Feeding the World in 2050: Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices for the livestock sector
1. Feeding the World in 2050
Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices
for the livestock sector
Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director General
22nd International Grassland Congress
15−19 September 2013, Sydney, Australia
2. Key messages
3 Addressing
partial truths
and hard trade-offs
in the livestock sector
will open opportunities
1 We’ll need lots
more food grown
much more sustainably
over the next 4 decades
2 Roles of smallholders
/livestock keepers in food
security underestimated
3. We need lots more food,
produced much more sustainably
1
4. By 2050 we’ll need huge amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat . . .
1bn tonnes more
cereals to 2050
1bn tonnes
dairy each year
460m tonnes
meat each year
5. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional
cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands
Additional Grains
1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
human
consumption
458 million MT
Livestock
430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
biofuels
160 million MT
(IAASTD 2009)
8. And in face of big changes
- A hotter, often drier, more variable,
more unpredictable climate
- More stringent food quality and safety standards
- Widening gaps between rich and poor
- Increasing threats of animal-to-human diseases
- Increasing urbanization
9. In brief,
we need
food systems
that are:
profitable
efficient
safe
nutritious
equitable
‘green’
For all
16. Livestock demand is highest in developing countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Developing Countries Developed Countries
Meat
Milk
Eggs
Percentage increase 2000−2040
Source: IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results
17. Developing countries lead in global food production
Source: Herrero et al. 2009
Most global food
comes from crop-
and-livestock
smallholders in
developing
countries
18. Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive
More than 70% of milk in India and 85% of milk in Kenya
is produced by small-scale livestock keepers
19. Growth scenarios for the livestock sector
Strong growth Fragile growth High growth
with externalities
21. Food security is about staple cereals
• Food to many people means
staple cereals
(corn, rice, wheat)
• Grains, as well as tubers
(potatoes, yams, cassava)
and pulses (dried legumes),
do dominate diets of the poor
• They are relatively cheap
and easy to store
22. But . . .
• Animal-source foods
help meet global
nutritional & food needs
• Milk, meat, eggs provide
protein, energy,
micronutrients
• Livestock livelihoods are
means to obtain:
- Manure for soil fertility
- Traction for cropping
- Regular incomes
- Employment for 1.3b
23. Livestock compete with human food
• Half of the world’s
grain is used for
animal feed
• Feed crops are grown
on 0.5 billion ha
• As much as 70%
of the world’s
agricultural land is
related to livestock
24. But . . .
• Grazing systems, which
comprise 1/3 of the
Earth’s surface,
produce meat and milk
from grass and other
inedible materials
• 70% of livestock diets
on mixed farms are
stover and other
wastes / by-products
of crop production
25. Importance of grazed biomass for livestock
Grass represents 50% of the biomass consumed by livestock
Herrero et al PNAS (in press)
26. Meat and milk are bad for your health
More than
1 billion people
are overweight
and at risk from
associated cancers,
diabetes and
cardiovascular disease
27. But . . .
1 billion people
are
undernourished
Consumption of even
small amounts of
animal-source foods:
- combats undernutrition
- improves cognitive
development
- increases physical
growth and activity
28. Livestock cause climate change
• Livestock contribute
12−18% of global GHGs
• Livestock emit methane,
the most potent GHG
• The developing world
contributes 75% of global
ruminant non-CO2
emissions:
- 61% from mixed systems
- 12% from grazing
29. But . . .
• Huge variations exist in
GHG emissions levels
• Developing countries
have as yet untapped
potential to mitigate
GHG emissions:
- Through improved
efficiencies (e.g., better
feeds & feeding systems)
- Through carbon
sequestration on well-
managed rangelands
30. Global greenhouse gas efficiency
per kilogram of animal protein produced
Large livestock production inefficiencies
in the developing world present an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS (in press)
31. Livestock production uses too much water
One-third of all
agricultural water
is used by the
livestock sector:
- 90% to grow feeds
- 10% for livestock
drinking
32. But . . .
Developing countries
can greatly improve
‘livestock water productivity’
in production of milk and meat:
- By three-fold through
combinations of improved feed,
water and animal management
methods
- By 45% through better
management of rangelands
33. Livestock production degrades lands
65% of deforestation
in the Amazon is
caused by livestock-
related activities:
