Evolution of animal agriculture from past trends to future scenarios
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The document discusses trends and trajectories in global animal agriculture between now and 2050. Three key points: 1) Demand and production of livestock products are rapidly increasing in developing countries, especially in places like China, India, and Africa. This is driven by population growth, rising incomes, and urbanization. 2) Smallholder mixed crop-livestock systems will experience some of the greatest changes and opportunities. These diverse systems in places like Africa and South Asia offer opportunities to close yield gaps and reduce disease and emissions. 3) Plausible future scenarios depend on uncertain variables like climate change, technology, and disease outbreaks. This could lead to scenarios like sustainable intensification or climate-related crises
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Evolution of animal agriculture from past trends to future scenarios
- 1. Evolution of animal production in emerging markets: China, Russia, India, Brazil, Africa Conference on mega trends in livestock production: The state of animal agriculture 2025–2050 Florham Park, USA, 11–13 March 2014 Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
- 2. Animal agriculture to 2050: TRENDS GLOBAL TRENDS: Livestock demand and production are increasing rapidly in developing countries • Unprecedented rising demand for livestock commodities will continue over the coming 5 decades • Where and how most livestock commodities are produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly
- 3. Animal agriculture to 2050: TRAJECTORIES TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGE: Some of the greatest changes will occur in the smallholder sector • The big changes in livestock systems are occurring among smallholders, who differ greatly according to region, system, poverty levels, etc. • Small-scale mixed crop-livestock farmers in developing countries offer big opportunities for preventing disease outbreaks, closing yield gaps and reducing greenhouse gases
- 4. Animal agriculture to 2050: SCENARIOS FUTURE SCENARIOS: Big opportunities lie in developing countries • Vaccines and other technological advances likely to be of broad use can be game changers • More judicious targeting of different livestock markets and institutions could vastly increase returns on investments by the private and public sectors
- 5. Animal agriculture: Past, current, future From key (1) assumptions, (2) drivers (rising human population, per capita GDP, urbanization and (3) past trends: Future trends: • Demand • Production • Trade Trajectories of change: • Diverse opportunities Plausible future scenarios: • Global assessments (e.g. MEA) • Livestock-sector responses
- 6. Trends
- 7. % change in global demand for livestock products: 2000–2030 180 160 140 120 % 100 80 60 40 20 0 milk beef mutton pork poultry meat eggs FAO 2011
- 8. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed countries 300 Million metric tonnes 250 200 150 developing developed 100 50 0 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 FAO 2006
- 9. % change in consumption of animal products: 2000–2030 843% 300 250 200 % China Russia Brazil India SSA High income 150 100 50 0 Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat Eggs FAO 2011
- 10. Consumption of livestock products to 2050 • Globally: An overall increase in per capita daily consumption of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000 • Commodities differ: – A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption – A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption • Regions differ: – In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC – In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC Herrero et al. 2014
- 11. By 2050 we’ll need huge amounts of cereals, dairy and meat . . . 1bn tonnes more cereals to 2050 1bn tonnes dairy each year 460m tonnes meat each year
- 12. Where and how most livestock commodities are being produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly
- 13. Projections of livestock production increases: 2000–2050 • In half a century, total livestock commodity production is projected to increase by 92%: +106% for monogastric meat (pig and poultry) and poultry eggs +88% for ruminant meat (cow, sheep, goat, camel, water buffalo) +85% for milk • With big regional differences Herrero et al. 2014
- 14. % change in production of animal products: 2000–2030 300 250 200 % China Russia Brazil India SSA High income 150 100 50 0 Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat Eggs FAO 2011
- 15. Production estimate in 2030: 000s metric tonnes 200000 180000 160000 140000 China Russia Brazil India SSA High income 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat Eggs FAO 2011
- 16. Production estimate in 2030: 000s metric tonnes 60000 50000 40000 China Russia Brazil India SSA High income 30000 20000 10000 0 Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat Eggs FAO 2011
- 17. % increase in production of livestock products: 2000–2050 400 350 300 250 % 200 Europe Latin America Africa/Middle East 150 100 50 0 Raw milk Monogastric meat & eggs Ruminant meat Herrero et al. 2014
- 18. Valuable livestock products are moving around the globe
- 19. 4 out of 5 of the highest value global commodities are livestock FAOSTAT 2013
- 20. Import and export of meat (000s metric tonnes) 6000 5000 4000 Export 3000 other Africa India Brazil Russia China 2000 1000 Import 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 2011 2020 Beef 2011 2020 Pork 2011 2020 Poultry FAPRI 2012
- 21. Global livestock product exports: 2013–2022 BRICS dominate 000s tonnes OECD estimates of beef/veal export World meat exports increase by 19% to 2022 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 developed countries Poultry and bovine meat account for 80% of the trade BRICS SSA Estimated dairy trade increases of 1.6−2.1% per year (mainly from US, EU, New Zealand, Australia & Argentina) OECD-FAO 2013
