2013 HOW Conference: Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-Related Disease Risk
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Climate change is exacerbating rain-related disease risk. Models project significant increases in the frequency and intensity of intense rainfall events in Wisconsin by 2055 due to climate change. More frequent and intense storms increase the risk of waterborne diseases by overwhelming aging infrastructure and increasing pathogen runoff into water sources. Studies have shown increases in acute gastrointestinal illnesses, especially in children, following heavy rainfall events. Contaminated groundwater from failing septic systems also poses a disease risk. Climate change impacts like more frequent extreme rainfall events threaten greater waterborne disease outbreaks unless infrastructure is upgraded and policies are implemented to mitigate risks.
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2013 HOW Conference: Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-Related Disease Risk
- 1. Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-‐Related Disease Risk Michael Timm Science Communica<on Specialist Center for Water Policy School of Freshwater Sciences University of Wisconsin-‐Milwaukee ma<mm@uwm.edu c. 414.378.0945
- 2. Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-‐Related Disease Risk Michael Campbell COO & Senior Vice President Ruekert/Mielke Inc., Consul<ng Engineers mcampbell@ruekert-‐mielke.com
- 3. Audience: Who are you? • • • • • • • • NGOs? Engineers? Legislators? Policymakers? Scien<sts? Students? Public Health Officers? Others?
- 4. The Problem: Rain-‐related Disease Risk Waterborne Disease Climate Change Failing Infrastructure Stormwater
- 5. Policy Solu<ons: Rain-‐related Disease Risk Statewide Stormwater Standards Incen<vize Private Sewer Repair Disinfect Public Wells Reduce Health Risk
- 7. Energizing storms & loading the dice Adapted from Trenberth 1999
- 8. >?< Historical 2” 24-‐hr storm events per decade for southern Wisconsin Green Bay Packers playoff appearances 2000-‐2010
- 9. 12 13 Historical 2” 24-‐hr storm events per decade for southern Wisconsin Green Bay Packers playoff appearances 2000-‐2010
- 10. Downscaled models by WICCI Significant increase in intense storm frequency by 2055 WICCI 2011
- 11. Historical 25% Expected by 2055 increase in intense storm frequency WICCI 2011
- 12. Historical Expected by 2055 10-‐40% increase in storm intensity WICCI 2011
- 13. More storms for warmer Wisconsin Historical Expected by 2055
- 14. Historically, Wisconsin is weger in some areas and drier in others. Drier areas may face added stormwater burden. NOAA
- 15. Historically we’ve already been geing warmer and weger Data from 1950 to 2006: • Nighime lows temps up ~1-‐4°F • Average annual day<me highs up ~0.5-‐1°F • Southern precipita<on Rainfall over S. Wis. increased by ~2-‐4” • Northern precipita<on decreased by ~1-‐2” 10-‐15% Kucharik et al. 2010
- 16. The past is no longer an adequate guide 1950 ≠ 2006 Shioing trends mean our pipes were not designed or constructed to convey actual or expected flows
- 17. • 90 million gallons of sewage overflows at 61 communi<es • 700 drinking water wells contaminated • $34 million in damage claims paid Slide courtesy of David Liebl, WICCI
- 18. Reedsburg 2008 Baraboo River Flooding Credit: WICCI; UW-‐Extension -‐ David S. Liebl and Bill Bland
- 20. >?< % of U.S. waterborne disease outbreaks (1948-‐1994) preceded by top 20% of most intense storms Breg Favre’s winning percentage (games won / total played)
- 21. 68% 63% Curriero et al. 2001 186 wins & 112 loses
- 22. Waterborne Disease in U.S. • More than half of U.S. waterborne disease outbreaks followed heavy storms • Contaminated water is responsible for between 6% and 40% of diarrhea-‐related illness • Remember Crypto? – 403,000 sick – 69 dead – $96 million costs to society – $406 million in public investment as cure Curriero et al. 2001; Gaffield et al. 2003; Corso et al. 2003
- 23. Acute Diarrhea (AGI) • 10% of U.S. hospital admissions • 300 U.S. kids’ deaths per year • $1 billion in annual costs to U.S. society • Biggest concern is for kids age 5 and under – Less immunity – Smaller body size – More complica<ons Elliot 2007
- 24. Rela<onship between rain & diarrhea • 11% increase in AGI ER visits for kids four days aoer rainfall (2002-‐2007 Children’s Hospital) • Associated with rain, not overflows • Probably underes<mates disease incidence • These kids were primarily served by surface waters, but highlights role of rain in transpor<ng pathogens • Pathway/s not iden<fied in this study Drayna et al. 2010
- 25. Kids seem to be geing more sick from well water than surface water • Another Children’s Hospital study • Top 3 illness risk factors in order of odds ra<os: – Ill contacts in the home (2.52) – Well water (1.38) – Primarily bogled water (1.27) Gorelick et al. 2011
- 26. Viruses in Wisconsin groundwater • Diarrhea linked with sep<c tank proximity in central Wisconsin (Marshfield) – Risk for viral diarrhea increased 8% per addi<onal holding tank per sec<on • Viruses in pre-‐treated drinking water from groundwater, with sources both from river and elsewhere (La Crosse) • Tap water from 14 of 14 non-‐disinfec<ng communi<es tested posi<ve for viruses Borchardt et al. 2003; Borchardt et al. 2004; Borchardt et al. 2012
- 27. 2011 Wis. Act 19 leaves some 60 communi<es vulnerable by not requiring municipal well disinfec<on. ~65,000 people (1.1% of Wis. pop) and about 4,000 kids under age 5 U.S. Census Bureau Seeley in Wisconsin State Journal, 2012
- 28. That’s just municipal systems • Popula<on served by non-‐community public water systems* and private wells is ~1.65 million (28% of state popula<on) *Public non-‐municipal systems include sites like mobile home parks, hotels, churches, schools, etc. Source: Jeff Helmuth
- 29. Viruses in deep Madison groundwater Data from six wells from 2007 to 2009 Bradbury et al. 2013 How are they geing there?
