Senior Fellow Val Giddings, as part of "Innovation Day" 2011, presents on the importance of chemistry in evolving sustainable agricultural practices. He argues both Green Revolution Solutions (internal involving topical applications of pesticides/herbicides, external apps of fertilizers) and Doubly Green Revolution Solutions (building on GR but adding solutions from work with internal chemistry) are essential and indispensible to feeding a world population of billions.

1. Biotechnolog y,
Chemistry, and the
Nine Billion
L. Val Giddings, Ph.D.
Senior Fellow, ITIF
20 September 2011
Chemical Heritage Foundation
315 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, PA

2. “The greatest challenge of the 21st
century: feeding 9 billion people with
a sustainable agricultural production
system.”
--Chrispeels, 2000

3. GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
1999 -- 70% of people grow what
they eat
2025 -- 50% will live in cities, will
need to be fed through market
channels.

4. “It took some 10,000 years to expand
food production to the current level
of about 5 billion tons per year.
By 2025, we will have to nearly
double current production again.”
--Norman Borlaug, 2000

5. FAO Projections…
“…prices above historic equilibrium
levels during the next ten years…”
higher costs for animal feed
demand increase 100% over 40y

6. How can we
increase production
by 100% in 40 years?

7. To double production
FAO estimates
gains will come from:
additional farmlands 20%
increased intensity 10%
innovative technologies 70%

8. 20th Century ~ Chemistry
fertilizers & pesticides (munitions…)
green revolution saved billions
through chemistry
21st Century ~ Biology
nucleic acids
greater challenges;
require more complex solutions
chemistry will remain indispensible

9. Where does chemistry fit in?

10. “The reports of my death are greatly
exaggerated…”
-- Mark Twain

11. …fertilizers, pesticides and
transgenes are the best possible
protectors of the planet.
-----The Economist, “Ears of Plenty:
The story of man’s staple food”
24 December 2005.

12. “A truly extraordinary variety of
alternatives to the chemical control of
insects is available. All have this in
common: They are biological solutions,
based on understanding of the living
organisms they seek to control. …Some
of the most interesting of the recent
work is concerned with ways of forging
weapons from the insects’ own life
processes.”

13. “A truly extraordinary variety of
alternatives to the chemical control of
insects is available. All have this in
common: They are biological solutions,
based on understanding of the living
organisms they seek to control. …Some
of the most interesting of the recent
work is concerned with ways of forging
weapons from the insects’ own life
processes.”
--Rachel Carson,
Silent Spring, 1962

14. It’s ALL chemistry…
chemistry is the keystone.

15. Where are we headed?

16. Green Revolution Solutions = external
involve topical applications of
pesticides/herbicides, external apps of
fertilizers
Doubly Green Revolution Solutions:
build on GR but add solutions from
work with internal chemistry
Both are essential and indispensible

17. Products of agricultural
biotechnology are becoming the
new “conventional” standard

18. Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2009:
Industrial and Developing Countries (M Has, M Acres)
M Acres
346 140
296 120 Total
Industrial
247 100
Developing
198 80
148 60
99 40
49 20
0 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Clive James, 2010

19. Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2009:
By Crop (Million Hectares, Million Acres)
M Acres
198 80
173 70 Soybean
148 60 Maize
Cotton
124 50
Canola
99 40
74 30
49 20
25 10
0 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Clive James, 2010

20. Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2009:
By Trait (Million Hectares, Million Acres)
M Acres
222 90
198 80 Herbicide Tolerance
173 70 Insect Resistance (Bt)
148 Herb Tolerance/Insect resistance
60
124 50
99 40
74 30
49 20
25 10
0 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Clive James, 2010

21. Global Adoption Rates (%) for Principal
Biotech Crops (Million Hectares, Million Acres), 2009
M Acres
445 180
158
395 160 Conventional
346 Biotech
140
296 120
90
247 100
198 80
148 60
99 40 33 31
49 20
0 0
77% 49% 26% 21%
Soybean Cotton Maize Canola
Source: Clive James, 2010

22. Biotech Crop Countries and Mega-Countries, 2009

23. GLOBAL AREA OF BIOTECH CROPS
Million Hectares (1996 to 2009)
200
“Trait Hectares”
180 Total Hectares 25 Biotech Crop Countries
Industrial
160
Developing
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
A record 14 million farmers, in 25 countries, planted 134 million hectares (330 million acres) in 2009, a
sustained increase of 7% or 9 million hectares (22 million acres) over 2008.
Source: Clive James, 2009.

24. Over the next five years,
we anticipate…
17 new soybean events (currently ~5)
From 9 maize events to 24
From 4 canola to 8
From 12 cotton to 27
From 1* rice to 15
From 1* or 2 potatoes to 8
From 7 to 23 minor crops
R&D on at least 57 crops in 63 countries

25. Technology source Commercialization Regulatory Advanced Projected
approval R&D total by 2015
current pending pipeline
USA and EU 24 7 10 26 67
Asia 9 0 11 34 54
Latin America 0 0 2 1 3

26. 1st generation = agronomic traits
2nd gen = quality/consumer traits
3rd gen = GURTS/ inducible traits
4th gen = complex, polygenic traits: water
metabolism, customized biofuels, N2
fixation, etc.

27. “…Societies initially lacking an
advantage either acquire it from
societies possessing it or (if they fail
to do so) are replaced by those other
societies.” --Jared Diamond
Guns, Germs and Steel;
W.W. Norton, 1998, p. 407