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1 • 3/21/11
The Importance of Agricultural
Data and Informatics for
Climate Change Adaptation
Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez,
Glenn Hyman, Jacob van Etten
CCAFS
2 • 3/21/11
The
Challenge
3 • 3/21/11
The concentration of
GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for
crop suitability
4 • 3/21/11
Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact
for wheat
Observed changes in growing
season temperature for crop
growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
5 • 3/21/11
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Crop suitability is changing
6 • 3/21/11
0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1
Exacerbating the yield gap
From Licker et al, 2010
Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers
(e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap
7 • 3/21/11
In order to meet
global demands,
we will need
60-70%
more food
by 2050.
Food security is at risk
8 • 3/21/11
“Unchecked climate change will result in a
20% increase in malnourished children by
2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.
-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
9 • 3/21/11
Progressive
Adaptation
THE VISION
To adapt farming
systems, we need
to:
• Close the
production gap
by effectively
using
technologies,
practices and
policies
• Increase the
bar: develop new
ways to increase
food production
potential
• Enable policies
and institutions,
from the farm to
national level
10 • 3/21/11
A heavy reliance on models
• For a 2030 world, difficult to do work
without the aid of models
• Starts with the Global Climate Models…
• Through to agricultural impacts models
11 • 3/21/11
And models need data…
• On climate
• Weather
• Crop distribution
• Crop productivity
• Varietal adaptations
• Genetic traits
• Social parameters
• …and the list goes on….
12 • 3/21/11
And that data should be..
• Available (publically)
• Documented and organised
• Or you’ll have another ClimateGate
13 • 3/21/11
A selection of data and informatics
tools being developed in CCAFS
• Agricultural trial data
• GxE analysis with an emphasis on the E
• Setting breeding priorities for a climate
changed world
• Analogues
• Pulling it all together under a knowledge
management umbrella: the AMKN
14 • 3/21/11
>> Multi-site agricultural trial
database(agtrial.org)
20,000+
maize trials
in 123
research
sites
Effect of +1ºC
warming on
yield
Sites with >23ºC
would suffer
even if optimally
managed
More than 20%
loss in sites
with >20ºC,
under drought
Lobell et al. 2011
15 • 3/21/11
• Over 3,000 trials
• 16 crops
• 20 countries
• > 15 international
and national
institutions
New data
>> Multi-site agricultural trial
database(agtrials.org)
16 • 3/21/11
Importance & Potential
• Collating input climate and agricultural
data
• Design of experiments
• Calibration, validation and crop model
runs
• Exploration of adaptation options
– Genetic improvement
– On-farm management practices
• Test them via modelling
• Build “adaptation packages”
• Assess technology transfer options
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
17 • 3/21/11
>> Multi-site agricultural trial
database(agtrial.org)
20,000+
maize trials
in 123
research
sites
Effect of +1ºC
warming on
yield
Sites with >23ºC
would suffer
even if optimally
managed
More than 20%
loss in sites
with >20ºC,
under drought
Lobell et al. 2011
18 • 3/21/11
GxE: OPV vs hybrid
19 • 3/21/11
GxE: duration
20 • 3/21/11
21 • 3/21/11
Current Climatic Suitability
22 • 3/21/11
Current Climatic Constraints
23 • 3/21/11
Future Suitability
24 • 3/21/11
Benefits of breeding options
25 • 3/21/11
The Analogue Concept
• We heavily rely on models to tell us
what the future holds
– GCM/RCM projections
– Crop models, household models, farming
system models
• Few take into account human adaptive
capacity, and social and cultural factors
that contribute to decision making
26 • 3/21/11
The Analogue Concept
• Analogues: Use spatial variability in
climate as a means of having a real
experiment of what the future holds for a
site
• Where can I find my future projected
conditions, TODAY?
27 • 3/21/11
Karnal (India)
• Rainy season from June to September
28 • 3/21/11
Why we think this an important
approach
• Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange
of knowledge
• Permitting validation of computational
models and trialing of new
technologies/techniques
29 • 3/21/11
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogu
es
30 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
It links farmers’ realities on the
ground with promising scientific
research outputs, to inspire new
ideas and highlight current
challenge.
Why is it useful?
The Climate Change Adaptation
and Mitigation Knowledge
Network platform is a portal for
accessing and sharing
agricultural A&M knowledge.
What CCAFS output?
