CyrusOne reported solid 4Q14 results with revenue and FFO slightly ahead of expectations. Management provided an overview of why lower oil prices are not expected to materially impact the business. Notably, CyrusOne increased its dividend by 50% to an annual yield of 4.2%, ahead of expectations and pointing to a focus on FFO growth and profitability over top-line growth. While 2015 guidance was below estimates, management appears to be conservative and trends indicate performance towards the mid-point is likely.
Data Center REIT CyrusOne Reports Solid 4Q14 Results and Substantial Dividend Increase
1. Telecom Services: Data Center REITs
CyrusOne
Equity Research Earnings Update
www.cowen.com Please see addendum of this report for important disclosures.
February 19, 2015
Price: $30.16 (02/18/2015)
Price Target: $34.00 (Prior $32.00)
OUTPERFORM (1)
Solid 4Q14 Results; Substantial Dividend
Increase
Colby Synesael
646.562.1355
colby.synesael@cowen.com
Jonathan Charbonneau
646.562.1356
jonathan.charbonneau@cowen.com
Gregory Williams, CFA
646.562.1367
gregory.williams@cowen.com
Key Data
Symbol NYSE: CONE
52-Week Range: $31.02 - 19.52
Market Cap (MM): $1,968.0
Net Debt (MM): $636.7
Cash/Share: $6.77
Dil. Shares Out (MM): 38.7
Enterprise Value (MM): $2,604.7
ROIC: 4.2%
ROE (LTM): (1.7)%
BV/Share: $12.25
Dividend: $1.26
Yield: 4.18%
FY (Dec) 2014A 2015E 2016E
Funds From Operations
Q1 $0.42 $0.49 -
Prior Q1 - $0.46 -
Q2 $0.39 $0.49 -
Prior Q2 - - -
Q3 $0.44 $0.50 -
Prior Q3 - - -
Q4 $0.48 $0.53 -
Prior Q4 $0.42 $0.55 -
Year $1.73 $2.01 $2.39
Prior Year $1.67 $1.99
Revenue (MM)
Year $330.9 $376.7 $430.4
Prior Year $328.5 $386.3
EV/S 7.9x 6.9x 6.1x
The Cowen Insight
CONE reported solid 4Q14 results including rev/FFO slightly ahead of expectations
and provided useful color as to why it doesn’t expect any material impact from lower
oil prices. The company also increased its dividend by 50% which now implies a 4.2%
yield and was meaningfully ahead expectations and provided initial 2015 guidance
that while slightly below estimates we view as conservative.
Conclusion
CONE reported solid 4Q14 results including revenue/FFO that beat expectations
driven in part by higher installs than was expected. Mgmt. also provided an in-depth
overview as to why it doesn’t expect lower oil prices to have a material impact on
its business despite meaningful concerns from investors heading into the quarter.
To this point, its energy vertical has grown at a ~7% CAGR the past two years vs.
~30% CAGR across its other verticals which points to the decreasing reliance on the
energy vertical for growth. Notably, the company also increased its dividend by 50% to
$0.315/share which equates to an annual yield of 4.2% and was meaningfully ahead
of expectations driven by its decision to increase its AFFO payout ratio to be more
in-line with peers. We believe this also points to the company’s increasing focus on
FFO growth and profitability vs. simply top-line growth which to date has been the
primary focus. While 2015 revenue/FFO guidance was slightly below expectations, we
get the sense the company is simply trying to be conservative at this point in the year
and believe it is likely trending towards at least the mid-point given the solid trends
currently being witnessed. Reiterate Outperform.
Results
Rev was $86.9MM vs. our $84.5MME and the Street’s $85.6MME and EBITDA was
$44.6MM (51.3%) vs. our $41.9MME (49.6%) and the Street’s $42.9MM (50.1%).
Normalized FFO was $0.48 vs. our $0.42E and the Street’s $0.42E. CONE leased 44K
CSF vs. 33K CSF last quarter and 47K CSF a year ago. Churn declined to 1.7% from
2.9% last quarter although it is expected to be ~3.0% in 1Q15 and to revert back to
more historical levels thereafter.
Guidance
For 2015, the company provided revenue of $370-385MM (Street Old: $380.3MME),
EBITDA of $185-195MM (Street Old: $194.6MME), normalized FFO of $1.90-2.00
(Street Old: $1.98), and capex of $215-240MM.
Valuation
CONE trades at 15.0x 2015E FFO vs. the comp at 16.0x. We believe CONE should trade
at a premium due to superior rev/FFO growth over the next few years. Using a 15.0x
EBITDA exit multiple and a 9.1% WACC, our DCF valuation implies the stock is worth
$34 (prior $32).
