Mountain Reservoir Hazards

Lake reservoirs in mountains (moraine lakes orLake reservoirs in mountains (moraine lakes or
equivalent) as the sources of catastrophic eventsequivalent) as the sources of catastrophic events
i.e. flash floods, landslides, avalanches,i.e. flash floods, landslides, avalanches,
tsunamis... by analogy with dam wall rupturestsunamis... by analogy with dam wall ruptures
causing the valley tsunamis.causing the valley tsunamis.
Georges RADJOU
Business Innovation Research
Development (BIRD)
CEO, MBA, DUPEBH
27 ter Bld Saint Martin
75003 Paris
gsradjou@outlook.com
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN MOUNTAIN
(WITH RISK RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES)
UNISDR PREPCOM 1 JULY 14-15, 2014 (SENDAY, 2015 JAPAN, GENEVA MEETING)

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Lake reservoir hazards
(List of hazards found in Uttarakhand river catchment)
Uttarakhand valley
river hazard
Flood Physical Chemical
Sediments Arsenic
Lake
reservoirs
Unwanted
Materials
Tsunami Flash flood
Water
elevation (h)
The reservoir
network

Source: internetUNISDR PREPCOM 1 JULY 14-15, 2014 (SENDAY, 2015 JAPAN, GENEVA MEETING)

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Table 2: Few figures on international disasters
2009: 55 millions people suffer severe stresses with disasters
(Mr J. M. Jarraud, WMO President, Ref: WMO
website)2008: -214 millions humans affected by natural
disasters,
-235 000 killed ones
-Total Billing: $190 billions in damages
-Disaster Costs increase since 1960
-Number of dead stabilized at: 200000/year
-United Nations warned to take specific actions
since 2005, if not there is a risk to jeopardize development
Environment Research
« Le Monde, Special Science » ,Nov-Dec 2009

Table 3: International community tools
against disasters
Satellites:
-give the alert (raise the alarm)-inform the
rescuers of disaster places-play a major role
in dispatching the aids
Computers:-phenomenal speeds of the
calculators help to deal with the need to treat
huge flux of data. – (For instance Meteo
France 2007, Net SX 6R, treats 2300 billions
of operations per second.)Satellite
network:250 satellites with tools to observe
the Earth –up to 10 tools-Forecast
improvement:
A 4 day forecast is equivalent to a 1 day
forecast , 15 years ago
Environment Research « Le Monde, Special
Science » ,Nov-Dec 2009 p-42)

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EE
(S)(S)

Fig. 10 : Classification model for emergencies
Decision
center
Event or threats
Mobilization
Measures
Studies
Technical
measures
Eploitaton
measures
Danger level 1-
Very Likely to be controlled
Acute/reinforced
surveillance
Technical
measures
Exploitaton
measures
Danger level 2
Uncontrollability due to
uncertainties
Alert in stand-by
Pre-alert &
partial
emergency
evacuation
Danger level 3
Not predictable
Rupture (total or
partial)
Evacuation
(Source :author from Claude March, Barrages, crues et protection
civile, press Interantionales, Polytechnique/ dams and civilian protection
p. 276)

3000 m
214 kms
Devaprayag
Alaknanda
Ganga
x Gangotri
temple
16 kms
x Gomukh
Pilgrims
Haridawar
(dam)
253 kms and 312 m from sea level
Hindustan
plain
Yamuna
Allahabad
455 kms
GANGA : 2510 KMS (1,560 Miles) long
Bhagirathi river from ice cave 3,139 m
fall
67 m
1 km
(Snowfield : Gangotri Glacier)
They are 3 peaks over 6,706 m
2817 m
11 m
1 km
Himalaya, bird view map (author map), with the main geography features i.e. highest peaks,
rivers, slopes, pilgrim flocking road, importnt cities, dam, Hindustan plain. From the time the
Himalaya river (Ganga, Yamuna) become visible at Gomukh (spring of the river Ganga) it
will tavel down to the Himalaya after reaching the Hindustan plain to end in the se. The river
journey is a 2,510 kms length
Source: author adpated
from Google map

Tsunami hazards in Himalaya mountains
Lake and river
reservoirs
Sediment deposits
''Size of the layer''
(y)
Reservoir size
Elevation of the wall
(Y)
Cloud
Outbursts
Snowmelt
(Himalaya ice
layer size)
Uttarakhand
water hazard
June 16, 2013
Physical Chemical
Q (m³)
Volume of
the clouds
Buffering action
( delay the rainfall
Flows in the reservoirs)
Erosions Pollutions

Himalaya Mountains
Uttarakhand
Valley
Mountain peaks
Mandakini river
Mandakini river
Forest
Kedarnath
Temple
Lakes reservoirs
slopes
slopes
slopes
Chorabari
glacier
Companion
glacier
Chorabari
lake
Sharaswati
river
Mandakini river