31 • 3/21/11
AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE
SOME OF THESE
APPROACHES TO LINK
KNOWLEDGE AND DATA
32 • 3/21/11
Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal
- CCAFS site
- 600 mm annual rainfall
- Min. Temp. 14.8°C
- Max. Temp. 39.1°C
- Main crops:
- Millet
- Maize
- Peanuts
- Sorghum
- Sesame
-Climate Change threats:
Erratic Rainfall
-Socio-economic
constraints:
-High poverty level
- Low access to
capital
- No attractive market
Kaffrine, Senegal
(x:-15.54,
y:14.106)
33 • 3/21/11
Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Temperature(ºC)
Precipitation(mm)
Month
Current precipitation Future precipitation Future mean temperature
Current mean temperature Future maximum temperature Current maximum temperature
Future minimum temperature Current minimum temperature
Average Site-specific Changes in Monthly Climate (based on 19 GCM Models A2a) (IPCC, 2007)
Average Climate Change Trends:
- Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm
- Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C
34 • 3/21/11
Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Suitability(%) Current suitability
Suitability change in 2050
Current
suitabilit
y (%)
Suitability
change
(%)
Growing
season
(days)
Temp
min
(°C)
Temp
optimale
min
(°C)
Temp
optimale
max (°C)
Temp
max
(°C)
Precipitation
min (mm)
Precipitatio
n optimale
min (mm)
Precipitation
optimale
max (mm)
Precipitation
max (mm)
Maize 96 -6 215 10 18 33 47 400 600 1200 1800
Millet 100 -13 170 15 20 32 45 200 500 750 1000
Peanut 100 -3 120 10 22 32 45 400 500 1500 4000
Sesame
seed 100 -6 110 10 20 30 40 300 500 1000 1500
Sorghu
m 100 -55 195 8 22 35 40 300 400 600 700
35 • 3/21/11
- Mean of the
dissimilarity index
of 24 GCMs
between the
starting site
Kaffrine, Senegal
with the entire
world
- Climate
parameters:
-Monthly temperature
- Monthly rainfall
- Scenario A1B,
2030
High
climate
similarity
Where can we find a region with similar climatic
conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030?
Climate
similarity
36 • 3/21/11
Tougou, Burkina
Faso Lawra Jirapa,
Ghana
Segou, Mali
Fakara, Niger
0.5
1
1.5
2
0 5 10 15 20 25
Standarddeviation
Value of Mean dissimilarity of 24GCMs
Potential 2030-analogues of Kaffrine, Senegal
CCAFS site with
minimum value of
dissimilarity with the
climate of Kaffrine,
Senegal
= Tougou, Burkina
Faso
Best consistency
between the 24
GCM’s
= Fakara , Niger
The current climate
of Fakara is similar
to the future
projected climate in
Kaffrine
Fakara is the most likely
analogue of Kaffrine
Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites
37 • 3/21/11
- CCAFS site
-500 mm annual rainfall
- Min. Temp. 15.7°C
- Max. Temp. 41.3°C
- Main crops:
- Millet
- Beans
- Leafy vegetables
- Maize
- Sorghum
- Climate Change threats:
Drought
- Socio-economic
constraints:
- Low level of
infrastructure
- Limited access to
market
Fakara, Niger
(x:2.687,
y:13.517)
Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger
38 • 3/21/11
Comparison of current conditions
Current
conditions
Kaffrine, Senegal
Fakara, Niger = Future
condition of Kaffrine
Zone
Transition zone from the
Sahelien towards the Sudan
Savannah zone
Within the Sahel
Altitude 15 m 225 m
Annual
rainfall
average
600 mm 500 mm
Minimum
Temperature
14.8 °C 15.7 °C
Maximum
Temperature
39.1 °C 41.3 °C
Main crops
Millet
Maize
Peanuts
Sorghum
Sesame
Millet
Beans
Leafy vegetables
Maize
Sorghum
Length of
Growing
period
130 days 95 days
Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soil
Soil FAO
Class
Ferric Luvisols Luvic Arenosols
Socio-
economic
constraints
High poverty level
Low access to capital
No attractive market
Low level of infrastructure
Limited access to market
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Temperature(ºC)
Precipitation(mm)
Month
Kaffrine, Senegal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Temperature(ºC)
Precipitation(mm)
Month
Fakara, Niger
39 • 3/21/11
Kaffrine,
Senegal
Fakara,
Niger
Millet
Maize
Peanuts
Sorghum
Sesame
Millet
Beans
Leafy
vegetables
Maize
Sorghum
Comparison of main crops
40 • 3/21/11
Agtrial database - Application
Kontela, Mali is another potential
analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal
The sorghum yield data in Kontela,
Mali could help us to know the future
sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.
