The document discusses the potential for irreversible collapse of modern society due to increasing fragility from interdependent systems. As resources become more scarce and societies lack resilience, collapse could occur from factors including climate change, energy shortages, and environmental degradation stressing linked geopolitical, economic, and infrastructure networks. Previous advanced civilizations like Rome demonstrate how even sophisticated societies can fall. The growing closeness of different domino-like sectors elevates risks, requiring new resilience, though opportunities exist for leadership and coordinated action to avert collapse.

1. Thinking
the impossible
Societal Collapse?

2. The Big Picture
• Irreversible collapse of modern society
• - resources becoming more scarce
• - fragile interdependencies
• - lack of resilience
• - end of growth
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-
collapse-study-scientists

3. "This time it's different"
• The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally
advanced Han, Mauryan, and Mesopotamian
Empires, are all testimony to the fact that
advanced, sophisticated, complex, and
creative civilizations can be both fragile and
impermanent.

4. Beyond single disasters: Society!
 Geopolitics
 Energy
 Climate
 Environment
 Resources
 Industry
 Supply Chain
 Economy
 Digital World
 Finance

5. Interdependencies developed over time
Geopolitics
EnvironmentEnergy
Climate
Resources
Industry
Supply Chain
Economy
Digital World
Finance

6. Financial Markets alone…
Nature 2012, volume 2, article 541, 02.08.2012
…look like this!

7. Energy: The slide nobody wants to see
http://alfin2100.blogspot.be/2010/09/understanding-belief-in-peak-oil-is-end.html
Energy Consumption

8. Squeezing out the last margins …
Geopolitics:
Arab Spring
Supply Chain:
Food crisis
Energy:
Shale gas
Finance:
Flash Crash
Resources:
Just-in-time
failure
Resources:
Rare Earths
Energy:
Off-shore drilling
Digital:
Melissa virus
Energy:
No redundancy
Finance:
bank run,
state defaults
Supply Chain:
E.coli spread
Transport:
Shortcuts

9. The Big Picture
• Moving our domino bricks closer in!
• More resilience required!

10. Questions
 How big is the issue?
 Are there alternatives?
 What can be done?
 Who will have to act?
… more in the special panel session tomorrow!

11. The new European Commission
Next EU summit: August 30, 2014
New EU Commission: November 1st, 2014
An opportunity
to create resilience
The time is now!