When I talked about the reservoirs in mountains. In a wider extend I referred to the
salvages of environmental buffers that are Himalaya snow and lakes, which were
stabilizing the moutain regions by preventing the catastrophic events.
buffers
2 cloud outbursts
(asian Monsoon)
Lake
reservoirs
Frozen
snow
Man made
activities
Tsunami
salvages
reservoirclouds tsunami

Flood links/risks are directly links between clouds outbursts and
filled reservoir lakes with the same beats (pulsation or
frequency) cloud outbursts are coupled with reservoir lakes, but
there is no systematically disasters, because the couplage is natural, and a natural
valley with reservoirs are natural addaption in the Himalaya landscape. (System
clouds+ reservoirs°
cloud Lake reservoir
Cloud
outburst
Risk of reservoir lake
outbursts / ruptures
Increase
volumes of
THE
RESERVOIR
THE
CLOUDS
THE SEA
UTTARAKHNAD VALLEY RIVER FLOW
MAXIMALISM REGIME (SATURATION)
NO CONNECTION BETWEEN
THE RESERVOIR AND THE SEA
EXCEPT IN CASE OF
RESERVOIR RUPTURES
Normal clouds
outburst(s)
floows
River (uttarakhand valley) Neglected in the modeling, because not
relevant to the flood formation)
A branch of the physical water
river basin (Uttarakhaand basin)
Direct
couplage
reservoir
-clouds
Decouplage
river and sea
Potentail
flood
risks and
disater

a ) L a b 1 : T h e f l o o d c o n c e p t
( S o u r c e : W M O f l o o d p r o g r a m m e )
T h e r a i n
R u n - o f f s
P o l l u t i o n s
F l o o d s
S e d i m e n t s
T h e l a n d
T h e r i v e r
T h e S e a
[ S o u r c e a d a p t a t i o n :
W M O F l o o d p r o g r a m ]
F L O O D I S G O O D F L O O D A N D / O R B A D
FLOOD CONCEPT (WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION AND IGREEN WATER PARTNERSHIP

LevelLevel
of understandingof understanding
(Project ''How'')(Project ''How'')

At width constante, one can measure the lake reservoir surfaces
(m2) in order to have the volumes of water outflows from the inflows
per second
I think it is much easier to assess the surface of the lake rather than
the depth because of the sediment deposit accumulations inside the
lake reservoir in mountains
Shape of the lake reservoir
xmaxymax
zmax
Certainty (controllabity)
Uncertainty
(uncontrollability)
SEDIMENT
DEPOSITS
Zmin ΔZ = Zmax – Zmin
Uncertainty
(uncontrollability)
Lake without sediments ?
(rare)
Lake with sediments
(frequent)

Himalaya moutain tsunami risk
Sediment deposits
y
Y (reservoir size)
Y/y
Ratio (Y/y) sediment layer
size(s) per /reservoir size(s)
Flow in (flow of rupture or running over
the reservoir wall (reservoir size)
/ size of the reservoir
Rainfalls (cloud
volumes)
(Q)
Qo
Q – Qo > Σδqi +ΣΔpi
Lakes/river
reservoirs
Uncertainty
On reservoirsΣΔqi
Uncertainty on
sediments

BUSINESS CASE- (AND STRATEGY CASE)
→ PROJECT ECONOMY
Disaster
Recovery
Operations
Mock drills
failures
Cost benefit
analysis
and cost
sensity
analysis
Costs
(losses)
Costs
(opportunities)
reservoir
Tsunami
Risk

Not all the elements of the water supply are exposed to
the same hazard (Pan WHO latina America)
Uttarakhand communities may have not
been exposed to the same hazards (A1,
A2,... Aj) which is the floods
Uttarakhand flood
river
A1
A2
A j cause(s)
(causes)
(causes)
cause(s) = potential cause(s)
Issues : how to eliminate real (physical) sources from virtual (not physical sources)
U1
Uk
Uncertainties
(1 and k)
SUk (a)
SUk (b)
Uncertainties
sources
river

Profile of a river bed channel (natural or artificial), which can explained violent flows in Uttarakhand
valley are not steady (this is already seen in case of a sharp slope). (It can be source of lake
reservoirs in case with river beds in flat slope mountain or flood plain, too)
Small pocket of water
(a small reservoir or a
small lake)
Big pocket of water
(a large reservoir or a
large lake)
Tiny pocket of
water ( a micro
reservoir or a
micro lake)
3 lake reservoirs in Himalaya mountains, which
are not able to exchange unless there a
rainfall. (scenario of continuity of reservoirs in
an interconnected networks of lakes
Water levelling in lake reservoir in mountains
H1 = H2 = H3 = H
H
H1
H2
H3
Source : author / BIRD adapted from Hydraulics in
civil and environmental engineering, A Spon Book
soil
PRESENTATION OF THE LAKES
OR RIVER BED RESERVOIRS IN
MOUNTAINS
I.E. UTTARAKHAND VALLEY (S)
Fig. 2 : the lake/river reservoirs
in moutains
When there is an important rainfall the 3 reservoirs/lakes are communicating and adding their
flows to make the tsunami in moutain with the action of the gravity force and the rubbles
River boulder size (moraine size)
TSUNAMI

