On 2 and 3 October 2013, the GTP hosted a series of seminars and scenario planning workshops to capture ideas. In attendance at the "Imagine the Future" Seminar was a cross-sector mix of people including councillors, City and Provincial government officials, planners and urban designers, researchers, NGOS, built environment professionals, and members of the media.
This presentation by the Programme Management Executive of the GTP sets out the context of global development forces shaping the way cities function. Development drivers, the initial spatial argument and other core aspects are identified for the Voortrekker Road corridor for 2020, 2030 and 2040, seen here as the second metropolitan core of Cape Town.
7. 1771 Industrial Revolution
1829 Start of Age of Steam and Railways
1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy
Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass
Production
1971 Age of Information & Telecommunications
2013 Midpoint of Age of Information &
Telecommunications
2020 Era of Turbulence
2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable
Energy?
MID
CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotechnology and
Renewable Energy?
8.
9. THE ROAD TO MID
CENTURY
Four Hard Riders
Five Easy Riders
Two Zebras
Seven Human Generations
11. • CO2 : Climate change
• Ocean acidification
• Global nitrogen cycle (N) cycle
• Global freshwater use
• Land system change & soil loss
• Biological diversity loss
• Chemical pollution
1. ON THE PLANET BOUNDARY
12.
13. IPCC Report 27 Sep 2013
Carbon dioxide is at an "unprecedented" level not seen
for at least the last 800,000 years.
Sea level is set to continue to rise at a faster rate than
over the past 40 years.
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been melting,
glaciers and Arctic sea ice have continued to shrink.
changes seen in climate since the 1950s are
"unprecedented over decades to millennia."
14. 2. A WORLD RUN BY POWERFUL,
AGEING 20TH CENTURY NATION
STATES
18. 1. LIFE HAS BEEN GETTING
BETTER!
FOR MORE PEOPLE FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO
Population Growth Rates
Declining
Better Quality of Life
Famine has become rare
People are Living 25% longer
than 40 years ago
Greater choice & opportunity
than ever before
Huge reductions in Poverty
Better health: lifestyle
diseases now key issue
Higher Standards of Living
GDP per person has doubled
since 1970
Cost of Communication has
been slashed
Price of metals & commodities
reducing
More holidays, media choice,
information
19.
20. • The Green Wave
• algal aircraft fuel
• super efficient solar
• composting toilets
• Internet Everywhere
• Network-linked chips in everything : 1 trillion by 2025
• Talking video smartphones for all
• Augmented Reality
• Personal Computing Device
• Biotechnology:
• Biology + Nanoscience + Information Science
• Redesign of the human being: Genetic Engineering & Transhumanism
• Redesign of materials
2. TECHNOLOGY AND
INNOVATION: A MATTER OF TIME
& MARKET
21. 3. Other Global trends
Dematerialisation
3D Printing
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Bio feedstock & fuels
Membrane Technology
Mass Customisation
Localisation of Production
22. 4. Fast Rail Linked to
Air Transport = Aerotropolis
23. ELECTRIC NETWORKED-VEHICLE
(EN-V)
Drives automatically and comes
when you call it via iPhone
GPS, distance-sensing technology
and vehicle-to-vehicle
communication systems would
ease congestion and reduce the
risk of accidents.
At one-sixth the size of a regular
car, the pods are made of
lightweight materials like carbon
fiber and weigh just 1,000 pounds.
You can fit five of them into one
parking spot.
24. SMART TRANSPORT
Smart car pooling
companies.
Door-to- door taxi service
Congestion Pricing
Dynamic ride sharing
Real-time transportation
and driving services will
be able to adjust
automatically according
to weather, schedule
infractions and congestion
25. FULLY AUTOMATED VEHICLES
Users can “punch in” or “speak” the place they want to
go to and the vehicle will automatically take them
there.
will set the stage for fully automated navigation
systems for FLYING VEHICLES
26. More transport options
towards 2030
electric automobiles and hybrids dominate
Self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the
dark“Glow Roads”
27. And by 2050…
Bcause of friction-free technologies and advances in
material science, the average passenger vehicle will
weigh less than 90 kg
because of automation, far fewer pieces, and greatly
reduced complexity the average manufacturing time for
a vehicle will be less than one hour
the cost of the average vehicle will be under R 50 000
because of the use of automated navigation systems,
traffic courts will be a distant memory.
