1. CFA Institute Research Challenge
San Diego, CA - Regional
University of San Diego
San Diego, CA
Jamie Arnold
Ike Ekeh
Joe LaBarbera
Louis Lukondi
Harsha Musthyala
2. Executive Summary
2015 Highlights
• Hired 57 new employees
• Acquired GT85
• $75M share buyback plan
• Operations extend to over 61
countries
Market Profile
Closing Price $97.44
52-Week High / Low $104.99 / $80.15
Average Volume (3M) 67,676
Diluted Shares Out. 14,461,000
Float 13.91M
Liquidity
$97.39-$98.76 Bid-Ask
Spread
Short Interest as a % of S/O 2.55%
Market Cap $1.49B
Dividend Yield 1.61%
Beta 0.8
EV / Revenue 13.2x
EV / EBITDA 23.1x
FCFF / Share 22.8x
Institutional Holdings 72.59%
Insider Holdings 3.84%
97.440002
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
PRICEPERSHARE($)
WD-40 Weekly Stock Price
89.88
3. • Founded 1953
• 2 Product Categories
• Maintenance
• Homecare and Cleaning
• 3 Regions
• Americas
• EMEA
• Asia-Pacific
• Low debt capital structure
• Goals:
• Double Revenue
• 55/30/25
• Growth in China
$333,306 $337,825 $320,883
$44,844 $45,172 $47,665
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
August 31, 2015 August 31, 2014 August 31, 2013
Revenue By Category
Mainenance Products Homecare and Cleaning Products
$187,344 $180,806 $180,544
$136,847 $151,368 $137,360
$53,959 $50,823 $50,644
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
August 31, 2015 August 31, 2014 August 31, 2013
Revenue by Region
Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific
Business Description
4. 0
2
4
6
8
Threat of New Entrant
Threat of Substitute Products
Bargaining Power of CustomersBargaining Power of Suppliers
Intensity of Competition
Porter's 5 Forces Analysis
- Intense industry competition
due to price sensitivity
- Threat of substitution
internationally may arise
- Strong brand loyalty will fend
off new entrant threat locally
Industry Overview
5. U.S. Demand
Demographics
Construction
& Skilled
Traders
At-Home
“Non-
Enthusiast”
At-Home
Doer-
Enthusiast
Maintenance
Repair &
Overhaul
Majority of MUP sales come
from end-users in workshops
8 out of 10 U.S. households have
at least one can of WD-40 MUP
in-home
EMEA Region
GERMANY is the 2nd largest DIY
market in the world and an area in
which the company sees future
expansion
Asia-Pacific Region
The company predicts that the
target demographic will be
commercial use in
manufacturing
Industry Overview
6. Competitive Positioning – MUP:
- Prime shelf space
- Large selection of size
- Preferred by customers
according to store
representatives
Tri-Flow by Sherwin Williams
- Largest Direct MUP competitor
- Sold at a premium
- Smaller size selection
Industry Overview
7. Competitive Positioning – Specialty Products:
• Liquid Wrench is the largest specialty lubricant
competitor
• As with other competitors, it is sold at a premium
to WD-40 products
• Larger selection of specialty products relative to competitors
• Strong brand recognition places WD-40 specialty products at the
top of consumer choice list
***WD-40 has recently purchased GT85, a well established bike lubricant company
based in the U.K. which will accelerate WD-40”s expansion in the EMEA market
Industry Overview
8. Investment Summary
SWOT
Strengths Weaknesses
ThreatsOpportunities
• Strong brand recognition
• Low input costs
• Well controlled debt use
• Short lead time for product changes (2-5
months)
• Currency translation issues; no hedging
• Weak market penetration in Latin America &
Canada
• Highly competitive market with extreme price
sensitivity
• Shift to DTC/online companies less need for
distribution channel
• Low interest rates on credit facility cash for
future projects and/or share buybacks
• Potential divesture of “Homecare and Cleaning”
products cash for further investments GT85
product purchase
• Strengthening of the dollar and pound
against the Euro ( > 1/3 sales from EMEA
region)
• Weak brand recognition in Asia-Pacific
region coupled with relatively soft
regulation on intellectual property
infringement on WDFC formula
11. Rating Methodology
Executive Management - STRONG
Board of Directors - STRONG
Takeover Defense - STRONG
Rights of Shareholders - MEDIUM
Disclosure and Transparency - MEDIUM
Corporate Governance
12. Financial Analysis
Debt Analysis:
- No long-term debt
-108 mil revolving credit
Total liabilities/ MV of Equity:
Projected ratio of 0.165
EBITDA margin:
Approximately 22% against expected 25%
- 25% seems over-achieving
