1. VARMEPLAN
Hovedstaden
VARMEPLAN
Hovedstaden
Heat Planning for the Greater
Copenhagen area
Karsten Hedegaard, MSc Eng, PhD
Ea Energy Analyses
ETSAP workshop, November 17, 2014

2. VARMEPLAN
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Agenda
• Background
• Modelling
– The Balmorel model
– Modelling the district heating system of the
Greater Copenhagen area
• Analysis approach and Results
• Conclusions

3. VARMEPLAN
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Background
• Sustainable district heating is the goal
– Environmentally - goal of CO2 neutrality already by
2025
– Economically
– Security of supply – biomass dependency
• Which district heating solutions should be
chosen?
• CTR, HOFOR, and VEKS have carried out the
project with Ea Energy Analyses as consultant

4. VARMEPLAN
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MODELLING
4

5. VARMEPLAN
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The Balmorel model (1)
• Optimization model
– investments and operation
– minimises total system costs
• Sectors
– Electricity, district heating
– Individual heating, industri, road
transport
• Bottom-up model with detailed
technology representation
• Geographical resolution:
Countries, regions and areas
• Open source

6. VARMEPLAN
Hovedstaden
The Balmorel model (2)
• Deterministic
• Assumes perfect competition
• Time resolution flexible
• Computation time: minutes to days
• Linear programming
– Economic dispatch problem
• Or Mixed Integer Programming
– Unit commitment and
Economic dispatch problem

7. VARMEPLAN
Hovedstaden
The Balmorel model (3)
7
• Demands
• Variation profiles
• Existing/planned
capacities
• Resource limitations
• Fuel and CO2 prices
• Technology data
• Policies
• …
Output
Minimize costs
subject to
• Supply/demand balances
• Resource constraints
• Technology constraints
• Transmission constraints
• Policy targets
• …
Objective function &
constraints
• Investments in production,
storage and transmission
• Electricity & heat
generation
• Transmission
• Fuel consumption
• CO2 emissions
• Costs
• …
Input
Simplified illustration

8. Condensing
Extraction
Backpressure
Heat only boiler
Electric heating
Electricity storage
Heat storage
Intermittent electricity
generation

9. VARMEPLAN
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Wind integration
in East Canada and North-
East USA
District heating analysis
Analysis of geothermal heat in
DK
Heat Plan for Greater
Copenhagen
Danish Commission for climate
change: 100% Renewable
energy
+ many other projects
Transmission
interconnector study
Estonia
Energy scenarios 2030
and 2050 for Estonia
Wind power in Estonia
System adequacy in
Lithuania
Wind integration
in Heilongjiang
2050 Scenarios for
China
Post-Kyoto Energy
Scenarios
for the Baltic Sea Region
East African Power
Pool:
Regional Master Plan
update
An Energy Policy for
Mauritius
South Africa: Costs and
benefits of renewable
energy
Transmission lines and new
generation (hydro and coal)
West African Power Pool
See: www.eaea.dk/themes/111_theme_modelling_of_energy_systems.html for project description and reports
Balmorel modelling framework:
selected studies

10. VARMEPLAN
Hovedstaden
The Greater Copenhagen area
today

11. :
District heating grid model for the Greater
Copenhagen area (2025-2035)

12. VARMEPLAN
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APPROACH AND RESULTS
12

13. VARMEPLAN
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Analysis approach
Long term investment
optimizations, 2050
socio-economic
Near term investment
optimizations, 2020-2035
business-economic
Base load analysis
Assessment of local
technology potentials
heat pumps, geothermal
heating, solar thermal etc.
Attactive technologies,
long term
Technology potentials
Attactive technologies,
short term
Economically reasonable
base load level
2035-scenarios
defined
and analyzed
- Capacities defined
- 3 different
development paths
- Operation optimization

14. VARMEPLAN
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Long term investment optimization,
socio-economic, 2050
14
EU wind
DK wind
EU wind
DK biomass
EU biomass
DK wind
EU biomass
DK biomass
Large heat pumps
Solar heating
Solid biomass, CHP
Green gas, CHP
Waste incineration, Boilers
Waste incineration, CHP
Excess heat from
production of biofuels
The Greater Copenhagen area
Biomass/
waste CHP
key role
Heat pumps
and solar
thermal
when
biomass
limited in DK

15. VARMEPLAN
Hovedstaden
Long term investment optimization,
socio-economic, 2050
15
EU wind
DK wind
EU wind
DK biomass
EU biomass
DK wind
EU biomass
DK biomass
Large heat pumps
Solar heating
Solid biomass, CHP
Green gas, CHP
Waste incineration, Boilers
Waste incineration, CHP
Excess heat from
production of biofuels
The Greater Copenhagen area
Biomass/
waste CHP
key role
Heat pumps
and solar
thermal
when
biomass
limited in DK
800-850
MW-heat

16. VARMEPLAN
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Scenarios set up for 2035
Reference Alternative 1 Alternative 2
MW-heat Reference Alternative 1 Alternative 2
Heat pumps
and
Geothermal
18 MW-heat 300 MW-heat
Hereof heat pumps:
145 MW from industrial surplus
heat, waste water and
drinking water
80 MW from sea water
Geothermal: 75 MW
600 MW-heat
Hereof heat pumps:
145 MW from industrial surplus
heat, waste water and
drinking water
150 MW from sea water
Geothermal: 305 MW
Solar thermal 0.5 PJ 1 PJ
Biomass &
Waste CHP
≈ 2065 MW-heat ≈ 1730 MW-heat ≈ 1480 MW-heat

17. VARMEPLAN
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Heat generation in 2035
17
Peak load
Heat pumps and
geothermal heat
Solar thermal
Straw
Wood pellets
Wood chips
Biomass waste
Waste
Heatgeneration(PJ)
Reference Alternative 1 Alternative 2

18. VARMEPLAN
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Business-economic costs and
biomass consumption, 2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Reference
Alternative1
Alternative2
Reference
Alternative1
Alternative2
Cost minimization Prioritization of heat pumps
and geothermal heat
Heatgenerationcosts(MDKK/Year)
Biomassconsumption(PJ)
Biomass consumption
(PJ)
Heat generation costs
(MDKK/year)

19. VARMEPLAN
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Conclusions
• Biomass and waste CHP will continue to play a
key role in the district heating system of the
Greater Copenhagen area
• However, technology diversification important
to reduce biomass dependency
– Alternative 1 is considered an attractive scenario:
CHP, heat pumps, geothermal, and solar thermal
• Local heat pump potentials are limited
19

20. VARMEPLAN
Hovedstaden
• Billeder
Thank you for
your attention
Karsten Hedegaard, MSc Eng, PhD
Ea Energy Analyses
Copenhagen, Denmark
www.ea-energianalyse.dk/