- 600,000 ha are
deforested each year
for planting crops that
will feed livestock
34. But . . .
Rangelands, which cover
up to 40% of the Earth’s
surface, comprise a vast
carbon sink:
- With moderate
livestock grazing and
good management,
Africa’s rangelands
alone could sequester
8.6 million tonnes of
carbon each year
35. Key messages
3 Addressing
partial truths
and hard trade-offs
in the livestock sector
will open opportunities
1 We’ll need lots
more food grown
much more sustainably
over the next 4 decades
2 Roles of smallholders
/livestock keepers in food
security underestimated
36. Last words
The developing world’s livestock
sector is diverse, changing, growing
This presents opportunities for
environmental harm and other ills
It also offers us opportunities −
perhaps our biggest opportunities −
for influencing animal agriculture
for the benefit of all
37. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
better lives through livestock
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Notas do Editor
We need lots more food in the next 4 decadesand we need to produce it:- Profitably- Efficiently- SafelyEquitablyand- Without destroying the environment
All types of food are needed – diversity of foodSpecifically, the world will need: 1 billion tonnes more cereals to 2050 1 billion tonnes dairy products each year 460 million tonnes meat each year
How can we produce this new amount of food:Without damaging the environment?
On a fixed land base that is reaching its ecological limits,we will have to find ways to ‘intensify’ our agricultural production systems,getting more food from every bit of land.
We also need to do all this (already a tall order!) in the face of big new challenges and drivers:A hotter, often drier, more variable, much more unpredictable climateMore stringent food quality, safety standardsWidening gaps between rich and poorIncreasing urbanizationIncreasing threats of animal-human diseases
In brief,we need food systems that are:- profitable- efficient- safe- nutritious- equitable&-‘green’for- allThe shift to ‘food systems’Alongside increased attention to how the world will feed itself in the coming decades, there have been two other shifts in emphasis:from quantity at all costs, to sustainable quantities at acceptable quality.(1) Production of enough food is not enough: in addition, we must ensure that that food is produced in ways that are environmentally, socially and economically sustainable.(2) Defeating hunger by providing enough energy is not enough; balanced, wholesome nutrition must also be part of the solution.
Both livestock systems and smallholder farmers and herders play large −and largely unknown and underestimated −roles in feeding the world
Frank Rijsberman’s slide showing that 20 countries have alarming or extremely alarming levels of hunger
Animal-source foods are a big part of meeting global nutritional as well as food needs and demands.Of the world’s 7 billion people, only a small percentage are fed and nourished.It is a shocking indictment of the global food system that, in the 21st century, most of the world’s population have sub-optimal diets:1 billion going to bed hungry2 billion are vulnerable to food insecurity1 billion have diets that do not meet all their nutritional requirements1 billion suffer the effects of over-consumption
Significant amounts of the world’s food supply, both crop and livestock products, comes from systems in which livestock are important.A considerable amount of food is produced by smallholders:500 million smallholders support more than 2 billion people.In South Asia, more than 80% of farms are less than 2ha.In sub-Saharan Africa, smallholders contribute more than 80% of livestock production.Farms with a few ruminants, such as two cattle and half-a-dozen sheep or goats and 2ha of land, contribute 50-75% of total global livestock production.
Tackling partial truths and hard trade-offs about livestockwill help ‘green’ the sector,allowing it to sustain as well as intensify food productionAddressing these will let us see and exploit new opportunities.
Grazed grass is 48% of the total feed resources globally and 73% of the feed resources in developing countries.The importance of grazing in mixed systems is underestimated.Livestock in these systems consume 1 billion tonnes of grazed grass,about one-fifth of the biomass eaten by animals
The methane produced by livestock can be halved by doing very simple things,such as:improving the quality of the crop residue feedprocessing the feedgiving a slightly more balanced diet to livestock.
This new map of greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced,made by Mario Herrero, an agricultural systems analyst formerly of ILRI and now at CSIRO,shows that the current large inefficiencies in livestock production in developing countriesoffers great opportunities to make smallholder livestock systemsboth more productive and environmentally friendly.
There is a huge range in the amount of water used to produce livestock commodities and its because of vastly different production systems.BUT: differences can be as great as ten-fold between intensive and small-scale production systems in rich and poor countries.