This article is written on an initiative that aims at reducing poor populations’ vulnerability to climate change and variability through meteorological and Indigenous Knowledge-Based Forecasting.

1. Meteorological and Indigenous Knowledge-
Based Forecasting for Reducing Poor
Populations’ Vulnerability to Climate Change
and Variability1
Fréjus Thoto and Saïd Hounkponou
Corresponding author: PO Box: 660 Abomey-Calavi, Benin;
Email: frejusthoto@gmail.com Phone: + (229) 96 38 60 15
Abstract
The extreme variability of climate in recent decades, is
threatening the food security of rural populations in Benin
leading to a decline in farm yields. An early warning
system and agro-meteorological information that
integrates indigenous knowledge on climate was the focus
of this project aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate
change and variability. The effective collection and
communication of requisite information was made
possible through the implementation of a multi-
stakeholders’ platform where climate data was collected
from various sources and tailored towards farmers’ needs.
The data was processed at: 1) national level where general
forecasts were made by a multi-actors panel, and 2) local
1We acknowledge financial assistance from IDRC and DFID for the
purposes of this study.
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2. community level where general forecasts were re-adapted
to local context and during which indigenous knowledge
was integrated. The data was used to prepare bi-monthly
forecasts, which provided basic information which aided
in providing functional counseling to farmers. Seasonal
forecasts, and climate related counseling were
disseminated to farmers through local radio, extension
services and local pre-alert committees to facilitate the
farmers’ decision-taking. Given that most of the farmers
within the project area acknowledged the importance of
this climate information, about 66% of them expressed
willingness to pay in order to receive such climate-related
services. The project’s farmers consistently reported
higher yields, and correspondingly higher incomes (10%
to 80% increases relative to those not in project areas, i.e.
than those producing crops without the benefit of locally
tailored weather data). This approach could further
strengthen the adaptive capacity of rural producers to
climate change and variability.
Keywords: climate change, early warning system,
indigenous knowledge, farmers, Benin
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3. Prévision basée sur les données
météorologiques et les connaissances
autochtones pour la réduction de la
vulnérabilité des populations pauvres à la
variabilité et aux changements Climatiques.
Résumé
L'extrême variabilité du climat observée au cours des
dernières décennies et traduite par la diminution du
rendement des cultures menace la sécurité alimentaire des
populations rurales au Bénin. L'élaboration d'un système
d'alerte précoce et d'information agro-météorologique qui
intègre les connaissances autochtones sur le climat a fait
l'objet du projet visant à réduire la vulnérabilité au
changement climatique et à la variabilité. La collecte
efficace et la communication de l'information requise a été
rendue possible grâce à la conception et la mise en œuvre
de plates-formes multi-acteurs permettant de recueillir des
données climatiques à partir de sources diverses et
adaptées aux besoins des agriculteurs. Les données sont
traitées : 1) au niveau national où les prévisions générales
sont faites par un panel multi-acteurs et 2) au niveau des
communautés locales où les prévisions générales sont
adaptées au contexte local et les connaissances
autochtones sont intégrées. Ces données sont utilisées
pour l’élaboration des prévisions bimensuelles en
fournissant des informations de base pour dispenser des
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4. conseils fonctionnels aux agriculteurs. Des prévisions
saisonnières et des conseils relatifs au climat sont diffusés
aux agriculteurs à travers la radio locale, les services de
vulgarisation et de des comités locaux de pré-alerte en vue
de faciliter la prise de décision par les agriculteurs. Vu que
la plupart des agriculteurs au sein de la zone du projet
reconnaissent l'importance de ces informations
climatiques, environ 66% d'entre ceux-ci ont manifesté la
volonté de payer pour bénéficier de ces services
climatiques. Les agriculteurs participant au projet
déclarent constamment des rendements plus élevés, et des
revenus d'autant plus élevés (une augmentation de 10 à
80% par rapport aux zones en dehors de la zone du projet),
que ceux des paysans qui ne bénéficient pas des données
météorologiques locales adaptées. Cette approche pourrait
renforcer la capacité d'adaptation des producteurs ruraux
aux changements climatiques et à la variabilité.
Mots clés: changement climatique, système d'alerte
précoce, connaissances autochtones, agriculteurs, Benin.
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5. Introduction
The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007)
demonstrated conclusively that climate change continues
to pose serious threats to growth and sustainable
development in Africa, hence impeding the achievement
of the MDGs (UNDP, 2007). This threat particularly puts
Benin on a delicate precipice because agriculture remains
the basis of its economy. Although several studies have
been conducted on the adaptive capacities of Benin
farmers and rural communities to climate change and
variability, a holistic approach which involves the
communities themselves would be more sustainable.
Hence the relevance of this approach which uses available
climate information to anticipate and manage annual
climate-related risks (Tarhule 2005; Washington et al.
