1. Hybrid intelligence – foresight for
opportunities
Dr.Youri Aksenov
Royal Philips, IP&S, Business Intelligence
ii-sdv,Nice, April 15, 2013

2. What is it about
An intelligent guess on innovation and business opportunities that
might have a chance in the future
– We don't really know the future. BUT..daily routines for intelligent adaptable entities
are involving predictions of how motions of environment are evolving, what new
things might happen, and where it will all end up.
– Drawing on laws of nature and integrating as much information as possible about a
given society or system, it is possible to recognize patterns of time which will be
completed sometime in the future.
– Foresight: Degree of analyzing present contingencies and degree of moving the
analysis of present contingencies across time and degree of analyzing a desired
future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies under
control as well as degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to
arrive at the desired future state 2

3. The endeavor in generally as old as humanity
(out of Eden)

4. BI group within IP&S of Royal Philips
• Business intelligence (as service) is a set of theories, methodologies,
architectures, and frameworks that transform raw data into valuable knowledge
and intelligence solutions for business purposes. BI can help identify, develop
and otherwise create new opportunities. Making use of new opportunities and
implementing an effective strategy can provide a competitive market advantage
and long-term viability
• Business intelligence (as people)
IP search
Market intelligence
Innovation
intelligence
Data services

5. Content
The presentation looks at a framework that facilitates a foresight
endeavor of commercial entities. The framework exploits an interlaced cooperation
of human and machine intelligence and illuminates trends in technologies,
innovation and business opportunities that might have a chance in the future. Core of
the framework comprises scouting for information, structuring,
analyzing, decision making and visualization, whereas patent and IP
information used as a scaffold for the system. Design of a scaffold resembles and concords
to the human way for commercial innovations including parts of new business
creation thinking. The built up mass of intelligence in such a manner opens new dimensions for sense
and facilitates decision making by variety of stakeholders.
The presentation would open discussion on the frame work itself, interfaces along cooperation
between human and machine intelligence and requirements to the machine abilities on
analyses, decision making and visualization.
5

6. Motivation for Approach
Where opportunities lies
Big Challenge -> Research Unit Program
Deep Dive -> Department Program
Brain Storm -> Research project
Product/Technology strategy
Road mapping
New Business opportunities
R&D Program/Project management
Innovation/Technology scouting
Competitive intelligence/trends
IP generation
IP scouting
Partnership
Licensing -in/-out
IP Valuation
WHAT COULD BE SUITABLE SCAFFOLD ?
Assisting in Broad Objective view
All require or part of process for
SML-term foresight

7. Foresight Methods Details
• Morphological Analysis & Relevance Trees - two normative forecasting methods which start with
future needs or objectives, and then seek to identify the circumstances, actions, technologies, etc.
required to meet them.
– A relevance tree is an analytic technique that subdivides a broad topic into increasingly smaller
subtopics thereby showing „all‟ possible paths to the objective, and provides a forecast
– Morphological analysis involves mapping options to obtain an overall perspective of possible
solutions.
• When is this method appropriate?
– Relevance trees - are used:
• to analyze situations in which each successive lower level involves finer distinctions or
subdivisions
• to identify problems and solutions, establish feasibility, select the „optimum‟ solution and
deduce the performance requirements of specific policies, technologies
– The purpose of morphological analysis is:
• to organize information in a relevant and useful way in order to help solve a problem
• stimulate new ways of thinking, used for new product development, constructing scenarios

8. Commercial Innovation process
IDEO + http://www.keithbendis.com/deep_dive.html
Some smell of TRIZ in it PS approach,
Use of commonality in function, properties, object, action, subject

9. Quality Function Deployment, Value Proposition House
The VPH is best described as a tool for alignment and
understanding between several parties (e.g. marketing, R&D; sales;
business), based on real (end)-user understanding. A VPH gives
input to innovation/new product development, communication,
services or business model.

10. Road Mapping
• Market analysis tools (e.g. Experience curve, Porters
five forces, SWOT, STEEP, Concept visioning and
scenario building), which are used predominantly at the
top layer of the roadmap for investigating the market,
and deciding on requirements and needs.
• Technology analysis tools (e.g. bibliometrics, soft
systems methodology, patent analysis, morphology
analysis, analytic hierarchy process), which are used for
identifying, measuring and mapping technology,
knowledge and skills capabilities.
• Supporting tools (e.g. Quality function deployment,
innovation matrix, matrix scoring methods) are applied
to support the development of the roadmap by
processing the data collected during the road mapping
process.
• Other important methods applied in road-mapping are
technology and system readiness levels, technology
foresight and intelligence, linked analysis grids, portfolio
management, valuation tools, balanced scorecard,
Porters value chain and TRIZ.
ITRS as example of complex
RM
System Drivers/Design
Test & Test Equipment
Front End Processes
Process Integration, Devices and Structures
Radio Frequency and Analog/Mixed-Signal
Technologies
Micro-electromechanical Systems (MEMS)
Photolithography
IC Interconnects
Factory Integration
Assembly & Packaging
Environment, Safety & Health
Yield Enhancement
Metrology
Modeling & Simulation
Emerging Research Devices
Emerging Research Materials

