What Do Iraqis Think? A Presentation by Dr. Munqith al-Dagher

ISIL in Iraq: A disease or just the
symptoms? A public opinion
analysis
Munqith M. Dagher
IIACSS, Iraq
Nation wide survey 8th June 2014

Terrorist Organizations in Iraq (Sunni area)
• Al-Qaida:
• Very active since 2004 to 2010
• ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant):
• Appeared in Syria in 2013 as one of the main actors there
• Used by Asad to justify the suppression of the revolution hand and gain
international support.
• ISIL began gaining ground in Anbar after the Iraqi central government ignored
demonstrators’ demands there.

What is ISIL?
• ISIL is the latest and most powerful incarnation of what began as an
al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion.
• American forces spent years and enormous resources to bring the
group largely to heel before US troops pulled out of the country in
December of 2011.
• Since then, the region has been embroiled in political turmoil and
sectarian violence. ISIL has seized on those Sunni-Shiite tensions to
galvanize its Sunni extremist followers.
• The group is led by an ambitious Iraqi militant known by his nom de
guerre, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

What is ISIL?
• The Syrian uprising, which began in 2011, opened the door to his
greater ambitions. Al-Baghdadi dispatched militants to Syria to
establish a group called the Nusra Front. Initially, more moderate
Syrian rebels welcomed the group's experienced fighters, but ISIL
alienated rebels and Syrian civilians alike with its brutality and
attempts to impose its strict interpretation of Islam.
• Eventually, ISIL’s presence in Syria proved so destabilizing that it fell
out with the Nusra Front. Their mutual patron at the time, al-Qaida
leader Ayman al-Zawahri, formally disavowed ISIL.

What is ISIL?
• ISIL fought as al-Qaida’s Iraq branch against US forces during the years
of American occupation in Iraq, but broke away from al-Qaida after
joining the civil war in Syria. ISIL now claims that the group founded
by Osama bin Laden is not extreme enough

ISIL in Mosul
• Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, fell out of the control of the
Iraqi central government on the 9th of June 2014. Most international
media reported that ISIL took control of Mosul, but is that correct?

About Mosul
• The population of Mosul is around 2,000,000. Most are Arab Sunni.
• Total number of security forces in Mosul was between 120,000 to
150,000 armed with light, medium, and heavy weapons including
tanks and aircraft.
• The highest number of ISIL fighters reported by media was 500.

Who is fighting in Mosul and other Sunni
areas in Iraq?
• Only 10-20% of military gains are attributed to ISIL, but the group’s
reputation is now gaining more influence internally due to the
inflated media coverage.
• Several Iraqi armed groups under the control of:
1- Baathist (Jihad and Liberty Front) with 6 armed groups under their control.
2- Moderate Islamist
3- Tribal rebels

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the
wrong direction?
11
10.8
11
82.7
81
85
January
Febrauray
March
Wrong direction
Right direction

I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Please tell me which one
of these is the most important for the Iraqi government to address.
34.1
29.6
30.1
31.5
29.6
21.7
36.8
26
10.9
19.7
13.5
14
10.9
15.9
16.5
21
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
January
Febrauray
March
April
Security
Unemployment
Sectarianism
Corruption

Respondents were worried about certain situations which may occur in Iraq. 66% of respondents
were worried about an international conflict involving their country, 81% were worried about a
terrorist attack and 65% of Iraqi respondents were worried about a civil war.

23.8
75.3
.9
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
Agree somewhat with Statement B
Agree strongly with Statement B
DNK/Refused
Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki is not moving our government or
country to where we need to be and now it is time for a change that
requires us to choose a new prime minister.

Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki is not moving our government or country to where we
need to be and now it is time for a change that requires us to choose a new prime
minister.
0.9
23.8
75.3
DNK/Refused
Agree somewhat with
the statement
Agree strongly with
the statement

10.5
74.6
15.0
It was necessary for Maliki to concentrate powers
in his office
It would be better for Iraq to distribute powers
more evenly
DNK/Refused
Over his two terms as prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki has increased the
power of his office at the expense of other branches of government, for
example the parliament and the courts. What do you say ?

Who is the most responsible for the current
situation in Al-Anbar?
20.0%
10.9%
8.2%
22.7%
10.0%
33.0%
21.2%
8.2%
1.8%
4.5%
7.3%
14.5%
24.0%
11.7%
10.9%
11.8%
19.1%
22.7%
22.7%
9.5%
13.5%
46.4%
59.1%
54.5%
35.5%
45.5%
26.0%
42.3%
14.5%
16.4%
13.6%
11.8%
7.3%
7.5%
11.3%
Nineveh (Mosul)
At-Ta'm (Kirkuk)
Salah Ad Din (Tikrit)
Diyala (Baqubah)
Al-Anbar (Ramadi)
Baghdad
Total
Al-Qaeda
Tribal armed groups
Local officials
Iraq state officials
Other sources from
outside Iraq

Sunni agreement with ISIL can not last long.
Why?
1- Support for Secular Politics: A much higher percentage of Sunnis,
even higher than Kurds in some years, believe that Iraq would be a
better place if religion and politics were separated. Support for
secularism among Sunnis has increased from 60% in 2004 to more than
81% in 2013. By contrast, support for secular politics among Shi’a
increased from 44% in 2004 to 63% in 2011, and then dropped to 34%
in 2013. This evidence implies that the cooperation between the Sunni
tribes/groups with ISIL is unsustainable because of ISIL’s religious
extremism. A common hatred of the Shi’a, sectarian government has
led to some informal cooperation – for now.

