My Master's students used ideas from my (Jeff Funk) forthcoming book (Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries) to analyze when 3D LCD TVs might emerge. See my other slides for details on concepts, methodology, and other new industries.

1. Forecasting the Emergence of
Technological Discontinuities:
The Case of Three Dimensional Liquid
Crystal Display Televisions
Ng Pei Sin
G0903130@nus.edu.sg
Supervisor: Dr Jeffrey Lee FUNK
May 2011

2. Conventional Wisdom
∗ Advances in Science Lead to Emergence of Technological Discontinuities
∗ Henderson and Clark, 1990; Anderson and Tushman, 1990; Tushman and
Anderson, 1986
∗ Alternative Explanation
∗ In addition to advances in science, complementary technologies are needed
(Rosenberg, 1982; 1994)
∗ For example, improvements in magnetic recording density for audio and video
recording systems (Funk, 2009) and ICs for computers (Funk, 2009) were needed
What about three dimensional liquid crystal display (LCD) televisions? This
presentation will show how improvements in LCDs have made the science of 3D
television possible

3. 2D Television to 3D Displays
Milestones:
• 1900s: Black & White CRT Improvement of display
• 1950s: Color Display
• 2000s: Larger, slimmer High-definition Liquid ∗Increased Frame-Rate
Crystal Displays (LCD)
• 2010s: 3D HD LCD ∗Increased panel pixel count and density
3D HD per area
High
Definition, ∗Ease of application of optical filter on flat
Larger Less space
display panels
Color
motion
images Ease of producing 3D Contents
Motion
Images ∗Standardization and Digitalization of 3D
(Black &
White) format
∗improved GPU performance and software
algorithm
∗Larger cheaper digital storage
Improved 3D Contents delivery
∗Digital Television Broadcast
∗Internet Broadband Bandwidth Growth
Source: “Future TV's Direction of Evolution”, Sue Chung,
Displaybank, July 2009, http://www.displaybank.com
∗Increased popularity of Internet Video

4. LCD replaces CRT
∗ Improvement in liquid crystal enable its use in display panels
∗ LCDs (liquid crystal displays) are now the dominant form of television
Total display shipped by Display Area. Source: “Flat Panel Display Materials - Trends and Forecasts 2009”, Fuji Chimera Research Institute, InterLingua, 2008

5. Improvement of Displays
∗ Increased Color Spectrum & Color graduation
∗ An important aspect of display performance, trend towards Natural color realism
∗ Implies that 3D implementation should be color neutral, and does not cause color
distortion of images.
∗ Increased Display Size and Flat Panel advantages
∗ Wider coverage of viewing area; better viewing immersion
∗ Adoption of 16:9 wide screen format used in cinema; simplification of display format
∗ Flat panel of LCD facilitate the use of high-precision optical filters
∗ Larger yet Cheaper Displays
∗ Nishimura’s Law and Odawara’s Law
indicates that increasing size of
substrate used in panels results in
reduction in cost of making each panel
∗ Indicates increasing returns to scale of
LCD production, resulting in cheaper,
larger panels.
Reducing ASP$ of Flat Panel TV

6. Increased Frame-Rate
300
Display Frame-Rate
250
Frame per seconds (Hz)
200
120Hz - Minimum screen frame-rate CRT
150 for ‘flicker-free’ Time-sequential 3D LCD
100 OLED/Plasma
50
0
1970s 1995 2008 2010
∗ Increased frame-rate of content approaches Critical Flicker Fusion point (where higher frame
rate has no perceived effect) – 60Hz.
∗ Increase frame rate gives smoother, flicker-free motion, especially in high-action videos
∗ Increased Frame-rate of Display
∗ Reaches 120Hz; surpasses critical flicker fusion point
∗ Surplus enables implementation of Time-sequential 3D without compromising improved
frame rate of content
∗ Improved LCD frame-rate due to improvement in Liquid Crystal structure, reduced cell-gap,
and improved methods to shorten liquid crystal response time