11. NBC process in nutshell
Experience

12. RM, Parts
Optics
Electronics
UHP Light
system
Multi-Dimensional Recursive value MAP
(an example)
Ultra High Performance Light System
OEM/ODM
Need to go?
Must to go?
Want to go?
Can go?
Core Unit within an ecosystem looking for
opportunities or better positioning itselfLevel N -
System-Application #
System-Application #+1

13. Multi-Dimensional Recursive value MAP
(cont‟d)
Lamps, DMD, LCD,
Thermal Optics,
Mechanics, Electronics
Projection system
LEVEL N+1 Image Projection System
Information
Delivery
system
Need to go?
Must to go?
Want to go?
Can go?
System-Application #
System-Application #+1

14. Multi-Dimensional Recursive value MAP
(cont‟d)
Projection System
Content
Content delivery
Content processing
Presentation
system
LEVEL N+3 Information presentation
system
Education
mean
Need to go?
Must to go?
Want to go?
Can go?
System-Application #
System-Application #+1

15. Multi-Dimensional Recursive value MAP
(cont‟d)
Education Means
Environment
Subjects
Purpose
Personnel
Training
LEVEL N+3 Military personnel training
Law-
Order,..
Need to go?
Must to go?
Want to go?
Can go?
System-Application #
System-Application #+1

16. Transition to process of Hybrid intelligences from
collection of various human processes
USEful features for a framework
USE OF wide scope
USE OF TRIZ, Porter, Real Options thinking
USE OF multi-dimensional view
USE OF human adopted frameworks
USE Synergy and interface to embed AI
USE advantages of iterations (Ai-Hi)
USE IP as intelligence gravity center, (bus)
USE of sources (NPL, Pub, Com, Gov)
USE self-evolving system approach
USE OF Big Data (@ adequate cost)
USE OF advanced visual analytics
Recursive common interfaces
“Who”
“When”
“Where”
Preceding Objects/Units
Core Object/Unit
Succeeding Objects/Units
Properties
Functions
Problems in-/out-
Solutions in-/out-
Value sources (scien.)
Utilities, USP
Environment spread
(applications/dependencies)
Inside the process and short example
What
How
Why

17. Content
The presentation looks at a framework that facilitates a foresight
endeavor of commercial entities. The framework exploits an interlaced cooperation
of human and machine intelligence and illuminates trends in technologies,
innovation and business opportunities that might have a chance in the future. Core of
the framework comprises scouting for information, structuring,
analyzing, decision making and visualization, whereas patent and IP
information used as a scaffold for the system. Design of a scaffold resembles and concords
to the human way for commercial innovations including parts of new business
creation thinking. The built up mass of intelligence in such a manner opens new dimensions for sense
and facilitates decision making by variety of stakeholders.
The presentation would open discussion on the frame work itself, interfaces along cooperation
between human and machine intelligence and requirements to the machine abilities on
analyses, decision making and visualization.
17

18. Valuation
Opportunities
Technology
paths and spots
Technology
opportunity
Business
opportunity
Phases to realize opportunity spotting
Phase1Phase2Phase3
$ $
$$
$
$

19. Hybrid Process
Question
formulation
Clarifies
the topic
and
prepares
IR
material
Approves
the IR set
and
sourcing
strategy
Retrieves
the
working
material
Approves
the WM
and
assigns
enrichment
scheme
Enrich the
working
material
Approves
the
enrichment
and assigns
construction
mode
Building
relationship
net and
hierarchy,
ontology
Analyses
the nets,
maps,
relations,
ontology
Assess
Sub-
Super-
system
Mappings
Hierarchy
Ontology
…
Assess
gaps,
compatibility
transferability
Scalability
Value Map
QFD‟s, VPH
Zoom and
collection
extra
information
to the grown
interfaces
Transfer,
knowledge
to other
frameworks
Estimates
and assess
the value
based on AI
perspectives
Estimates
and assess
the value
based on
HI
perspectives
Picture of
current
global
state of
affairs

