1. Social and
economic
systems
John Sawdon
Seng Somnchamnavong
Try Thuon
Paul Wyrwoll
International Centre for
Environmental Management
Bangkok, 28th March 2013

2. Contents
• Baseline
• Impact and vulnerability
• Adaptation
• Cross-sector analysis

3. BASELINE

4. Key socio-economic trends in the LMB
• Poverty: Falling poverty, but still widespread
• Population: Falling fertility, but current population (≈65m) to
rise and peak to 2050
• Migration: Rural-urban, rural-rural, inter-regional
• Food security: Falling over time, but high vulnerability
remains in many areas; food price fluctuations
• Agricultural production: Movement towards commercial
production;  trade in agricultural commodities
• Hydropower development and land concessions:
Transformation of ecosystems and local economies in rural
areas (mainly Lao PDR and Cambodia)

5. 1. The rural poor are dependent on ecosystem
services
2. Livelihood portfolios are highly diverse
3. Small-holder and subsistence family-based
production is dominant (70-80%) – and will be for
decades to come
4. Even subsistence farmers purchase a large share of
their food
5. All countries in the basin contain particular groups
whom remain chronically poor, or are vulnerable to
poverty and food insecurity
Key characteristics of rural livelihoods in the LMB

6. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR
Source: WFP
2007 Own production
 Fishing/Hunting
 Gathering
 Purchase
 Other source

7. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR
Source: WFP
2007
1
 Own production
 Fishing/Hunting
 Gathering
 Purchase
 Other source

8. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR
Source: WFP
2007
1
2
 Own production
 Fishing/Hunting
 Gathering
 Purchase
 Other source

9. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR
Source: WFP
2007
1
2
3
 Own production
 Fishing/Hunting
 Gathering
 Purchase
 Other source
71%

10. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR
Source: WFP
2007
1
24
3
 Own production
 Fishing/Hunting
 Gathering
 Purchase
 Other source
71%

11. 5. Vulnerability to
poverty and food
insecurity
• Rates of severe poverty
(<$1.25) have declined
significantly
• Significant proportions of the
population remain below the $2
threshold
• Still greater number remain
vulnerable to poverty:
- Cambodia – approx. 65% < $2.5
- Lao PDR – approx. 78% < $2.5
- Viet Nam - approx. 58% < $2.5
Source: WDI 2013

12. NTFPsAgriculture
Fisheries LivestockLivelihoods
Health Infrastructure

13. The significance of health and infrastructure for livelihoods
• Inadequate health limits the
capacity of individuals to engage in
livelihood activities
• Infrastructure enables households
and communities to pursue and
benefit from livelihood activities
• Rural infrastructure: Physical,
stationary infrastructure such as
roads, bridges, housing, water
supply, irrigation infrastructure, and
grain storage

14. Health: Child mortality in LMB countries
• Improvements in health conditions generally, but limited
access in many areas and remaining high vulnerability

15. Infrastructure: Water supply
• Note that improved water source ≠ safe water source
• Despite broad improvements, weak and insufficient
infrastructure in many remote rural areas, particularly roads

16. IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY

17. Vulnerability and impact assessment (CAM)
• Health key impacts:
– Heat stress
– Water-borne disease
– Vector-borne disease
– Physical injury or death caused
by extreme weather
• Infrastructure key impacts:
– Damage and destruction caused by
extreme weather
– Lack of access to infrastructure
– Gradual degradation over time
• Focus on direct impacts for both sectors

18. Ecological zones Livelihood zones
 Forested uplands
 Intensively used uplands
 Lowland plains and plateaus
 Floodplain
 Delta

19. Livelihood zone summary

20. Livelihood zones and Hot Spot provinces
Forested uplands (FU), Intensively used uplands (IUU),
Floodplain (F), Lowland plains and plateaus (LPP), Delta (D)

21. Livelihood zones in Mondulkiri province

22. Very High Vulnerability – Health Summary
• Key threats by province (zone):
- Chiang Rai: flooding (F)
- Gia Lai: temperature rise (IUU), flash floods and
landslides (IUU)
- Khammouan: floods (LPP, F), flash floods and landslides
(FU)
- Kien Giang: floods (D)
- Mondulkiri: temperature rise (FU, LPP), drought (LPP),
floods (LPP)

23. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Mondulkiri – LPP, FU)
Threat: Temperature rise
Impact: Heat stress
• Days exceeding 35°C to rise
from 5% to 25% on annual basis
• 35°C (sustained) threshold for
heat stress
• Outdoor livelihoods
• Lack of infrastructure (electricity
limited in rural areas)
• High poverty (37%) and poor
health access (maternal
mortality within 1 month = 7.2%)

24. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Khammouan – LPP, F)
Threat: Flooding
Impact:  incidence of water-
borne, vector-borne disease
• 20% increase in rainfall at
beginning and end of wet season
• Post-flood stagnant water pools
provide disease vector breeding
ground (e.g. mosquitoes)
• Lack of access to safe drinking
water during flood events
• Poor health: on average each
woman death of one child (survey)

25. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure Summary
• Key threats by province (zone):
- Chiang Rai: flooding (F)
- Gia Lai: flash floods and landslides (IUU)
- Khammouan: floods (LPP, FU), flash floods and
landslides (FU)
- Kien Giang: floods (D)
- Mondulkiri: landslides (FU), floods (LPP)

26. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Gia Lai - IUU)
Threat: frequency of flash
floods and landslides
Impact: Destruction and
degradation of infrastructure
• 10%-20%  magnitude of
extreme rainfall events
• Land-clearing on sloping land
• Destruction of roads or prevention
of road access
• Destruction/degradation of other
rural infrastructure, such as
buildings, irrigation infrastructure

27. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Kien Giang - D)
Threat: Increased duration and frequency of floods
(sea level rise)
Impact: Extended slow-onset flooding degrading
infrastructure
• ≈ 27% province area projected
to have flood depth >1m for
more than 2 months per year
• Roads and bridges eroded
• Buildings water-damaged or
destroyed
• Groundwater supply
infrastructure contaminated

28. ADAPTATION

29. Additional effects of development on climate change
vulnerability
• Rapid economic growth, but current course is unsustainable
because of the degradation of ecosystem services
• Access to natural resources and ecosystem services is
critical to the vulnerability of rural livelihoods
• Factors affecting ecosystem services:
– Hydropower development
– Land concessions
– Deforestation, illegal logging, poaching
– Population growth and migration
• Climate change placing stress on an already stressed
system

30. Adaptation context
• Current study seeks to provide potential adaptation options in
areas with similar social and ecosystem characteristics across
the LMB
• Local application would require dedicated research and
community participation into climate change impacts and
specific vulnerabilities, as well as appropriate cross-sectoral
adaptation strategies

31. Categories of adaptation strategies – Health
1. Addressing the adaptation deficit due to poor health
access (in both physical and economic terms)
2. Centralised warning and response systems for vector-
borne and water-borne disease
3. Incorporating climate change into the design, technology,
and location of health-related infrastructure
4. Protection of ecosystem services that support community
food security and health

32. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Mondulkiri – LPP, FU)
Threat: Higher maximum temperatures
Impact: Heat stress
Examples of potential adaptation strategies:
• Improve maternal and pediatric healthcare, including child
immunization programs
• Improve access to safe water and sanitation, including
covered groundwater bores, rainwater tanks, water
treatment technology, and covered latrines
• Construction of heat respite community
centres for the benefit of vulnerable groups
• Education programs regarding heat stress

33. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Khammouan – LPP, F)
Threat: Increased frequency and duration of floods
Impact:  incidence of water-borne, vector-borne disease
Examples of potential adaptation strategies:
• Strengthen institutional capacity for provision of
forecasting, early warning systems, and effective response
for flooding and water-borne and vector-borne disease
• Education programs regarding water-borne disease

34. Categories of adaptation strategies – Infrastructure
1. Implementation and maintenance of community-based
bioengineering projects
2. Revision of design standards to incorporate climate
change
3. Revision of infrastructure planning given threats posed
by climate change, particularly the location of key
infrastructure such as roads, community buildings, and
dwellings
• Bioengineering refers to the use of vegetation and natural
materials to improve slope and shoreline stability

35. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Gia Lai - IUU)
Threat: Increased frequency of flash floods and
landslides
Impact: Destruction and degradation of infrastructure
Examples of potential adaptation strategies:
• Reforestation and other locally managed bioengineering
initiatives in riparian and sloping areas, especially those
linked to strategic rural infrastructure
• Climate-sensitive design, siting and
maintenance of major infrastructure in
areas highly vulnerable to extreme events

36. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Kien Giang - D)
Threat: Increased duration and frequency of floods
Impact: Extended slow-onset flooding degrading
infrastructure
Examples of potential adaptation strategies:
• Improvements to canal networks that are required to cope
with more intense flood events, particularly to ensure
effective drainage of fields and waterways
• Strengthen natural coastal protection from
inundation through community-based
rehabilitation and protection programs,
particularly for mangrove ecosystems

37. CROSS-SECTOR ANALYSIS

38. Socio-economic overview of Mondulkiri
• Population: ~ 47,000 (2004); ~ 62,000 (2010)
• Poverty: Poorest province in Cambodia: 37% by national
standards
• Food security: Classified as chronically food insecure by
World Food Programme in 2009
• Livelihoods:
– Mix of subsistence and commercial activities
– Reliance on natural resources
– Multiple activities

39. NTFPsAgriculture
Fisheries LivestockLivelihoods
Health Infrastructure

40. Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri
• Agriculture: 3% rice yield, cassava suitability
 Food security and health; gathering NTFPs;
livestock feed availability
• Natural systems: resin production, earthworm habitat
 Income for food security and health, investments in
livestock and infrastructure; decline in trapeang
ecosystems that support livestock and NTFPs

41. Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri
• Livestock: drought and flash floods cause
livestock fatalities
 Food security and health; fishing; capacity to
invest in agriculture
• Fisheries: migratory white fish that are important
seasonal harvest production for subsistence households
 time available agriculture and NTFP collecting for
the rest of the year

42. Cross-sector climate change impacts: Mondulkiri
• Health: temperature generates heat stress conditions
 Illness labour productivity in agriculture, NTFPs
• Infrastructure: flooding damages roads and reduces
access, thereby isolating communities
 water-borne disease and causing health impacts;
reduced access to NTFPs
• Above discussion focuses on just some 2nd order effects
not 3rd or 4th order; multiple and enduring feedbacks
within the system

43. Climate change has a multiplier effect across sectors,
not simply an additive impact
Mondulkiri illustration

44. Integrated Adaptation
• Integrated policies, structures, procedures and tools
• Use of local knowledge and community participation
pivotal to success
• Spatial planning is foundation for adaptation at site level
• Recognise the trade-offs involved between sectors when
preparing area-wide adaptation plans
• Seek out ‘win-win’ solutions, or complementary
approaches, available across sectors
– Efficient
– Mutually reinforcing
– Likely to achieve wide stakeholder support

45. THANK YOU