Fig.5: Transport of the load in the river. I have introduced the uncertainty based on the
water quality and the water elevation in the reservoirs. These sources of
uncertainties/uncertainties are likely to be the risk source. The more important are the
uncertainties and the morerlikely is the flood risk as direct relationship between the
reservoir deposit and the tsunami (see also, figure 1 i.e. value chain and balance to
assess unwanted materials (UMS)...
V2
V1
V3
River bed
Unwanted materials Water elevation
Water River flows
Uncertainty 1
(water volume)Uncertainty 2
(water quality)Unwanted materials
Water surface
Source: author / BIRD

When the media told these was a failed mock drill 2 in
2011- For sure it does not mean that either the flood was
predicted or one cannot ignored the discrepancies that
could have led to Uttarakhand disaster. Noneless to say,
the flood was branded.
T = 16 June 2013
Brand
schock
(flood
disaster)
occurred
T = 2011
Mock drill
failures
T=
T – X T = 0 T + a T + a²
Hypothesis : brand schock ?
What has
became
public or
will become
public at
T + a²
Awarness
of
the
brand
schock
QUESTIONWHAT ARE THE VALUE OF X AND A ? IN UTTARAKHAND CASE

India
Uttarakhand
GDP% / km
9
4
2
6
Uttarakhand
Mock drill
failures
Himalaya 8
2011 2013
Himalaya
Uttarakh
and flood
disaster
Uttarakhand
India
India International diplomacy line – media, blogs, social media....
Poliitic Economy Society Tourism Disaster Election
T – X

Mountain wall
(Himalaya) ( 3000 m)Temple
Houses
road
Up-hill
Down-hill
River
stream
(dry)
Risk zone ?
The risk reduction is based on IWRM
(Integrated Water Resource Management)
Recharge
Restock
Restore
Refill
Replenish
Re-use
A 4R management plan program will help Uttarakhand to move out of poverty and Indian
stakeholders have already started- I do not beleive the Dam which has been built is
causing the disaster, but the water Interagtion in Himalay is far form being complete- in
fact, it has jsut started

General Equation of lake/river reservoir in
mountains
in
out
k1
k2
k3
k4
q1
q4
q3
q2
Qo
ko
q4 = (k4/K3) Q3 + (K 3/K2) Q2 + (K2/K1) Q1 + (K1/Ko) Qo
q5 = Σ Δqi
Qo = q4 + q5
q5

A network (nodes + connections) of the lake reservoirs in
Uttarakhand Valley (Himalaya mountains)
A node
(a single
lake reservoir)
Connectors (surface run-offs)
Connectors (underground run-
offs)

Flood as process
''double risk blackbox''
Lake / river reservoirs
in mountain
Flow in
(Fin)
Flow out
(Fout)
sedimentsf(in) f(out)
Qo/T= ΣKij S1 +ΣΔqi Qn/T= ΣΔqiQo/T= ΣKij S1 +ΣΔqi
Qo – Qn = Σkij x S1
Monitor flow entry in
the first lake
Monitor flow entries in
the first lake
Monitor flow exits in the
last lake
Tsunami flow risk =ΣΔqi
F(water) + f (sediment)
f (in) = Po / T f(out) = Σδpi
Total tsunami flow risks : TTFR = Qn/T + Pn / T = ΣΔ qi + ΣΔpi
Tsunami flow risk =ΣΔqi
Water
risk
Sediment
risks

Scheme of the lake reservoirs in the reservoir network
(sample of a network with 4 interconnected reservoirs)
Y V1 V2 V3 V4
Vo
Network of 4 reservoirs / lakes in mountains
Flow in
Flow out
River
regime
Vo/T = Fo
(flow in)
V1 > 4Vo
1
1 + 0.5
1.5
(3/2)
0.66
2/3
0.5Vo
(1/2)
V1 + (V1 + ½ V1) + (V1 + ½ V1 + 2/3 3/2
V
4Vo
6 Vo4Vo
Q4 = k43 x Q3 + k32 x Q2 + k2k1 x Q1 + k1/ko x Qo
k4k3
k3k2
k1 k2
ko k1
K1/ k2 = K12
Q = F x T

i 0 1 2 3 i j kn
J i+1 1 2 3 4 j j+1 Kn+1
K ij K01 K12 K23 K 34 Ki,,j Kj, j+1 Kn,n+1
S1 a1 a1 a1 a1 a1 a1 a1
Si a1 a2 a3 a4 ai aj ak
Sj/Si a1/a1 a2/a1 a3/a2 a4/a 3
Q4 = ΣKij x S1 +
I = 0,...3
J= 1,...4
K = j+1,...n
ΣΔqi
S1
N = 3 ( k = j+1,...n)

