Presentation by Mario Herrero, Philip Thornton and Iain Wright to Workshop on climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector, Kathmandu, Nepal, 28-29 October 2010.

1. Adapting livestock systems to climate change in South Asia M. Herrero, P. K. Thornton and I. Wright Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the livestock sector 28 th -29 th October 2010 | Kathmandu, Nepal

5. Human population UNEP 2007

6. Revised demand for livestock products to 2050 Rosegrant et al 2009 Annual per capita consumption Total consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 2050 28 44 44 78 137 326 222 585 Developed 2002 2050 78 94 202 216 102 126 265 295

7. Cereal yields Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank 2007

8. Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields World Bank 2007

10. ...and then there’s climate change...

11. Why is climate change so important to agriculture-based countries? de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005) Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability and Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

12. Climate change: we need to act even when there are still uncertainties...but the science is improving!

14. But the policy frameworks have been slowly implemented Climate policy timeline 1992: Rio Treaty – establishes UNFCCC A modest proposal? N ear-term implementation of a global policy that affects all parts of everyone’s lives. Courtesy of R. Conant 2008-2012: 1 st Kyoto compliance period 2005: Kyoto into effect 2001: Marrakech accords 1997: Kyoto Protocol 1992: US Energy policy act; incl. Section 1605(b)

15. P.G. Jones CIAT Land Use Project March 2004 Temperature Random series gently rising Number of high events increases Number of low events decreases Comfort Zone

16. What are the impacts of climate change on livestock systems?

17. Increases in temperature Increases in boreal winter and summer rainfall in places but more variable More snow melt Higher frequency of extreme events (rainfall and wind – cyclones) Disruption of monsoon patterns Climate change impacts in South Asia (IPCC 2007)

18. Asia | Length of growing period | Current conditions

19. Asia | Changes in the length of growing period | 2000 – 2050 (Thornton et al 2008)

20. Percent change in annual runoff by 2041-60 relative to 1900-70, scenario A1B, using an ensemble of 12 climate models (Milly et al., 2005, as in Fig 3.4 in AR4-WGII) More runoff

21. Increases in precipitation may not translate into higher crop yields due to increased rainfall variability...and only if input supply is appropriate

22. A game of winners and losers… Simulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, by country and system Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenario Thornton et al. (2010) Winners Losers National Production Mixed rainfed temperate Mixed rainfed humid Mixed rainfed arid 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Burundi 9.1 9.1 14.4 18.1 -1.8 -8.8 - - Kenya 15.0 17.8 33.3 46.5 -4.6 -9.8 -1.1 -8.4 Rwanda 10.8 14.9 13.4 18.8 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.7 Tanzania -3.1 -8.1 7.5 8.7 -1.6 -6.4 -5.1 -11.1 Uganda -2.2 -8.6 4.9 3.1 -4.6 -12.9 -1.1 -6.3

25. Adaptation to climate change in livestock systems

34. In intensive systems, feed shortages for ruminants might increase demand for cereals further. If these end up being fed on grains…this might lead to reduce food consumption of poor people further grains livestock products human consumption livestock energy Monogastrics mostly + ruminants Further increases?

35. ‘ Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases India quotes from M Blummel ‘ Stovers transported more than 400 km to be sold’ ‘ Price has doubled in 5 years, now 1/3 (2/3) of grain value of sorghum’ ‘ Farmers paying for stover quality’ Herrero et al. in prep

37. Thank you