2- Recognition of Iraq (and not religion) as the basis for identity: The
Sunnis and Shi’a both self-identify as Iraqi, rather than Muslim or Arab,
above all. This support rose from 22% in 2004 to 80% in 2008, and then
dropped to 60% among Sunnis. Among the Shi’a, it was 28% in 2004,
increased to 72% in 2007, and then dropped to 62% in 2013. Kurds largely do
not self-identify as Iraqi. Reinforcing attachment to the nation rather than to
the religion of Islam in politics is the fact that both Sunnis and Shi’a (1)
prefer politicians who are committed to the national interests over politicians
who have strong religious convictions by at least a factor of 4 to 1, and (2)
consider a good government one that makes laws according to the wishes of
the people over the one that implements only the Shari’a by at least a factor of
3 to 1. These findings indicate that neither the Shi’a nor the Sunnis would be
interested in the partition of Iraq or in the implementation of a religious state,
and the current sectarian struggle is for political supremacy rather than
division. Iraq may converge to the Lebanese model of sectarian strife.

Local Groups Oppose Terrorism and the Influence of
Predominantly Foreign Forces

Please tell me how serious a problem each of
the following is in Iraq
88.4
92.1
11.6
7.9
Sunni Shia
Terrorism
Very serious Serious

61.3
67.9
31.1
27.2
6.7
3.3
Sunni Shia
Religious extremism
Very serious Serious Not very serious

7.9
23.5
47.9
56.2
37.5
18.6
6.7
.6
Sunni Shia
Lack of government services
Very serious Serious Not very serious No problem at all

Thinking about your current situation, what is the
one major source of personal insecurity for you?
18
23.1
49.7
45.4
Sunni Shia
Political violence Terrorism

Generally speaking, do you think the following organizations have a
positive or negative influence on the internal events/affairs in Iraq?
23.2
1.6
45.5
76.5
21.3
18.1
Sunni Shia
Al-Nusra Front
Neither positive nor negative Completely negative influence Have never heard of them

2.4
39.2
69.0
26.0
18.6
23.7
Sunni Shia
Hezbollah in Lebanon
Completely positive influence Completely negative influence Neither positive nor negative

8.2
0
83.2
97.6
Sunni Shia
Al-Qaida
Positive influence Negative influence

9.7
76.5
91.9
4.6 3.2
Sunni Shia
Islamic State of Iraq and Levant
Positive influence Negative influence Neither positive nor negative

Would you support the activities of the following groups inside Iraq? Would you
strongly support, somewhat support, neither support or oppose, somewhat oppose,
or strongly oppose the activities of the following groups inside Iraq?
5.2
.9
24.8
3.9
65.4
92.1
Sunni Shia
Al Qa'ida
Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

.6 1.5
8.9
.9
18.7
3.3
60.4
86.8
Sunni Shia
Islamic State of Iraq and Levant
Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

55.2
96.0
15.0
1.0
22.9
2.4
Sunni Shia
Iraqi security forces
Strongly support Strongly oppose Neither support nor oppose

How people in Mosul feel now?

200 telephone interviews were conducted with
people from Mosul from 19-21 June.

What happened in Mosul was a result of…
28.0
36.0
5.5
6.5
12.0
12.0 A conspiracy of internal Iraqi political parties inside
and outside of Nineveh
A foreign plot against Iraq
The occupation of Nineveh by foreign armed groups
and make it a part of the Islamic state they proclaim
Marginalization and sectarianism against Sunni
Wrong practices of the army and federal police in
Nineveh
Wrong practices of the central government in
Baghdad

Who is controlling Mosul now?
51.0
3.0
4.5
19.5
21.5
Tribal rebels Fighters from the Baathists
Military Council / former army officers Foreigners, members of extremist Islamist groups
All of the above

Is it safe and secure in your neighborhood after the withdrawal of the
army and the armed groups took over the city
81.5
13.5
4.0
Category 1
Chart Title
Yes No DNK

In your opinion what is better for the current
situation in Mosul?
12.5
34.0
15.0
38.5
Defeat of insurgents by the Iraqi armed forces and the return of the army and the
police as it was the case before the recent events
Survival of Mosul under the control of insurgents
An agreement between the government and militants to retreat and to ensure their
safety in return for giving the control back to central government
The return of the authority of the central government to the province in exchange for
withdrawing the army and federal police forces and give control to local police and
the local government.

Currently there is an attempt to coordinate between the U.S. government
and Iran to help solve the problem of Nineveh. Do you support such co-
operation to defeat the militants in Nineveh?
15.5
84.5
I support this cooperation, because he would defat the militants in Nineveh I oppose this cooperation because it will exacerbate the problem

Are you still living in the same residence in Mosul
in which you used to live before the 10th of June
2014 ?
72.5
16.5
11.0
Yes No, I moved to another governorate No, I moved to another place in Mosul.

What needs to be done?
1. Recognize that a return to the pre-June 9 status quo is untenable.
2. Develop new relationships between these regions and the central
government, whose past style of authority has been deposed.
3. Identify new faces with whom to engage, as the current lot of
known politicians has de minimus legitimacy in these areas.
4. Recognize that a failure to engage because it is “complicated” or
“not our problem” will only lead to disastrous security
consequences in the future, especially if ISIL and related groups
consolidate and build upon the momentum they’ve seen in the last
two weeks.

5- Neither ISIL nor armed groups can maintain stability in
Sunni areas for long – an alternative to the poor governance
of the past is needed quickly.
6- The only feasible option is to make all parties, including
armed groups, sit together and make some trade-offs.
7- Before that, we first need to strengthen moderate armed
groups to defeat ISIL, and then encourage them to put down
their arms.
8- We need a process of political reconciliation to address the
grievances of Iraqi Sunnis. It is long overdue, and may be Iraq’s
last chance.

We need a different approach
Thank you

What Do Iraqis Think? A Presentation by Dr. Munqith al-Dagher

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