A network (nodes + connections) of the lake reservoirs in
Uttarakhand Valley (Himalaya mountains)
A node
(a single
lake reservoir)
Connectors (surface run-offs)
Connectors (underground run-
offs)
?
Small or large reservoirs does not matter so much as 88% of total victims are made by the
reservoir ruptures, which are not in the inventories and 99% of these same victims are within
24 kilometers downhill from the lakes...(I did not verify this formula of number of deads for the
mountain lakes- I have assumed the same rules applied for lake reservoir in mountains
Reservoir
rupture
Origin of
the source
of the
tsunami
flows
Uttarakhand
Valley
24 kilometers
down hill
24 kilometers
Up hillDisaster
range
24 kms
Kerbanath temple
(tsunami disaster)

Fig. 8: Instant flood wall. This is an effective model that I have seen at work
during a meeting in Paris of flood stakeholders (Previrsiq, EU and city resilience
project, Park Floral, France 2010)
The Australian firm, which was manufactruing the item, was a small business full
with entrpreneurship ideas. A folded carpet could be rolled accross a river flow
materializing the flood trajectories and the flood stream.
V1
Frontline of
the flood rope
rolled geo-
membrane
Canal width
(10 meters)
2-3 meters
River channel crossed with a folded geo-membrane
reinforcement
Vo
Water flow penetrations
Geo-membrane starts to raise with the water flow
penetrations inside the membrane
Source : author / BIRD

Flowing water
Water stored
behind the
geo-membrane
Resistive plastic membrane
Security/safety rope
Pressure(s) (P)
Vo
River bed
2.50 m
0.30 mV1
V2
1.80 m
Flood screenReal elevation (2.50 m)
of flood water before the screen
Same flood with a lesser
elevation (0.70 m) after
the flood screen
Micro
waterfall
Steady flows
Turbulent flows
Fig. 9 : acting flood wall showing the flow reduction/cut by the size of the
screen. The screen, which is built with a geo-mebrane acting on the flood as a
discharge and preventing the flood risk to create more damages.
Source : author /BIRD UNISDR PREPCOM 1 JULY 14-15, 2014 (SENDAY, 2015 JAPAN, GENEVA MEETING)

Proposed
Solution

Dry canal
Wet canal
Danger (flood
prone canal)
(Uttarakhand) If there is a
monsoon, the
regime inthe dry
canal will varied
in an
uncontrollable
way,
also,because it
is dry, it is
perceive as a
dormant canal.
Poeple do not
fear becaus
there is no water
The behavior of this canal is known
because it is not dormant, water in part
of the canal network- there aremore
controllabilty in case of flood-because of
less unknowns
THE LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF THE INDIA
PROJECT AGAINST FLOOD RIVER BRANCHES IS INDIA
CANAL LEVELLING (constant highr river regime (canal c) is
better than important river variability (canal b)-due to the
flood risk issue.
Canal A
(flood unsafe
canal)
Canal B
100 km
Flood safe
canal
Water transferred
Water
transferred
Canal C
Water Donor
canal

Dry canal
Wet canal
Danger
(Uttarakhand)
If there is a
monsoon, the
regime inthe
dry canal will
varied in an
uncontrollabl
e way,
also,because
it is dry, it is
perceive as a
dormant
canal. Poeple
do not fear
becaus there
is no water
The behavior of htis canal is known
because it is not dormant, water in part
of the canal network- there aremore
controllabilty in case of flood-because of
less unknowns
THE LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF THE INDIA
PROJECT AGAINST FLOOD RIVER BRANCHES IS INDIA
CANAL LEVELLING (constant highr river regime (canal c) is
better than important river variability (canal b)-due to the
flood risk issue.
Canal A
(flood safe
canal
Canal B
100 km
Flood
safe
canal
Water transferred
Water
transferred
Canal C
Water Donor
canal

RISK TRIANGLE AND DECISION MAKING IN THE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Low
cost Intervention if the risk
can be reduced
High risk
No intervention
Cost too important
intervention
Cost acceptable
Low risk
Excessive
cost
No intervention
Intermediate risk
Intervention
assessment
Cost assessment
Relation between the levels of the risks and the needed investments to prevent or
reduce these risk occurrences (bearing in mind that no risk is 100% reductable)
(Sustain,ble development in disater management '' risk 0'', and the
precautionary measures apply)

Mountain Reservoir Hazards

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