- 22. Poultry meat exports From Brazil and the US: 1987−1989 1997−1999 2007−2009 FAO 2013. World Livestock 2013 – Changing disease landscapes
- 23. Trajectories
- 24. Monogastric production systems 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% smallholder industrial 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2050 Europe 2000 2050 Latin America 2000 2050 Africa/Middle East Herrero et al. 2014
- 25. Ruminant production systems • Mixed systems are an important source of ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050 – Europe: 42% mixed temperate – Latin America: 48% mixed humid – Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid • For milk: – Over 50% of milk comes from mixed systems, regardless of the region – Big increases in milk production by 2050 continue to be in mixed systems, especially in Africa and the Middle East
- 26. Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepers are competitive East African dairy • 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd • Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers • Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers have same levels of efficiency and profits Vietnam pig industry • 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs than those with more than 4 sows • Industrial pig production could grow to meet no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
- 27. Trajectories of growth • ‘Strong growth’ – Intensifying and increasingly market oriented often transforming smallholder systems • ‘Fragile growth’ – Where remoteness, marginal land resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification • ‘High growth with externalities’ (industrial) – Intensified livestock systems with diverse challenges including the environment and human health
- 28. Distinguishing opportunities Trajectory Sector Issues Opportunities ‘Strong growth’ − Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India − Pork in some regions − Market access and food safety − Endemic disease impacts − Zoonotic outbreaks − New opportunities for novel approaches from the private animal health sector ‘Fragile growth’ − Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response − Multiple endemic diseases − Zoonoses − Source of disease − Movement controls − Mostly public sector interventions ‘High growth with externalities’ − Mostly monogastric − China for all sectors − Drug resistance − Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics − Disease scares − New animal health products to respond − Modalities of operation established
- 29. Distinguishing opportunities (cont.) Trajectory Sector Issues Opportunities ‘Strong growth’ − Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India − Pork in some regions − Market access and food safety − Endemic disease impacts − Zoonotic outbreaks − New opportunities for novel approaches from the private animal health sector ‘Fragile growth’ − Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response − Multiple endemic diseases − Zoonoses − Source of disease − Movement controls − Mostly public sector interventions ‘High growth with externalities’ − Mostly monogastric − China for all sectors − Drug resistance − Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics − Disease scares − New animal health products to respond − Modalities of operation established
- 30. Rapidly growing mixed systems are ripe for novel animal health solutions
- 31. Animal health challenges of strong growth trajectories Intensifying and increasingly market-oriented (and sometimes transforming) smallholder systems present animal health challenges Market access and food safety – Engagement in local, regional and international markets is threatened by food safety issues and regulations Endemic disease impacts – Implications for productivity, and thus addressing market demand Zoonotic outbreaks – Intensifying systems place people and animals in ever-closer proximity, increasing the risk of zoonoses
- 32. Innovations, incentives and institutions for addressing food safety • Develop, test technologies • Train, brand, certify informal actors including women • Development local capacity Novel lateral flow assays for cysticercosis Women butchers sell safer meat than men
- 33. Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal health, persist between rich and poor countries Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk Steinfeld et al. 2006
- 34. Annual losses from selected diseases: Africa and South Asia 8 7 Billion $ lost yearly 6 Africa South Asia 5 4 South Asia 3 Africa 2 1 0 BMGF
- 35. Animal disease is a key constraint in Africa • Animal disease is a key constraint: Remove it and animal productivity increases greatly • As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase Annual mortality of African livestock (About half due to preventable or curable diseases) Young Adult Cattle 22% 6% Shoat 28% 11% Poultry 70% 30% Otte & Chilonda IAEA
- 36. A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each year kill 2.2 million people and sicken 2.4 billion Annual deaths from all zoonoses Annual deaths from single-agent zoonoses 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Almost all losses are in developing countries
- 37. Greatest burden of zoonoses falls on one billion poor livestock keepers Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
- 38. African swine fever threatens US$150-billion global pig industry 2007 199 8 Recent reports indicate ASF has moved into Belarus, Poland and Lithuania
- 39. Health and feed market values and approaches
- 40. Animal health markets: Big and growing, incl. in developing countries The cost: • Emerging animal disease outbreaks in the last decade: $200bn • Zoonoses (1998–2009): $6.7bn/yr The value (2010/2011): • Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry • Global human health market = $1,000 billion • Global animal health market (livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion • Global livestock health market = $13 billion • Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion • Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15% • Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth (2nd after Latin America)