7. Increased Panel Pixel-Count and
density
∗ Improved Panel Pixel count gives sharper
images and finer image details
∗ Standard-Definition (0.3 million pixel per
frame), to
∗ High-Definition (2.1 million pixel per frame)
∗ emerging QFHD (Qual Full High Definition -
8.3 million pixel per frame)
∗ Pixel density in mobile display improved
from 96 pixel-per-inch (ppi) in 2002 to 192
ppi in 2010
∗Kitihara’s Law on development of flat panel displays, pixel count increase by four-times
every 3 years
∗Increased pixel count facilitates implementation of auto-stereoscopic displays
Source: US Display Consortium (USDC), http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html

8. Standardization and Digitization
of Video Format
∗ Standardization and digitalization ease
handling, storing and presentation of 3D films
∗ Standardization of format reduces complexity
and cost of having to produce 3D contents for
multiple competing formats, improving
economy of scale of producing 3D contents
∗ Digital 3D format standardize on MPEG-4 video
compression by extending MPEG-4
compression with Multiview Video Coding
(MVC) encoding
∗ Improvement in MPEG-4 video compression
efficiency achieve only 50% increase in
compressed bitrate for twice the amount of “Historical Progression of Media”, From: Three-Dimensional Television: Capture,
uncompressed stereoscopic contents transmission, Display. By Haldun M. Ozaktas, Levent Onural

9. Improved ease of producing
contents in 3D
∗ Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables:
∗ Acceleration of MPEG4 video compression (more computational demanding)
∗ Rendering of more realistic computer animation animated with 3D modeling technique
(enables use of more polygon count and motion control points)
∗ Rendering of 3D models for stereoscopic video for 3D displays (stereoscopic output
requires twice the computation)
∗ Enable realistic stereoscopic computer animation good enough for cinema screens
presentation, increasing contents in 3D
∗ Improved algorithm enables
rendering of existing 3D models for
3D displays with little or no
modification, increasing pool of 3D
contents and 3D video games
∗ More sources of 3D content: 3D Films
(live-action), 3D computer-animation,
3D Video Games
∗ Improved software algorithm enables
2D contents to be converted to 3D,
adding to the pool of 3D contents http://www.behardware.com/articles/659-1/nvidia-cuda-preview.html
“NVIDIA® TESLA® GPU COMPUTING”, Nvidia, 2010, http://www.nvidia.com/docs/IO/43395/tesla-brochure-12-lr.pdf

10. Larger Cheaper Digital Storage
∗ Video streams, even after compression, takes
up significant storage space:
∗ DVD Disc (MPEG-2): ~2 hours (720i) at
4Gigabytes
∗ Blue-ray (MPEG-4): 9 hours of HD video on
a 50GB disc
∗ Cheaper, high-density digital storage brings
down cost of recording and storage of video
∗ Larger storage capacity permits higher video
encoding bitrate, resulting in higher quality
images
∗ Improvement in video compression efficiency,
faster video processor, and larger storage
space facilitate handling and processing of
high bitrate 3D HD content
∗ Leverage on existing digital format used by
High-Definition Video ease delivery of 3D
contents
Source: http://www.videophill.com

11. Improved Distribution of 3D contents
Digital Broadcast
∗ To support digital HD content, Digital broadcast replaces analogue broadcast:
∗ DVB/T (Europe), ATSC (USA, Canada), ISDB-T (South America), DMB-T/H (China), etc
∗ digital bitrate from 4 to 32Mbps bitrate per TV channel with MPEG-4 video compression
∗ MPEG-4 are “3D ready”, able to carry MPEG-4 MVC 3D encoding
∗ Digital broadcast support carrying of stereoscopic contents
Growth of Internet Bandwidth
∗Internet broadband Bandwidth growth to exceed Digital
Broadcasting
∗According to Nielsen’s Law of Internet Bandwidth, high-
end internet user’s connection speed grows by 50%
annually, or double every 21 months
∗High-quality 3D HD streams average about 40Mbps
∗Internet bandwidth for high-end users should exceed
40Mbps by 2011
∗This enables high-quality 3D-HD streaming application
over internet
∗Increasing popularity of video sharing websites like
YouTube™ enables distribution of digital content via http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakob_Nielsen_(usability_consultant
Internet )#cite_note-1 ,
http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980405.html