- Unless new sales come in or growth in sales
in China
14. Relative Valuation
Valuation Statistics Capitalization Enterprise Value / Enterprise Value /
Share Equity Enterprise Revenue(1) EBITDA(1) P / E Multiple(1)
Company Name Price Value(1) Value(1) LTM 12/31/15 12/31/16 LTM 12/31/15 12/31/16 LTM 12/31/15 12/31/16
Clorox CLX $127.89 $16,555.00 $18,461.00 3.24 x 3.26 x 3.24 x 14.84 x 15.77 x 14.78 x 24.7 x 24.7 x 26.0 x
Church & Dwight CHD $89.51 $11,737.00 $12,507.00 3.68 x 3.68 x 3.60 x 16.13 x 16.13 x 15.23 x 29.2 x 29.2 x 25.6 x
Spectrum Brands SPB $93.26 $5,538.00 $9,548.00 1.97 x 1.97 x 1.87 x 12.95 x 12.96 x 10.40 x 31.5 x 31.5 x 19.2 x
Colgate-Palmolive CL $67.22 $60,010.00 $65,544.00 4.09 x 4.09 x 4.31 x 14.95 x 14.95 x 14.88 x 44.2 x 44.2 x 24.3 x
Maximum $127.89 $60,010 $65,544 4.1 x 4.1 x 4.3 x 16.1 x 16.1 x 15.2 x 44.2 x 44.2 x 26.0 x
75th Percentile 101.92 27,419 30,232 3.8 x 3.8 x 3.8 x 15.2 x 15.9 x 15.0 x 34.7 x 34.7 x 25.7 x
Median $91.39 $14,146 $15,484 3.5 x 3.5 x 3.4 x 14.9 x 15.4 x 14.8 x 30.3 x 30.3 x 24.9 x
25th Percentile 83.94 10,187 11,767 2.9 x 2.9 x 2.9 x 14.4 x 14.5 x 13.7 x 28.0 x 28.0 x 23.0 x
Minimum 67.22 5,538 9,548 2.0 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 13.0 x 13.0 x 10.4 x 24.7 x 24.7 x 19.2 x
WD-40 WDFC $105.80 $1,523.00 $1,529.00 4.1 x 4.1 x 3.9 x 20.8 x 20.8 x 19.6 x 33.7 x 33.7 x 31.5 x
15. Implied Equity Value and Share Price EV/Sales LTM
Enterprise Value $1,296.3
Less: Total Debt (125.0)
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 102.5
Implied Equity Value $1,273.8
Dilluted Shares Out 14.6
Implied Share Price $87.25
Implied Equity Value and Share Price EV/EBITDA LTM
Enterprise Value $1,093.8
Less: Total Debt (125.0)
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 102.5
Implied Equity Value $1,071.3
Implied Share Price 14.6
Implied Share Price $73.37
$87.25
$73.37
EV / Sales LTM
EV / EBITDA LTM
Relative Valuation
16. DCF Assumptions
Revenue Breakdown by Geography
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Total Revenue Growth 2.77% 3.19% 3.51% 3.73% 3.60%
The Americas
Multi-purpose maintenance products 4.24% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.00%
Homecare and cleaning products -6.42% -6.42% -5.00% -5.00% -4.75%
Europe
Multi-purpose maintenance products 2.18% 2.50% 2.60% 2.70% 2.50%
Homecare and cleaning products -4.46% -4.46% -3.00% -3.00% -3.00%
Asia-Pacific
Multi-purpose maintenance products 6.50% 6.50% 6.25% 6.25% 6.00%
Homecare and cleaning products 2.94% 2.94% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
NOPAT $54.63 $59.10 $62.59 $66.39 $67.26
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 1.98 2.04 2.11 2.19 2.27
Less: Capital Expenditures -4.10 -4.10 -4.10 -4.10 -4.10
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital -1.83 -1.89 -1.95 -2.03 -2.10
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $50.68 $55.16 $58.65 $62.45 $63.33
WACC 8.33% 8.33% 8.33% 8.33% 8.33%
Discount Period 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
Discount Factor 0.9231 0.8521 0.7866 0.7261 0.6703
Present Value of Free Cash Flow $46.79 $47.00 $46.13 $45.35 $42.45
Capital Structure
Equity 157,900
Debt 118,000
Total 275,900
Cost of Equity 8.73%
Weight E 93%
Prime Rate 4.50%
Weight 7%
Tax Rate 32%
WACC 8.33%
LT WACC 8.50%
17. DCF Assumptions
Enterprise Value Multiple Method
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $227.7
Terminal Value
Terminal Year EBITDA (2020EE) $101.2
Exit Multiple 14.9x
Terminal Value $1,507.6
Discount Factor 0.6703
Present Value of Terminal Value $1,010.5
% of Enterprise Value 81.6%
Enterprise Value $1,238.3
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value $1,238.3
Less: Total Debt 118.0
Plus: Cash and Cash
Equivalents 102.5
Implied Equity Value $1,458.8
Diluted Shares Out 14.6
Implied Share Price $99.91
Gordon Growth Method
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $227.7
Terminal Value
Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2020EE) $63.3
Terminal WACC 8.5%
Perpetuity Growth Rate 2.5%
Terminal Value 1055.55
Implied Multiple 16.67
Enterprise Value $1,283.27
Less: Total Debt 118.0
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 102.5
Implied Equity Value $1,267.77
Implied Share Price $86.83
$93.97
19. Recommendation
Pros
• Strong Brand
• Low debt
structure
• Acquisition of
GT85
Cons
• Increased margins
result of
temporarily low
raw material costs
• Decreased sales
$89.88
HOLD