2006). Climate information is usually available from two
main sources: meteorological seasonal climate forecasts
(SCFs) and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal
forecasts (IKFs) (Ziervogel, 2010). SCFs are generated in
Benin by the national meteorological services using
models and empirical data. This specialized, scientific
institution generates weather and climate related products
within the guidelines set by the World Meteorological
Organization. Their work is supplemented by other
regional and international climate centers including the
African Centre of Meteorological Applications for
Development (ACMAD), the Centre Régional de
Formation et d’Application en Agrométéorologie et
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6. Hydrologie Opérationelle (AGRHYMET). On the other
hand, IKFs are produced locally by people who live in the
area for which the prediction is made. They are often
based on generations of experience and include both
biophysical and mystical indicators. This paper highlights
the experience of Benin in providing farmers with climate
information and related counsel by integrating seasonal
climate forecasts and indigenous knowledge-based
seasonal forecasts to reduce the vulnerability of the
agricultural sector.
Methodology
Data collection
Rainfall and phenological data are essential in the
implementation of an early warning and agro-
meteorological information system. Therefore, rainfall
data was collected from 20 meteorological stations of the
national meteorological services located within six
departments of Benin. The data was supplemented by
climate advisories, weather prediction products made up
by the African Centre for Meteorological Applications for
Development. In order to strengthen the early warning
system, phenological data from 18 municipalities were
collected every ten days. And for each municipality, five
farm observations were made per decade.
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7. Climate information system implementation
The first component of the agro-meteorological
information production chain was the National Committee
for Early Warning and Agro-meteorological Information.
The committee was made up of the following: Ministry of
Agriculture, Ministry of Environment, Universities,
National Meteorological Service, and Farmers
Organizations. This committee was responsible for the
production and validation of the agro-meteorological
bulletin. With climate and phenological data collected, a
first draft of the bulletin was developed by the national
meteorological service experts. Then a workshop was held
by the national committee who gathered multidisciplinary
and complementary skills to improve and validate the
contents of the bulletin. The product derived from this
workshop was a weather bulletin and general agriculture
climate-related advice that applied to farms throughout the
country. The second component of the agro-
meteorological information production chain was the
Local Committee for Early Warning and Agro-
meteorological Information. This committee was made up
of agricultural extension services, farmers, local
authorities and local radios. The work of this committee
was based on the weather bulletin developed by the
national committee. The national bulletin contained
general information that was not regionally targeted.
Information was then localized and adapted to particular
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8. conditions of each region by the local stakeholders who
comprised the local committee.
Integrating indigenous knowledge
Several natural indicators such as the moon and
constellation movements, tree species and birds were
listed by traditional leaders, farming communities with
rich experience of several weather events or climate risks
since the 1950s. Cultural models used by local farmers in
predicting weather included various patterns of upstream
and downstream events during the seasons. Some
examples include the following:
Constellation movements and moon
predictions: According to the observation
According to the observation of some group of men
surveyed in the study area, whenever clusters of stars
(locally known as eza) appeared in the East during the
month of May, it was a sign that the rainy season would
be good. When the opposite occurred during this period,
producers should expect that the production might not be
good during the season. The people surveyed in rural Adja
community also mentioned that whenever there was a
heavy rainfall within the period between 25th January and
5th February it was an indication that the year would be a
normal year.
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9. Use of plant species in predictions
Adja communities revealed that when the first rains from
February to mid-March were ‘sweeping’ the flowers of the
shrub species Cryptolepis sanguinolenta, it was a sign of
a good season. Farmers claimed that some tree species
provided a benchmark during the rainy season and
especially so during the second bimodal rainy season
which is characteristic of central parts of Benin. For
example, the appearance of red flowers of Erythrina
senegalensis in August or September was an indication of
an end of the season. Analysis in connection with the
agricultural calendar showed that these indigenous
knowledge-based predictions often coincided with
scientific prediction.
Use of bird species in prediction:
According to farmers, the behavior of certain species of
birds could aid in predicting a rainy season. Investigations
showed that the bird called toucan appeared to be the most
common indicator. The communities hinted that whenever
the toucans multiplied the frequency of their songs
between February and March, it meant that the rainy
season was close. The communities mentioned that this
same bird’s behavior usually boosted the psychological
morale of producers as they prepared their farming plots –
i.e. such farmers got more and more convinced that the
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10. rains would arrive within days. This indicator seemed to
be well known and understood by rural communities
throughout Benin. The bird species Bulbucus ibis was also
stated as a good indicator of on-coming weather events.
The appearance of the ibis in villages in Benin indicated
that the rainy season was over – such a presence
announced the beginning of a dry season. At such
instances, the producers always began the construction of
‘fire fences’ to protect their plots from dry season fires.
Customs and practices in the prediction
Unlike the observation and use of natural indicators in
weather prediction, the practice of divination and other
spiritual practices in predicting or inducing rain are the
prerogative of traditional “rainmakers”. In Benin some
traditional leaders hold mystical powers that help alleviate
the problems caused by absence of rainfall or dry spells
occurring during the rainy season. The deities that are
often talked about are “Hêviosso”, “Sakpata” and
“Tohossou”. Societies in which such beliefs are practiced
were organized in a way that at the end of the rainy season
and after harvesting, producers present gifts to traditional
leaders requesting them to prepare for a better future
season. Ultimately, such indigenous knowledge are
sometimes integrated in the analysis of scientific bulletin
produced by the national weather committee. This
integration is done at the local level by local committees
that involve experienced producers.
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11. Information dissemination and feedback
Data produced through these methods are used to devise
pieces of advice which are disseminated by local
committee’s members, the agricultural extension officers
and local radio. In this manner, information feedbacks
from producers are provided to the national committee for
improvements of future weather bulletins. This agro-
meteorological information dissemination usually began
in early growing season or March, and ended in late
season or November.
Generated knowledge
Relevant knowledge was generated from the
implementation of the early warning and agro-
meteorological information system. The first was related
to the strategy of setting up and managing this kind of
innovative system. It is important to point out that
originally the weather data provided by the National
Meteorological Agency were used only for air navigation
purposes and were not usually disseminated. But the
project succeeded in exploiting some of the data for
agriculture purposes. Thus, despite the fact that Benin
does not have the means of making detailed seasonal
forecasts for different climate zones, this project
demonstrated that it is possible to establish trends in
climate that may improve the counseling provided to
farmers on planting and harvesting dates. On the other
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12. hand, activities undertaken through this project indicated
that indigenous knowledge on climate could also be useful
for scientific forecasts.
Impacts on food security
The natural factor determining the evolution of food
insecurity in Benin remains unquestionably climate
variability. Small farmers are trying to redefine the space-
time organization of their agricultural work. Therefore an
approach for agricultural adaptation to climate change in
Benin would be related to the adjustment of how
producers manage their farms regarding climate change
and weather events. The technical itineraries used hitherto
in predicting weather in Benin, were established within a
context where climatic factors were not a major constraint.
Today, however, climate change has become a key
variable, and the use of an adapted crop management
system would be an approach second to none in Benin’s
continued agricultural development as the climate
changes. One solution to overcome this issue is to provide
tailor-made climate forecasts which could facilitate the
counseling services provided to farmers in order to
empower them to better adapt to the present and future
effects of climate change and climate variability. Such
counsel should be related to agricultural calendars and
prevailing producer practices. The decision to plant or
even harvest depends on climate risk factors faced by the
farmer.
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13. This is the core of this system that being implemented as
demonstrated in this project. Information provided by the
system helps producers to minimize losses in the face of
unfavorable climate events. Results from this study
indicated that 92% of farmers who received this climate-
related agricultural information were convinced of their
relevance, and they planned their activities based such
data. Moreover, 66% of these producers were willing to
pay to receive such agricultural information. It was
observed that farmers using such information reported
higher yields, and correspondingly higher incomes, than
those producing crops without the benefit of locally
tailored climate information. The impacts of this early
warning system and agro-meteorological information on
reducing the vulnerability of small producers and even
food insecurity in Africa have also been demonstrated by
similar studies conducted by the Institut de Recherche
pour le Développement (IRD) in Senegal and Niger (IRD,
2011). These studies revealed that adjusting cropping
strategies using forecasts and agro-meteorological
information could allow up to 80% yield increases in areas
where cash crops such as groundnuts were grown, as in
the Saloum Delta. In Niger similar climate prediction had
been used to assist farmers increase their revenues up to
30%. This indicates that using agro-meteorological
information to adjust the cropping and other technical
itineraries in anticipation of climate events could be
helpful to farmers.
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14. Conclusions
Preliminary results from this study indicate that
integrating climate prediction in the design of counseling
services provided to farmers would be useful in countries
heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. The experience
of the early warning and agro-meteorological information
system could be a means to foster the dynamics on the
value of agro- meteorological information in the
agricultural production system in Benin, especially within
the context of climate change. The adoption of this
approach has also facilitated multiinstitutional
collaboration, the sharing of skills, and creation of
linkages to traditional practices, beliefs and knowledge for
the benefit of the producers.
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15. Tarhule, A.A. 2005. Climate information for
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16. Article Citation
Thoto, F., & Hounkponou S. (2012). Meteorological and
Indigenous Knowledge-Based Forecasting for Reducing Poor
Populations’ Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability.
In P. Sérémé & H. Roy-Macauley (Eds.), Empowering the
Rural Poor to Adapt to Climate Change and Variability in West
and Central Africa. Paper presented at the CORAF/WECARD
3rd Agricultural Science Week and 10th General Assembly,
Ndjamena, Chad, 2012 (pp. 96-101). Senegal:
CORAF/WECARD.
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