Presented by Jimmy Smith at the 15th AAAP Animal Science Congress, Bangkok,Thailand, 26-30 November 2012

1. The global livestock agenda
Opportunities and challenges
Jimmy Smith
15th AAAP Animal Science Congress, Bangkok,Thailand
26-30 November 2012

2. Overview
 The global livestock sector
• Magnitude
• Diversity
• Dynamic
• Important for global development challenges
 Trends in the global livestock sector
• Consumption
• Food production
• Trade
Livestock and the environment
Livestock and livelihoods
Livestock and health/nutrition

3. The global
livestock sector

4. The global livestock sector
 17 billion domestic
animals
 Asset value $1.4
trillion
 Employs 1.3 billion
people
 Uses one third of the
earth’s ice free
surface
4

5. Four out of the five highest value global
commodities are livestock

6. Livestock contribution to AgGDP
Livestock
GDP
5.6% 3.8% 2.4% 2.4%
4.0% 4.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%
6
(Figures in bars are annual growth rates)
FAO, 2012

7. Diversity in the livestock sector
 From…..  To…..
 Few animals  00,000s of animals
 Multiple functions  Rapid, regular turn over
 Sales – at times of need  Only for income
 Risk mitigation
7

8. Growth scenarios for livestock systems
 ‘Strong growth’
– Where good market access and
increasing productivity provide
opportunities for continued
smallholder participation.
 ‘Fragile growth’
– Where remoteness, marginal land
resources or agro-climatic
vulnerability restrict intensification.
 ‘High growth with externalities’
– Fast changing livestock systems
potentially damaging the
environment and human health
 Different research and development
challenges for poverty, food security,
health and nutrition, environment

9. Livestock and global development challenges
 Feeding the World
– Livestock provide 58 million tonnes of protein annually and 17% of the
global kilocalories.
 Removing poverty
– Almost 1 billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods
 Managing the environment
– Livestock contribute 14 -18% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions;
use 30% of the freshwater used for agriculture and 30% of the ice free
land
– Transition of livestock systems – huge opportunity to impact on future
environment
 Improving human health
– Zoonoses and contaminated animal source foods
– Malnutrition and obesity
9

10. Animal source foods and global diets
10
FAO, 2012

11. Livestock growth and GDP
11

12. Consumption and production

13. % growth in demand for livestock products
2000 - 2030
13
FAO, 2012

14. Consumption - drivers
 Population: Rising to 9-10 billion  Incomes
 Urbanization
– Since 2008 more people in urban  Supermarkets
than rural areas
 Trade
– Two thirds urban anticipated by
2050
14

15. Supermarkets or informal sector?
 ‘Supermarket revolution’
took off in 1990s
 Increases in market share
vary around the world
 General features
• Impacts the rich first
• Vertical integration of food markets
• Threat to smallholder participation
 Effects not same
for all products
• First in processed foods
(flour, oil, condiments)
• Last in fresh foods
(meat, dairy, fruits and veg)
Informal milk market ILRI/Mann
80% in India

16. Growing trade in livestock commodities–
with impacts also at local level
FAO: SOFA 2009

17. Food production: From where?
Herrero et al. 2009

18. Food production: By whom?
 Today: 50 – 75% of livestock production in Africa and Asia
from small farms (less than 2ha; 2 TLU)
 Future: Small or large farms?
 Large commercial farms pro-efficiency
(foreign capital investment)
 Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor
 Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour
 Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and
better management of ecosystems services?
 Smallholder sector fragmented:
What actors are needed to support it?
 Trajectory of change?