33. A SMALL AFRICAN COUNTRY
• Population Stable & Ageing
• Gets dwarfed in the African context to MID CENTURY
Country Population (millions)*
2012 2030 MID
CENTURY
GAIN
2012 -MID
CENTURY
SOUTH
AFRICA
50 54 56
+6
TANZANIA 47 81 138
+91
NIGERIA 166 257 389
+223
* UN Projections 2012
34. PROSPEROUS
• Huge Potential of Africa
• SA High Economic Competitiveness
• Most sophisticated economy in Africa
• Relatively declining importance of mineral
wealth
43. YEAR GLOBAL TRANSITION YEAR SOUTH AFRICA TRANSITION
1771 Industrial Revolution
1829 Start of Age of Steam & Rail
1875 Start of Age of Steel,
Electricity & Heavy
Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil,
Automobiles & Mass
Production
1905 Mining Economy + Union of
South Africa
1930 Resource Based Manufacturing
1960 Republic of South Africa
1971 Age of Information &
Telecommunications
1971 Resource Based Services
Economy
2013 Midpoint of Age of
Information & Telecomms
1994 Democratic Elections
2020 Era of Turbulence 2020 A Perfect Storm ?
2030 Start of Age of
Biotechnology and
Renewable Energy?
2030 An African Knowledge &
Finance Capital ?
MID
CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotech 2050 A Wealthy African Region ?
45. Corridor
Transition
Period World Transition Transport Driver Urban Response
1.
Birth
1680 –
1840
Regional Wagon
Route
Outspan at
Hardekraaltjie
2.
Urbanisation
1860 -
1940
Age of Steel, Electricity
& Heavy Engineering
Hard Road &
Railway Line
Country Villages & High
Streets
3. City
Integration
1940 –
1980
Age of Oil, Automobiles
& Mass Production
Commuter Rail /
Bus Corridor
Industrialisation
Satellite Towns &
Corridor Emergence
4. Metro
Sprawl
1980 –
2020
Age of Information &
Telecommunications
N1 Regional Motor
Corridor, Mini Bus
Taxi
Corridor Decline
5. Metro
Compaction
2020 –
2030
Era of Turbulence Bus Rapid Transit,
New Trains, Smart
Transport Systems
Corridor Regeneration
6.
Africanisation
2030 -
2040
Start of Age of
Biotechnology and
Renewable Energy?
Fast Rail, Smart
Vehicles
Off Grid Satellite Towns
7. Regionalism 2040
+
Midpoint of Age of
Biotech and Renewable
Energy?
Walking & Cycling Urban Villages
47. BELLVILLE AT CORE
OF 21ST CENTURY
REGIONAL
COMPLEX
Bio Silicon Valley of Africa
Regional Tourism & Services
Fast Rail connecting
Airport, Western
Cape, Eastern Cape and
Gauteng
Aerotropolis link to airport
48. BI – NODAL STRUCTURE OF
CAPE TOWN’S URBAN CORE
Second Node
Balancing
Historic City Centre
49. CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE
SUSTAINABILITY PERSPECTIVE
Worst Case Scenario:
Doubling of Greenhouse
Gas Emissions to 2040
will place massive
carbon tax burden on
growth
Urban Core is energy
efficient, carbon
efficient, adaptable,
inclusive & sustainable
alternative
50. INTEGRATING THE CAPE
FLATS
Corridor anchors North
South grid integration of
Cape Flats
Second Node is connecting
Hub for Symphony Way
Corridor that links
Khayelitsha to the Urban
Core
CAPE TOWN SECOND CITY
STRUCTURE PERSPECTIVE
68. URBAN ORGANISER
CID Operations
Integrated Transport Operations
Security Agency Capacity Building
CCTV
Safe Transport & Parking
Constructive Parks & Public Spaces
Problem Buildings
69. Clean & Safe CIDs
Great Events
Ubuntu Market
FROM AMBITION TO ACTION:
TURNING POTENTIAL INTO PROSPERITY
71. Urban Acupunture
Strategic Locations
Key Intersections
Well Located Public land
Stations & Transport Interchanges
Catalytic Effect on Systems & Perceptions
Do-able within 18 months – 2 years