,
Avantha Holdings proposes to divest its entire 34.4% in CGCEL to one or more
SPVs managed by Advent and Temasek for INR20b.
n MoU for sale of Korba power plant: Avantha Power (powergen holdco; CRG’s
stake 23.14%) has signed an MoU with Adani Power to divest 100% stake in
Korba power plant. The enterprise value is over INR42b. The first unit of 600MW
at Korba was commissioned in March 2014.
n Jhabua Power sale discussions with Tata Power-ICICI Ventures consortium:
Media articles state that there are serious negotiations to divest 1.3GW of
Jhabua Power with Tata Power-ICICI Ventures consortium. Avantha Power is
executing two power projects at Korba and Jhabua (capacity of 2.5GW) and
another 1.3GW is under planning at Gujarat. The above transactions will largely
complete the exit of Avantha Group from powergen business. Avantha Power
had raised USD125m from KKR (stake ~19%) through structured instruments.
Successful completion will largely address the share pledge issue
n Increased investments in Avantha Power had led to higher promoter share
pledge in CRG at 66.1% (December 2014). Besides, continued need for fund
infusion has remained an important area of discomfort for investors.
n CRG had invested INR2.3b as equity in Avantha Power (stake of 23.1%), and thus
the direct financial commitment was not meaningful.
n Successful exit from the powergen business and stake sale in Consumer business
will address liquidity constraints and largely resolve the issue of pledged shares,
in our opinion.
Exhibit 6: CRG – promoter shares pledged (%)
Source: MOSL, Company
5.1
34.7
47.9
61.6 64.2 68.3
54.3 57.5 59.2 61.4 66.1
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15

4. Crompton Greaves
24 April 2015 4
Financials and valuations
Income statement (INR Million)
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales 91,409 100,051 112,486 120,944 134,806 138,570 140,008 156,932
Change (%) 4.6 9.5 12.4 7.5 11.5 2.8 1.0 12.1
Raw Materials 57,966 64,980 76,850 83,461 91,353 94,431 98,302 107,845
Staff Cost 11,131 11,811 14,662 17,405 19,521 19,400 18,560 19,416
Other Mfg. Expenses 9,542 9,822 12,937 16,247 17,113 17,911 14,035 17,549
EBITDA 12,770 13,438 8,036 3,832 6,820 6,828 9,112 12,121
% of Net Sales 14.0 13.4 7.1 3.2 5.1 4.9 6.5 7.7
Depreciation 1,551 1,936 2,600 2,029 2,621 2,642 2,547 2,669
Interest 428 352 567 955 1,366 930 530 454
Other Income 1,100 1,142 628 1,000 2,115 1,440 1,233 1,458
EO Items (as rep.) 352 -381 0 -1,207 0 2,675 0 0
PBT 12,243 11,910 5,497 640 4,947 7,371 7,268 10,456
Tax 3,650 3,100 1,821 1,009 2,361 2,534 2,605 2,623
Rate (%) 29.8 26.0 33.1 157.6 47.7 34.4 35.8 25.1
Reported PAT 8,593 8,810 3,676 -369 2,587 4,837 4,663 7,834
Extra-ordinary Inc.(net) 352 -381 0 -2,287 0 2,675 0 0
Adjusted PAT 8,241 9,191 3,676 1,918 2,587 2,162 4,663 7,834
Minority Int 6.0 76.5 59.9 7.3 -143.4 38.7 34.0 34.0
Consolidated PAT 8,247 9,268 3,736 1,927 2,443 2,200 4,697 7,868
Change (%) 47.3 12.4 -59.7 -48.4 26.8 -9.9 113.5 67.5
Balance Sheet (INR Million)
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Share Capital 1,283 1,283 1,283 1,283 1,254 1,254 1,254 1,254
Reserves 23,760 31,464 34,826 34,332 35,192 38,876 42,990 49,243
Net Worth 25,043 32,747 36,109 35,615 36,446 40,130 44,244 50,496
Loans 5,010 3,955 9,849 18,515 21,930 19,843 16,126 14,958
Deffered Tax Liability 49 160 -122 -1,681 -1,532 -1,426 -1,162 -1,162
Minority Interest 43 157 157 95 118 118 118 118
Capital Employed 30,145 37,019 45,992 52,544 56,962 58,665 59,325 64,410
Gross Fixed Assets 29,858 37,805 44,087 53,424 59,233 59,198 56,393 57,733
Less: Depreciation 17,234 19,490 23,005 24,726 26,825 28,915 29,349 32,290
Net Fixed Assets 12,623 18,315 21,083 28,699 32,408 30,284 27,044 25,443
Capital WIP 1,137 1,102 1,493 1,965 2,184 2,677 5,473 7,973
Investments 5,536 6,747 7,864 7,907 2,989 8,948 12,892 19,086
Curr. Assets 41,018 45,646 55,343 59,807 69,168 66,798 63,978 70,360
Inventory 10,412 11,893 12,233 16,367 16,714 17,307 16,823 18,416
Debtors 21,463 25,427 31,432 31,605 35,913 36,748 36,360 40,172
Cash & Bank Balance 6,688 2,984 4,976 5,834 8,150 4,679 2,998 3,343
Loans & Advances 2,455 5,342 6,702 6,002 8,392 8,063 7,798 8,430
Current Liab. & Prov. 30,170 34,790 40,186 45,834 49,787 50,043 50,061 58,451
Creditors 16,098 18,585 21,076 24,618 27,737 27,310 27,904 31,876
Other Liabilities 10,469 12,148 15,319 16,994 17,985 18,597 18,155 22,275
Provisions 3,603 4,058 3,791 4,222 4,064 4,136 4,002 4,300
Net Current Assets 10,849 10,856 15,157 13,973 19,381 16,755 13,917 11,909
Application of Funds 30,145 37,020 45,993 52,544 56,961 58,665 59,325 64,410
E: MOSL Estimates; Consolidated Financials

