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Professor Ian Williams
     Director of Education and Deputy Head of the School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton




     Future of Waste




84
The Global Challenge


Global waste production is predicted by some to double over the next twenty years. Much of this will be due            Global waste
to increased urbanisation and greater waste generation per capita as emerging economies grow. While some               production is
                                                                                                                       predicted by
regions are aiming at creating zero waste ecosystems, others are yet to truly recognise the scale of the               some to double
challenge we face.                                                                                                     over the next
                                                                                                                       twenty years.
                                                                                                                       Much of this
Waste results in many problems. It smells bad, looks       Enabling the appropriate treatment of hazardous
                                                                                                                       will be due to
bad and attracts vermin; it releases harmful chemicals     wastes (including toxic, radioactive, clinical and          increased
into the soil and water when dumped and into the air       biohazard materials), particularly close to or in densely   urbanisation and
when burned; around 4% of our GHG emissions are                                                                        greater waste
                                                           populated, urban areas is a major issue. In particular,
                                                                                                                       generation
currently from waste decomposition; and no one has         we will need to address the unethical shipping of           per capita as
really yet come up with a solution for how to dispose of   hazardous wastes to developing countries and the            emerging
some of the most toxic nuclear and industrial waste in     subsequent adverse health effects suffered by those         economies grow.
a sustainable manner.                                      who handle and treat these wastes.

On average in Europe, each of us produces over 500kg       As economic growth has traditionally led to more waste,
of domestic waste each year. On top of this we             to prevent the future doubling in global waste predicted
generate huge quantities of construction debris,           by some, we need to understand what are the
industrial effluent, mine tailings, sewage residue and     projected increases in waste volumes in emerging
agricultural waste. Rich countries spend some $120         nations? What will be the associated attitudes towards
billion a year disposing of their municipal waste alone    waste management and what infrastructure and service
and another $150 billion on industrial waste.              provision needs to be put in place and where? We must
                                                           devise sustainable and practical approaches to deal
In the next decade, can we develop a practical and
                                                           with the (inevitable) increasing volumes of waste from
achievable global strategy for sustainable resource use?
                                                           ‘emerging nations’, their attitudes towards and ability
Making waste prevention the norm in a global society
                                                           to manage their waste responsibly.
dominated by consumerism will demand the creation of
a zero waste society - but can we actually achieve zero    Last, but certainly not least, we need to change all
landfill and move towards this goal? It will mean          individual behaviours and attitudes and get consumers
simultaneously      developing      the     appropriate    and organisations to buy products made from recycled
infrastructure, service provision and approaches to        materials and/or sustainable sources: Easier in some
facilitate behaviour change in multiple particular         countries than in others.
environments. It will also require us to genuinely
decouple economic growth and waste generation on a
global scale.




                                                                                                   Future of Waste                    85
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




