06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
Under the Lens -Audio Slides - 03-19-13 - sub-GMTP - APRIL 2013 - GOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE
1. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
2. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
GOVERNANCE FAILURE
CORE PROBLEM SYMPTOM
GLOBAL RISK
• 2008 Concerns Political Roadmap
• Central Bank Policy Political OMF
MACRO SITUATION
• EU – Cyprus Distrust Confiscation
• EU – Italy Distrust / Contempt Austerity
• EU – France Socialism Culture
• Japan Desperation Abenomics
• China Stability Corruption
Shadow Banking
US ECONOMICS
• Sequestration Spin Denial Exploding Deficits
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
3. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
4. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
5. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
6. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
7. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
POLICY NOT WORKING – Monetary, Fiscal nor Public Policy
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
8. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
POLICY NOT WORKING – Monetary, Fiscal nor Public Policy
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
9. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
POLICY NOT WORKING – Monetary, Fiscal nor Public Policy
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
10. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
FINANCIAL REPRESSION – Working But Has Stalled Growth
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
11. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
12. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
CYPRUS– Theft, Abandonment of Property Rights & Guarantees
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
13. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
ITALY – Distrust & Contempt
Beppi Grillo
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
14. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
15. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
FRANCE – Culture of Socialism
..tick, tick, tick….
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
16. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
JAPAN – Frustration & Fear
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
17. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
CHINA – Social Stability
50 Million /Year
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
18. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
CHINA – Social Stability
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
19. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
USA – Political Avoidance & Denial,
One Bubble After Another!
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
20. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
21. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
22. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
23. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
24. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
25. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
26. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
27. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
28. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
29. Global Macro Tipping Points
March 19th, 2011
Global Governance Failure
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
30. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Notas do Editor
$1.4 trillion in credit growth in 2012 Corporate bond issuance grew 54% or $657 billion in 2012 According to Barclay’s, the Chinese “‘shadow banking’ industry has nearly doubled in the past two years to $4.11 trillion, or more than a third of total lending China’s plan to allow a 50% jump in its budget deficit to stimulate the economy is driving government bond yields higher, just as inflation accelerates. Ten-year yields may rise 43 bps to 4% by year-end, a level last seen in September 2011, according to HSBC…, HSBC estimates the government will expand its domestic bond sales by an extra 400 billion yuan ($64.3bn) this year to plug a 1.2 trillion yuan deficit, the biggest shortfall since the 2008 global financial crisis Chinese banks have rolled over at least three-quarters of all loans to local governments that were due to mature by the end of 2012, an indication of the immense challenge facing China in working down its debt load. Local governments borrowed heavily from banks to fuel China’s stimulus program during the global financial crisis and are now struggling to generate the revenue to pay them back, a shortfall that could cast a shadow over Chinese economic growth. Banks extended at least Rmb3tn – and perhaps more – of the roughly Rmb4tn in loans plus interest that local governments were to have paid them by the end of last year. Caterpillar just wrote off $600 million that they “invested” in a Chinese heavy equipment company after accounting fraud was identified by internal auditors
El-Erian: “Financial Repression” In the Form of a Negative Real Rate of Return for Savers Is Coming to AmericaPosted on May 17, 2011 by WashingtonsBlogAs CNBC notes:“Others are flashing orange, like the US, and already require future sacrifices, most likely through a combination of higher inflation, austerity and, importantly, financial repression,” said El-Erian, who classifies financial repression as seeking to impose negative real rates of returns on savers.This policy will undermine the real return contract offered to savers and, in El-Erian’s view, come instead of any bold moves to address structural problems and imbalances.“Secular baseline portfolio positioning should minimize exposure to the negative impact of financial repression, hedge against higher inflation and currency depreciation and exploit the heightened differentiation in balance sheets and growth potentials,” El-Erian added.In other words, Pimco co-chair El-Erian is saying that the major flaws in the financial system will not be addressed, the government will keep on printing money, and that the inflation-adjusted return on investments for most Americans will be negative.