NewBase 19 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
Insights For A New Market
1. A Leading Provider of Investment Banking and Advisory Services
to Companies and Investors in the
Satellite, Media, Telecom Sectors
In Treacherous Financial Markets &
An Unstable Economy
Here is how Near Earth can help…
December 2008
380 Lexington Ave. 17th Floor, New York, NY 10168, Tel: (212) 551-7960
2. The world has changed…
“I skate to where the puck is going to be,
not where it has been.”
- Wayne Gretzky
Where is the puck going?
How will it get there?
How will you outmaneuver your competitor?
And when you get to the puck, what next?
2
3. …the value of good advice has not
Not all banks are in transition
• Wall Street institutions departed from traditional investment banking long
ago
– Institutions focused on proprietary trading, hedge fund management,
and principal activities
• For “boutique” firms such as Near Earth, business profile is vastly different
– Advisory focus (without conflicts)
– Highly targeted industry coverage
– Work with entrepreneurs, small- and mid-sized companies, and other
institutions
• We are not only better equipped but also take pride in offering well-balanced
advisory services to better serve our clients’ needs
– And at more reasonable rates
3
4. What should you be doing?
Review (and continuously update) your strategic and financial alternatives…
Are you a buyer or a seller?
Step 1: Understand the intrinsic value of your Company relative to the market
– Know your competitive landscape and likely changes
– Know your customer base and likely behavior in a down-market
Step 2: Keep abreast of financial markets
– Know your financing options in any scenario
– Know your competitors and customers’ financing options
Step 3: Keep abreast of the M&A environment
– Develop a strategy to use M&A to grow, restructure, or exit
– Know who is selling and who is buying, and at what terms
Step 4: Be prepared to act quickly
We can help!
4
6. Financial Markets Turmoil
Liquidity freeze has extended beyond sub-prime mortgages and structured credit
Broad economic repercussions felt worldwide & with lasting consequences
• Liquidity crunch is effecting all businesses in all industries and all geographies
– In the past year, major global equity market indices have lost 30-70% of value
– Only 6 VC-backed IPOs in 2008, 5 of these in Q1
– VC and PE firms focusing on existing portfolio holdings, and struggling to raise new funds
– Corporate credit markets substantially more expensive, if not frozen
– Banks and finance companies in transition
– Hedge fund industry diminishing rapidly due to losses and LP redemptions
• Limited access to capital expected to ripple into economic fundamentals
– Capital expenditures and expansion projects to slow with constrained liquidity
– Corporate defaults and restructurings to rise with limited refinancing sources
– Economists projecting global economic downturn lasting for 18-36 months
6
7. Financial Markets Turmoil
In the past year, major global equity market indices have lost 30-70% of value
U.S. and International Stock Indexes
MSCI World Index (as of 12/1/08) (as of 12/1/08) YTD
Index Country Current % Change
-46% YTD DJIA U.S. 8,149 -37.5%
S&P 500 U.S. 816 -43.6%
Nasdaq Composite U.S. 1,398 -46.4%
S&P/ TSX Comp Canada 9,271 -33.0%
IPC All-Share Mexico 20,535 -30.5%
Sao Paulo Bovespa Brazil 36,596 -42.7%
Shanghai Composite China 1,871 -64.4%
Hang Seng Hong Kong 13,888 -50.1%
Tokyo Nikkei 300 Japan 170 -43.7%
Kospi South Korea 1,076 -43.3%
Bombay Sensex India 9,093 -55.2%
CAC 40 France 3,263 -41.9%
DAX Germany 4,669 -42.1%
RTS Index Russia 658 -71.3%
FTSE 100 U.K. 4,288 -33.6%
Industry Stock Indexes
(as of 12/1/08) YTD
Source: Bloomberg and MSCI Barra Index Country Current % Change
The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was Dow Jones U.S. Telecom U.S. 107 -36.2%
developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1969. MXWO Dow Jones U.S. Technology U.S. 330 -44.6%
includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging Dow Jones U.S. Internet U.S. 198 -55.9%
markets.
