1. Effects of climate change on feed
availability and the implications
for the livestock sector
P. Havlík, D. Leclere, H. Valin, M. Herrero, E. Schmid, M. Obersteiner
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna (BOKU), Austria
Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains: Conference
Accra, Ghana, November 5-6, 2013

2. Introduction
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Climate change impacts on livestock
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Quality and quantity of feed
Heat stress
Diseases and disease vectors
Water
Adaptation response is complex
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Crop management
(sowing dates, fertilizers, irrigation rates,…)
Switch to a different production system
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irrigated  rainfed
grass based  mixed crop livestock)
Switch to a different production activity
(new crop, livestock species,…)
Change in the volume of production
Source: Arblaster et al. 2013 (IPCC AR5)
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Modeling tools need to be adapted
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2
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Climate change is a global phenomenon
CC impacts vary across space
CC impacts natural environment
Adaptation in production
 global context
 high spatial resolution
 link to biophysical models
 explicit technology

3. Methodological approach

Modelling chain integration
Climate
Biophysical
Economic
General
circulation
models:
5 GCMs
Global
gridded
crop models:
EPIC
LPJmL
Partial
equilibrium
model:
GLOBIOM

HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M
x 2 Crop models
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EPIC, LPJmL
 uncertainty across 10 different inputs
3
ΔYield
Yield, Area,
Consumption,
Trade change
5 GCMs

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ΔT°C
ΔPrec.
ΔCO2

4. Gridded structure for crop and grass
HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil
Altitude class, Slope class,
Soil Class
PX5
PX5
Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;
Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;
LC&LUstat
Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;
Simulation Units (SimU)
 HRU
 50x50km grid
 Country boundaries
> 200.000 SimUs
Country
HRU*PX30
SimU delineation related
statistics on LC classes and
Cropland management systems
PX5
reference for geo-coded data on crop management;
input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;
4
Source: Skalský et al. (2008)

5. Cropland productivity from EPIC
EPIC
Evaporation
and
Transpiration
Rain, Snow,
Chemicals
Surface
Flow
Below Root
Zone
Subsurface
Flow

6. Grasslands productivity
(t/ha DM)
6
Source: EPIC model

7. GLOBIOM: model general structure
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7
Partial equilibrium model on land use at global scale
(endogenous prices balance supply and demand)
 Agriculture, forestry and bioenergy
 30 economic regions
 Bilateral trade flows
Supply defined at the grid cell resolution
 Bottom-up sectoral models for biophysical consistency
 Explicit technology by production system
All market balanced consistent with FAOSTAT
Optimization of the social welfare
 Maximizing producer + consumer surplus
 Non-linear expansion costs
 Resource and technology constraints
Long term: base year 2000, recursively dynamic (10 year periods)

8. 8

9. Livestock sector coverage
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Livestock categories:
Gridded Livestock of World
(Wint and Robinson 2007)
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Bovines: Dairy & Other
Sheep & Goats: Dairy & Other
Poultry: Laying hens, Broilers,
Mixed
Pigs
Production systems:
Seré and Steinfeld (1996) classification
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Ruminants
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Monogastrics
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Grass based: Arid, Humid,
Temperate/Highlands
Mixed crop-livestock: Arid, Humid,
Temperate/Highlands
Smallholders
Industrial

10. Production systems parameterization
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Reconciliation with FAOSTAT data
Herrero, Havlík et al., forthcoming
10

11. Results: biophysical impact on feed
Change in yield compared to NoCC [%]
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12. Impact on production
Change compared to 2000 [%]
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13. Impact on prices
Change compared
to 2000 [%]
13
Change compared to NoCC [%]

14. Composition of ruminant diets by production system
World average [%]
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15. Adaptation through livestock systems switches
Absolute change in percentage shares of ruminants by system
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16. Land use requirements
Land cover change between 2000 and 2050 [Mha]
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17. Food availability
Change to 2000 [%]
17
Change to NoCC [kcal/cap/day]

18. Trade
Absolute change in share: net trade / (supply+demand)
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19. Conclusions

When looking at feed availability
 Impact of climate change on livestock is expected to be positive
 Ruminant production benefits more than monogastric systems
 Increase pressure from grassland expansion
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But still uncertain
 Depends on crop model and response to CO2 fertilization
 Adaptation responses matter
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Production systems switches
Possibilities of reallocation to least affected regions
Trade
Further research on this field should benefit from integrated
modelling approaches to capture links between
grassland, cropland and the livestock production and markets

20. Thank you for your attention
Questions…
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20
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