12. Impact of Improvements on
Displaying 3D
∗ Stereoscopic techniques:
1. Time-sequential 3D with active 3D glasses
2. Time-sequential 3D with passive 3D glasses
3. Auto-stereoscopic 3D
∗ Fundamental Improvements:
∗ Increased frame-rate enables time-sequential 3D
∗ Increased pixel density enables auto-stereoscopic 3D

13. Time-Sequential 3D
with active 3D Glasses
∗ Performance surplus of display frame-rate
enables time-sequential 3D
∗ Improvement in Liquid Crystal response time
enables:
∗ High frame-rate in LCD displays,
∗ High frame-rate active 3D glasses
∗ Economical: Estimated cost of adding 3D to
LCD display range from 10% to 30% the cost of
panel.
∗ Improved liquid crystal materials and reduced cell-gap shorten LC response-time enables
higher shutter rate in active 3D glasses.
∗ Use of low-voltage, thin-nematic LC structure enables application in battery-power shutter
glasses.

14. Time-sequential 3D with passive eyewear
∗ Liquid crystal Electronic polarized filter added in front
of time-sequential display to polarizes emitted images
∗ Polarized images is filtered by polarized eyewear to
the respective eyes of viewer
∗ Cheaper glasses: Active shutter glasses retails at
US$100 per pair, while “passive” polarize-filter glasses
cost US$10
∗ Cheaper “passive” eyewear as it does not use battery,
or electronic circuitry – only polarized lens
∗ More comfortable as it is smaller and lighter
Source: US patent 7477206, "Enhanced ZScreen modulator techniques", issued January 13, 2009, assigned to RealD

15. Auto-Stereoscopic Displays
∗ Does not require special 3D glasses
∗ Panel pixels are divides into two groups -- one for left-eye
images, another for right-eye images
∗ A filter element is used to focus each pixel into a viewing zone
∗ Due to pixel division, increase pixel-density improves 3D
image resolution
∗ Flat Panel enable use of high-precision optical filters
∗ Flat and thin LCD glass plate allow close placement of lenticular array minimizing
optical distortion
∗ Accurate placement of LCD pixels allow precise alignment of lenticular array, or
parallax barrier
∗ Uniform brightness of each pixel reduces angular variation in brightness
∗ Further, auto-stereoscopy requires multiple pairs of viewing zones to allow some
head movement, requires even more pixels count to maintain image resolution

16. Improved 3D Displays
∗ Improved display performance with increased 3D depth-perception makes better 3D displays
that provide superior content immersion and entertainment value.
∗ Time-sequential 3D displays can be economically implemented by leveraging improved
frame-rate of LCD panels
∗ Further reduction in cost can be achieved with the use of electronic polarized filter and low-
cost polarized 3D glasses
∗ Improvement in pixel-density of pocket-size panels enabled implementation of auto-
stereoscopic 3D displays with acceptable compromise in image resolution.
∗ However, implementation of auto-stereoscopic 3D panels in television requires further
improvement in pixel-density of TV-sized LCD panels.

17. Improved Availability of 3D Contents
∗ Availability of 3D contents directly
affects value of 3D displays to
customers
∗ Availability is improved with increased
3D contents and better content
delivery
∗ Increased 3D contents due to ease of
producing contents in 3D, more
sources of 3D contents (Digital 3D
movies, 3D games)
∗ Delivery of 3D contents is facilitated
by leveraging off advancement made ∗ Increased in 3D movies
with digital HD distribution ∗ In 2010, more than 500 3D PC games titles were
listed on Nvidia’s 3D Vision website.
http://www.nvidia.com/object/3d-vision-3d-
games.html

18. Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D
Displays
Television-Size displays:
∗Inconvenience of 3D Glasses poses as near-term
hindrance
∗3D benefits for content immersion varies with
type of contents
∗Inconvenience of eyewear causes user to be
more selective of 3D contents
∗Contents that benefits from 3D most like to
offset cost of 3D production, causing certain
types of content to be produced, thus limiting
availability of 3D contents
∗Auto-stereoscopic 3D displays will broaden
consumer preference for 3D contents
∗Further improvement of 3D displays is required
to make 3D more convenient and comfortable to
use
Reference: “Managing a Dispersed Product Development Process”, Ely Dahan and John R. Hauser, October 2000,

19. Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D
Displays
Pocket-Size displays:
∗Improved pixel-density of portable display enables auto-stereoscopy in mobile displays
∗Portable auto-stereoscopic displays is likely to be used in 3D handheld gaming consoles,
while diffusion to other devices like mobile phones requires further cost reduction of 3D
displays
∗This is because incremental cost of auto-stereoscopic displays is better justified in
handheld gaming consoles by the benefits for content immersion.
∗In the event that incremental cost of 3D displays is significantly reduced, diffusion of
mobile-sized 3D display is expected to exponentially increase
Reference: “Managing a Dispersed Product Development Process”, Ely Dahan and John R. Hauser, October 2000,

20. Conclusion
∗ 3D improved visual immersion of content, makes content more realistic and enjoyable
∗ Consumer 3D displays improve accessibility to 3D contents (previously found only in 3D
cinema)
∗ Enable consumer to watch 3D movies beyond 3D cinema, and 3D games to be enjoyed
∗ Development of 3D displays leverage off improvement in 2D displays and related
improvements in content creation and delivery
∗ Advances in liquid crystal and increased pixel density of panel enables 3D displays
∗ Complementary technologies enable creation and distribution of 3D contents
∗ However, the need for 3D glasses limits growth of 3D displays
∗ Further improvement of 3D displays is required for 3D technology to diffuse significantly

21. Thank you

22. Evolution of 3D Films and Technological Discontinuities
3D HD
Commercial
Content HD
Format Grayscale Color SD
Signal Digital Encoding
Encoding
Analog Encoding
Commercial
CRT Flat-panels
Television
Mobile Data
Digital Broadcast
Distribution Digital Broadband
Tape-based content & players Digital Disc & players
CRT compatible Analog Broadcast
Cinema Films
Digital Formats
Threatre Proprietary Film-Projector Digital Projection Systems
Presentation
systems Film format Standardized to 16,35,70m films
Several dominant Projector systems
1895 1920 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

23. Improved Depth-Perception
∗ Principle of Depth-Perception (3D): Stereopsis –slightly different images is transmitted to
each eye of an observer creating an illusion of increased depth.
∗ 3 Primary methods of increasing depth-perception and state of development:
∗ 1. Co-located Pixels: Anaglyph, Polarized (1950s)
∗ The pixel for left and right images overlay in space at the same time
∗ Realized with dual-color filtered projectors and color-filtered 3D glasses, or dual
polarize-filtered projectors with metallic screen and polarized glasses
∗ Poor result due to color cross-talk between images
∗ 2. Time-Sequential: Shutter, Polarized (2009)
∗ Image for left and right eyes are displayed one after another at high frame rate
∗ Realized with high frame rate shutters placed between screen and observer
∗ Lack of high-frequency shutter technology prior 2009
∗ 3. Spatial Separation: Lenticular, Barrier-Grid (Emerging)
∗ Pixels for each eye is slightly separated in space
∗ Realized by with high resolution panel using high-precision optics to separate images
for each eye
∗ Lack of high-resolution panels
∗ Of the above methods, each consists of a display and some form of optical filter

24. Required Pixel density of Auto-
stereoscopic panels

25. Auto-Stereoscopic 3D
in Mobile Display
∗ Auto-stereoscopy is more suitable for mobile display due to more predictable viewing
distance than TV panels
∗ Increased resolution facilitates implementation of auto-stereoscopic 3D display in mobile
devices; Pixel-density of pocket-sized panels has doubled to 192dpi in 2010
∗ In 2011, Nintendo launched the first handheld gaming console featuring an auto-stereoscopic
3D display for 3D gaming

26. Larger yet cheaper panels
Nishimura’s Law:
∗The size of substrate used grows by a factor
of 1.8 every 3 years, Doubles every 3.6 years
∗Less than half the time for IC wafers to double
ASP$
in size (7.5 years)
∗Continued growth will drive further
reductions in the cost of large displays
Odawara’s Law: Reducing ASP$ of Flat Panel TV
∗Predicts increasing returns to scale
∗ Trend indicates that increasing size of
∗Doubling in the cumulative area of flat panels substrate used in panels results in
produced results in a cost reduction of 22 to reducing cost of production, thus
23% increasing returns to scale of FPD
production.
∗(Large panels are then cut into consumer ∗ Production cost reduces with increased
product size) cumulative area of flat panels resulting in
cheaper, larger panels.
Source: http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html, US Display Consortium (USDC)

27. Improved Digital Video Compression
Algorithm
∗ Uncompressed video bitrate of 3D HD can be 25 times higher than SD
(TV) video
∗ More efficient video compression algorithm, faster video processor,
and larger storage space is required to support increased video
bitrate of 3D HD content A given sample video
∗ Latest MPEG4 AVC standard is estimated to be 7 times more efficient encoded at 30-35db
than MPEG-2 for a 2D video PSNR:
∗ MPEG 4 algorithm is more computational complex than earlier MPEG2 MPEG-2: 1600kbps
compression algorithm; better computation speed is necessary for real- MPEG-4: 250kbps
time implementation of MPEG4 compression than prior compression
algorithm
∗ MPEG-4 Multiview Video Coding (MVC) was standardized in
Higher Video
2009 for stereoscopic video. MVC extension encode
Compression efficiency stereoscopic video (twice the uncompressed bitrate of 2D
(MPEG4 MVC) video) into typically 50% more bitrate than compressed 2D
video stream, effectively reducing uncompressed bitrate of
Increased stereoscopic video
computation ∗ however, this alone is insufficient to handle the 25 times
complexity (need increase in uncompressed video bitrate; larger storage is
faster processor)
required
Source:
[1] “MPEG-4 AVC/H.264 Video Codecs Comparison”, Full version of report, Dmitriy Vatolin, CS MSU Graphics&Media Lab, May 2009
[2] “Beyond MPEG-4”, Ken McCann, CSI Magazone, Oct 2010, http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/Beyond-MPEG4.php#
[3] “Blue-ray 3D Disc specification finalized”, Lucas Mearian, Computerworld, Dec 2009

28. Improved Reality Threshold of
Computer-generated animation
Polygon count growth, motion control point growth, and the Reality
Threshold (Smith).
Alvy Ray Smith of Microsoft/Pixar has estimated that the "reality
threshold" (simulations indistinguishable from ordinary human vision) is
80 million polygons per frame, and on the order of a million motion
control points on the objects within our field of view.
Polygon count generated by leading video game hardware doubles
roughly every 2 years. If these trends continue, the reality threshold may
be achieved in 2014.
From: metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html. http://www.metaverseroadmap.org/resources.html

29. Improved 3D Environmental
Modeling Technique
∗ Computer games today often use GPU-assisted 3D environmental modeling techniques to achieve more
realistic visual effects.
∗ For example, in 3D light rendering technique (3D modeling) computer hardware helps to reproduce more
realistic light reflection on complex texture like water, leaves, skin, or cloth.
∗ These computer graphics may be modeled in 3D but had to be converted to 2D to fit most display panels.
∗ Advancement in finalization phrase conversion enables 3D models to be converted for stereoscopic 3D
displays
∗ Existing 3D models used in video games can easily be converted for 3D
2D Display
Finalization for 2D display -TV
•One video stream is rendered -PC Monitors
3D animation techniques -Mobile phone
•Light rendering
3D Modelling,
•Gravity simulation
animation
•Hair movement 3D Display
•etc Finalization for 3D display -TV
•Render for stereoscopic video -PC Monitors
streams -Mobile
-3D Glasses

30. 3D Games and Computer
Animation
∗ Besides 3D recording of performing actors, computer animation is gaining
acceptance with audience
∗ 3D modeling is commonly used in 3D games and computer animated films
∗ Improved Reality Threshold of Computer-generated animation:
∗ Increased polygon count in 3D modeling and motion control points
improves realism of computer animation (artificial simulation vs. live-
action).
∗ Mature 3D modeling techniques makes it easy to create 3D content for 3D
displays
∗ Existing 3D models can be easily rendered for 3D display

