Presentation ot OECD and HSE conference on Foresight for Grand Challenges

1. Foresight for Grand Challenges:
Grand Challenges for Foresight.
Ian Miles
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012 Higher School of Economics Moscow 2012
www.hse.ru

2. Grand Challenges
• Water security and vulnerability
• Energy security and vulnerability
• Health, illness, well being 21 Grand Challenges –
• Sustainability and climate change major problem
• Ageing and demographic issues areas, where
• Food security and culture interdisciplinary research is
• Globalization and localization required- for EU identified
• Social cohesion and diversity in “ERA Toolkit” at
• Technological security, hazard & risk
• Consumption and behavioural change http://community.iknowfutures.eu/
• Innovation, knowledge & technology Globally, pervasive
• Work-life balance and mental health problems include: Climate
• Science, technology, ethics Change; Demographics/
Multi- • Crime, security, justice Ageing/ Health; Security of
disciplinary • Governance, democracy, citizenship Water/Energy/Food
Problems • Coexistence and conflict Supplies.
Multi- • Social pathologies and ethics Grand Challenges involve
Stakeholder • Social exclusion, poverty, affluence not so much Grand
Responses • Economic prosperity and dynamics Solutions, as
• Urban and rural dynamics Great
• Education and skills dynamics Responses
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

3. Grand Solutions - technological
In many cases, a large part of the Social and economic
problem reflects current modes causes or impacts
of use of available technology of challenge
Major
Grand
Technological
Challenges
Innovation
Changing
or sustaining The problem could be ameliorated
social and or forestalled through prospective
economic practices modes of use of new technology
If current technologies contribute to, or cannot cope with, problems
– then innovate our way around them – Grand Solutions.
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

4. Techno-Optimism
Change our sources of energy
Social and economic
causes or impacts
of challenge
Major
Grand
Technological
Challenges
Innovation
Changing
or sustaining
Geoengineer the symptoms
social and
economic practices
Major transitions may not require dramatically new technologies -
likewise for “disruptive innovations”
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

5. Problems with Tech Fixes
Technology trajectories Social and economic
liable to be driven by other causes or impacts
factors: ideal unrealised. of challenge
Adoption of technologies may
Major
Grand
result in rebound effects
Technological
Challenges
Underlying drivers of GC may
continue to accumulate or Innovation
accelerate Changing
or sustaining
Failure to address “side- social and
effects” and other uses economic practices
Transition to major new technologies is often a slow process, with
many features where it is difficult to anticipate, or to use anticipations.
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

6. Grand Challenges
Dialogues, kno
Situations that wledge fusion
transcend across multiple
single disciplines
disciplines
Complex Deeper and
interaction of more shared
processes at understanding
different levels of “boundary
areas”
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

7. Grand Challenges: Great Responses,
rather than Grand Solutions
Grand Understanding
Challenges Dialogues, kno
Situations that wledge fusion
transcend across multiple
single disciplines
disciplines
Demand
Responses that Alignment of
involve multiple action across
actions multiple
Great stakeholders
Responding
Responses
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

8. Grand Challenges and Great Responses
Analysis of Grand Challenge Communication among
and development Dialogues, kno translation of
experts and
trajectories involved understandings into
Situations that wledge fusion
rationales for action
transcend across multiple
single disciplines
disciplines
Responses that Alignment of
involve multiple action across
actions multiple
Specification of Action Mix
Envisioning interactions and stakeholdersstakeholders and
Communication with
among and
Outcomes identification of features of
Contingencies and Risks action
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

9. GCs are “Wicked Problems”
C. West Churchman.
Multiple 1967. "Guest Editorial“
disciplines Management Science
Vol. 14, No. 4
Grand Multiple
Multiple
Policy
Actions Challenge Actors
H. Rittel and M. Webber;
1973, "Dilemmas in a
Multiple General Theory of Planning,"
Stake- Policy Sciences, Vol. 4 pp.
holders 155–169,
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

10. Great Solutions require alignment
Multiple
disciplines
Alignment
of agents Multiple
Multiple
Policy
Actions across Actors
groups
Multiple
Stake-
holders
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