7
8. Financial Markets Turmoil
Our sectors of interest have not been immune
Near Earth Sectors of Interest
(as of 12/1/08) YTD
Ticker Company Current % Change
Near Earth Indices (Year-to-Date) ISYS
Telecom
Integral Systems Inc. $21.13 86.2%
ETL.PA Eutelsat Communications $20.54 0.9%
Satellite Trad'l Media Telecom New Media NASDAQ SESG.PA SES Global S.A. $17.11 -4.9%
CMTL Comtech Telecommunications $45.13 -16.1%
120 VZ Verizon Communications, Inc. $30.51 -25.4%
T AT&T $26.93 -31.1%
ORB Orbital Sciences $16.00 -34.4%
110 CDV COM DEV International $2.26 -36.3%
AMT American Tower $25.43 -38.3%
VSAT ViaSat Inc. $19.01 -43.9%
100 SATS EchoStar Corp. $15.88 -51.3%
GCOM Globecomm Systems Inc. $4.85 -58.1%
SBAC SBA Communications $13.55 -59.1%
90 CCI
HUGH
Crown Castle
Hughes Communications, Inc.
$12.75
$15.45
-68.2%
-70.8%
GILT Gilat Satellite Networks $2.22 -78.2%
80 LORL
S
Loral Space & Comm. Inc.
Sprint Nextel Corporation
$6.04
$2.15
-82.3%
-83.5%
Traditional Media
CMCSA Comcast Corporation $15.45 -11.8%
70 DTV DirecTV Group Inc. $19.39 -13.9%
TWC Time Warner Cable Inc. $19.43 -29.3%
BSY British Sky Broadcasting $24.01 -48.0%
60 WPO Washington Post $354.25 -54.5%
CXR Cox Radio Inc. $5.06 -57.4%
NYT New York Times $6.97 -58.3%
50 MCCC
SBGI
Mediacom Communications Corp
Sinclair Broadcast Group
$2.10
$2.73
-60.2%
-63.9%
DISH Dish Network Corp $10.10 -68.5%
40 ROIA
MNI
Radio One Inc.
The McClatchy Company
$0.57
$1.85
-75.7%
-83.5%
CHTR Charter Communications Inc. $0.16 -86.0%
CMLS Cumulus Media Inc. $0.79 -89.9%
30 TVL LIN TV Corp. $1.19 -90.0%
EMMS Emmis Communications Corp. $0.30 -91.5%
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- ETM Entercom Communications $0.96 -92.2%
SIRI Sirius XM Radio $0.17 -94.4%
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 RNWK
New Media
Real Network Inc. $3.34 -44.0%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation $18.61 -46.2%
AAPL Apple Inc. $88.93 -54.4%
YHOO Yahoo! Inc. $10.74 -54.7%
Components of the satellite index components are highlighted to the right GOOG
IACI
Google Inc.
