Risk and Disaster - Challenge from a Global Perspective
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Overview on risks and disasters from a holistic perspective. How to cope with risks? The GRF Davos integral risk reduction and disaster management approach
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Risk and Disaster - Challenge from a Global Perspective
- 1. www.grforum.org Risks and disasters – Challenges from a global perspective Walter J. Ammann, President and CEO Global Risk Forum GRF Davos, Davos
- 3. Multi hazard/ multi risk approach needed FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES/ TSUNAMIS DROUGHTS, DESERTIFICATION LANDSLIDES WILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TERRORISM LAND DEGRADATION PANDEMICS FINANCIAL CRISES BIOLOGICAL THREATS
- 8. Natural disasters: Losses Source: Figure and text: Munich Re Topics Geo 2007
- 10. Social Injustice Climate change will worsen the situation
- 18. Space objects - historical comparison Pre-1957 2005
- 21. CO 2 -Emissions rise faster than in the business as usual scenario (A1FI) Raupbach 2009 CO 2 -emissions [G tons CO 2 / year] 21 25 29 33 37
- 26. Climate Change - Impact Source: W. Fust (2009), What will it take? Mitigation of Climate Change, talk at Global Humanitarian Forum, October 2009, Geneva
- 29. Aral Sea Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Land degradation affects the quantity and quality of freshwater supplies. Contributes significantly to water scarcity, food crisis, and internal displacement of people, mass migration, and social breakdown.
- 33. Lake Chad Africa
- 36. Environmentally induced migration Source: WBGU 2007
- 39. Climate Justice – Facts & Explanations Source: W. Fust (2009), What will it take? Mitigation of Climate Change, talk at Global Humanitarian Forum, October 2009, Geneva
- 44. Hunger - Facts Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation United Nations:
- 45. Hunger - Facts Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation United Nations:
- 48. Megacities - Outlook Source: „ The world's largest cities and urban areas in 2006 and 2020 “, Tann vom Hove , CityMayors
- 49. Urban Growth – Baltimore/Washington
- 55. Multi hazard/ multi risk approach needed FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES/ TSUNAMIS DROUGHTS, DESERTIFICATION LANDSLIDES WILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TERRORISM LAND DEGRADATION PANDEMICS FINANCIAL CRISES BIOLOGICAL THREATS IT - Security
- 56. Multi sectors and disciplines approach Natural Disaster Reduction TECHNICAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC LEGAL ADMINISTRATIVE Scientific to be considered in its widest sense to include the natural, environmental, social, economic, health & engineering sciences Technical to include relevant matters of technology, engineering practice & implementation Interdisciplinarity & transdisciplinarity needed
- 58. Multi interface approach and underlaying factors Climate Change, Climate Variation Desertification, Land Degradation, Drought Continuous degradation of ecosystems Food, water, energy security, conflicts, migration Human Factors
- 59. Multi Measures Approach Risk cascade in integral risk management Total original risk level Residual Risk Avoiding, eliminating risk situations (land-use planning) Risk reduction by preventive measures Early warning, Emergency Management Risk Transfer (Micro-) Insurance Self-Responsibility
- 60. Multi Measures Approach along the risk cycle in integral risk management RECOVERY INTERVENTION PREVENTION Rehabilitation Insurance Technical measures Organisational measures Education Training Organisational measures Emergency/Crisis Management
- 61. Schematic of Resilience Time Functionality 100% t event Recovery Time t recovery Loss in Functionality (Vulnerability) Robustness A Resilience is high if A is small Event
- 62. Resilience Time Functionality, Service Level 100% t event Recovery Time t recovery Vulnerability Resilience
- 63. Resilience Time Functionality 100% t event Recovery Time t recovery Vulnerability Minimize damage Improve building, systems and component performance Reduce the probability of and consequences at failure
- 64. Resilience Time Functionality 100% t event Recovery Time Resilience t recovery Vulnerability Disaster response plan Repairability of structures, components Reduce the time to recovery
- 65. Resilience Time Functionality 100% t event Recovery Time t recovery Vulnerability Holistic disaster prevention, response and recovery management
- 66. Resilience. What can we do? Time Functionality 100% t event Recovery Time Resilience t recovery Vulnerability Robustness Prevention Building codes Micro-Zonation a Preparedness Seismic retrofitting Business continuity plans c b e f d Intervention Professional emergency management Rapid damage assessment Recovery Insurances Reconstruction plans Do it even better! Improve building codes Reconstruction at other places d to minimize Politically most sensible domain High visibility – high media coverages
- 72. The three pillars of the Global Risk Forum GRF GRF GLOBAL RISK FORUM DAVOS IDRC International Disaster & Risk Conference Risk Academy GRF Platform for Networks
- 74. International Disaster & Risk Conference - IDRC Davos 2010 Call for Abstracts open until 13 December 2009 www.grforum.org May 30 – June 3, 2010
Notas do Editor
- Why the variation in estimates? Different estimation methods used Variations in environmental degradation scenarios Lack of precise definitions about who the migrants are
- Desertification is the degradation of land in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas. It is caused primarily by human activities and climatic variations .“ Desertification does not refer to the expansion of existing deserts . It occurs because dryland ecosystems [...] are extremely vulnerable to over-exploitation and inappropriate land use. Dryland ecosystems cover over one third of the world‘s land area. Over 250 million people are directly affected by desertification , and about one billion people in over one hundred countries are at risk . Combating desertification is essential to ensuring the long-term productivity of inhabited drylands. Unfortunately, past efforts have too often failed , and around the world the problem of land degradation continues to worsen.
