This document discusses the growth of the lithium-ion battery market and its implications for the demand of graphite. It notes that graphite is the primary material used in lithium-ion battery anodes. Various studies are cited that project significant increases in the demand for graphite to meet the growing lithium-ion battery sector, especially for electric vehicles. Alternative anode materials like silicon are discussed but noted to currently be more expensive and less developed compared to natural graphite.

1. Jonathan Lee, Byron Capital Markets
The Growth of the Lithium-ion Battery Market
December 2011

2. Graphite Demand Distribution
Refractories
21% Expanded Graphite &
30% Carbon Products
Crucibles and Lubricants
14% Gaskets and Packing
Pencils
14%
14% Other Iron and Steel
7%
Source: Roskill (2009)
December 2011

3. Two-Dimensional Growth
 Nickel-metal hydride battery was the pre-cursor
 Uses a metal hydride as anode (typically rare earth – lanthanum)
 Or Cadmium in nickel-cadmium batteries
 Graphite used as the anode in the lithium-ion market
 Growth in graphite with switch to lithium-ion market from NiMH
 We previously looked at the growth of batteries and electric vehicles
 Growth area for graphite - synthetic and natural
December 2011

4. More than Lithium
 According to Argonne National Laboratory Study (2009)
 Estimated Graphite:Lithium (kg/kg) ratio
 NCA (lithium nickel/cobalt/aluminum): 8
 LFP (lithium iron phosphate): 13
 LMO (lithium manganese oxide): 15
 In LTO (lithium-titanate); anode:lithium (kg/kg) ratio: 8
 No graphite used in this type of Li-ion battery
December 2011

5. Future Graphite Demand
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000 Surplus/Deficit
1,000,000
Total Graphite Demand
500,000
Total New Graphite
- Demand
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
(500,000)
(1,000,000)
December 2011

6. Possible Substitutions for graphite
 Synthetic Graphite
 Li4Ti5O12 – Lithium titanate
 Tin based anodes: Cu6Sn5 (Copper-Tin), FeSn5 (Iron-Tin), Carbon-Tin
 Al-based anodes
 Silicon based anodes
December 2011

7. Anode Types and Capacity
Metal Li Si Al Sn Al Graphite
Lithiated Compound Li Li22Si5 Al4Li9 Li22Sn5 AlLi LiC6
Theoretical Capacity (mAh/g) >3,800 >3,000 2,234 994 993 372
Dendritic
Volume Change (%) 323 - 300 97 9
Growth
Source: Kamali and Fray
December 2011

8. Anode Costs
 Just for the raw material costs:
 Lithium Titanate - $23k/tonne
 Copper-Tin: $16k/tonne
 Iron-Tin: $19k/tonne
 Co3O4-Al: $23k/tonne
 Does not include costs for producing anode
 Titanium and Tin expensive metals – Key drivers in costs
 Natural graphite anodes – we estimate $10k/tonne cost
December 2011

9. Synthetic Graphite
 Low capacity – theoretical capacity of 372 mAh/g
 Good power
 Less energy density
 Better control of properties during manufacturing
 Expensive – Petroleum coke graphitised at 2,800 C
December 2011

10. Lithium Titanate
 Long cycle life
 High rate capability
 Capacity of only 175 mAh/g
 Lower voltage and energy density (See right)
 Faster charging time – 10 minutes compared
to 8 hours
 Recharge rates of 98%
Source: Jim McDowall
December 2011

11. Tin Based Anodes
 High capacity (990mAh/g)
 Constructed under heat and argon atmosphere for 12 hours – Makes even more expensive
 Limited cycle life - Deconstruction of CuSn after lithiation. Volumetric changes as well
 Found that volume change could be reduced by using nano-sized tin particles (Kamali and
Fray, 2010)
 Graphite-tin were more complicated to produce using carbon nanotubes or tin-filled carbon
nanofibres
 May have difficulties in commercial applications
 Would still use graphite in production anyhow
December 2011

12. Aluminum based anodes
 Co3O4-Al
 High theoretical capacity (over 900mAh/g)
 However, low capacity retention due to
volume change
 Work performed at University of
Electronic Science and Technology of
China (2011)
 Changed particle sizes to increase
capacity retention
 Range of only 60-70%
 Retention after first charge – Very Low Source: Lei, Ma, Sun
December 2011

13. Silicon Based anodes
 Much higher capacity (3,000 mAh/g vs. 350 mAh/g)
 Silicon is a crystalline structure – inflexible
 Expansion occurs when absorbing lithium – causes stress on crystalline structure
 PNNL recently had success with Si-based electrodes
 Porous Si was used to allow expansion, still a crystalline structure
 Carbon coated and KB carbon added
 Over 3,000 mAh/g in initial capacity
 1,600 mAh/g after 30 cycles – Most losses during
December 2011

14. Conclusion
 Natural Graphite demand will continue to grow two fold:
 Conversion to lithium-ion batteries from NiMH
 Growth sector of lithium-ion batteries in vehicles
 Alternative anode materials far more expensive and less developed
 Especially for automotive, very long lead time to get materials and parts approved before
into mass production
 Titanium, cobalt, and tin make other anodes expensive
 Volumetric changes in batteries make other anodes unworkable, to date
 Early stage in Silicon based anodes
 Synthetic graphite has a tremendous energy input with graphite having a high melting
point
 Growth of EV’s will coincide with rising energy prices
December 2011