The document provides an overview of a university course on climate change policy, science, and international dimensions. It includes 3 sections: 1) an overview of climate change policy and international dimensions, 2) a presentation on the scientific evidence for climate change, and 3) renewable energy case studies. The course covers the basics of climate change causes and impacts, examines climate science as a paradigm shift involving complexity and uncertainty, and traces the political evolution of climate change policy through frameworks like the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol.

1. SD3003
Climate Change Policy, Science,
International Dimensions
Dr Gregory Borne

2. Responses to Climate Change
Case Study2
1. Overview of Climate change Policy, International
Dimensions
2. Scientific Evidence for Climate Change (Dr
William Austin; Dr Rob Wilson)
3. Renewable Energy (Dr Paul Connor) (Assessment
Noon Friday 28th October)
Fieldtrip Whitelee: 20th October

3. Introduction
1. The Basics - What is climate change, causes, impacts
2. Climate Science a paradigm shift, complexity and
uncertainty
3 Political Evolution

4. Tip of the (ever decreasing) Ice Berg

5. 1. CAUSE: THE BASICS
Greenhouse Effect

6. Greenhouse Effect
Emissions from human activities are increasing the
concentration of atmospheric GHGs
Enhanced greenhouse effect occurs due to atmospheric
buildup of GHGs that are released by human
activities
The main sources of GHG emissions are:
– Burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas)
– Mining activities
– Industrial activities
– Food production activities
– Burning and exploiting forests
– Land use change
– Waste management

7. Sources of emissions

8. IMPACTS
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0C 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C
Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Possible rising yields in some Falling yields in many
high latitude regions developed regions
Water Significant decreases in water
Small mountain glaciers Sea level rise threatens
availability in many areas, including
disappear – water
Mediterranean and Southern Africa major cities
supplies threatened in
several areas
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage to Rising number of species face extinction
Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt,
Major Irreversible
large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes

9. 2. Climate Science

10. What is Climate Change
Wicked Problem
• According to Lord Stern (Stern Report)
• Climate change is an externality with a difference:
– Global
– Long-term
– Uncertain
– Potentially large and irreversible
– “Climate change is the biggest market failure the world has ever seen”
– This is what makes the development of effective and coordinated policies
based on the same system a challenge
– Similarities between the discourses of climate change and sustainable
development

11. CLIMATE SCIENCE
“Climate change science necessitates the ability to
deal with uncertainty on several levels – not only
uncertainty about the workings of the complex
physical climate system, but also uncertainty
with respect to social and cultural processes that
mediate human response to changes within the
system”
- Rebich and Gautier (2005, p. 355 )

12. Uncertainty & Complexity in Climate
Change Science
• Climate change is a ‘big’ issue
• Understanding
• Predicting
• Acting
• The climate system is complex – ordered forcing +
chaos
• Understanding of individual components may be
fairly good but composite effect is uncertain
• Models can be constructed but have limitations
• Complexity  Uncertainty
(See Hulme 2009)

13. Climate- Gate
• Advocates and Sceptics
• Results from uncertainty and
complexity of climate science,
YES?
BUT ALSO
• Results from vested interests and
power dynamics in society- who
stands to win and who stands to
lose?
• Funding of climate science?
• 19th November 2009 UEA
Russell Report - http://www.cce-
review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.
pdf

14. Three way revolution in Science
towards Climate Change
Demands that are placed on scientific knowledge claims as they apply to
investigations such as climate change:
• To be warranted, knowledge must emerge from a respectful process in
which science's own internal social norms and practices are adhered to
• To be validated, knowledge must also be subject to the scrutiny of an
extended community of citizens who have legitimate stakes in the
significance of what is being claimed
• And to be empowered for use in public deliberation and policy-
making, knowledge must be fully exposed to the proliferating new
communication media by which such extended peer scrutiny takes
place. (Hulme and Ravetz)
(Source: BBC- Show Your Working What Climate Change Means
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1
/hi/sci/tech/8388485.stm?ad=1)

15. 3. Policy Evolution
• Evolution of Climate Change Policy
• United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
• COP/MOP
• Kyoto Protocol
• Bali Road Map
• Copenhagen

16. The COP/MOP negotiations
Brundtland Report United nations European Directive
Concept of sustainable framework convention for an emission trading
Development on climate change (UNFCCC) scheme (ETS)
Phase 1 EU-ETS Phase 2 EU-ETS
1987 1988 1992 1997 2003 2005 2007 2008 2012
Toronto conference Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol First commitment
Creation of IPCC Agreement entered into force of the Kyoto Protocol

17. Evolution of Climate Change Policy
• 1988: UN sets up a scientific authority to vet the evidence on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).
• 1990: First IPCC report says levels of man-made greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere and predicts these
will cause global warming.
• 1992: Rio Summit agrees to set up the UNFCCC, a vehicle for addressing climate change. The UNFCCC today has 194
parties.
• 1997: UNFCCC members sign the Kyoto Protocol. Under its first commitment period, industrialised countries must cut
emissions of six greenhouse gases so they are 5.2 percent lower than 1990 levels by the end of 2012.
• 2001: The Kyoto Protocol, still in framework form, is abandoned by the United States, then the world's biggest carbon
emitter. The pact is saved by the European Union (EU), which pilots an agreement on its rulebook and mechanisms,
opening the way to ratification.
• 2005: Kyoto Protocol takes effect on February 16.
• 2006: China overtakes the United States as the world's No. 1 carbon emitter.
• 2007: 4th Assessment Report by the IPCC says evidence for global warming is "unequivocal" and forecasts warming of
1.8-4.0 degrees C (3.2-7.2 degrees F) by 2100 and an unquantifiable rise in sea levels. Nobel Peace Prize is awarded
jointly to IPCC and former US vice president Al Gore UNFCCC parties agree a "Bali Road Map" for negotiating a post-
2012 climate treaty.
• 2009: Copenhagen summit, intended to seal a post-2012 deal, nearly ends in disaster. To save face, a small group of
leaders sets a broad goal of limiting warming to 2 C (3.6 F) and sketches financial provisions for poor countries. But it
identifies no staging posts for reaching the target, nor requires emissions curbs to be binding.
• 2010: Climate change retreats as a political priority after the trauma of Copenhagen, economic problems in rich
countries and attacks on the IPCC over flaws in the 4th Assessment Report.
• Nov 29-Dec 10: Annual conference of the UNFCCC in Cancun sets sights on incremental approach, with progress on
climate finance, technology transfer and deforestation.

18. United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
UNFCCC
• Created as a result of the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development (Earth Summit 1992)
• Aim -Stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system
• Not Legally Binding
• Calls for the creation of protocols
• Established the Kyoto Protocol
• Parties to the Conference (COP) have met annually since
1995

19. Conference of the Parties (COP)
Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP)
1995 – COP 1, The Berlin Mandate
1996 – COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland
1997 – COP 3, The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change
1998 – COP 4, Buenos Aires, Argentina
1999 – COP 5, Bonn, Germany
2000 – COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands
2001 – COP 6 Bonn, Germany
2001 – COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco
2002 – COP 8, New Delhi, India
2003 – COP 9, Milan, Italy
2004 – COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina
2005 – COP 11/MOP 1, Montreal, Canada
2006 – COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya
2007 – COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia
2008 – COP 14/MOP 4, Poznao, Poland
2009 – COP 15/MOP 5, Copenhagen, Denmark
2010 – COP 16/MOP 6, Cancún, Mexico
2011 – COP 17/MOP 7, Durban, South Africa
2012 – COP 18/MOP 8

20. Kyoto Protocol (COP3)
The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized
countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions .These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the
five-year period 2008-2012.
The Kyoto mechanisms
Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national
measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting
their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms.
• The Kyoto mechanisms are:
• Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"
• Clean development mechanism (CDM)
• Joint implementation (JI).

21. Participation in the Kyoto Protocol
December 2010
Green = Countries that have
signed and ratified the treaty
(Annex I & II countries in dark
green)
Grey = Countries that have not
yet decided[citation needed]
Brown = No intention to ratify
at this stage
Annex I = Industrialised
Countries and Countries in
Transition
Annex II = Developing
Countries

23. Bali Road Map (2007-COP 13)
At the 13th session of the United Nations Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) in Bali
in December 2007,developed and developing country governments from around
the world adopted the “Bali Road Map” consisting of several decisions that
reflected various tracks essential to reaching a secure climate future. The UNFCCC
negotiation process was assigned to a new subsidiary body – the AWG-LCA - which
focused on five building blocks:
• Shared vision
• Adaptation
• Mitigation
• Technology transfer
• Financing
• Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) was also
added to the negotiation agenda
A similar subsidiary body had been established in 2005 upon the Kyoto Protocol’s
entry into force - the AWG-KP - to negotiate binding post-2012

24. Copenhagen (COP15/MOP5)
OUTPUT – The Copenhagen Accord
• Global warming: The Accord agrees that global temperature rise should stay below 2C
(3.6F). A tangible achievement but less ambitious than some would have hoped.
• Reducing greenhouse gases: China and the United states Pledge to reduce carbon
emissions. BUT he treaty did not include any numerical targets for cutting pollution.
• Measuring emissions reductions: China refused to accept international monitoring but
agreed countries must measure their own emissions and report to the outside world.
• Finance to help developing nations adapt: Rich nations will provide 30bn dollars in
total by 2012 and 100bn per annum by 2020 to help poor countries adapt to climate
change but there is no detail on where this money will come from.
• Forests: The Accord will set up a new fund that pays poor nations not to chop down
trees, but there is no timetable and little money in place.
• Technology transfer: The world agreed to share information on new technology that
will help countries adapt to climate change and generate clean energy but again it is not
clear when this will happen.
• Carbon markets: Markets are mentioned as a "cost effective way" to cut emissions, but
companies will need much more concrete moves before they are confident to invest in
trading carbon.
Controversial – Debates of the overall outputs of the meeting draws into the focus
climate change policy based on the Kyoto Protocol

25. Cancun (COP16/MOP6)
The Cancún Agreements
• The package of decisions is seen by the UN as setting all governments more
firmly on the path towards a low-emissions future and supporting enhanced
action on climate change. Highlights of the agreements include:
• Objective: agreement to peak emissions and overall 2 degree target to limit
temperature rise;
• Emissions: bringing details of what developed and developing countries are
doing to tackle climate change, promised in Copenhagen, into the UN system so
they can be assessed;
• Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable (MRV): agreement on a system so we
know how countries are living up to their promises to take action on emissions;
• Long-term finance: establishment of Green Climate Fund to help developing
countries go low carbon and adapt to climate impacts;
• Deforestation: agreement on REDD+ framework to slow, halt and reverse
destruction of trees and agree the rules for delivering it and for monitoring
progress;
• Technology / Adaptation: set up the mechanisms to help developing countries
access low carbon technology, and adapt to climate change.

26. Durban (COP 17/MOP7)
28th November -9th December
•Global and local
connections
•Occurring whilst you are
taking this module
•Follow the debates
•Who are the main
stakeholders?
•What are the main
controversies?
•What are the outcomes?

27. Questioning Established Norms
Climate policy
1. Essentially a problem of sharing costs
– Actually about decisions on policy, investment, risks and returns
driven more by politics than by economics
2. Led by the industrialised world with others following
– Actually fractured action with emerging economies accelerating
3. Energy efficiency is an easy ‘free lunch’
– Good for the economy but not simple
4. Carbon pricing to drive low carbon investment
– Actually has a much more complex role
5. Technology will save us!
– Innovation is a result of good policy, hard to force efficiently
and slow to emerge

28. Global and Local Connections
A human Issue
Environmental/Social Justice
Local Engagement
Equality
Power
Module will Explore
National and Local Responses
Renewable Energy –Whitelee
Wind farm
Local Communities- Buckhaven
(Climate change protest outside the United States embassy in
Jakarta in December 2009)

29. Questions to Think About
• Why is climate change such a complex
phenomena?
• What is difference between climate science and
traditional science?
• Why is climate change so controversial?
• Climate change policy fundamentally exposes the
complex nature of knowledge in society. HOW?
• What are the connections between global policy
and local issues?

30. Conclusion
• Climate Policy is Complex and Fractured
• Many competing interests
• Trade offs between, environmental, social and
economic imperatives
• Exposes the flaws in the production of
knowledge and its multiple and contested
uses in society
• Embodies the complexities of sustainable
development

31. Readings/Resources
Borne, G., (2010) A Framework for Sustainable Global Development and Effective Governance of risk, New York, Edward Mellen
Press
Hulme, M. (2009) Why we disagree about climate change , Understanding, Controversy, Inaction and opportunity, Cambridge,
Cambridge University Press
Stern, N. (2006). "Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition). Executive Summary". HM Treasury,
London. http://www.webcitation.org/5nCeyEYJr Accessed 10/10/08
Foresight, International Dimensions of Climate Change (2011) Final Project Report., The Government Office for Science, London.
www.bis.gov.uk/.../foresight/.../international-dimensions/11-1042-international-dimensions-of-climate-change accessed
10/06/11
Rebich, S., Gautier, C. 2005. Concept mapping to reveal prior knowledge and conceptual change in a mock summit course on
global climate change. Journal of Geoscience Education. 53(4). 355-365 (on moodle)
Climate Change Policy Time Line http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/carbonwatch/2010/05/timeline-the-road-to-climate-
change-policy.html
International Law and Climate change Policy -http://untreaty.un.org/cod/avl/ha/ccc/ccc.html
BBC- Show Your Working What Climate Change Means
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8388485.stm?ad=1)
Copenhagen Accord - http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/items/5262.php
Kyoto Protocol - http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
Climate Change a Summary of Science
http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2010/4294972962.pdf
Russell Report - The Independent Emails Review Climate Change Email http://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf
accessed 04/02/11