- Aral Sea, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan The name “ Aral Sea “ comes from the word “aral” meaning island. The sea’s name reflects the fact that it is a vast basin that lies as an island among waterless deserts. The Aral Sea was once the world’s fourth-largest inland sea. Its problems began in the 1960s and 1970s with the diversion of the main rivers that feed it to provide for cotton cultivation in arid Soviet Central Asia. The surface of the Aral Sea once measured 66 100 km2 (25 521 square miles). By 1987, about 60 per cent of the Aral Sea’s volume had been lost, its depth had declined by 14 m (45 feet), and its salt concentration had doubled, killing the commercial fi shing trade. Wind storms became toxic, carrying fi ne grains of clay and salts deposited on exposed sea floor. Life expectancies in the districts near the sea are significantly lower than in surrounding areas. The sea is now a quarter of the size it was 50 years ago and has broken into two parts, the North Aral Sea and the South Aral Sea. Re-engineering along the Syr Darya River delta in the north will retain water in the North Aral Sea, thereby drying the South Aral Sea completely, perhaps within 15 years.
- L AKE C HAD, A FRICA Lake Chad, located at the junction of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon was once the sixth-largest lake in the world. Persistent droughts have shrunk it to about a tenth of its former size. The lake has a large drainage basin—1.5 million km2 (0.6 million square miles)—but almost no water flows in from the dry north. Ninety per cent of lake’s water fl ows in from the Chari River. The lakebed is flat and shallow; even before the drought, the lake was no more than 5-8 m (16-26 ft) deep. Considered a deep wetland, Lake Chad was once the second largest wetland in Africa, highly productive, and supporting a diversity of wildlife. The lake is very responsive to changes in rainfall. When rains fail, the lake drops rapidly because annual infl ow is 20-85 per cent of the lake’s volume. Human diversion from the lake and from the Chari River may be significant at times of low flow, but rainfall is still the determining factor in lake level. This image set displays a continued decline in lake surface area from 22 902 km2 (8 843 square miles) in 1963 to a meager 304 km2 (117 square miles) in 2001.
- Genfer Konvention: - ausserhalb des Landes Begründete Furcht vor Verfolgung Verfolgung aufgrund von Rasse, Nationalität, Religion, Zugehörigkeit zu einer bestimmtenSozialen oder Politischen Meinung 1951 Geneva Convention on the Status of Refugees> the person must be outside their country of nationality or former habitual residence; the person must fear persecution ; The fear of persecution must be for reasons of one of the five convention grounds ( race, nationality, religion, membership of a particular social group or political opinion ); and the fear must be well-founded . Many variations of El-Hinnawi’s definition since 1985 e.g. Jacobson 1988, Myers 1993 Definitions with respect to “environmental refugees” generally have in common the fact that they do not distinguish whether the persons migrating or fleeing have crossed an international border. However, other than this commonality, definitions vary greatly, including whether displacement of environmental refugees is temporary or permanent in nature.
- Temporär oder Permanent Interne oder über Nationale Grenzen gehend Freiwillig oder unfreiwillig Aufgrund von plötzlichen oder schleichenden Naturgefahren This definition s eeks to encompass population movement or displacement: Temporary or permanent; internal or cross-border Regardless of whether voluntary or involuntary Due to sudden or gradual environmental change
- Why the variation in estimates? Different estimation methods used Variations in environmental degradation scenarios Lack of precise definitions about who the migrants are
- Our future includes: More remotely sensed data Landsat 7 management Integrated data National Atlas What we did in response to Hurricane Mitch Applications with other natural sciences Mining our data holdings (Urban retrospectives)