1. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations

2. PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin dotEarth, New York Times Sybil Seitzinger International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Deborah Rogers International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change Gisbert Glaser Senior Policy Advisor International Council for Science

3. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship Professor Sybil Seitzinger Executive Director International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

5. Antarctic ice core Modern humans appear in Africa Carbon dioxide Methane Carbon dioxide Temperature Methane Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008. Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

6. Antarctic ice core Beyond natural boundaries Methane Carbon dioxide Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008. Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

7. Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004 Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling Source: GRIP icecore data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

8. IGBP Climate-change index Global carbon dioxide Arctic sea-ice minimum Global surface temperature Global sea level

9. IGBP Climate-change index

10. The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure

11. Population US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

12. Total real GDP Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

13. Foreign direct investment World Bank (2002) data and statistics IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

14. Damming of rivers World Commission on Dams (2000) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

15. Water use Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

16. Fertiliser consumption International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

17. Urban population The State of the World’s Cities (2001) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

18. Paper consumption Pulp and paper international (1993) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

19. Motor vehicles Global environmental outlook (2000) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

20. Telephones Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World Bank IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

21. International tourism World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

22. Shrimp farm production IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

23. Domesticated land IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

24. Planetary response

25. Atmospheric CO2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

26. Atmospheric N2O concentration Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

27. Atmospheric CH4 concentration Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

28. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

29. Ozone depletion IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

30. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

31. Natural climatic disasters IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

32. Fisheries exploitation IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

33. Coastal zone nitrogen flux IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

34. Biodiversity loss IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

35. Great acceleration IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

36. “Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.” Ban Ki-Moon

37. A resilient Earth System

38. Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament

39. Where are the thresholds in the Earth system? Photograph by Annie Griffiths Belt National Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.

40. Ozone Depletion Climate Change Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Nitrogen Ocean Acidification Phosphorus Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global FreshwaterUse Land System Change Chemical Pollution Rockström et al. 2009

41. 2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum “The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”

42. Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity

43. Planetary Stewardship 2020 2040 2050 2030

44. New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012

45. Planetary and societal risksWhy we need planetary stewardship Professor Sybil Seitzinger Executive Director International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme www.igbp.net Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se