1. Regular research papers and articles providing sector
specific insights and issues analysis – Retail sector.
August edition 2012 – Retail
Industry
Intelligence Unit
Grant Thornton’s Industry Intelligence Unit (IIU) Our latest edition of the
blends the latest information and analysis of specific Retail IIU provides the
industries from publicly available sources (including the following articles:
Australian Bureau of Statistics and the national press) with Retail industry snapshot from
pragmatic, commercial and practical initiatives to improve the Australian Bureau of
Statistics
stakeholder value. with comments from with Simon
Trivett (Partner, Audit & Assurance)
and Gayle Dickerson (Partner,
Welcome to our latest edition of the Despite this, there continue to be Recovery & Reorganisation).
Retail IIU. high-profile rationalisations and business
The Australian Omni-channel
The end of the financial year provided failures occurring including Retravision
Shopper
continued refreshing news for retailers, Southern, Pets Paradise and our recent from Gareth Jude - Retail Industry
following on from the previous six appointment as Administrators of the Executive at Telstra examines why
the vast potential of the Omni-
months results. The Australian Bureau WA based Wooldridges/Education
Channel world is untapped by
of Statistics released the June 2012 retail Works. These have been attributed to the Australian retailers.
numbers in early August 2012. The flat retail market in general. Whether
theme is still for cautious consumer the retail market is entirely responsible Fraud, the unknown, unknown
from Chris Watson (Associate
confidence, with some sectors up and for business failures is questionable as Director, Forensic Consulting) looks
others remaining relatively flat. The continuing Federal political instability at how to manage the risk of fraud
seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.5% filters down into the retail sector. and preventing a Clive Peeters
scenario in your back yard.
in June 2012, consistent with April and Most of Australia’s top 25 retailers
May rises. The trend estimate also rose reported flat sales in 2012 with profit
in June 2012 by 1.0% - this is the highest margins continuing to be eroded by high
level of growth, although it remains rents and wage pressure. However, we
underwhelming, that we have seen for see that the market may be more open for
two and a half years. acquisitions. The recent Country Road

2. acquisition of Witchery/Mimco could be to succeed, even in a relatively flat retail for responsibly delivering a return to
the start of increased activity (albeit at a market. the owners of the business. But it is not
discount), which we expect to see more When we talk to successful retailers, hard to see that if the service delivery is
of in the next 12 to 24 months. we are finding that a common view taken not present, then consumers will default
In the last month at Grant Thornton by them is that whilst on-line shopping to what they perceive as a better value
we hosted seminars where we heard from usually meets consumers’ desire for proposition provided on-line.
the authors of the Ipsos Mackay Report, value (even if this is only a perception) it We still see that some retailers are yet
Dr Rebecca Huntley and Dorothy still fails to deliver the same service and to fully appreciate that you need to drive
Dudley. The Ipsos Mackay Report is inspiration that a well run physical store both bricks and mortar and online to a
Australia’s premier syndicated qualitative can provide. It is often the customer happy marriage that can leverage and
research program, and has been running service and experience that brings compliment each other to achieve higher
for 34 years. These presentations focused consumers back into the store time and sales than treating each distribution
on consumer sentiment and shopping again. Even if they are simply coming in- channel as a separate business.
trends in 2012. The specific findings store for a price check, great service often Our regular contributor, Gareth
around consumer sentiment and how results in a sale that would otherwise Jude, Retail Executive at Telstra, who
retailers, particularly bricks and motor have been made on-line. headlined the recent Retail World
retailers, could address consumer Many consumers have observed that conference in Sydney and Melbourne,
concerns were insightful. Many some of the large retailers in Australia provides his insights and research on
consumers no longer find the shopping seemed to have lost their way recently the Australian Omni-Channel retailer
experience “fun”. The Ipsos Mackay with their delivery of service, something and how Australian retailers can utilize
Report has further highlighted that they used to be known for. Given technology to improve customer
retailers that focused on the fundamentals salaries are a major cost to all bricks and interaction.
