C. Breisinger, IFPRI

1. Investments, institutions and
incentives for achieving food and
water security
Presenter:
Clemens Breisinger
This presentation is based on research from
Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Claudia Ringler, Mark Rosegrant, Tingju Zhu
et al. (all International Food Policy Research Institute - IFPRI)

2. This presentation:
1. Water projections with IFPRI’s IMPACT model
2. Investment requirements
3. Institutions and incentives
4. Data challenges
5. Conclusions and policy implications

3.  Irrigation is key for securing future food supply
• Accounting for less than 20% of global cropland
• Contributing ~40% of global cereals production
• Key to boosting agricultural productivity (think about
intensification…)
 Irrigation is the largest water user
• 70% global water withdraw
• 90% global water consumption
 Irrigation is seen as major driver of water scarcity
 Access to drinking water matters!
Water, Irrigation and Food Security
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012

4. IFPRI’s IMPACT model
:

5. Already today (!), water-scarce regions account
for 36% of global population (2.5 Bn) and 9.4
trillion USD (22%) of global GDP
How many people live in water short
areas (%)?
How much GDP is generated in water
scarce regions (%)?
> 50
< 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
No data
> 40%
20 - 40%
0 - 20%
2010
36
18
46
> 40%
0 - 20%
19
22
2010
20 - 40%
59
2010
2.5 Bn people
9.4 trillion USD2
Water stress, percent of total renewable water
withdrawn
1 >40% water stress
2 Year 2000 prices
Source: IFPRI team analysis, based on IFPRI’s IMPACT model

6. How much and what kind of investments in
water and related sectors are needed?
• Baseline and “grey” scenarios
• High investment in agricultural research
• Low investment in agricultural research
• High investment in agricultural research plus
– Irrigation expansion and water use efficiency
– Rural roads
– Access to drinking water
– Secondary female education
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

7. In a “grey” scenario and without productivity
investment, water stress will increase with an
additional 450 m people and 5.6 trillion GDP at risk
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI, 2011

8. For Arab countries and many other dry land countries,
water stress will pose a risk to economic growth
Size of bubble reflects size of population
Source: IFPRI team analysis
Water stress 2050 over GDP growth 2010-2050 – Medium growth

9. Even highly industrialized countries like US will
face critical water scarcity without investing in
water productivity
Source: IFPRI team analysis, based on IFPRI’s IMPACT model

10. Annual investment requirements:
Alternative Scenarios
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

11. With significant water productivity investments, ~1 bn
people and 17 trillion USD of GDP can be moved into
areas of lower water scarcity
Source: Veolia Water & IFPRI 2011

12. Reduction in the number of malnourished children
in developing countries, 2000, 2025, 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

13. However, investments alone are not sufficient:
Policies, institutions and incentives at
different levels matter!
Source: Ruth Meinzen Dick 2013, based on CAPRi box framework .

14. Coordination institutions
• Can be provided by:
– State (a public tubewell that supplies many farms),
– Collective action (farmer group)
– Markets (farmer selling water).
• Which is most appropriate depends on:
– Scale
– Technical sophistication of technology and farmers
– Cultural factors (social capital, market orientation)
– Capacity of state, market institutions, etc.
Source: Ruth Meinzen Dick 2013

15. Farm level: management practices for
more efficient water use
• Enhanced water infiltration: mulching; deep tillage;
contour farming; special terraces (e.g., flat-channel)
• Decrease soil water evaporation: conservation tillage
(e.g., no-till or minimum till)
• Deficit irrigation: apply predetermined percentage of
calculated potential plant water
• Advanced irrigation technology (drip, micro-sprinkler,
real-time management)

16. Policy level: Economic incentives for
efficient water use
• Establish water rights for users
• Restructure subsidies that distort production
decisions
• Invest savings in activities that boost farm output
and income, especially for the poor

17. Action and research for improving food
and water security requires data and tools

18. Water from an ARAB SPATIAL perspective

19. Oil-food-income

24. Policy recommendations
• Without additional investments in water, food
insecurity will rise
• Increase investment in household water supply and
sanitation and irrigation, emphasizing technology
(drip, micro-sprinkler, real-time management)
• Restructure subsidies that distort production decisions
and invest savings in activities that boost farm output
and income
• Investments alone are not sufficient, improved
institutions and incentives are necessary
• For effective policymaking, we need to improve access
and analysis of data