Security Risks of Critical Infrastructures in the Oil and Gas Sectors

Paul Scherrer Institut Peter Burgherr, Petrissa Eckle & Stefan Hirschberg Security Risks of Critical Infrastructures in the Oil and Gas Sectors 10. Juni 2010 PSI,

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O&G Infrastructures in the Context of Energy Security 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Energy Sector ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Oil & Natural Gas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Critical Infrastructure Key Resource

Components of Security Risks in the Energy Sector 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Availability risks  geopolitical, short- and/or long-term limitations Import dependency  no/little diversity, transit countries Rising and volatile prices  domestic social/political issues Overall stability and reliability of the supply system  resilience Climate change risks  environmental and health risks Regulatory risks  flawed regulations Comparative Risk Assessment  Accident Database ENSAD Severe accidents Vandalism, sabotage and terrorist threat

Oil and Gas Energy Chains 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Downstream: refining / processing, distribution of oil products and processed natural gas Midstream: storage and transport of crude oil and natural gas Upstream: exploration and extraction of crude oil and natural gas Generation: power and heating plants

10. Juni 2010 PSI, Methodological Framework for Severe Accident Analysis Primary Information Sources Energy-Related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) Evaluation Dataset Comparative Risk Assessment PSA Comprehensive and worldwide Fossil, hydro, nuclear, renewables Full energy chains Scope and objectives Tailored database queries Geo-referencing / coupling with external data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Severe Accident Definition and Consequence Indicators 10. Juni 2010 PSI, ,[object Object],[object Object],Economic loss Release of hydrocarbons Land/water contamination Evacuees Food consumption ban Fatalities Injuries Impact Category USD per GWeyr ≥ 5 Mio USD (2000) Economic Tonne per GWeyr km 2 per GWeyr ≥ 10’000 t ≥ 25 km 2 Environmental Evacuees per GWeyr Nominal scale ≥ 200 yes Societal Fatalities per GWeyr Injured per GWeyr ≥ 5 ≥ 10 Human health Consequence indicator ENSAD severity threshold Risk description

Examples of O&G Infrastructure Accidents 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Hurricane Katrina (USA), platform Kocaeli earthquake (Tur), fire at refinery Lightning struck oil storage tank Natech Technological Intentional Fire/explosion at LNG facility (Algeria) Prestige,Galicia (Spain) Deepwater Horizon (USA), platform refinery attack Saudi Arabia guerilla attack on gas pipeline 8Mexico) Explosion of tapped gasoline pipeline, Nigeria tanker Sirius Star hijacked by pirates

10. Juni 2010 PSI, ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Burgherr et al., 2010 Severe Accidents with at least 5 fatalities (1970-2008) 6 6 24 24 60 54 Wind (f) 2796 69 571 22 1880 60 LPG 21 (e) 1 — — — — Geothermal 18 (c) 2 — — — — Biogas 30 ‚ 007 (d) 12 116 (b) 1 14 1 Hydro — 366 1236 989 Fatalities — 37 64 45 Accidents EU 27 — 109 179 88 Accidents OECD — 1257 3383 2313 Fatalities Fatalities Accidents Energy chain Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal 1549 77 31 (g) 1 19’381 352 8153 25 ‘ 821 (a) 164 1440 (a) non-OECD

Aggregated Fatality Rates in O&G chains (1970-2008) 10. Juni 2010 PSI, ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Import-adjusted EU 27 Fatality Rates in O&G chains (1970-2008) 10. Juni 2010 PSI, ,[object Object],[object Object]

Multivariate Risk Scores for O&G chains (1970-2008) 10. Juni 2010 PSI, ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Refinery Accidents (2000-2008) 10. Juni 2010 PSI,

Worldwide Distribution of Tanker Spills vs Piracy Attacks 10. Juni 2010 PSI, ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusions 10. Juni 2010 PSI, ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Thank you for your attention! 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis http://www.psi.ch/gabe [email_address] In several languages risk often has the double meaning of chance, opportunity” and “danger, loss” Probable origins of risk lie in the Greek word rhiza, meaning “root and/or cliff”, or the Arabic word rizq meaning “what God and fate provide for your life”. In our everyday language we use proverbs such as“Nothing ventured, nothing gained” or “God helps the brave”.

Security Risks of Critical Infrastructures in the Oil and Gas Sectors

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