of customer service and creating the right motor retailers, this expense line receives
customer experience were well placed attention almost immediately in the drive
Industry Intelligence Unit 2

3. IIU Retail August 2012
Retail industry snapshot
The retail industry’s mid-year results the next 12 months in the sector. In • The Household Assistance Package
have exceeded industry analysts’ addition, the environment surrounding started in May 2012 providing initial
forecasts, after a rise of 0.8% in May these encouraging results continues to be payments and promising tax cuts for
2012, leading into a seasonally adjusted uncertain. Retailers are not immune to July 2012 and increased assistance
increase in June 2012 of 1.0%. The the introduction of the new carbon tax, from March 2013
increases in May and June come on the and we discuss later in this paper what • A strong Australian dollar, touching
back of consecutive increases in retail we believe will be the impact of these a four month high at the beginning of
turnover from month to month of 0.5% changes. August
in each of March and April. The result These are the key macro-economic • European economic situation remains
for June 2012 is the highest increase in issues impacting retailers: a concern
retail sales we have seen in two and a half • Introduction of the carbon tax, which • More than 650 retail store closures
years. is creating uncertainty regarding the planned since the beginning of the
However, few analysts are forecasting extent of the impact on individuals’ year, including major store closure
anything other than flat growth over and families’ expenses programs by: Speciality Fashion
Group, Billabong, Sleep City,
Fletcher Jones, WOW Sight and
Sound and Darell Lea
• RBA’s decision to cut the cash rate by
0.25% in June and by 0.5% in May
The detail
The flat sales in the December 2011 retail
turnover quarter have been followed by
two increases in March 2012 and June
2012 quarters.
The calendar year started well with
the 0.3% seasonally adjusted retail
turnover rise for the month of January
2012 and the 1.0% growth of March
2012. April 2012 experienced a slight
fall of 0.2%, predominantly driven by
the bad results in the household goods,
department stores, other retailing and
food retailing industry sub-groups.
Nevertheless, this small decline was not
enough to jeopardise the trend and May
2012 and June 2012 had respectively
seasonally adjusted results of 0.8% and
1.0%.
Industry Intelligence Unit 3

4. Retail turnover in Australia
Growth 1.1%
Growth 0.8% Growth 0.7%
Growth 0.8%
Growth 0.3%
Growth 0.2%
Growth 0.1%
Growth (-0.1)%
In volume terms the June quarter’s For the June 2012 quarter, the sub- CBD locations. However, regional strip
result of 1.4% is consistent with the sector results were: malls will likely see higher vacancy rates.
March quarter’s result of 1.4%. The • Food retailing: Up 1.3% Competition for premium retail sites
last quarter’s retail sales may have been • Clothing, footwear and personal will be driven by overseas brands such as
buffered by the Government’s decision accessory retailing: Up 2.0% River Island, Topshop, Zara and H&M
to launch the stimulating Household • Department stores: Up 2.5% who plan to continue their spread across
Assistance Package. The RBA’s rate • Other retailing: Up 1.3% Australia.
cutting over the strong Australian dollar • Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food Indeed, Woolworth and Coles
in June also deserves to be highlighted services: Up 3.1% operations represent 75% of grocery,
along with lower petrol prices. liquor and food market in Australia.
Every industry sub-group, except Despite the encouraging June quarter Big retailers keep on being bigger at the
one, follows this general growth trend growth in turnover, particularly for expense of smaller businesses according
since the March 2012 quarter. The poor department stores who have really had a to a report on the Australian retail sector
performer in the sector relates to the tough time of it over the last year, many issued by Morgan Stanley1. Smaller
“Household goods retailing” sub-group retail businesses remain in a distressed retailers cannot compete on lower prices
which, on a seasonally adjusted basis, saw situation and we expect to see more and therefore need to differentiate
its turnover falling by 2.0% compared to store closures. This will represent an themselves on value and quality.
