1. Centro del Sector Financiero
The Sovereign Debt Crisis of the EZ
and the
Outlook of the Spanish Economy
28th November 2011

2. World Economy
Manufacturing Index PMI
World
Germany
EE.UU.
2

3. World Economy
Volume of exports momentum
Quarterly change in 3-month average (%)
World and aggregates
Source: BBVA Research and World Trade Monitor
3

4. EZ Debt Crisis – External imbalances in the Euro Area –
large and persistent
Source: OECD
4

5. EZ Debt Crisis – Diverging real interest rates –destabilising,
sparking credit cycles
Source: OECD
5

6. EZ Debt Crisis - Indebtedness and leverage in selected
advanced Economies
1Cellsshaded in red indicate a value in the top 25 percent of a poled sample of all countries shown in the table from 1990 through 2009 (no longest sample available). Green
shading indicates values in the bottom 50 percent, and yellow in the 50 th to 75th percentile. The sample for bank leverage data starts in 2008 only.
2 World Economic Outlook projections for 2011.
3 Net general government debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments.
4 Most recent data divided by annual GDP (projected for 2011). Nonfinancial corporate ’ gross debt includes intercompany loans and trade credit, and these can differ
significantly across countries.
5 Household net debt is calculated using financial assets and liabilities from a country’ s flow of funds data.
6 Leverage is defined as the ratio of tangible assets to tangible common equity for domestic banks.
7 Calculated from assets and liabilities reported in a country’s international investment position.
8Most recent data for externally held general government debt (from JEDH) divided by 2011 GDP from WEO. Not that debt data from the JEDH are not comparable to WEO
debt data when they are at market value.
Source: Bank for International Settlements, Bloomberg, IMF staff estimates
6

7. EZ Debt Crisis - International investment position of some
member countries
Source: IFS
7

8. EZ Debt Crisis - Comparative indicators of some member
countries
Source: WEO, OECD. Bloomberg, Bank of Spain, ECB, IMF Staffs estimates
8

9. EZ Debt Crisis – Private sector debt and Property Bubbles
Source: OECD
9

10. EZ Debt Crisis – Competitiveness of member countries
Source: Direction of Trade, Eurostat, WEO
10

11. EZ Debt Crisis - Cumulative spillovers from high-spread
Euro Area sovereigns to the European Union banking system
Source: IMF staff estimates
11

12. Spanish Economy - High levels of unemployment
Source: Ministry of Labor and Immigration; Eurostat; and INE
12

13. Spanish Economy
Source: Bloomberg and IMF Staff Estimates
13

14. Spanish Economy - Size of potential negative spillovers
from Spain
Source: IMF Research
14

15. Spanish Economy - Funding and liquidity pressure to
remain elevated
Source: Bank of Spain, Asociación Española de Banca, Confederación Española de Cajas de Ahorros, Bloomberg, IMF Staffs estimates
15

16. Spanish Economy – Net borrowing / lending of the Spanish
general government
Net lending (+) / Net borrow ing (-)
General Governm ent
20,000
10,000
0
Million euros
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-27,396
-40,000
-50,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Accumulating the results for the first two quarters, Public Administrations had net
borrowing of 41,348 million, 7.7% of GDP
Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística
16

17. Spanish Economy - Funding and liquidity pressure to
remain elevated
Source: Bank of Spain, Asociación Española de Banca, Confederación Española de Cajas de Ahorros, Bloomberg, IMF Staffs estimates
17

18. Spanish Economy - Financial sector indicators
Credit to the private sector plunged
Source: Bank of Spain, ECB
18

19. Centro del Sector Financiero