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2. At A Glance
Our Investment Thesis
CONE reported solid 4Q14 results including revenue/FFO that beat expectations.
Mgmt. also provided an in-depth overview as to why it doesn’t expect lower oil prices
to have a material impact on its business despite meaningful concerns from investors
heading into the quarter. Notably, the company also increased its dividend by 50% to
$0.315/share which equates to an annual yield of 4.2% and was meaningfully ahead
of expectations driven by its decision to increase its AFFO payout ratio to be more
in-line with peers. We believe this also points to the company’s increasing focus on
FFO growth and profitability vs. simply top-line growth which to date has been the
primary focus. While 2015 revenue/FFO guidance was slightly below expectations, we
get the sense the company is simply trying to be conservative at this point in the year
and believe it is likely trending towards at least the mid-point given the solid trends
currently being witnessed.
Forthcoming Catalysts
■ 1Q15 earnings call in May 2015.
Base Case Assumptions
■ 2014E-2019E revenue CAGR of 11.8%
■ EBITDA margin is 49.6% in 2019E
■ Apply a 15.0x terminal EBITDA
multiple to our DCF
Upside Scenario
■ 2014E-2019E revenue CAGR of
>11.8%
■ EBITDA margin is >49.6% in 2019E
■ Stock trades at an implied value of
>15.0x terminal EBITDA multiple
Downside Scenario
■ 2014E-2019E revenue CAGR of
<11.8%
■ EBITDA margin is <49.6% in 2019E
■ Stock trades at an implied value of
<15.0x terminal EBITDA multiple
Price Performance
Feb-15Nov-14Aug-14May-14
$32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
Source: Bloomberg
Company Description
Based in Dallas, Texas, CyrusOne is an owner, operator, and developer of carrier-
neutral data centers with ~25 data centers in and around roughly eight cities within
the U.S. as well as in London and Singapore. The company’s goal is to be the preferred
global data center provider to the Fortune 1000 and it currently has ~600 customers
including nine of the Fortune 20 and 135 of the Fortune 1000. It focuses on attracting
customers who have not historically outsourced their data center needs and provides
customers with a flexible array of solutions ranging from a single rack to large 50K sq.
ft. wholesale type deployments although with a differentiated focus on service.
Analyst Top Picks
Ticker Price (02/18/2015) Price Target Rating
Rackspace Hosting RAX $51.12 $75.00 Outperform
Level 3 Communications LVLT $53.31 $62.00 Outperform
Cogent Communications Group CCOI $39.50 $47.00 Outperform
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8. CyrusOne DCF
($mn) Terminal
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Value
Revenue $331 $377 $430 $487 $536 $577
EBITDA 169 189 216 243 267 287 4,300
CFO 111 151 153 168 187 221
Capex 284 230 214 186 158 129
Free Cash Flow (173) (79) (62) (18) 29 92
ADD BACK: Interest Expense 41 52 58 67 72 75
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (132) (28) (4) 48 102 167
Year 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 4.5
Present Value Discount Factor 1.00 1.04 1.14 1.24 1.36 1.48 1.48
Present Value of Free Cash Flow (132) (27) (4) 39 75 113 2,904
Today
Total PV of Free Cash Flow $197
Percentage of DCF 6.3%
Terminal Value $2,904
Percentage of DCF 93.7%
Sum of DCFs $3,101
Net Debt and Preferred Stock $637
Net Equity Value $2,464
Other/Cash $0
Private market value $2,464
less 10% public / private discount ($246)
Public market value $2,218
Shares Outstanding 65.3
Fair Value Price $33.99
Current Price $30.16
WACC 9.1%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple 15.0
Risk Free Rate 2.5%
Beta 1.0
Equity Premium 10.2%
Cost of Debt 6.0%
Percentage of Capital 50.0%
Cost of Equity 12.2%
Percentage of Capital 50.0%
Valuation Summary