                         Options and Possibilities

       We have the       Over the next decade, the increasing global population and the increasing economic growth of many emerging
            options of   nations will create more waste. As well as putting a huge strain on resources such as fresh water and energy,
   accelerating the
   development of
                         another billion or so people added to the planet in the next ten years will certainly demand more and so create
        Zero Waste       more waste. This will include more food and energy waste; more household waste; increased electronic
            concepts,    wastes facilitated by lower prices, new products and more choice; and more hazardous waste from industry
    creating better
                         generally and an increase in nuclear energy specifically. To try and counteract this we will see less packaging
         sustainable
technologies, and        waste due to regulation and more biodegradable packaging; more pressure to reduce the environmental
  facilitating better    impacts from waste; increased complexity in the waste stream and an increase in concerns regarding the
      geographical       health effects of waste treatment. These are all visible trends today that will continue going forward.
   spread of these
 technologies, but
           this needs    What is less certain are a number of political,                 We have the options of accelerating the development of
         investment.     environmental, global economic and technological                Zero Waste concepts, creating better sustainable
                         factors. Political motivation and resource policy directions    technologies, and facilitating better geographical
                         are very unpredictable, especially after a downturn where       spread of these technologies, but this needs
                         the economics of waste recycling have become less               investment. This is investment in appropriate
                         viable than before. In addition, we don’t yet understand        infrastructures, service provision and new approaches
                         the impacts that global warming will have on                    to   facilitate   behaviour   change   in   particular
                         governmental decisions that impact waste management             environments. We also have the option of creating new
                         - what is the connection between waste generation /             accredited global standards for management, treatment
                         treatment and climate change? Can some waste                    and disposal of waste, but this needs cooperation
                         materials be used to generate sustainable energy in             between companies and countries. There are many
                         order to address future energy needs? The impact and            things we could do to fundamentally change direction
                         implications of increased resource use on society, the          and create less waste, but some question what we will
                         economy and the environment are likely to be global and         actually do.
                         significant but the details are not yet fully clear. Although
                         some point to examples such as Switzerland where there
                         are currently high levels of waste recycling occurring due
                         to local conditions, it is not certain that this will be
                         sustained. At the same time, whether, or to what extent,
                         waste quantities continue to rise in the developed world
                         is not certain. Also, we don’t yet know how rapid will be
                         the uptake of sustainable and smart technologies, such
                         as nano-materials, which will in theory result in less
                         waste. Despite an increase in hazard, high use of rare
                         metals in IT hardware such as phones and PCs will
                         increase but waste quantities may reduce.




86                       Future of Waste
Proposed Way Forward


By 2020, I believe that we can make a significant impact on the waste problem by taking some clear steps.               Can we develop
And I would aim high: we need major changes.                                                                            mass low cost
                                                                                                                        sustainable
                                                                                                                        technologies on
First off is the development of practical integrated        incentives and / or legislation. But can we develop         a global scale?
sustainable waste management solutions that are             mass low cost sustainable technologies on a global
clearly aimed at the creation of a zero waste society.      scale? This will require substantial knowledge transfer.
This will mean the simultaneous development of the          Better technologies offer money-making opportunities
infrastructure, service provision and behavior change to    and, in themselves, require less change to current
enable the core elements to be aligned. This won’t be       practice than the infrastructure and behavior pathway.
politically attractive but will be necessary. Within all    However, although zero waste strategies will be a
environments we need to develop truly sustainable           popular concept, many in business and industry will
waste practices, policies and strategies. This will mean    resist it just as unleaded petrol was initially rejected.
moving waste management in line with a reduced              Therefore the technology route should not be backed in
carbon economy; developing appropriate and low              isolation - we need the technologies and the integrated
environmental impact collection systems for small re-       waste management solutions together.
useable/recyclable items (WEEE); and adherence to
                                                            While these are the two main issues, there are also a
approaches that satisfy regional self-sufficiency,
                                                            number of additional actions that will have a quick,
proximity principle, sustainability appraisals, etc. This
                                                            short-term     impact.   These       include   increased
includes sustainable management of minerals and
                                                            enforcement,     education     and      awareness     for
aggregates; prevention of food waste, and facilitating
                                                            organisations and businesses in how to manage their
resource recovery from wastes, as well as addressing
                                                            waste, especially from those not conflicted by
imminent resource depletion of key materials such as
                                                            commercial gain; expansion of alternate weekly
the rare metals used in IT hardware.
                                                            collection systems in developed countries (e.g.
Second is the development of mass low-cost                  recyclables weekly, residuals fortnightly); further
sustainable technologies for waste treatment /              legislation and / or economic disincentives on excessive
transformation and pollution prevention on a global         packaging; and higher involvement of both big business
scale. We need to develop technologies and systems          and the third sector in re-use and recycling. We also
for the global prevention of pollution from the handling    need to accelerate the willingness of individuals and
and treatment of wastes, especially waste waters and        organizations to buy products made from recycled
industrial effluents. This will require concepts such as    materials and / or sustainable sources.
green   chemistry    and    engineering    to   become
mainstream rather than niche using appropriate