31. Ease of Producing 3D Contents
∗ Convergence and standardization of 3D formats from competing proprietary systems
∗ More sources of 3D content: 3D Films (live-action), 3D Video Games, 3D computer-
animation
∗ Improved 3D hardware
∗ Improved realism of computer-generated animation with 3D modeling techniques
∗ Ease of converting existing 2D contents into 3D

32. Improved Distribution of 3D contents
Increased popularity of Internet Video
∗ Increasing popularity of video sharing websites like YouTube™ enables distribution of
digital content via Internet
∗ Internet is increasingly available in multitude of battery powered mobile devices.
Mobile broadband provide Internet connectivity to mobile users
∗ Mobile devices with auto-stereoscopic 3D displays will be able to show 3D content
from the Internet, increasing audience of 3D contents

33. Increased market size for 3D Films
∗ In 2009, active 3D shutter glasses was
introduced in cinema. This system is popular
as 3D conversion cost of 2D cinema is
relative low compared to prior proprietary
systems.
∗ 3D-capable cinema doubled between 2008
and 2009
∗ Similar 3D shutter glasses system is adopted
for LCD displays enabling 3D films to be Growth of 3D-capable cinema. Source “Cinema industry
shown on home television, expanding moving to 3D. Sony corp.
http://www.sony.net/united/3D/static/technology/digital_ci
market of 3D films beyond the cinema nema/digital_cinema01.html
screens
∗ Growth of 3D cinema together with growth
of 3D displays increases market size of 3D
films, encourages more 3D film to be
produced
∗ Increases in 3D market size improves
economy of scale of production of 3D films
as films reaches a larger pool of viewers Growth of 3D Displays. Source: “DisplaySearch forecasts 38 percent
CAGR for stereoscopic 3D display revenues”, EE Times, 1/5/2010,
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4196659/DisplaySearch-
forecasts-38-percent-CAGR-for-stereoscopic-3D-display-revenues

34. Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D
Display
∗ Implementation of Time-sequential 3D system in LCD displays
enabling 3D films for cinema to be shown on home television
∗ Expanding market of 3D films beyond the cinema screens
improves economy of scale of production of 3D films, encourages
more 3D films to be made
∗ Increasing amount of 3D content encourage diffusion of 3D
displays, which shares similar digital format used in 3D cinema
∗ While 3D shutter glasses cost $100 each, emerging improvement is
being developed for 3D display to use $10 polarized 3D glasses
reducing the cost of 3D glasses required, lowering cost of 3D
display
∗ Yet, eyewear-based solution is a hindrance to widespread
adoption of 3D displays

35. Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D
Display
∗ Auto-stereoscopy 3D displays do away with 3D glasses providing a more comfortable and
natural viewing experience
∗ High pixel count of panels is required by Auto-stereoscopy to create 3D viewing area where
viewers has to be positioned
∗ However, pixel count of television-size panels has not reach the level necessary for auto-
stereoscopy; Ultra-High resolution television-sized panels are expected to become available
in 2016
∗ In the mean time, pixel density of portable display has reach a level good enough for auto-
stereoscopy 3D
∗ Auto-stereoscopy is increasingly
adopted in small, high pixel density
screens, e.g. Nintendo 3DS
∗ Diffusion of 3D displays is likely to
occur concurrently first with two
stereoscopic systems:
1. time-sequential 3D on television-
size panels,
2. Auto-stereoscopic 3D on 3D
mobile display
∗ Eventually, 3D displays is likely to
convergence towards auto-
stereoscopic systems

36. Growth of 3D Display
3D Displays
Diffusion ∗ Wide-spread
diffusion is
expected with the
convergence
Auto-stereoscopic 3D towards Auto-
display (no eyewear)
stereoscopic 3D
Time-sequential
Polarized 3D
displays
Glasses for
consumers
Active Shutter 3D
Glasses for
consumers
Auto-stereoscopic 3D
display (no eyewear)
2010 2016 Time