20. Content
The presentation looks at a framework that facilitates a foresight
endeavor of commercial entities. The framework exploits an interlaced cooperation
of human and machine intelligence and illuminates trends in technologies,
innovation and business opportunities that might have a chance in the future. Core of
the framework comprises scouting for information, structuring,
analyzing, decision making and visualization, whereas patent and IP
information used as a scaffold for the system. Design of a scaffold resembles and concords
to the human way for commercial innovations including parts of new business
creation thinking. The built up mass of intelligence in such a manner opens new dimensions for sense
and facilitates decision making by variety of stakeholders.
The presentation would open discussion on the frame work itself, interfaces along cooperation
between human and machine intelligence and requirements to the machine abilities on
analyses, decision making and visualization.
20

21. Knowledge consulting – Artificial expert
Think before asking – initiation unit
Ask the experts
Help of audience
Call a friend
50/50
Change the question

22. MATH
Ontology
Physics
Chemistry
Astrology
Geology
…..
…..
Initiation UNIT – from question to info retrieval
Classical Mechanics
Electricity and Magnetism
Modern Physics
Optics
Thermodynamics
Atomic physics, Acoustics,
Biophysics, Communication
Physics, Engineering physics,
Fluid dynamics, Geophysics, Laser
Physics, Materials physics, Medical
physics, Nanotechnology, Optics,
Optoelectronics, Photonics,
Photovoltaics, Physics of
computation, Plasma physics,
Solid-state devices, Quantum
electronics, Quantum information
science, Mechanics, Kinetmatics,
Dynamics, High pressure physics,
Low-temperature physics, Surface
Physics, Polymer physics
A NEED for an “ai-expert” per domains in form of ontologies,
patent/scientific corpora (tagged, chunked), TRIZ-a-like libraries,
Market/Industries/Products-Nomenclature/Utilities

23. Structuring the ai-expert knowledge
Absorb
Accumulate
Bend
Break Down
Change Phase
Clean
Compress
Concentrate
Condense
Constrain
Cool
Deposit
Destroy
Detect
Dilute
Dry
Evaporate
Expand
Extract
Heat
Hold
Join
Melt
Mix
Move
Orient
Produce
Protect
Purify
Remove
Resist
Vibrate
…
….
Compound
Field
Gas
Liquid
Solid
…
…
Change
Decrease
Increase
Measure
Stabilize
…
…
Brightness
Color
Concentration
Density
Electrical
Conductivity
Energy
Force
Frequency
Friction
Heat Conduction
Homogeneity
Length
Magnetic
Properties
Orientation
Polarization
Position
Power
Pressure
Purity
Rigidity
Shape
Sound
Speed
Strength
Surface Area
Surface Finish
Temperature
Translucency
Viscosity
Volume
Weight
…
…
FUNCTIONS OBJECTS OPERATIONS PROPERTIES
Enriched via synonymy, hyponymy, hypernymy

24. Core set
Bot-to-bot talk under supervision
Time boundaries
Space boundaries
Nomenclature and Phenomena
Functions
Properties
Most informative
objects
Most noisy
objects
Exoset
24
Can be more..
Let‟s link them

25. Enrichment UNIT – scheme an example
• Bounding Semantic analysis
• Creating common understandable interface
• Creating hierarchy levels
• Multi-facet expansion to extra knowledge
• Foundation to initiation the process
• Foundation for following valuations
• Assistant in ecosystem construction

26. Example, document enrichment and transformation
• Title- Beacon light optic i.e. massive optic, for use in beacon light for marking obstructions for e.g. aircraft navigation
unit, has light emitting element placed in front of entrance surface such that light emitting from element enters optic
• Abstract- The optic reduces power consumption and back-up battery capacity. The optic obtains more compact and
more cost effective beacon light. The optic is easy to handle and install. The optic has high efficiency. The optic has a
total internal reflective surface (4) including an optical axis (A) and connected with surface parts (3a-3c) of overlapping
segments i.e. wedge like segments, of rotation symmetrical surfaces i.e. paraboloid surfaces. An entrance area includes
an entrance surface (7a) for allowing light to enter the optic. The light exits the optic through an exit area (9). A light
emitting element (8) is placed in front of the entrance surface such that the light emitting from the light emitting element
enters the optic through the entrance area. Beacon light optic i.e. massive optic, for use in an omni-directional emitting
beacon light for marking obstructions for a marine vessel and an aviation navigation unit (all claimed) i.e. aircraft
navigation unit.
• Claim 1- A beacon light optic, comprising:
- a reflective surface having an optical axis wherein the reflective surface is composed of surface parts of at least two at
least partly overlapping at least segments of rotation symmetrical surfaces;
- an entrance area comprising an entrance surface for allowing light to enter the beacon light optic;
- an exit area through which light exits the beacon light optic;
- a light emitting element disposed in front of the entrance surface such that light emitting from the light emitting element
enters the beacon light optic through the entrance area
• Background…
• Summary….
• DD…
• IPC-F21Vxxx,F21W011,F21Y010
• USPC-362,340,315,439,108,110,126,174,248,285
• MC…
26
Original Document obtained from Patent DB