                                                                                                     Future of Waste                  87
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




                       Impacts and Implications

         The pace at   There will be several direct consequences from seeking a credible move towards the zero waste society:
      which the rich
       world churns
     out rubbish has   • Economically, increased costs are inevitable:                being produced and were concentrating on better use.
      been slowing.      Changes in feedstock for manufacturing, for                  But lately that assumption has been challenged. For
                         example, will probably increase costs initially until the    one thing, the pace at which the rich world churns out
                         market adjusts and the use of recycled materials             rubbish has been slowing. Between 1980 and 2000
                         becomes the norm. However given the long-term                the amount of waste produced by the OECD countries
                         impacts of not taking this route, most forward               increased by an average of 2.5% a year. Between
                         thinking organisations should see the benefit and the        2000 and 2005 the average growth rate slowed to
                         return that will be achieved on the necessary                0.9%. That was just ahead of the rate of population
                         investments.                                                 growth, but well behind the rate of economic growth.
                                                                                      The OECD describes this as “a rather strong relative
                       • Socially, both to enable a zero waste pathway and as
                                                                                      decoupling of municipal waste generation from
                         a result of it, there will be significantly greater public
                                                                                      economic growth”
                         awareness / knowledge of both waste management
                         issues and also of the adverse health / environmental        Reducing the amount of waste being produced makes
                         consequences of poor environmental management.               a great deal of sense. Some are trying to persuade
                         However without a fundamental, behaviour change              consumers to throw away less. One tactic is to make
                         towards a more environmentally sustainable way of            households pay by volume for the rubbish they
                         life, any economic investments stand less chance of          generate, rather than through a flat fee or through local
                         having impact.                                               taxes. Many places in Europe, America and Asia have

                       • Technologically, we will see an increased use of             adopted “pay-as-you-throw” schemes.

                         “smart products” to track, monitor and manage                Whether through such changes in consumer
                         waste, as well as new nanotechnologies and low               behaviour, increased financial investment or the
                         carbon technologies that create less waste.                  development of new technology and policy, the world
                         Increased investment, to ensure all that waste               is in desperate need of a shift towards the zero waste
                         streams can be processed, will also eventually drive         society. Such a shift will not only benefit us by
                         a move towards mass low cost sustainable                     addressing the growing waste challenge, but will also
                         technologies.                                                have a positive impact on how we potentially generate
                       Until recently most people in the waste industry had           our energy, how we grow and use our food and how
                       assumed that it was impossible to reduce the amount            we manage our water supplies.




88                     Future of Waste
The world is in
desperate need
of a shift towards
the zero waste
society.




                89

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Future Agenda Future Of Waste

