Presentation at Dutch Demography Day 2016 Utrecht, Netherlands on 23 November 2016 Session 9: Internal Migration & Urbanization Chair: Clara Mulder ABSTRACT (submitted 2 month before the actual presentation): Even though all European countries experience population ageing, there are differences in the rate of ageing across countries and regions. A decline in the share of the working age population can be expected to have a downward effect on economic growth. Thus differences in population ageing across regions may affect economic prospects. One can distinguish two contrasting hypotheses about regional differences in population ageing. First, it seems reasonable to expect convergence in ageing at the end of the Demographic Transition in Europe: European countries move along the Demographic Transition path with varying timing and pace, and the differences should diminish by the end of the process. Alternatively, the process of urbanization is likely to contribute to a divergent pattern of ageing: Urbanized regions tend to attract population at working ages, while rural regions are left with a higher proportion of people out of the labor market. We examine whether urbanization lead to diverging regional developments of population structures in Europe. We analyze population dynamics of the 261 NUTS-2 regions of EU-27 over the period 2003-2013. We use the methodological approach of convergence analysis, quite recently brought to demography from the field of economic research.

1. Urbanization
and regional difference
in ageing in Europe

2. Introduction
We investigate how regional differences in ageing develop
over time in Europe
The specific interest lies in the effect of urban/rural divide
on convergence in ageing
We apply the methodological framework of convergence
analysis

3. Introduction : two concepts of convergence

4. Introduction
We investigate how regional differences in ageing develop
over time in Europe
The specific interest lies in the effect of urban/rural divide
on convergence in ageing
We apply the methodological framework of convergence
analysis
Measure variable is the Share of working age population
(population aged 15-64 to total population)

5. The two alternative hypotheses
H1: convergence in ageing
It seems reasonable to expect convergence in ageing at the end
of the Demographic Transition in Europe: countries move along
the Demographic Transition path with varying timing and pace,
and the differences should diminish by the end of the process

6. Asynchronous demographic dividend in Europe
UN Population Division. (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
Retrieved from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/

7. Subregions: the huge difference
Sothern and Western Europe leveled; Eastern Europe diverged
first, then started to converge towards the rest of Europe

8. Subregions: decomposition of Theil’s T

9. The two alternative hypotheses
H1: convergence in ageing
It seems reasonable to expect convergence in ageing at the end
of the Demographic Transition in Europe: countries move along
the Demographic Transition path with varying timing and pace,
and the differences should diminish by the end of the process
H2: divergence in ageing
The process of urbanization is likely to contribute to a divergent
pattern of ageing: Urbanized regions tend to attract population
at working ages, while rural regions are left with a higher
proportion of people out of the labor market

10. Urban / Rural typology of NUTS-2 regions
De Beer, J., Erf, R., & Huisman, C. (2012). The growth of the working age
population: differences between rural and urban regions across Europe
(NEUJOBS No. D 8.1). The Hague: NIDI.
http://www.neujobs.eu/publications/working-papers/growth-working-age-population-differences-between-rural-and-urban-region
Official Eurostat typology of urban/rural
region exists only for NUTS-3 level of
administrative division
The vast majority of data is aggregated at
NUTS-2 level of administrative division

11. Urban / Rural typology of NUTS-2 regions
De Beer, J., Erf, R., & Huisman, C. (2012). The growth of the working age
population: differences between rural and urban regions across Europe
(NEUJOBS No. D 8.1). The Hague: NIDI.
http://www.neujobs.eu/publications/working-papers/growth-working-age-population-differences-between-rural-and-urban-region

12. Empirical cumulative density
Convergence in the upper half of the distribution; divergence
in the lower half of the distribution. Strangely, small difference

13. SPLIT BY SUBREGIONS
apparently, there is some convergence

14. Decomposition of Theil’s T

15. Conclusions
The differences between subregions of Europe contribute to
divergence in ageing in the 1st part of the study period; the
convergent developments begin in the 2nd subperiod.
H1 supported
Contrary to our aspirations, urban/rural differences do not
lead to divergence in population ageing.
H2 not supported
To challenge further our research, there is “baseline”
divergence in population ageing at the end of the study
period, that is not explained by the differences between
subregions or urban/rural divide

16. NIDI is an institute of the Royal Netherlands
Academy of Arts and Sciences KNAW and is
affliated to the University of Groningen
www.nidi.nl
thank you
ILYA KASHNITSKY
kashnitsky@nidi.nl
ilya.kashnitsky@gmail.com
JOOP DE BEER
LEO VAN WISSEN

17. Subregions: decomposition of Theil’s T

18. sub
urb
/
rur