the March 2012 quarter. opportunity for sales in high-demand
1. The Sydney Morning Herald, “Big retail fattens up on the small guys”. August 7, 2012.
Industry Intelligence Unit 4

5. IIU Retail August 2012
The Australian Omni-channel
shopper
A year ago you had probably never heard holiday is the same customer who visits
A white paper entitled,
of the word Omni-channel, but since then, a store to buy a holiday. Online and
“How you can join the
it has hardly been out of the news when physical stores are not separate channels
Omni-channel Shopper in
retailers talk about strategy. A number in the traditional sense because the one
transforming Australian
of high profile, publicly-listed Australian person may use both channels. In fact,
retail” includes a full
retailers have cited Omni-channel as online and physical more rightly should
discussion of the research
their key strategic initiative for 2012 and be considered an Omni-channel.
we conducted and some
cite it as the way they hope to change At Telstra, we have been interested in
original customer case
the fortunes of their business. So what the blended online/in-store Omni-channel
studies. This whitepaper
is Omni-channel and why are so many shopping experience for some time, but
is available on Telstra.com
retailers seeing it as so vitally important? all the examples of Omni-channel success,
Telstra Business -
Omni-channel is often thought of as like John Lewis and Best Buy and most
Whitepapers or contact
simply the combination of online and of the research on the subject, seemed
Gareth Jude at gareth.
physical retailing, but it is really a new to be from overseas. We were interested
jude@team.telstra.com
way to think about distribution channel in finding out if the conditions exist for
design. In traditional distribution channel Omni-channel retailing in Australia. We
design, a market is segmented into also wanted to find out if the Omni-
groups of customers that are maximally channel consumer exists in our market,
similar by group and maximally different and if so, how they like to shop. The
between groups. Channels of distribution research we commissioned consisted
and communication are then designed of a telephone survey of 813 randomly
to suit the needs of these groups of selected respondents across Australia.
customers. For example, your bank Quotas and weighting were applied so
probably has separate channels for large that the results are reflective of the actual
corporate, small business and consumer Australian population.
customers. Likewise, at Telstra, we In parallel with our field research, we
operate Enterprise and Government, also studied existing research to find out
Business and Consumer channels. if the Australian consumer is equipped
Underlying this model is the belief that with the technology to have a blended
each customer buys only from one online and in-store shopping experience.
channel, and thus the profitability of each The answer to that question was a
channel should be judged separately. resounding yes. We found that:
The Omni-channel hypothesis is • Australia has the fifth highest level of
that traditional channel design is not internet penetration in the world2
effective for retailers. The customer • Australians now spend an average of
who’s browsing the online channel almost 22 hours per week online3 (in
for clothes is the same customer who terms of media consumption, this is
visits the store looking for clothes. The 40% more time than they spend in 2. Internet World Stats: www.internetworldstats.com
customer who’s looking online for a front of a TV) 3. Nielsen 2012 Australian Online Consumer Report
Industry Intelligence Unit 5

6. • 51% of all online Australians aged feel and try a product but then buys when in store for free, while digital media
16+ owned a smartphone in 2011, up online. Our research shows that the can be used to display a message or
from 36% in 2010. This compares to showrooming phenomenon is real. provide information via a kiosk.
penetration rates of 45% in the UK Half of the population has researched
and 38% in the USA4 a product in a physical store then 3. Embrace the smartphone
• 18% of Australian households now bought it online, but of these, about The Smartphone is the new shopping
own a tablet computer, up from 8% in a quarter made the online purchase companion of choice and they are already
2010 and forecast to be 39% by 2013 from the same retailer with whom owned by the majority of the Australian
• Australians use social media more they did the research. In other words, population. Retailers should make sure
than any other developed country5 showrooming results in an online sale that all their online applications are
for the physical retailer in about 25% optimised for mobile, but according to
Our conclusion is that Australians are of cases Google6 only 21% of Australian web
better equipped to be Omni-channel • Consumers value Omni-channel sites qualify.
shoppers than most of our overseas shopping for the way it combines
contemporaries. the different strengths of in store 4. Facilitate anywhere anytime
The field research gave some and online to create an anytime, communications
fascinating insights into Omni-channel anywhere shopping experience. For In the Omni-channel world, customers
shopping in Australia. example, they see benefit in being are wandering around your shop 24/7 and
• Two thirds of Australians have bought able to order in store or online and will be sending messages at any time and
online in the last twelve months with then take delivery somewhere else, to in any form. Retailers need to implement
an average spend of over $2,200 check stock availability across various a unified communications platform so
• The most popular categories for online locations, or to check out extended that customers’ messages can be received
purchasing are clothing/accessories ranges online while visiting a store and responded to in a timely manner.