11. Alignment takes various forms and
requires various approaches
Multiple
disciplines
Alignment of
knowledge
Alignment
of agents Multiple
Multiple
Policy
Actions within Actors
groups
Alignment of In each case there is
action uncertainty and learning
Multiple over time: thus need
Stake- scope for ongoing
holders experimentation and
adjustment
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

12. Technological Responses
• Major shifts in technological regime may not
involve radical new technologies
• Disruptive Innovations* may involve changing
business models etc – more a matter of
quantitative than qualitative change in
technology
• But revolutionary technologies by definition
underpin disruptive technological innovations
* Clayton M. Christensen (1997), The Innovator's Dilemma, Boston, Mass:
Harvard Business School Press
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

13. Revolutionary technologies
New • Displacement of existing
Heartland technological regimes
Technologies • Rise of new industrial sectors
New
• Transformation of costs
Processes and • New functionality
Products
• New entrants, intruders from
New Business other industries
Models • Change in market structures
and consumption patterns
Freeman, Perez, etc.; cf C. Perez, (1983) “Structural Change and Assimilation of
New Technologies” Futures 15 no 5 pp357-375
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

14. Forecasting Technological
Revolutions is also a Wicked Problem
Pervasive Technologies preceded by Pervasive
Uncertainties
New Heartland Technologies
Response from Incumbents
Combinations of Knowledge Rate of Development
Risks and Hazards
(technologies)
From Forecasting
Application Areas
to Foresight
Combinations of Knowledge Development and Diffusion
Demand and Modes of Use
Reinvention Changing Practices
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

15. At Least Two Wicked Problems
Disruptive
Grand Technologies as
Challenges Multiple, Key to Great
related,
ongoing,
Solutions
embedded,,
Foresight
activities
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

16. Knowledge can be brought to bear:
but much remains underdeveloped
Knowledge of Dynamics of Technological Change:
Sociotechnical Constituencies, Product Cycles, etc.
New Heartland Technologies
Knowledge of Social and
Combinations of Knowledge Rate of Development
Risk Assessment and
Economic Dynamics
Management
Application Areas
Combinations of Knowledge Development and Diffusion
Demand and Modes of Use
Reinvention Changing Practices
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

17. Grand Challenges for Foresight
Problems of
Engagement and
Translation, Legitimacy
Outreach
and Expertise
Aligning
Narratives
Political Institutions Advanced Concepts
and Policy Cycles and Methods
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

18. Some elements of a Great
Response for Foresight
Problems of
Engagement and
Translation, Legitimacy
Outreach
Links to many organisations,
and Expertise
building their capability, Tools and methods for
embedding processes Science and visualisation, debate, decisions
Policy beyond
Cross-institution collaborations Foresight Shadowing highly elaborate models
and non-partisan initiatives and techniques with more
explicable, hands on approaches
Political Institutions Advanced Concepts
and Policy Cycles and Methods
Sharing experience across Foresight
practitioners: a GC/GR forum? Links to other
communities working on GC/GR policy.
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

19. End of Presentation
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

20. Challenges themselves vary
Products of
socioeconomic
structures
Acts of
Acts of Nature
Humans
Threats
Often combination of the to
various features, and often
overlap between GCs
wellbeing
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

21. as does the role of technologies
Products of
socioeconomic
structures Technological
Technological elements of modes of
elements of modes destruction
of production and Acts of
Acts of Nature consumption Humans
Technological elements of responses to GCs
Threats
to
wellbeing
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

22. Major new technologies
Possibilities of major change
in how socioeconomic
activities are undertaken – Products of
affecting problems in
complex ways
socioeconomic
structures Technological
Technological elements of modes of
elements of modes destruction
of production and Acts of
Acts of Nature consumption Humans
Technological elements of responses to GCs
Threats Possibilities of major change
Possibilities of major change to in how destructive activities
in what and how responses
are undertaken –
wellbeing are undertaken – new
security threats
preventative or ameliorative
action
© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012