  • 1. Professor Ian Williams Director of Education and Deputy Head of the School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton Future of Waste 84
  • 2. The Global Challenge Global waste production is predicted by some to double over the next twenty years. Much of this will be due Global waste to increased urbanisation and greater waste generation per capita as emerging economies grow. While some production is predicted by regions are aiming at creating zero waste ecosystems, others are yet to truly recognise the scale of the some to double challenge we face. over the next twenty years. Much of this Waste results in many problems. It smells bad, looks Enabling the appropriate treatment of hazardous will be due to bad and attracts vermin; it releases harmful chemicals wastes (including toxic, radioactive, clinical and increased into the soil and water when dumped and into the air biohazard materials), particularly close to or in densely urbanisation and when burned; around 4% of our GHG emissions are greater waste populated, urban areas is a major issue. In particular, generation currently from waste decomposition; and no one has we will need to address the unethical shipping of per capita as really yet come up with a solution for how to dispose of hazardous wastes to developing countries and the emerging some of the most toxic nuclear and industrial waste in subsequent adverse health effects suffered by those economies grow. a sustainable manner. who handle and treat these wastes. On average in Europe, each of us produces over 500kg As economic growth has traditionally led to more waste, of domestic waste each year. On top of this we to prevent the future doubling in global waste predicted generate huge quantities of construction debris, by some, we need to understand what are the industrial effluent, mine tailings, sewage residue and projected increases in waste volumes in emerging agricultural waste. Rich countries spend some $120 nations? What will be the associated attitudes towards billion a year disposing of their municipal waste alone waste management and what infrastructure and service and another $150 billion on industrial waste. provision needs to be put in place and where? We must devise sustainable and practical approaches to deal In the next decade, can we develop a practical and with the (inevitable) increasing volumes of waste from achievable global strategy for sustainable resource use? ‘emerging nations’, their attitudes towards and ability Making waste prevention the norm in a global society to manage their waste responsibly. dominated by consumerism will demand the creation of a zero waste society - but can we actually achieve zero Last, but certainly not least, we need to change all landfill and move towards this goal? It will mean individual behaviours and attitudes and get consumers simultaneously developing the appropriate and organisations to buy products made from recycled infrastructure, service provision and approaches to materials and/or sustainable sources: Easier in some facilitate behaviour change in multiple particular countries than in others. environments. It will also require us to genuinely decouple economic growth and waste generation on a global scale. Future of Waste 85
  • 3. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities We have the Over the next decade, the increasing global population and the increasing economic growth of many emerging options of nations will create more waste. As well as putting a huge strain on resources such as fresh water and energy, accelerating the development of another billion or so people added to the planet in the next ten years will certainly demand more and so create Zero Waste more waste. This will include more food and energy waste; more household waste; increased electronic concepts, wastes facilitated by lower prices, new products and more choice; and more hazardous waste from industry creating better generally and an increase in nuclear energy specifically. To try and counteract this we will see less packaging sustainable technologies, and waste due to regulation and more biodegradable packaging; more pressure to reduce the environmental facilitating better impacts from waste; increased complexity in the waste stream and an increase in concerns regarding the geographical health effects of waste treatment. These are all visible trends today that will continue going forward. spread of these technologies, but this needs What is less certain are a number of political, We have the options of accelerating the development of investment. environmental, global economic and technological Zero Waste concepts, creating better sustainable factors. Political motivation and resource policy directions technologies, and facilitating better geographical are very unpredictable, especially after a downturn where spread of these technologies, but this needs the economics of waste recycling have become less investment. This is investment in appropriate viable than before. In addition, we don’t yet understand infrastructures, service provision and new approaches the impacts that global warming will have on to facilitate behaviour change in particular governmental decisions that impact waste management environments. We also have the option of creating new - what is the connection between waste generation / accredited global standards for management, treatment treatment and climate change? Can some waste and disposal of waste, but this needs cooperation materials be used to generate sustainable energy in between companies and countries. There are many order to address future energy needs? The impact and things we could do to fundamentally change direction implications of increased resource use on society, the and create less waste, but some question what we will economy and the environment are likely to be global and actually do. significant but the details are not yet fully clear. Although some point to examples such as Switzerland where there are currently high levels of waste recycling occurring due to local conditions, it is not certain that this will be sustained. At the same time, whether, or to what extent, waste quantities continue to rise in the developed world is not certain. Also, we don’t yet know how rapid will be the uptake of sustainable and smart technologies, such as nano-materials, which will in theory result in less waste. Despite an increase in hazard, high use of rare metals in IT hardware such as phones and PCs will increase but waste quantities may reduce. 86 Future of Waste