27. INDUSTRIES
– Manufacture of optical instruments and photographic equipment
– Manufacture of electric lighting equipment
– Building completion and finishing
– Renting and leasing of other personal and household goods
– Growing of other perennial crops
– Manufacture of wiring devices
– Renting and leasing of motor vehicles
– Regulation of the activities of providing health care, education, cultural services and other social services,
excluding social security
PRODUCT CLUSTERS
– Precision Instruments, Measurement
– Furniture, Music, Sports, Toys
– Agriculture Forestry Fishing
– Transport Equipment - Parts
– Optics Watches Photo
– Office Machinery
– Electrical Machine Parts
– Construction Buildings Bridges Plants
APPLICATION
– Light, obstructions, marine navigation, aircraft navigation
27
Example (cont.), document enrichment and transformation
Enrichment, added: industries, product clusters, application
Extracted via concordance of
IPC with industry classifications
(ISIC4, SIC, NAICS)
Extracted via concordance of
USPC with international product
classification (CPC.2, HS, SITC,
ISIC)
Extracted from original text via
NLP (natural language
processing)
*Travis J. Lybbert Univ.Calif, Nikolas J. Zolas
US census bureau

28. Example (cont.), document enrichment and transformation
At the TOP of “value chain”
 Solutions:
 reduces power consumption , back-up battery capacity , obtains more compact, more cost
effective, easy to handle, easy to install, high efficiency
 Problems:
 power consumption , battery capacity , compact , cost , handle, install, efficiency
 Utilities:
 efficiency, cost, handle, maintenance
At the BOTTOM of “value chain”
 Solutions:
 has total internal reflection, including optical axis , connected with surface parts, includes an
entrance surface, allowing light to enter, exits the optic, placed in front entrance, enters the
optic through the entrance
 Problems:
 Total internal reflection, optical axis, surface parts, enter, exit
 Phenomena:
 Total internal reflection
Products in focus
 Beacon, Light, Luminaire
28
Extracted from original text via NLP
(natural language processing) and
Boolean text processing
Extracted from original text via
NLP (natural language
processing)
Enrichment, added: problems and solutions

29. Map(s), Ontology, Hierarchy and links creation
29
A NEED for an “ai-expert” advanced in machine learning methods
ontologies, patent/scientific corpora (tagged, chunked)

30. CoreSet and ExoSet
Links via interfaces to Exoset

31. Iterative screening through links – Still Human intelligence
Objects, properties, functions, problems, solutions.. till critical mass has enough to fulfil
a certain use, need, utility
A NEED for “ai-intelligence” of the complex recursive networks

32. Technology driven SPOTS to be verified
• …….
*Wide spectrum of spots, many are known,
many are crazy, still many are worth
• …….

33. Following Analyses
• Zooming into the domains, applications where the parts are originated
• Analyzing the constructed QFDs of those domains
• Draw gaps, needs, probabilities
• Trace back the outcome into an opportunity spot to estimate probability and value
• Trend towards particular opportunity becoming a cumulative impact in evolution
from spotted high relevance surroundings
Wrapping up the idea to the catchall view might lead to
THE TREND and THE OPPORTUNITY…

34. The global trend
Phenomena
Functions properties objects operations
Innovations
Products/Industries
Problems and Solutions
Applications

35. Conclusions
• Framework allows to discover opportunities both from Technology PUSH and
Marketing PULL perspectives or link them on-fly
• Multi-perspective view points
• Great assistance of AI in broadening and analyzing the ocean of relevant
information
• DWPI vs. Original does add significant value for bridging different info sources
• The NEEDS :
35
an “ai-expert” per domains in form of ontologies, patent/scientific corpora (tagged, chunked),
TRIZ-a-like libraries, Market/Industries/Products-Nomenclature/Utilities
an “ai-expert” advanced in machine learning methods ontologies, patent/scientific corpora
(tagged, chunked)
for “ai-intelligence” of the complex recursive networks/maps
Recursive, Multi-point view
(Mapping/Networking)
for Visual analytics