- 41. Animal health markets: India example • 500 million livestock, 1 billion poultry • Livestock sector is 2nd-largest contributor to GDP (6%) • Largest dairy producer (and will remain so for decades) • Animal health market annual growth over 8% • Worth $370 million in 2008: 52% cattle, 38% poultry Poultry alone could worth be over $1billion by 2030 •
- 42. Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries • Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages) • Delivery systems for small farms • Surveillance for drug resistance • ‘One Health’ approaches and ‘Rational Drug Use’ for both people and animals • ‘Game-changing products’: e.g., vaccines for Newcastle disease and East Coast fever • Quality assurance for veterinary medicines
- 43. World feed producers contribution to animal feed: 2008 Other US India Manufactured compound feed Korea Russia Total in 2008: 635 million tonnes from four major sources Canada Japan Total in 2013: Almost 1 billion tonnes; valued at US$370 billion Mexico Brazil EU-25 China Estimated growth: 2% per annum IFIF, 2008 and 2013
- 44. Animal feed markets: Trends in developing countries to 2030 • Use of crop residues decreases, but still comprises >50% of livestock diets in SSA and South Asia • Use of crop by-products (oilcakes etc.) and concentrates increases, but remains <10%, except in India dairy (25%) • Planted forages increase • Feed bought from markets increases World Bank 2012
- 45. Animal feed markets: Opportunities in developing countries • Feed technology – Food-feed crops – Ration formulation; processing and storage – Forage seed production and marketing • Institutional and market issues • Feed regulatory policies • Animal numbers and productivity
- 46. Scenarios
- 47. Variables that influence trajectories • Slow variables, e.g.: – Climate change – Technological change • Fast variables, e.g.: – Changing market dynamics • Thresholds or ‘tipping points’: – – – – – Disease outbreak New trade restrictions Climate-related policy imposition Technological breakthrough ‘Wild cards’ = the unknowns
- 48. Global scenarios • Global scenarios: – Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – IAASTD – IPCC etc. • Livestock-sector scenarios: – ‘climate catastrophe’ – ‘sustainable solutions’ – ‘pandemic disaster’ (unpredictable)
- 49. Example of global scenario IPCC panel: Shared socioeconomic pathways Inequalities in levels of consumption of animal-source foods are exacerbated Varied levels of consumption of animal-source foods Continued inequality of diets More sustainable diets − convergence towards consumption of 75g/capita/day of animal-source foods
- 50. Livestock scenario: Climate catastrophe • With broad acceptance that a +2oC climate increase has occurred, drastic policies are put in place to prevent a further rise to +4oC – The livestock sector is heavily taxed for its contributions to GHG emissions – Prices for livestock commodities skyrocket – Livestock production, sales and consumption all plummet, leading to increased poverty, hunger and malnutrition
- 51. Livestock scenario: Sustainable solutions Governments and development donors: • tackle food and nutritional security as well as poverty • dramatically increase their support for livestock producers Success breeds more success: • milk in India • pigs in Vietnam • dairy in Kenya Smallholder livestock producers become major instruments for: • • • • Food/nutrition security Multiple livelihood benefits Environmental protection Healthy food systems
- 52. Livestock sector scenario solutions • Technical: Solutions for the two scenarios are similar – Improved efficiency of livestock production through better feeding, genetics and health • Institutional: Solutions for the two scenarios differ – Packaging, delivery, market response
- 53. Animal agriculture to 2050: Trends, trajectories, scenarios GLOBAL TRENDS Livestock demand, production and change are all increasing rapidly in developing countries TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGE The greatest changes will occur in the smallholder sector FUTURE SCENARIOS Big opportunities lie in the developing countries
- 54. better lives through livestock ilri.org The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
Notas do Editor
- Source of data for 2000 – 2030 figures:FAO. 2011. Mapping supply and demand for animal source foods to 2030. By T.P. Robinson and F.Pozer. Animal Production and Health Working Paper. No. 2. FAO, Rome.
- Figures from FAO’s Livestock’s Long Shadow.
- Herrero M, Havlik P, McIntire JM, Palazzo A, Valin H. 2014. African Livestock Futures: Realizing the potential of livestock for food security, poverty reduction and the environment in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Other Africa means SSA without South AfricaFood and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) 2012 outlook data. http://www.fapri.iastate.edu/outlook/2012/
- From OECD-FAO agricultural outlook: http://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?QueryId=48184&vh=0000&vf=0&l&il=&lang=en
- Perry et al’s assessment in relation to health:Intensified and worried wellIntensifyingSmallholder/pastoral systems
- No numbers for PPR here but PPR is widespread in South Asia
- ECF and Newcastle Disease are examples where the disease is the biggest constraint in the system.Several studies have shown that where these are controlled populations and/or offtake can double.The table summarizes a number of studies in a systematic review of mortality in African traditional systems, by age group
- Of 56 important diseases identified in the study, just 12 were responsible for 97% of human mortality.The second table shows those diseases caused by single agents(e.g. excluding food borne diseases which are caused by multiple agents).
- In 2012ILRI conducted a systematic review of zoonoses, livestock-keeping and poverty.This found that the heaviest burden of zoonoses falls on poor people in close contact with animalsAn ILRI study shows that zoonotic diseases are major obstacles in pathways out of poverty for one billion poor livestock keepers.The diseases mapped cause 2.3 billion human illness and 1.7 million human deaths a year. In poor countries, the diseases also infect more than one in seven livestock every year.
- Globalization of transboundary diseasesThe world is more inter-connectedLocal problems are becoming global challengesFood safety, zoonoses, endemic diseases in developing countries increasingly becoming challenges in developed countriesExample:No vaccine for ASF, a disease that affects trade and market access. It wiped out half the pig population in Madagascar in the late 1990s.
- Costs: www.ifahsec.org (2013)
- Figure from IFIF (International Feed Industry Federation) presentation, 20092013 information from IFIF website: www.ifif.org
- These scenarios are taken from scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and were derived from narratives developed by hundreds of stakeholders. They include quantified measures of how economies may develop over the 21st centenary.SSP 1: SustainabilitySummary: This is a world making relatively good progress towards sustainability, with sustained efforts to achieve development goals, while reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Elements that contribute to this are a rapid development of low-income countries, a reduction of inequality (globally and within economies), rapid technology development, and a high level of awareness regarding environmental degradation. Rapid economic growth in low-income countries reduces the number of people below the poverty line. The world is characterized by an open, globalized economy, with relatively rapid technological change directed toward environmentally friendly processes, including clean energy technologies and yield-enhancing technologies for land. Consumption is oriented towards low material growth and energy intensity, with a relatively low level of consumption of animal products. Investments in high levels of education coincide with low population growth. Concurrently, governance and institutions facilitate achieving development goals and problem solving. The Millennium Development Goals are achieved within the next decade or two, resulting in educated populations with access to safe water, improved sanitation and medical care. Other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes include, for example, the successful implementation of stringent policies to control air pollutants and rapid shifts toward universal access to clean and modern energy in the developing world.SSP 2: Middle of the Road (or Dynamics as Usual, or Current Trends Continue, or Continuation, or Muddling Through)Summary: In this world, trends typical of recent decades continue, with some progress towards achieving development goals, reductions in resource and energy intensity at historic rates, and slowly decreasing fossil fuel dependency. Development of low-income countries proceeds unevenly, with some countries making relatively good progress while others are left behind. Most economies are politically stable with partially functioning and globally connected markets. A limited number of comparatively weak global institutions exist. Per-capita income levels grow at a medium pace on the global average, with slowly converging income levels between developing and industrialized countries. Intra-regional income distributions improve slightly with increasing national income, but disparities remain high in some regions. Educational investments are not high enough to rapidly slow population growth, particularly in low-income countries. Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals is delayed by several decades, leaving populations without access to safe water, improved sanitation, medical care. Similarly, there is only intermediate success in addressing air pollution or improving energy access for the poor as well as other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes.SSP 3: Fragmentation (or Fragmented World)Summary: The world is separated into regions characterized by extreme poverty, pockets of moderate wealth and a bulk of countries that struggle to maintain living standards for a strongly growing population. Regional blocks of countries have re-emerged with little coordination between them. This is a world failing to achieve global development goals, and with little progress in reducing resource intensity, fossil fuel dependency, or addressing local environmental concerns such as air pollution. Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own region. The world has de-globalized, and international trade, including energy resource and agricultural markets, is severely restricted. Little international cooperation and low investments in technology development and education slow down economic growth in high-, middle-, and low-income regions. Population growth in this scenario is high as a result of the education and economic trends. Growth in urban areas in low-income countries is often in unplanned settlements. Unmitigated emissions are relatively high, driven by high population growth, use of local energy resources and slow technological change in the energy sector. Governance and institutions show weakness and a lack of cooperation and consensus; effective leadership and capacities for problem solving are lacking. Investments in human capital are low and inequality is high. A regionalized world leads to reduced trade flows, and institutional development is unfavorable, leaving large numbers of people vulnerable to climate change and many parts of the world with low adaptive capacity. Policies are oriented towards security, including barriers to trade.