19. Livestock and
the environment
19

20. Climate change
What will happen to feed resources? diseases? productivity?
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050
Courtesy of Andy Jarvis

21. Global greenhouse gas efficiency
per kg of animal protein produced
Large inefficiencies in the developing world–
an opportunity?
Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

22. Production efficiency – developed countries
Feed, breed,
health =
4 fold milk
increase
22
Capper et al., 2009

23. Estimated GHG emissions per kg of FPCM at farm gate,
averaged by main
regions and the world
23
FAO, 2010

24. Trade-offs:
Environment−livelihoods
 Use of biomass–
for soil or feed (or fuel)
 Reduction of
animal numbers–
implications for
livelihoods
 Producing
with smaller
environmental
footprint

25. Livestock and livelihoods
 Livestock production and
marketing are essential
for the livelihoods of
almost 1 billion
 Two-thirds are women
 1.3 billion people
employed in livestock
value chains globally
25

26. Role of animals
Multiple
 Comparing cattle systems in Kenya, Zambia and Sri Lanka:
– Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping came from non-market,
intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing
– Insurance:
– Financing:
 Livestock - an inflation-proof savings/investment
 Manure, traction, social
26
ILRI/Mann

27. Livestock and human health
27

28. Livestock and human disease
# ##
# ## # #
# #
#
#
# #
#
#
# ## #
# # #
• Animal-source foods are the
# #
# ######
# ###
###
###### # Disease s
# ### #
# ##
###
# #
# #
# ##
### # # # Anthrax
## ## #
# # #
#
# # Av ian Influe nza
# # # #
# ## # #
# # # Botulis m
##
biggest contributor to food- #
#
#
#
#
Bovine TB
Brucellosis
C. difficile
Cryptos por idium
borne diseases. # # #
# Diarrhea
# #
# Dysentery
# #
# # # # Foodborne Illness
# #
#
# # # # Gastr oenteritis
#
# # # # #
# #
# # # #
# #
# # # Le ptospirosis
•
# # #
# # Salm one lla
Diseases transmitted from
# # #
# #
# ## # # # #
#
# # ## #
# #
# #
# #
# # Trichinosis
# # # #
# ##
#
#
#
# #
#
#
# Waterborne Illne ss
# #
# #
# # #
#
livestock and livestock
# # ## #
# # #
# # #
## # ## # #
# # # ## ##
# ##
# # #
# #
##
## # #
# # # ###
#
# # # ###
# #
# #
# ## # #
##
products Population D ens ity (person per sq km)
0-5
5 - 10 #
#
#
#
#
# #
10 - 25
kill more people each year
#
25 - 50 # # # #
# #
50 - 100 #
# #
100 - 250 # #
#
250 - 500 # # # ## #
#
# # ## # #
than HIV or malaria. 500 - 1000
1000 - 2500
2500 - 5000
#
# #
#
## # #
#
#
#
# # #
#
#
##
#
#
##
#
#
#
##
5000 - 10000 # # N
•
#
100000 - 250000 #
# #
One new human disease
#
#
#
#
25000 - 50000 #
# #
50000 - 100000 #
# #
#
#
emerges every 2 months and
##
2000 0 2000 4000 Kilometers
20% of these come from
livestock.

29. To eat or not to eat . . .
meat, milk and fish
1 billion 2 billion
undernourished overweight

30. Research challenges
and opportunities

31. Informing the global research agenda
Biophysical research
• Addressing productivity (feed-breed-health)
• Enhancing efficient animal production – environmental issues
• Addressing and informing livestock-human nutrition
• Disease challenges
• Practical environmental solutions
Institutional
• Incentives and institutional arrangements for environmental
stewardship – payment for ecosystem services
• Market and service provision models
• Business enterprise models
• Evidence to guide public and private sector roles and investments in
livestock
Livestock systems transition
• An opportunity to address future food needs
• Diversity of starting points and solutions
• Research-for-development to address transition:
– Environmentally, socially, economically equitable and sustainable -
INCLUSIVE

32. ….research that enhances understanding and targeting options
and provides biophysical and institutional solutions must be
combined to enhance the transition of today’s smallholder
livestock farms through inclusive growth to be a vibrant part of
the food, poverty alleviation, environmental and health
solutions for the future………….
32

33. better lives through livestock
ilri.org
The presentation has a Creative Commons license. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.