13. Necessary elements of the future EU strategic process
Foresight (I) > Insight (II) > Strategy (III) > Action (IV)
14. • Strategic process:
– Strategic Intelligence – cast wide
– Stronger systematic sense-making using SI data – role of
experts and individuals
– Sense making strong link to Selecting priorities
– Political dynamics & Member States important in Selecting
Priorities
• “Hub”
– NODE (close to decision-makers) to give access and be an
anchor for effectiveness;
– also to act as an INTERFACE to translate issues and engage at
the right time
– NETWORK to provide a broad range of outside sources,
antennas across EU and beyond; increasingly involves semiautomated scanning
16. • Need for sponsor – what question are we trying
to answer?
–
–
–
–
–
–
Exploring different visions
Analysing trends
Analysing drivers
Creating different scenarios
Building the strategy options
Selection of priorities
• Links from Strategic Intelligence and to
Selecting Priorities
10/25/13
16
17. How to integrate the process into real life?
Example – preparing H2030
Activity
Process management
2012
2013
2014
2015
St art
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mid-term evaluation of H2020
Phase I
Involves
European
Parliament and
Commission.
Strategic intelligence
Phase II
Sense-making
Phase III
Selecting priorities
Phase IV
Implementation
Involves input
from
knowledge
stakeholders
and MS
Involves MS
and
Commission.
Involves
Council.
Involves MS and
Commission.
The process is NOT linear but cyclic with constant feedback (Ref. Slide No 3).
10/25/13
17
18. If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter
eSAMI ---- please ask – esami@samiconsulting.co.uk.
For details of our training courses (with the
Horizon Scanning Centre of the Foresight
Unit) see www.samiconsulting.co.uk.
For details of our Blowing the Cobwebs off our Mind
events, please ask,
cobwebs@samiconsulting.co.uk.
Questions and comments??
18
Notas do Editor
{"11":"What is needed is a more balanced organisation, in which the mechanisms for adapting to change – connecting the operating environment into processes to update the assets.\nFuturists are likely to be Foxes\nPart of renewal of organisation\nMay be consultant or staff\nNeed to work across the organisation\nNeed to understand how to work with Hedgehogs\nSad tale at Defra\nSad tale of intelligent toothpaste\nSo what does this imply for the role of futurists?\nIs it gun for hire?\nMcKinsey?\nGuru?\nCourt jester?\n","6":"To explore this issue we have developed a double cone model of an organisation.\nThe upper cone is the existing organisation, concerned with efficiency, risk and performance. This balances on the ball bearing, the asset allocation processes that set the priorities for the organisation – strategic planning, project initiation, budgeting. This is a stable configuration if the environment is benign and growth steady, the cone can balance on the ball bearing.\nIn a turbulent world we need to be sure that there is a solid base, a solid lower cone, supporting the ball bearing – the project initiation and asset allocation processes – and hence the upper cone.\nHowever, connecting the ball bearing to the present and future environment are the activities that leaders feel they are worst at – new product development, technology strategy, innovation culture, employee involvement, shared vision. \nWhat these activities can degenerate into is a set of ad hoc activities, lobbying by Divisional Directors, etc.\nHow can this lower cone become a place that leaders are confident and organisations effective - how to be effective at the activities needed for renewal? \n","7":"Four types of professional\nGun for hire – knows his bit & does as he is told\n“McKinsey” – brought in when the organisation knows what the problem is but needs the comfort of “McKinsey said”\nGurus tell organisations the answer – often the same answer whatever the question\nCourt jester when neither the organisation nor the consultant know the answer\n","8":"Chair of TCBE Futures Council 1994-9\nonly orgs belong to TCBE – CEOs. FD’s, Marketing etc\nFC set up 30 orgs sent reps\nBy 1999 only 5 left – 12 to line jobs, 12 to become futures consultants\nDifficulty of maintaining credibility through outside recognition while being effective internally\nAll professionals have this problem\nBut extreme for futurists – why?\nThinking styles\n","14":"Foresight, Insight, Strategy, Action \nAka Strategic Intelligence; Sense-Making; Selecting Priorities; Implementation\n","9":"Organisations spend 99% of their time on implementation. For that they need competent line managers. Many very good line managers are focused people, who understand what they have to do and get on and do it. Their thinking patterns are often sequential and they can find discussions of alternatives disturbing. Timescale can be a problem too – I remember going to talk to a line manager about scenarios for 2020 and he asked if that was 20 after 8 that evening or tomorrow\nThis picture suggests that people in different roles have different needs (and wants) for information about future possibilities.\nFuturists like ideas\nScenario people work with mental models\nStrategists think flow diagrams\nCorporate managers need to hit their targets\nLine managers want to know what budget, when who do they have?\nSad tale of Defra\nSad tale of intelligent toothpaste\n","10":"How can line managers communicate with futurists?\nIsaiah Berlin applied a saying from Archilocus “The Fox knows many things, but the Hedgehog knows one big thing” to management.\nEverybody has a bit of both, but most futurists are more Fox than Hedgehog.\n"}