Sorghum yield data
Sorghum
Variety
K (kg/ha)
N
(kg/ha)
P (kg/ha)
Lime
(kg/ha)
Manure (kg/ha)
Grain yield
(t/ha)
CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68
CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10
CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55
CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33
CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54
CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08
Yield data available in the Agtrials
database:
http://www.agtrials.org:85/
41 • 3/21/11
Millet Yield data
Variety name Grain Yield (t/ha)
Nyamkombo 0.87
Okashana-2 1.09
PMV-2 0.78
PMV-3 0.86
SDMV89003 0.88
SDMV89007 0.82
SDMV90031 1.16
SDMV91018 0.91
SDMV92033 0.75
SDMV92038 0.82
SDMV95032 1.03
SDMV95033 0.93
SDMV95045 1.13
SDMV96075 0.89
SDMV97007 0.87
SDMV97011 0.87
TSPM91018 0.69
SDMV89005 0.90
SDMV92035 0.51
SDMV92037 1.01
SDMV95009 0.77
SDMV95014 0.68
SDMV95025 0.73
ZPMV92005 0.50
ZPMV94001 0.60
Agtrial database - Application
Senegal
Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential
analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal
Yield data available in the Agtrial database:
http://www.agtrials.org:85/
The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzania
could help us to know the future millet yield
in Kaffrine, Senegal.
42 • 3/21/11
stay in touch
www.ccafs.cgiar.org
sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins
follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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GRM 2011: KEYNOTE ADDRESS-3 --The Importance of Agricultural Data and Informatics for Climate Change Adaptation

  • 1. 1 • 3/21/11 The Importance of Agricultural Data and Informatics for Climate Change Adaptation Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Glenn Hyman, Jacob van Etten CCAFS
  • 3. 3 • 3/21/11 The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
  • 4. 4 • 3/21/11 Historical impacts on food security % Yield impact for wheat Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011)
  • 5. 5 • 3/21/11 Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing
  • 6. 6 • 3/21/11 0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1 Exacerbating the yield gap From Licker et al, 2010 Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap
  • 7. 7 • 3/21/11 In order to meet global demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050. Food security is at risk
  • 8. 8 • 3/21/11 “Unchecked climate change will result in a 20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario. -Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
  • 9. 9 • 3/21/11 Progressive Adaptation THE VISION To adapt farming systems, we need to: • Close the production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies • Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential • Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
  • 10. 10 • 3/21/11 A heavy reliance on models • For a 2030 world, difficult to do work without the aid of models • Starts with the Global Climate Models… • Through to agricultural impacts models
  • 11. 11 • 3/21/11 And models need data… • On climate • Weather • Crop distribution • Crop productivity • Varietal adaptations • Genetic traits • Social parameters • …and the list goes on….
  • 12. 12 • 3/21/11 And that data should be.. • Available (publically) • Documented and organised • Or you’ll have another ClimateGate
  • 13. 13 • 3/21/11 A selection of data and informatics tools being developed in CCAFS • Agricultural trial data • GxE analysis with an emphasis on the E • Setting breeding priorities for a climate changed world • Analogues • Pulling it all together under a knowledge management umbrella: the AMKN
  • 14. 14 • 3/21/11 >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org) 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011
  • 15. 15 • 3/21/11 • Over 3,000 trials • 16 crops • 20 countries • > 15 international and national institutions New data >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org)
  • 16. 16 • 3/21/11 Importance & Potential • Collating input climate and agricultural data • Design of experiments • Calibration, validation and crop model runs • Exploration of adaptation options – Genetic improvement – On-farm management practices • Test them via modelling • Build “adaptation packages” • Assess technology transfer options (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  • 17. 17 • 3/21/11 >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org) 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011
  • 18. 18 • 3/21/11 GxE: OPV vs hybrid
  • 21. 21 • 3/21/11 Current Climatic Suitability
  • 22. 22 • 3/21/11 Current Climatic Constraints
  • 23. 23 • 3/21/11 Future Suitability
  • 24. 24 • 3/21/11 Benefits of breeding options
  • 25. 25 • 3/21/11 The Analogue Concept • We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds – GCM/RCM projections – Crop models, household models, farming system models • Few take into account human adaptive capacity, and social and cultural factors that contribute to decision making
  • 26. 26 • 3/21/11 The Analogue Concept • Analogues: Use spatial variability in climate as a means of having a real experiment of what the future holds for a site • Where can I find my future projected conditions, TODAY?
  • 27. 27 • 3/21/11 Karnal (India) • Rainy season from June to September
  • 28. 28 • 3/21/11 Why we think this an important approach • Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange of knowledge • Permitting validation of computational models and trialing of new technologies/techniques
  • 30. 30 • 3/21/11 Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. What CCAFS output?