Terminal Multiple 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0
Discount Rate 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%
Sum of PV of Free Cash Flow $197 $197 $197 $197 $197 $197 $197 $197 $197
PV of Terminal Value $2,130 $2,323 $2,517 $2,710 $2,904 $3,098 $3,291 $3,485 $3,679
Sum of DCFs $2,327 $2,520 $2,714 $2,907 $3,101 $3,295 $3,488 $3,682 $3,875
less net debt $637 $637 $637 $637 $637 $637 $637 $637 $637
Net Equity Value $1,690 $1,883 $2,077 $2,271 $2,464 $2,658 $2,851 $3,045 $3,239
Other/Cash $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Private market value $1,690 $1,883 $2,077 $2,271 $2,464 $2,658 $2,851 $3,045 $3,239
less 10% public / private discount ($169) ($188) ($208) ($227) ($246) ($266) ($285) ($305) ($324)
Public market value $1,521 $1,695 $1,869 $2,044 $2,218 $2,392 $2,566 $2,741 $2,915
Diluted Shares Outstanding 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
Per Share $23.31 $25.98 $28.65 $31.32 $33.99 $36.66 $39.33 $42.00 $44.67
Enterprise Value $2,158 $2,332 $2,506 $2,680 $2,855 $3,029 $3,203 $3,377 $3,552
EV / 2015E Revenue 5.7x 6.2x 6.7x 7.1x 7.6x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x 9.4x
EV / 2015E EBITDA 11.4x 12.3x 13.2x 14.2x 15.1x 16.0x 16.9x 17.8x 18.8x
Source: Company data, Cowen and Company estimates
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9. Comparative Analysis – Data Services REITs
Dividend Dividend
C ompany Ticker Rating Price Mkt C ap EV FFO/Sh Yield Payout Total Debt/ Net Debt/ 2014 2015
2/18/2015 $ MM $ MM C 2015E C 2016E C 2015E C 2016E C 2015E C 2016E C 2015E C 2016E C 2015E C 2016E C 2015E C 2016E C 2015E C 2016E C 2015E (% of AFFO) Total C ap EBITDA YTD
Towers
American Tower AMT * 1 $96.20 38,662 53,595 4,627 5,086 2,949 3,254 $4.91 $5.55 $5.03 $5.77 18.2x 16.5x 19.6x 17.3x 19.1x 16.7x 12.7% 10.8% 14.6% 10.9% 1.8% 34.0% 79.3% 5.4x 23.8% -2.7%
Crown Castle CCI * 1 $88.20 30,352 41,949 3,753 3,849 2,157 2,245 $4.36 $4.56 $4.38 $4.85 19.5x 18.7x 20.2x 19.3x 20.1x 18.2x 1.7% 0.9% 7.2% 4.5% 3.7% 74.9% 67.5% 5.3x 7.2% 12.1%
SBA Coms. SBAC * 1 $122.17 15,824 23,757 1,686 1,763 1,108 1,196 $5.61 $6.31 $5.81 $6.55 21.4x 19.9x 21.8x 19.4x 21.0x 18.6x 11.1% 12.1% 22.8% 13.3% NA NA 101.8% 7.8x 23.3% 10.3%
Mean 19.7x 18.3x 20.5x 18.7x 20.1x 17.8x 8.5% 7.9% 14.9% 9.6% 2.7% 54.5% 82.9% 6.2x 18.1% 6.6%
Median 19.5x 18.7x 20.2x 19.3x 20.1x 18.2x 11.1% 10.8% 14.6% 10.9% 2.7% 54.5% 79.3% 5.4x 23.3% 10.3%
REIT Co-lo
CoreSite COR * 2 $48.52 2,288 2,711 317 364 156 180 $2.59 $2.94 $2.24 $2.58 17.4x 15.0x 18.7x 16.5x 21.7x 18.8x 16.5% 17.1% 16.8% 26.7% 3.6% 77.8% 49.7% 2.1x 21.3% 24.3%
CyrusOne CONE * 1 $30.16 1,968 2,605 377 430 189 216 $2.01 $2.39 $1.94 $2.25 13.8x 12.1x 15.0x 12.6x 15.5x 13.4x 13.8% 11.8% 16.0% 13.6% 4.2% 64.8% 59.4% 3.6x NA 9.5%
Digital Realty Trust DLR * 2 $67.58 9,369 15,075 1,656 1,733 969 1,017 $5.03 $5.09 $3.74 $3.86 15.6x 14.8x 13.4x 13.3x 18.1x 17.5x 2.5% 3.5% 1.3% -1.5% 5.0% 89.9% 54.6% 4.7x 35.0% 1.9%
Dupont Fabros DFT * 1 $32.06 2,637 3,984 432 482 289 322 $2.51 $2.80 $2.64 $2.94 13.8x 12.4x 12.8x 11.4x 12.2x 10.9x 3.4% 5.1% 4.7% 5.0% 5.3% 64.9% 47.9% 3.5x 34.5% -3.5%
Equinix EQIX * 2 $228.91 13,104 16,549 2,638 2,925 1,221 1,361 $11.44 $13.59 $13.36 $15.48 13.5x 12.2x 20.0x 16.8x 17.1x 14.8x 8.4% 9.9% 8.1% -2.0% 1.7% 29.7% 58.0% 3.0x 32.8% 1.0%
QTS Realty Trust QTS NR $37.80 1,409 1,995 260 302 120 144 $2.32 $2.67 $2.31 $2.74 16.6x 13.9x 16.3x 14.2x 16.3x 13.8x 20.1% 25.1% 17.0% 16.9% 3.7% 60.9% 60.6% 0.6x NA 11.7%
Mean 15.1x 13.4x 16.0x 14.1x 16.8x 14.9x 8.9% 9.5% 9.4% 8.3% 4.0% 65.4% 53.9% 3.4x 30.9% 6.6%
Median 14.7x 13.6x 14.2x 12.9x 16.8x 15.5x 8.6% 8.5% 10.4% 9.3% 4.6% 71.3% 52.2% 3.5x 34.5% 5.7%
Market Indices
S&P 500 .SPX 2,100 1,168 1,159 220 233 NA NA NA NA 10.2x 9.3x NM NM NM NM 4.9% -81.9% NA NA 2.1% NA NA NA 11.4% 2.0%
1 = Outperform, 2 = Market Perform, 3 = Underperform, NR = Not Rated