and books, while the least popular are
cosmetics and sporting goods The research shows that the Omni-channel 5. Embrace social media
• The online shopper is shopper is equipped and already active in A study by Cisco in the USA showed
overwhelmingly an Omni-channel the Australian market. What do retailers that social media is now five times more
shopper. Most online buyers have need to do to serve this new high value influential than in store assistants in
also bought goods from the same customer? There are five key lessons. determining shopping choice7. Combine
category in a physical store. The most that with the knowledge that Australians
popular Omni-channel category is 1. Get the technology platform right are the biggest consumers of social media
clothing/accessories, with 89% of In the bricks and mortar world, the in the world and retailers have another
online buyers also shopping in store. foundations of customer experience are item for their to do list.
The least popular Omni-channel physical. Bricks and mortar retailers
category is airline tickets, but even are understandably obsessive about Our research shows that the high profile
here 31% of online buyers also buy their facilities, their stock and their retailers who have identified Omni-
in bricks and mortar stores signage. In the Omni-channel world, the channel as an area of opportunity have
• The benefits of shopping in store or foundation of customer experience is been right to do so. Bricks and mortar
online are very different in consumer’s technological. Retailers now need to be retailers are in the best position to exploit
minds. Consumers gave their top equally obsessive about their technology the potential of Omni-channel, as the
reasons for preferring to shop online infrastructure, because without it, the full experience can’t be delivered without
as price and the convenience of being online extension of their store will not a network of physical facilities. Most
able to shop from anywhere. The top always open for business. Australian shoppers are already Omni-
reasons given for preferring to shop channel shoppers but they want more.
in a physical store were sensory (feel, 2. Keep the doors open between the To exploit the opportunity, retailers
touch, the ability to try on clothes, physical and online worlds will need to become as obsessive about
etc.) as well as face-to-face customer The essence of Omni-channel is the free their technology platforms as they have
service movement of the customer between the been traditionally about their physical
• The online world has given birth physical and virtual worlds of retail. facilities. The vast potential of the Omni-
to “showrooming”. Showrooming WiFi hotspots and digital media, when channel world is untapped. It will be
occurs when a consumer uses a used in store, can facilitate this. WiFi interesting to see who has the skill to
bricks and mortar store to touch, hotspots enable customers to go online grasp the opportunity.
4. Google Mobile Internet and Smartphone Adoption Report January 2012.
5. Nielsen’s Social Media Report: Q3 2011.
6. Google “Our mobile planet: Austrlia – understanding the mobile consumer” May 2012.
7. Cisco ISBG “Catch’em and keep’em 2011”.
Industry Intelligence Unit 6

7. IIU Retail August 2012
Fraud – the unknown, unknown
I would like to start off with a quote the difficult ones. And so people who those who “say with high certainty that
from the former US Department of have the omniscience that they can say something has not happened or is not
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfield with high certainty that something has being tried”.
in 2002 which was made in response to not happened or is not being tried have What’s the first thing that pops
questioning about Iraq and weapons of capabilities that are [beyond mine].” into your mind when you think about
mass destruction. I will give you a moment or two fraud? I will almost guarantee it is
“Reports that say that something to get your head around that set of one of the following; “I don’t have a
hasn’t happened are always interesting to statements. Although at the time problem”, “it can’t happen here” or
me, because as we know, there are known Rumsfeld was much maligned and “I trust everyone”. Be honest, you did
knowns; there are things we know we mocked for this apparently nonsensical didn’t you? The amazing thing about
know. We also know there are known set of hypothesis, when you take each fraud is that everyone acknowledges
unknowns; that is to say we know there sentence apart they actually make perfect it exists and that it is a problem but,
are some things we do not know. But sense. Fraud and fraud prevention, bizarrely, not a problem for them.
there are also unknown unknowns—the much like any security question – as Similarly, the accepted wisdom is that
ones we don’t know we don’t know. was Rumsfeld’s point – can equally be it only happens to the big guys or is for
And if one looks throughout the history categorised as known knowns, known such insanely huge sums of money it
of our country and other free countries, unknowns and unknown unknowns. could never happen to them without
it is the latter category that tend to be Sadly it is also true in that there are discovering it quickly. These, I am sure,
are thoughts that ring hollow with the
former executives of the now defunct
retailer Clive Peeters where $20 million
evaporated without their having so much
as an inkling that it had done so.
Ms Sonya Causer joined Clive
Peeters as a senior financial accountant
and in April 2007 was given additional
responsibilities which included
authorisation of salaries, super payments,
group tax and payroll tax. Over the
course of the next two years Ms Causer
then made 125 individual fraudulent
payments to herself totalling nearly $20
million. It is fair to say that her modus
operandi was basic. She merely altered
payee details in order to divert the funds
to her bank accounts. A trivial matter
given that she had sole responsibility
for this very system. An internal audit
identified a $2 million discrepancy
Industry Intelligence Unit 7

8. which led to a full investigation and the
subsequent revelation that nearly $20
million had actually been stolen.
As we are all aware this fraud had
calamitous results, with Ms Causer
cited as being a significant contributory
factor in the stores’ demise. But not all
frauds need to be on this scale to have a
serious or fatal impact on your business.
Consider another less well known but
nonetheless true, retail story of woe: A
medium sized retail organisation with
its own warehousing and distribution
operations discovered quite by chance
that certain numbers “didn’t quite add
up”. Upon investigation it turned out
that a number of warehouse staff didn’t
actually exist. What is more worrying is
that when presented with this evidence
the warehouse manager said, “you know
I thought it was strange I would see these
names but couldn’t put a face to them!”.
In another example, this time at
the customer end, a restaurant was
experiencing stagnant revenue despite
maintaining the same level of clientele
much to the confusion of the owner.
Our investigation revealed a number
of schemes where cash was being
skimmed from the system. One of which
was to simply “reverse out” or cancel
transactions as if to refund a disgruntled
customer but pocket the cash instead.
To compound matters the same member
of staff was also responsible for cashing
up at the end of the day and was able to
remove more cash without any further
checks by the owner. These are just
two of the many schemes we identified
which were not only incredibly simple
to perpetrate but had gone unnoticed for
some considerable time.
The key challenge for the business
owner is not only to be open to the
possibility that fraud could occur in
your business but to also recognise and
identify the warning signals or red flags
that would allow an early and hopefully
less costly (in every sense of the word)
resolution to the problem.
When thinking about this challenge
I am reminded of an observation by the
irreverent surrealist cartoonist Gary
Larson in his Far Side series where he
succinctly sums up this issue which I
shall attempt to describe. Imagine if you
Industry Intelligence Unit 8

9. will the scene, a doughnut store and in
the store there is an empty cabinet where
doughnuts once resided and a very large
young man is sweeping the floor whilst
Red flags
the manager scratches his head and
Individual
exclaims he cannot understand why he
1. Change in lifestyle
isn’t making any money as he is shifting
2. Purchasing patterns
lots of doughnuts. The clear implication
3. Gambling habits
from the drawing itself is that of course
4. Never takes a holiday/refuses help
the large young man is eating all of them
5. Unusual working patterns
and they aren’t selling many if any at all.
What may you ask has that to
Systemic
do with red flags? Well, the shop
1. Destruction or loss of documentation
owner failed to follow the literal and
2. Overriding controls
metaphorical trail of doughnut crumbs
3. Lack of ethical culture
to the real source of his dilemma and to
4. Lack of effective (cash) procedures
recognise let alone identify the red flag
5. Consistent failure in timely detection of fraudulent activity
literally in front of his face.