- 30. • Leaky sanitary sewer pipes implicated, transported by recharge from heavy rains Bradbury et al. 2013
- 32. Length of pipe under America >?< Dwight Burdege Distance from Earth to Moon NASA
- 33. 13 billion feet > 1.3 billion feet Dwight Burdege 42 feet of pipe per capita NASA
- 34. Leaky pipes Laid Lifespan Replacement 1880s 1920s 1950s+ 90-‐150 yrs 100 yrs 75 yrs 1970s-‐2030s 2020s 2025+ • Old sewer pipes leak, pathogens get out, especially when hydrology is conducive, e.g. when stormwater changes the game • Old water mains break (1 per 10 miles per year or ~800/day), allowing viruses to seep into municipal distribu<on systems American Water Works Associa<on 2012; Folkman 2012
- 35. Systemic Vulnerability • Even with best treatment, if the distribu<on system is vulnerable, then we remain at risk • Proximity of water and sanitary pipes: WI: 8o; other states, 10o; in reality there is likely communica<on when groundwater tables rise under heavy recharge & stormwater flows • Remember those 14 non-‐disinfected communi<es? The distribuGon system was implicated as the entry point for viruses from sewage. Lamber<ni et al. 2012
- 36. Wisconsin’s es<mated 20-‐yr needs • $2.5 billion for treatment upgrades • $3.5 billion for distribu<on upgrades U.S. EPA 2007 Wisconsin budget priori<es • $94 million in low-‐interest loans for drinking water infrastructure (short of projected 20-‐yr need by a lot) • State highways get $3.6 billion over 2 years Wis 2013 Act 20
- 37. Then there are leaky laterals… Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District
- 38. Sta<c & Dynamic Dioramas Credit: Michael Campbell
- 39. MMSD video on I/I problem • hgp://www.youtube.com/watch? v=4tA7HCFF23c&list=UUe19V3fMPZ0Q9LAvv4 X0SQg&index=14 Cue up <me index 1:24 – 3:46 MMSD
- 41. Policy Priori<es Inventory state’s sewer and water • infrastructure vulnerabili<es. • Disinfect all public municipal wells. Codify comprehensive statewide stormwater • design standards.
- 42. For example: ATCP 48.26 • DRAINAGE CAPACITY. Every district drain constructed aoer July 1, 1995 shall be designed and constructed so that it is capable of removing the volume of water from a 10-‐ year 24-‐hour rainfall event within 48 hours aoer that rainfall event. For each county, a 10-‐ year 24-‐hour rainfall event is the amount of rain shown in table 1 falling in 24 hours.
- 43. Funding Priori<es Invest $3.5 billion through 2027 to bring • Wisconsin’s aging underground infrastructure up to date. The state should assist municipali<es in • incen<vizing the replacement of privately-‐ owned sewer laterals.
- 44. For example: Lateral Replacement Incen<ves • When the city rips up the street • Madison offers 75% of lateral replacement costs from main up to property line • Marshfield forgives replacement costs of lateral under public right-‐of-‐way if private replaced • 90% par<cipa<on w/ opt-‐out default
- 45. Research Priori<es Research human health risks of stormwater • vs. sewage overflows. Access broader health ata sets to clarify • rela<onships between dainfall and disease. r
- 46. Out-‐of-‐box Solu<ons? • Green infrastructure to promote infiltra<on • Waterless toilet infrastructure a la Gates Founda<on Challenge in 2012 • Remapping ci<es and towns to account for hydrology instead of history
- 47. Where’s Our Water? Out of sight, but not out of mind Where’s My Water’s lovable alligator, Swampy, knows a thing or two about failing pipes
- 48. Where’s My Water? app • • • • • • Instant gra<fica<on Addic<ve memes Widely disseminated Youth oriented Makes hidden visible Puts face to issue Use as communicaGon tool to reach your consGtuencies hgp://www.flashgamesplayer.com/Free/Where-‐is-‐my-‐Water/Play.html
- 49. Thank you! Michael Campbell Jenny Kehl Megan Christenson Sandra McLellan Larry Timm Michael Carvan David Liebl Jeff Helmuth Henry “Andy” Anderson Kristen Malecki Jonathan Patz Deb Dila Randy Metzger Greg Barske Tomorra Smith Madeline Gotkowitz Marc Borchardt Jen Yauck Cheryl Nenn MMSD CDC WDPH UWM SFS CWP WICCI Healing Our Waters – Milwaukee, Wisconsin – 2013
- 50. Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-‐Related Disease Risk Policy Briefs hgp://home.freshwater.uwm.edu/mclellanlab/736-‐2/ Contact ma<mm@uwm.edu mcampbell@ruekert-‐mielke.com