5. Crompton Greaves
24 April 2015 5
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Standalone EPS 9.0 10.8 7.9 6.9 8.3 8.2 10.0 12.9
Consolidated EPS 13.1 14.8 6.0 3.1 3.9 3.5 7.5 12.6
Growth (%) 46.5 12.5 -59.7 -48.4 26.8 -9.9 113.5 67.5
Cash EPS 15.3 17.3 9.8 6.2 8.3 7.7 11.5 16.8
Book Value 39.0 51.0 56.3 55.5 58.2 64.0 70.6 80.6
DPS 1.3 2.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 2.1 1.7 2.2
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 15.3 23.7 20.7 20.1 11.3 20.0 20.0 20.0
Valuation (x)
P/E (standalone) 22.0 21.7 22.7 19.9 16.4 12.7
P/E (consolidated) 12.5 27.5 48.5 46.7 21.9 13.1
Cash P/E 18.4 19.4 16.7 14.1 11.3
EV/EBITDA 13.6 19.4 16.4 11.6 8.1
EV/Sales 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6
Price/Book Value 5.1 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.0
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.3
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE 39.6 30.5 10.7 -1.0 7.2 12.6 11.1 16.5
RoCE 30.9 28.1 9.8 2.8 6.0 4.8 8.5 13.2
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days) 42 93 102 95 97 97 95 93
Inventory (Days) 42 43 40 49 45 46 44 43
Creditors. (Days) 64 68 68 74 75 72 73 74
Asset Turnover (x) 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x) 0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1
Cash Flow Statement (INR Million)
Y/E March 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
PBT before EO Items 11,891 12,291 5,497 1,848 4,947 4,696 7,268 10,456
Add : Depreciation 1,551 1,936 2,600 2,029 2,621 2,642 2,547 2,669
Interest 428 352 567 955 1,366 930 530 454
Less : Direct Taxes Paid 3,650 3,100 2,495 2,177 2,211 2,428 2,341 2,623
(Inc)/Dec in WC -125 -3,715 -2,310 2,046 -3,092 -844 1,156 2,353
CF from Operations 10,094 7,765 3,859 4,701 3,631 4,996 9,160 13,310
EO Income 352 -381 0 -1,207 0 2,675 0 0
CF from Oper. incl. EO Items 10,446 7,384 3,859 3,494 3,631 7,671 9,160 13,310
(Inc)/Dec in FA -1,526 -7,593 -5,758 -10,117 -6,550 -1,012 -2,102 -3,568
(Pur)/Sale of Investments -3,864 -1,211 -1,117 -43 4,919 -5,960 -3,943 -6,194
CF from Investments -5,389 -8,805 -6,875 -10,160 -1,631 -6,971 -6,046 -9,762
(Inc)/Dec in Net Worth -481 767 725 709 -1,147 415 702 34
(Inc)/Dec in Debt -2,173 -1,055 5,894 8,666 3,415 -2,087 -3,718 -1,168
Less : Interest Paid 428 352 567 955 1,366 930 530 454
Dividend Paid 944 1,644 1,044 897 587 1,568 1,251 1,615
CF from Fin. Activity -4,025 -2,284 5,008 7,524 316 -4,170 -4,796 -3,203
Inc/Dec of Cash 1,032 -3,705 1,992 857 2,316 -3,470 -1,682 345
Add: Beginning Balance 5,656 6,688 2,984 4,976 5,834 8,150 4,679 2,998
Closing Balance 6,688 2,988 4,981 5,833 8,150 4,679 2,998 3,343
E: MOSL Estimates

6. Crompton Greaves
24 April 2015 6
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Disclosure of Interest Statement CROMPTON GREAVES
§ Analyst ownership of the stock No
§ Served as an officer, director or employee No
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