“This is a cartoon” I hear you further
proclaim and would never happen in
real life let alone in my organisation. For
obvious reasons I will not name names Where the individual flags represent number on the total amount of fraud
or identify companies but I can assure behaviour or actions by the perpetrator committed in corporate Australia and
you I have heard the following during of the fraud or misconduct and the one of the key problems is that a lot of
some of my investigations in numerous systemic where the organisation fails fraud goes undetected and that which
retail chains and outlets, big and small: to prevent or facilitates the misconduct is detected is very often not reported
“I thought it was strange he drove a through a lack of ethical culture, controls to the police. Again the various fraud
Ferrari!” and “I trusted him with the or procedures. There are numerous red surveys give us an indication that fraud is
cash, I cant believe he had been sacked flags that can be identifiers of fraud or probably under reported by about 50%.
for stealing before”, “she was a model misconduct but they are merely that, A quick sum from a non accountant
employee, never took time off and identifiers. In and of themselves they do $345million x 2 (100%) gives us an
always worked late”. There is also the not necessarily mean anything untoward approximate fraud figure of around
person who had accumulated numerous has occurred but with the right policies $700 million. I would go further and
boxes of luxury goods under their desk and procedures these flags can be say that both those figures should be
despite the fact that given their level and effectively assessed and mitigated. considered conservative for a variety
pay grade they were unlikely to be able You may feel, even after these of factors: undetected fraud, lack of
to actually afford such shiny baubles. cautionary tales, that fraud is still not reporting through embarrassment or
That is not to say that just because an issue for your store. Again sadly the market reaction and sadly a perception
your store manager who drives to statistics simply don’t bear this out. In that the law enforcement agencies won’t
work in a Ferrari is skimming cash or the most recent survey conducted by be interested. To further bolster the
fiddling the books. On the contrary there KPMG8 the value of fraud was estimated scary figures the Australian Institute
may be some plausible and perfectly at $345 million up from $301 million in its of Criminology estimates that fraud
logical reasons: a lottery win or family previous outing two years earlier. Now, accounts for 40% of the total cost of all
inheritance for example. The key to there are a couple of things to remember crime perpetrated in Australia9.
effectively assessing red flags is to be able when considering this number. The first Let’s revisit the initial question. Is
to take a “step back” through the use is to remember that this only represents fraud a problem for you? Hopefully
of appropriate controls and procedures figures provided by the respondents to the answer has changed to “this could
which will enable you to look at the the survey and not Australia as a whole. be a problem and I need to assess the
cumulative flags and decide whether Secondly and perhaps critically this potential”. If it has then thankfully
there is indicative behaviour that should represents the figure for fraud that has you are well on the way to effectively
be investigated. been discovered and quantified. managing the risk of fraud and
Red flags generally fall into two There are many difficulties faced preventing a Clive Peeters scenario from
broad categories, individual and systemic. when attempting to put a definitive occurring within your organisation.
8. KPMG Fraud survey 2010.
9. http://www.aic.gov.au/crime_communitycrime/costs.aspx
Industry Intelligence Unit 9

10. IIU Retail August 2012
Our National Retail Team
Grant Thornton is a Simon Trivett
Partner – Audit & Assurance
national full service T +61 3 8663 6001
E simon.trivett@au.gt.com
accounting and business
Gayle Dickerson
advisory practice that Partner – Recovery & Reorganisation
specialises in working with T +61 2 8297 2706
E gayle.dickerson@au.gt.com
retailers of all makes and
Chris Watson
types, big and small. We Associate Director –
closely work with our retail Forensic & Investigation Services
T +61 7 3222 0267
clients, so we understand E chris.watson@au.gt.com
this complex and diverse Adam Pitts
market well. If you would Partner – Audit & Assurance
T +61 3 8663 6186
like to discuss any aspect E adam.pitts@au.gt.com
of the above, please do Louise Worsley
Partner – Audit & Assurance
not hesitate to contact one T +61 2 9286 5604
of our industry experts E louise.worsley@au.gt.com
detailed right. Eric Passaris
Partner – Audit & Assurance
T +61 3 8320 2423
E eric.passaris@au.gt.com
Clive Bird
Partner – Tax
T +61 3 8663 6283
E clive.bird@au.gt.com
Industry Intelligence Unit 10

11. IIU Retail August 2012
Industry Intelligence Unit
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