  • 4. Proposed Way Forward By 2020, I believe that we can make a significant impact on the waste problem by taking some clear steps. Can we develop And I would aim high: we need major changes. mass low cost sustainable technologies on First off is the development of practical integrated incentives and / or legislation. But can we develop a global scale? sustainable waste management solutions that are mass low cost sustainable technologies on a global clearly aimed at the creation of a zero waste society. scale? This will require substantial knowledge transfer. This will mean the simultaneous development of the Better technologies offer money-making opportunities infrastructure, service provision and behavior change to and, in themselves, require less change to current enable the core elements to be aligned. This won’t be practice than the infrastructure and behavior pathway. politically attractive but will be necessary. Within all However, although zero waste strategies will be a environments we need to develop truly sustainable popular concept, many in business and industry will waste practices, policies and strategies. This will mean resist it just as unleaded petrol was initially rejected. moving waste management in line with a reduced Therefore the technology route should not be backed in carbon economy; developing appropriate and low isolation - we need the technologies and the integrated environmental impact collection systems for small re- waste management solutions together. useable/recyclable items (WEEE); and adherence to While these are the two main issues, there are also a approaches that satisfy regional self-sufficiency, number of additional actions that will have a quick, proximity principle, sustainability appraisals, etc. This short-term impact. These include increased includes sustainable management of minerals and enforcement, education and awareness for aggregates; prevention of food waste, and facilitating organisations and businesses in how to manage their resource recovery from wastes, as well as addressing waste, especially from those not conflicted by imminent resource depletion of key materials such as commercial gain; expansion of alternate weekly the rare metals used in IT hardware. collection systems in developed countries (e.g. Second is the development of mass low-cost recyclables weekly, residuals fortnightly); further sustainable technologies for waste treatment / legislation and / or economic disincentives on excessive transformation and pollution prevention on a global packaging; and higher involvement of both big business scale. We need to develop technologies and systems and the third sector in re-use and recycling. We also for the global prevention of pollution from the handling need to accelerate the willingness of individuals and and treatment of wastes, especially waste waters and organizations to buy products made from recycled industrial effluents. This will require concepts such as materials and / or sustainable sources. green chemistry and engineering to become mainstream rather than niche using appropriate Future of Waste 87
  • 5. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications The pace at There will be several direct consequences from seeking a credible move towards the zero waste society: which the rich world churns out rubbish has • Economically, increased costs are inevitable: being produced and were concentrating on better use. been slowing. Changes in feedstock for manufacturing, for But lately that assumption has been challenged. For example, will probably increase costs initially until the one thing, the pace at which the rich world churns out market adjusts and the use of recycled materials rubbish has been slowing. Between 1980 and 2000 becomes the norm. However given the long-term the amount of waste produced by the OECD countries impacts of not taking this route, most forward increased by an average of 2.5% a year. Between thinking organisations should see the benefit and the 2000 and 2005 the average growth rate slowed to return that will be achieved on the necessary 0.9%. That was just ahead of the rate of population investments. growth, but well behind the rate of economic growth. The OECD describes this as “a rather strong relative • Socially, both to enable a zero waste pathway and as decoupling of municipal waste generation from a result of it, there will be significantly greater public economic growth” awareness / knowledge of both waste management issues and also of the adverse health / environmental Reducing the amount of waste being produced makes consequences of poor environmental management. a great deal of sense. Some are trying to persuade However without a fundamental, behaviour change consumers to throw away less. One tactic is to make towards a more environmentally sustainable way of households pay by volume for the rubbish they life, any economic investments stand less chance of generate, rather than through a flat fee or through local having impact. taxes. Many places in Europe, America and Asia have • Technologically, we will see an increased use of adopted “pay-as-you-throw” schemes. “smart products” to track, monitor and manage Whether through such changes in consumer waste, as well as new nanotechnologies and low behaviour, increased financial investment or the carbon technologies that create less waste. development of new technology and policy, the world Increased investment, to ensure all that waste is in desperate need of a shift towards the zero waste streams can be processed, will also eventually drive society. Such a shift will not only benefit us by a move towards mass low cost sustainable addressing the growing waste challenge, but will also technologies. have a positive impact on how we potentially generate Until recently most people in the waste industry had our energy, how we grow and use our food and how assumed that it was impossible to reduce the amount we manage our water supplies. 88 Future of Waste
  • 6. The world is in desperate need of a shift towards the zero waste society. 89