Interactive Corporation
$265.99
$13.96
-61.2%
-63.0%
ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. $17.77 -68.7%
8
9. Financial Markets Turmoil
VC and PE firms focusing on existing portfolio holdings
Only 6 VC-backed IPOs in 2008, VC firms struggling to raise new funds, and
5 of these in Q1 amount invested beginning to slow
Venture-Backed Fundraising and Investing by Venture Funds ('06-Present)
Liquidity Events: IPOs
Number of Funds Raised Amount Invested
35
31
90 $9,000
30
85
25
25 80 $8,000
Amount Invested ($,M)
# of Funds Raised
20 75
19
20 18
70 $7,000
65
15 12
10 60 $6,000
10 8 55
5 50 $5,000
5
1 45
0
0 40 $4,000
1Q'06 2Q'06 3Q'06 4Q'06 1Q'07 2Q'07 3Q'07 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 1Q'06 2Q'06 3Q'06 4Q'06 1Q'07 2Q'07 3Q'07 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08
Chart: Green VC & Near Earth LLC / Data Source: Thomson Reuters & National Venture Capital Association Source: Thomson Reuters, PwC & National Venture Capital Association
Includes all companies with at least one U.S. VC investor that trade on U.S. exchanges, regardless of domicile
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10. Financial Markets Turmoil
Corporate credit markets substantially more expensive, if not frozen
• Spread between investment grade/high-yield corporate debt and treasuries remains relatively
high
Investment Grade Corporate Debt High Yield Corporate Debt
9/15: Lehman
collapse and Merrill
deal with BofA
announced
(LQD) iShares: iBoxx $IG Corp: ETF tracking U.S. investment grade corporate bond market (HYG) iShares: iBoxx $HY Corp: ETF tracking U.S. high yield corporate bond market
(IEF) iShares: Lehman 7-10 Trs: ETF tracking Lehman Brothers 7-10 Year Treasury Index (IEF) iShares: Lehman 7-10 Trs: ETF tracking Lehman Brothers 7-10 Year Treasury Index
10
11. Strategic M&A Trends
Strategic acquirers with liquidity are looking for reasonably priced targets
• A number of strategic buyers have substantial cash
and equivalents balances for potential acquisitions
(e.g. Apple, Google, Intel, Microsoft) (2003-Present) Source: MergerMarket
• Deals are cheaper with financial-sponsor LBOs no
longer propping up prices
• Add revenue streams and profit (especially in slowing
economy) more cheaply/quickly than organic growth
strategy
• Industry consolidation and competitor elimination
opportunity
• Likely to get more aggressive as evidence of market
bottom solidifies
• Public companies largely still not buying back own
stock, even after steep devaluation (may indicate
lingering doubts about rebound)
11
12. Strategic M&A Trends
According to a McKinsey study of 200 global companies in an economic downturn,
an effective acquisition strategy
creates significant value for shareholders
• Relative value of cash vs. stock may favor using stock for deals
– Preserving cash balances in uncertain economy is top priority for many
• According to Moody's Investors Service, a record $1.6 trillion in cash sits on the
books of non-financial U.S. companies, $600 billion more than five years ago
– Some acquirers will prefer to use stock as M&A currency for strategic deals
– Sellers with structural flexibility and revenue/profit platforms will get deals done
– Many deals will involve stock, cash, seller paper and some form of earn-out
12
14. Distribution: Convergence
Rapid evolution of consumer tastes and technological capabilities are
continuously changing the landscape and business requirements
• Network convergence
– Triple play set the stage for broadband-mobile integration
– Convergence of voice, video and data on mobile and IP platforms
• EchoStar acquires Sling Media, DVB-SH trial with Alcatel-Lucent, creates Sling.com
– Fixed mobile convergence (e.g. Wi-Fi enabled smartphones, femtocell)
• AT&T acquires Wi-Fi provider, Wayport
• Mobile operators motivated to use “nomadic” methods to offload traffic to fixed backhaul networks
(e.g. Free Wi-Fi at Starbucks)
• Device convergence
– Fighting for a piece of the “digital home”
• Functionality of customer premise equipment (e.g. DVR, AppleTV, home networking, etc.)
• Media players and user interface (e.g. iTunes/iPod, Mac mini, Amazon Kindle, etc.)
• Role of gaming platforms as video players, other roles (e.g. Xbox, Nintendo Wii, etc.)
– Mobile networking, applications and interoperability
• Time-shifted communication (e.g. mobile IM vs. SMS)
• Open standards (e.g. Google Android)
• Expanded handset applications – mobile TV, transaction payments
– Digital signage (dynamic, increasingly interactive) replacing traditional billboards
14
15. Distribution: Infrastructure
Infrastructure capabilities and capacity need to keep pace
• Continued improvements in bandwidth and transport efficiency
– Need both high bandwidth and high quality broadband networks
• Multi-service broadband networks need end-to-end quality of service
• Support applications (e.g. streaming video, VoIP, e-commerce, Enterprise Resource
Planning (ERP))
• New modulation and compression standards (e.g. DVB-S-2, MPEG-4, VP8, etc.)
• Emergence of switched digital video, home networking standards
– Varying needs for delay, bandwidth, packet loss, and availability
• Broadcast (TV and Radio) vs. Unicast (IP) distribution
• Interactive, onDemand and HD media are bandwidth hogs (e.g. HDTV over IPTV)
• ERP solutions benefit from wide area network (WAN) optimization
• Content delivery networks for streaming video
• Continued explosion of video content (both SD and HD) worldwide
– Broadcast video still far more efficiently distributed via satellite
– Fixed satellite service companies enjoying strong cash flows and good multi-year backlogs
– In the developed world, DBS/Direct-to-home (DTH) added massive HD offerings to compete
• In emerging markets, DTH expanding rapidly
15
16. Distribution: Mobility
Seamless mobile connectivity and global roaming more and more evident.
Wireless broadband coverage continue to get filled by increasingly capable networks
Marine and aerial markets
Mobile satellite services (MSS)
Non-rural terrestrial markets
3G/3.5G, WiFi, WiMax
Rural terrestrial and emerging markets
Cellular backhaul via satellite
• Use of licensed and unlicensed spectrum is broadening
– Recent spectrum auctions surpassed expectations
– FCC approved use of TV broadcast spectrum “white spaces”
• Opens up possibility of vast new and innovative wireless products and services
– Spectral efficiency and interference mitigation are key
16
17. Distribution: Computing
Processing and hosting quality evolving with
customer trends and infrastructure solutions
• Cloud computing offers
Cloud Computing Landscape
various technology
capabilities ranging from
infrastructure to software
“as a service”
• Web developers, software
vendors, large enterprises,
small businesses, and many
consumers are increasingly
using these services to meet
their computing needs
…and many more
…as a Service
Source: Wikipedia & Near Earth LLC
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18. Content: Convergence
Nature of media (both traditional and new) forced to evolve, assimilate and combine
• Platform convergence
– Arrangements between media, entertainment, Internet, cable and wireless companies
to extend the reach of content across a number of platforms
• CBS acquires SignStorey, CNET and Last.fm
• Comcast acquires DailyCandy
– Traditional content on digital platforms
• Christian Science Monitor will be online only
• Google offering digital books online
• Amazon’s Kindle Device
• User-generated content, once seen as displacing professional content, is now losing
viewership and revenue share to professional content
– YouTube partners with CBS, MGM and Lionsgate
– Internet publishing groups in the blogosphere (e.g. Gawker Media)
– Social networking in the enterprise (e.g. LinkedIn)
18
19. Content: Proliferation
Differentiation increasingly challenging in
an environment of low barriers and very large numbers
• Quantity and fragmentation of content Sample: Digital music landscape
Audio Services Distribution Method
• Unlimited choices for the consumer creates
confusion in the marketplace
Digital download /
– “Long-tail” and niche content in all aspects of On Demand services
media (e.g. digital music libraries, news Cellular/
sources, books, video, artists, publishers, etc.) WiFi/WiMAX
Aggregation services
– Majority of revenues still derived from “head”
or popular content
– Professional content more valuable than user- Subscription services
Fixed broadband
generated
Internet radio
• Low barriers initially create level playing field Satellite
• Progressively a small set of companies dominates – Satellite radio
(DARS, DMB)
branded aggregators address customer confusion
– Google (search) Traditional radio
Terrestrial
– Amazon (online retail) broadcast
– iTunes (digital music) HD radio
– Hulu (branded video)
Source: Near Earth LLC
19
20. Content: Interactivity
Interactivity features deepen and broaden the relationship with the audience
• Interactivity and interaction
– User feedback and comments
– Bookmarking and sharing (e.g. del.icio.us, digg, flickr, etc.)
– Micro-communication with “followers” (e.g. Twitter, Tumblr, etc.)
– Integration with social sites
• Customization and filtering
– Screening and aggregation (e.g. RSS, Friendfeed, etc.)
– Personalization (e.g. Pandora, Slacker, etc.)
• Targeting
– Location based services (e.g. 3-D and street view maps, GPS, local services, etc.)
• Mash-up with geographic, spatial and user-generated information
20
21. Content: Monetization
New media business models required to mature and demonstrate profit potential
Subscription models Advertising models
(need: fee justification) (need: measurement, ROI, stickiness, relevance)
• “Freemium” • Online ad networks vs. direct sales
– Offer free content to all at low marginal – Pricing dynamics related to supply and
cost demand and commoditization of inventory
– Convert small percentage to premium – Ability to aggregate remnant inventory into
– Small percent of large number is large relevant platforms for advertisers
– Greater importance of scale – Embedded advertising without ruining
consumer experience (video, audio,
widgets, roll-over, etc.)
• Enterprise
• Data mining and utilization
– Initial consumer acceptance has opened
up enterprise opportunities – Sale of anonymous user data (e.g. spending
behavior) to marketers and researchers
– Enterprise customer easier to monetize
• Out of home
– Greater importance of sophistication and
privacy in enterprise – Ability for digital signage to show ROI on
large capital expenditures
21
23. Near Earth Advantage
We pride ourselves on our industry expertise
and providing our clients with quality advice
• Unmatched industry expertise
• Deep industry and investor relationships
• Blend of banking and research backgrounds
• Dedication and client focus of a boutique
• Added depth of Near Earth Advisory Board
We help our clients succeed!
23
24. Customized Advisory Services
We work flexibly with companies and investors to address individual needs
• Business plans and industry studies
– New ventures or strategies
– Project assessment
– Roll-up initiatives
– Financing support
• Strategic and financial advisory services
– Competitive overview
– SWOT analysis
– Industry direction
– Corporate finance options and strategies
• Leveraging the unique profile of Near Earth’s professional team, which includes a mix of banking,
equity research and specific industry experience
• Near Earth has successfully completed advisory assignments with numerous institutional investors and
large corporations
24
25. Standard Advisory Packages
In addition to customized solutions, we also offer
project specific packages listed below
M&A Review
Analyze buy-side and sell-side
opportunities
and make recommendations
Capital Structure Review
Analyze capitalization structure
Any one study: $20,000 - $40,000 and make recommendations
Any two studies: $30,000 - $60,000
Any three studies: $40,000 - $80,000 Valuation Review
Analyze company/asset and market
economics to create financial valuation
25
26. Investment Banking Services
We work with our clients to execute strategic and financial initiatives
of almost any size
• Full range of mergers & acquisition, corporate finance, and private placement
services
– Emerging as well as established companies in our sectors of specialization
• Transactional experience of professional team includes:
– Structuring
– Underwriting
– Placement
– Advisory
– Agency and principal roles
– All stages of business cycle
• More than 50 years and $30 billion in aggregate transactional expertise
26
27. About Us
Hoyt John Dan Kuni Ian
Davidson Stone Ramsden Takahashi Fichtenbaum
Finance • 21 years • 7 years • 18 years • 3 years • 1 year
Experience • DLJ, CSFB • Ladenburg Thalmann, • BMO Capital Markets, • Divine Capital Markets
• Raised over $15 billion National Securities Bentley Associates
• Over $10 billion in
transactions
Industry / • Satellite/ Media/ • Wireless/ Cable/ • New Media/ Digital • Satellite/ New Media / • Satellite/ Aerospace/
Product Telecom Satellite/ Tech Content/ Traditional Telecom Telecom
• Co-founder/MD of • Research analysis Media/ Towers • Corporate Finance, • Research and analysis
Experience
satellite banking • PIPEs banking • Debt & Equity private M&A and Valuations • Quantitative Analytics
• Corporate Finance and • 11 years satellite engineer placements • 3 years: Design
M&A at Boeing, Hughes, • M&A advisory Engineer, Space
• Sr. Research Engineer, General Dynamics • Public issuances Systems/Loral
Lockheed • Sr. Credit underwriting • Business Ops, Intelsat
• 2 years: Telecom / IT
Systems Integrator
Education • MBA, MIT Sloan School • MBA, UCLA Anderson • MBA, Fordham • MBA, Georgetown • MM, University of
• BS, MIT • MS, University of • BA, Cornell • BS, Santa Clara British Columbia
Maryland • BEng, McGill
• BS, University of University
Rochester
27
28. World Class Advisory Board
Satellite Media Telecom
• Terry Hart, PhD (Fixed Satellite • Ted Bolton, PhD (Radio and New • Christopher Baugh (Wireless Telecom
Services (FSS), former President of Media, President, Bolton Research) and Satellite, President, NSR)
Loral SkyNet)
• Gary Hatch (Cable, IPTV, and DBS, • Susan J. Irwin (Telecom Market
• Bruce Haymes (FSS and Digital President, ATCi Corporation) Research, President, Irwin
Media, Senior Vice President and Communications)
Product Leader, Digital Media, The • Stuart Jacob (New and Traditional
Nielsen Company; former VP Media, Entertainment, President, • Bruce Wendt (Communications
strategic development, PanAmSat) Programming and Creative Services, Towers, SteelTree Partners, formerly
CBS Outernet) led M&A for AAT Communications
• Ramin Khadem (Mobile Satellite Corp.)
Services (MSS), former CFO, • Robert Maccini (New Media and
Inmarsat) Radio, COO, Ando Media LLC and
Net Radio Sales, LLC)
• Jeremy L. Rose (Satellite
Networking, Principal, Comsys) • Jimmy Schaeffler (New Media, DBS
and Satellite Radio, CEO, The
• Peggy Slye (Satellite, Director Space Carmel Group)
& Telecom, Futron Corp.)
28
29. Additional Information
Please visit our website for additional credentials and track record information,
and access to our industry and capital markets publications
www.nearearthllc.com
Hoyt Davidson John Stone Dan Ramsden
hoyt@nearearthllc.com john@nearearthllc.com dan@nearearthllc.com
(212) 551-7960 (646) 290-7796 (646) 843-9799
Kuni Takahashi Ian Fichtenbaum
kuni@nearearthllc.com ian@nearearthllc.com
(646) 843-9806 (646) 290-7794
29
30. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND INFORMATION ABOUT THE USE OF THIS DOCUMENT:
Near Earth, LLC (quot;Near Earthquot;) has published this report solely for informational purposes. The report is aimed at institutional investors
and investment professionals, and satellite, media and telecom industry professionals. This report is not to be construed as a
recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The report was written without regard for the investment objectives, financial
situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient, and it should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their
own judgment. The content contained herein is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed
as being accurate, nor is it a complete statement or summary of any of the markets or developments mentioned.
The authors of this report are employees of Near Earth, LLC, which is a member of FINRA. The opinions expressed in this report
accurately reflect the personal views of the authors but do not necessarily reflect the opinions of New Earth itself or its other officers,
directors, or employees.
The portions of this report produced by non-Near Earth employees are provided simply as an accommodation to readers. Near Earth is
under no obligation to confirm the accuracy of statements written by others and reproduced within this report.
Near Earth and/or its directors, officers and employees may have, or have had, interests in the securities or other investment opportunities
related to the companies or industries discussed herein. Employees and/or directors of Near Earth may serve or have served as officers or
directors of companies mentioned in the report. Near Earth does, and seeks to do, business with companies mentioned in this report. As a
result, Near Earth may have conflicts of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
This report is subject to change without notice and Near Earth assumes no responsibility to update or keep current the information
contained herein.
Near Earth accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner, via the Internet or otherwise, without the specific written permission
of Near Earth. Near Earth accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
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