* Cowen covered company
BASIC INFORMATION VALUATION 2015E Growth
AFFO/ShP/FFOFFOEBITDARevenue
BASIC FINANC IALS
AFFO
Performance
EV/EBITDA P/AFFO
Leverage (LQA)
Sales EBITDA
Source: Company data, Thomson One, Cowen and Company estimates
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10. Valuation Methodology And Risks
Valuation Methodology
Telecom Services:
Our valuation methodology consists of an absolute and relative value approach.
We arrive at a fair value utilizing a five-year discounted cash flow (DCF) and when
appropriate a segmented sum-of-parts (SOP) analysis. Our relative value approach
takes into account EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and P/E and, when applicable, P/AFFO and
dividend yield.
Investment Risks
Telecom Services:
Risks Include: (1) many companies within Telecom Services are highly regulated
where a change in rules could lead to unfavorable conditions; (2) rapidly changing/
disruptive technology, new product/service offerings, and evolving industry/technology
standards could have an impact on demand and/or pricing; and (3) deterioration in
the macro environment both domestically and internationally could lead to a reduction
in demand and a consequent impact on valuation multiples.
Risks To The Price Target
Risks for CyrusOne include: 1) a likely secondary-offering by its largest shareholder
may limit near-term upside until its completed, 2) the co-location industry in which
CyrusOne operates is competitive with a growing number of competitors, and 3) the
data center stocks are particularly susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates in which
rising/falling rates may have a negative/positive impact on the stock price.
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12. Cowen And Company Rating Definitions
Distribution of Ratings/Investment Banking Services (IB) as of 12/31/14
Rating Count Ratings Distribution Count IB Services/Past 12 Months
Buy (a) 461 60.50% 109 23.64%
Hold (b) 288 37.80% 14 4.86%
Sell (c) 13 1.71% 0 0.00%
(a) Corresponds to "Outperform" rated stocks as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's rating definitions. (b) Corresponds to "Market Perform" as defined in Cowen and Company,
LLC's ratings definitions. (c) Corresponds to "Underperform" as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's ratings definitions.
Note: "Buy", "Hold" and "Sell" are not terms that Cowen and Company, LLC uses in its ratings system and should not be construed as investment options. Rather, these ratings
terms are used illustratively to comply with FINRA and NYSE regulations.
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13. Points Of Contact
Analyst Profiles
Colby Synesael
New York
646.562.1355
colby.synesael@cowen.com
Colby Synesael is a senior analyst
covering telecom & data services. He
joined Cowen in 2010 and has been on
Wall Street since 2001.
Jonathan Charbonneau
New York
646.562.1356
jonathan.charbonneau@cowen.com
Jonathan Charbonneau is an associate
covering telecom & data services. He
previously worked at Kaufman Bros. and
Merriman Curhan Ford.
Gregory Williams, CFA
New York
646.562.1367
gregory.williams@cowen.com
Gregory Williams is an associate
covering telecom & data services. He
worked a combined twelve years at
AT&T, J.P. Morgan and Sidoti & Co.
Reaching Cowen
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646.562.1000
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Suite 417
Atlanta, GA 30326
866.544.7009
Boston
Two International Place
Boston, MA 02110
617.946.3700
800.343.7068
Chicago
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Chicago, IL 60602
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Cleveland
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800.858.9316
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