  • 31. 31 • 3/21/11 AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE SOME OF THESE APPROACHES TO LINK KNOWLEDGE AND DATA
  • 32. 32 • 3/21/11 Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal - CCAFS site - 600 mm annual rainfall - Min. Temp. 14.8°C - Max. Temp. 39.1°C - Main crops: - Millet - Maize - Peanuts - Sorghum - Sesame -Climate Change threats: Erratic Rainfall -Socio-economic constraints: -High poverty level - Low access to capital - No attractive market Kaffrine, Senegal (x:-15.54, y:14.106)
  • 33. 33 • 3/21/11 Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 50 100 150 200 250 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Temperature(ºC) Precipitation(mm) Month Current precipitation Future precipitation Future mean temperature Current mean temperature Future maximum temperature Current maximum temperature Future minimum temperature Current minimum temperature Average Site-specific Changes in Monthly Climate (based on 19 GCM Models A2a) (IPCC, 2007) Average Climate Change Trends: - Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm - Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C
  • 34. 34 • 3/21/11 Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Suitability(%) Current suitability Suitability change in 2050 Current suitabilit y (%) Suitability change (%) Growing season (days) Temp min (°C) Temp optimale min (°C) Temp optimale max (°C) Temp max (°C) Precipitation min (mm) Precipitatio n optimale min (mm) Precipitation optimale max (mm) Precipitation max (mm) Maize 96 -6 215 10 18 33 47 400 600 1200 1800 Millet 100 -13 170 15 20 32 45 200 500 750 1000 Peanut 100 -3 120 10 22 32 45 400 500 1500 4000 Sesame seed 100 -6 110 10 20 30 40 300 500 1000 1500 Sorghu m 100 -55 195 8 22 35 40 300 400 600 700
  • 35. 35 • 3/21/11 - Mean of the dissimilarity index of 24 GCMs between the starting site Kaffrine, Senegal with the entire world - Climate parameters: -Monthly temperature - Monthly rainfall - Scenario A1B, 2030 High climate similarity Where can we find a region with similar climatic conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030? Climate similarity
  • 36. 36 • 3/21/11 Tougou, Burkina Faso Lawra Jirapa, Ghana Segou, Mali Fakara, Niger 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 Standarddeviation Value of Mean dissimilarity of 24GCMs Potential 2030-analogues of Kaffrine, Senegal CCAFS site with minimum value of dissimilarity with the climate of Kaffrine, Senegal = Tougou, Burkina Faso Best consistency between the 24 GCM’s = Fakara , Niger The current climate of Fakara is similar to the future projected climate in Kaffrine Fakara is the most likely analogue of Kaffrine Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites
  • 37. 37 • 3/21/11 - CCAFS site -500 mm annual rainfall - Min. Temp. 15.7°C - Max. Temp. 41.3°C - Main crops: - Millet - Beans - Leafy vegetables - Maize - Sorghum - Climate Change threats: Drought - Socio-economic constraints: - Low level of infrastructure - Limited access to market Fakara, Niger (x:2.687, y:13.517) Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger
  • 38. 38 • 3/21/11 Comparison of current conditions Current conditions Kaffrine, Senegal Fakara, Niger = Future condition of Kaffrine Zone Transition zone from the Sahelien towards the Sudan Savannah zone Within the Sahel Altitude 15 m 225 m Annual rainfall average 600 mm 500 mm Minimum Temperature 14.8 °C 15.7 °C Maximum Temperature 39.1 °C 41.3 °C Main crops Millet Maize Peanuts Sorghum Sesame Millet Beans Leafy vegetables Maize Sorghum Length of Growing period 130 days 95 days Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soil Soil FAO Class Ferric Luvisols Luvic Arenosols Socio- economic constraints High poverty level Low access to capital No attractive market Low level of infrastructure Limited access to market 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Temperature(ºC) Precipitation(mm) Month Kaffrine, Senegal 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Temperature(ºC) Precipitation(mm) Month Fakara, Niger
  • 40. 40 • 3/21/11 Agtrial database - Application Kontela, Mali is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal. Sorghum yield data Sorghum Variety K (kg/ha) N (kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield (t/ha) CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68 CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55 CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33 CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54 CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08 Yield data available in the Agtrials database: http://www.agtrials.org:85/
  • 41. 41 • 3/21/11 Millet Yield data Variety name Grain Yield (t/ha) Nyamkombo 0.87 Okashana-2 1.09 PMV-2 0.78 PMV-3 0.86 SDMV89003 0.88 SDMV89007 0.82 SDMV90031 1.16 SDMV91018 0.91 SDMV92033 0.75 SDMV92038 0.82 SDMV95032 1.03 SDMV95033 0.93 SDMV95045 1.13 SDMV96075 0.89 SDMV97007 0.87 SDMV97011 0.87 TSPM91018 0.69 SDMV89005 0.90 SDMV92035 0.51 SDMV92037 1.01 SDMV95009 0.77 SDMV95014 0.68 SDMV95025 0.73 ZPMV92005 0.50 ZPMV94001 0.60 Agtrial database - Application Senegal Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal Yield data available in the Agtrial database: http://www.agtrials.org:85/ The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzania could help us to know the future millet yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.
  • 42. 42 • 3/21/11 stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate