2013 socio economic prospects of advanced biofuels voetmann wfes

THE FUTURE IS BIOBASED:

SOCIO-ECONOMIC
PROSPECTS OF
ADVANCED BIOFUELS
WFES

NOVOZYMES IN BRIEF
WORLD LEADER IN BIOINNOVATION

WE GREEN THE WORLD:
 Enzymes save energy, chemicals,
raw-materials and water
 In 2011, Novozymes helped
customers save 45 million tons of CO2

BASED ON INNOVATION:
 14% of sales re-invested in R&D
 7000 patents granted or pending

LEADING THE WAY IN ENABLING TECHNOLOGY
FOR ADVANCED BIOFUELS

 World leader in biofuel enzymes
 Global R&D focus on advanced biofuels
 Broad partnership strategy – we are working on many
feedstocks and technologies
 More than 150 people dedicated to advanced biofuels

3 Novozymes' R&D locations

 Transport is the second largest energy
user and by far the largest oil user
 By 2050 there will be an estimated 2.3
billion additional cars worldwide – 1.9
billion of these in developing countries
 Transport continues to be the fastest
growing CO2 emitter

Source: International Energy Agency: ”World Energy Outlook”, 2011 and
International Monetary Fund: ”Mass Car Ownership in the Emerging Market Giants”, 2008

WHY WE NEED BIOFUELS 2010
Total number of cars is 760.000.000

Source for total number of cars: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2008);
Chamon, Mauro and Okawa in Economic Policy (April 2008)
Source for distribution of cars: Source: Various statistics found on WWW –
distribution is only indicative of development.

WHY WE NEED BIOFUELS 2050
Total number of cars will be 2.900.000.000

Source for total number of cars: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2008); Chamon, Mauro and Okawa in Economic Policy (April 08)
Source for distribution of cars: Source: Various statistics found on WWW – distribution is only indicative of development.

THIS IS A POWER PLANT
POWER FOR FOOD, FEED AND FUEL

FOOD, FEED AND FUEL

ADVANCED BIOFUELS

ELECTRICITY AND FEED

THE TECHNOLOGY IS READY AND
PRODUCTION IS BEING SCALED UP
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

US Demonstration scale Commercial scale

Europe Demonstration scale Commercial scale

China Pilot scale Demonstration scale Commercial scale

Brazil Pilot scale Demonstration scale Commercial scale

*Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012

BNEF STUDY BASED ON
THE AGRICULTURAL POWERHOUSES

United EU-27
States
China
Mexico
India

Brazil

Argentina Australia

G20 countries not included: Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Republic of Korea, Turkey

AGRICULTURAL RESIDUE AVAILABILITY
IN THE 8 SELECT REGIONS
Billion dry tons, 2030
 A maximum of 17.5% is
Power 2,5% Husbandry assumed to be available for
5%
advanced biofuel production

 Collecting only 25% of
Advanced agricultural residue is a
biofuels
17,5%
conservative methodology
that takes into accounts
Total = 4,6bn technical and ecological
constraints
Residue left
on field
75%
 This purposefully aim to
preserve soil quality and are
in the low-to-medium range
of comparable studies

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012

AGRICULTURE IS
A HUGE UNDER-UTILIZED RESOURCE
The agricultural powerhouses have enough biomass for a good realistic
scenario on car fleet mix
Million
dry tons

250

200

Five major
150 crops represent
88% of the 24
crops
analysed, totalli
100
ng 800m tonnes
in 2030
available for
50
advanced
biofuels

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Maize residue Rice residue Other residues
Wheat residue Sugarcane residue Soybean residue


THE RESIDUE POTENTIAL IS HUGE

2030 figures
agricultural
residues only

2.5% POWER
5% HUSBANDRY

17.5% 914 million tonnes of residues will be available
75%
RESIDUES LEFT in eight selected regions and can replace
ON FIELD
half of the gasoline needs

PRODUCTION POTENTIAL BY 2030
LOWERING FOSSIL FUEL IMPORT BILL
10% of gasoline could be replaced by
advanced biofuels by using only 5% of
Argentina 1 7 the available agricultural residue supply

50% of the forecast 2030 gasoline
Australia 3 7
demand could be replaced by advanced
biofuels using only 20% of agricultural
India 4 37 residue

Mexico 8 8

Brazil 8 71

EU-27 9 60

China 24 89

United States 53 72
Bn. liters

10% blending scenario Residue Potential Scenario

Note: India and Argentina meet 100% of their gasoline requirements without using all their available
residues. Mexico uses all its residues before reaching 10%.


• Biofuels is the only large-scale alternative
when it comes to transportation

• INVESTMENT IN
The technology is ready
BIOENERGY WILL BRING
• Biofuels is competitive to oil
ECONOMIC GROWTH
• AND DEVELOPMENT FOR
… and holds great potential in countries
resting on an agricultural base
RURAL AREAS

WHAT ARE THE
SUSTAINABILITY ASSUMPTIONS?

LAND USE In this study we assume land use patterns will not change before 2030;
PATTERNS existing activities are not altered nor is new agricultural land added

We assume a maximum of 17.5% is potentially available for bioenergy
HUMUS production; it is a conservative estimate which deliberately steers clear
BALANCE of removing a high level of nutrients. For sugarcane bagasse we assume
that 30% is used for advanced biofuels. The rest for bioelectricity

YIELD Our methodology assumes stable yield growth rates, based on historic
data between 1989 and 2010
GROWTH

ENERGY We excluded energy crops and forestry residues. Taking them into
CROPS account would however increase total biomass availability


WHAT ARE THE
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

PLANT We assume total facility costs for a next-generation ethanol
COSTS refinery will be approximately $1.50 per litre of annual capacity

ETHANOL For this example we used $0.44 per litre as it is roughly the
REVENUES energy equivalent price with an oil price of $100 per barrel

Following the EU Renewable Energy Directive indications, the
GHG study assumes next-generation ethanol, using the enzymatic
EMISSIONS hydrolysis technology, reduces emissions by 80%


AGRICULTURAL RESIDUE AVAILABILITY
CHINA IN THE LEAD, 2030

The agricultural powerhouses still
Argentina 2 39 hold great potential. If next-
generation technologies fulfil
Australia 8 16 their promise then these
resources can be viewed in the
India 9 110 same terms as a barrel of oil

Mexico 20 20

Brazil 21 177

EU-27 22 151

China 60 221

United States 133 180

Million dry tons
Fuel Demand Residue Potential


REQUIRED INVESTMENTS WOULD
BOOST ECONOMY IN RURAL AREAS, 2030

Argentina 10 65 Total potential to generate
revenues of $1 trillion between
Australia 9 58 today and 2050 (Fuel Demand
Scenario) when assuming oil is
India 50 329
at $100 per barrel
Mexico 11 70

Brazil 94 622

EU-27 80 532

China 118 779

United States 96 633
Bn. USD

Investment Revenue

Note 1: Revenues are for delivered next-generation ethanol and are generated by plants throughout a 20-year lifetime.
Note 2: We assume total facility costs for a next-generation ethanol refinery will be approximately USD 1.50 per litre of annual capacity.


JOB CREATION BY REGION
MILLION MAN YEARS OF EMPLOYMENT, 2030

Argentina 0.30
Harvesting a sustainable amount
of agricultural residue will provide
Australia 0.12 rural economies with an
additional revenue source that
India 0.08 0.91 will help diversify farmers’
income
Mexico 0.15

Brazil 0.15 1.25

EU-27 0.17 1.18

China 0.78 2.87

United States 1.02 1.37
Million
man-years
Fuel Demand Residue Potential

Note: Job creation, or one man-year of employment, in the
bioproduct industry comes in two parts: firstly, biorefinery
construction and operation jobs; and secondly, agricultural residue
supply chain jobs.


JOB CREATION ACROSS THE
ADVANCED BIOFUELS SUPPLY CHAIN

COLLECTION TRANSPORT CONSTRUCTION CONVERSION

ETHANOL # OF REFINERIES
DEMAND

FEEDSTOCK INVESTMENT NEEDS
BIOMASS DEMAND
MIX ($BN)

CONVERSION AGRICULTURAL
EFFICIENCY RESIDUE

FEEDSTOCK TRANSPORT CONSTRUCTION OPERATION
JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS


25% OFF TRANSPORT EMISSIONS
WITH ADVANCED BIOFUELS
Million ton CO2
equivalent

2500

2000
Gasoline emissions
Fuel Demand Scenario

1500
Residue Potential Scenario

1000

Residue Potential
500
Scenario: 475 million
tons of CO2 less between
0 today and 2030. Equates
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 to not burning 2.6 million
railcars of coal
Note: EU sustainable transport group data demonstrates a litre of gasoline has a well-to-
wheel emissions footprint of 2.42kg per CO2e. Following the RED methodology, the
study assumes next-generation ethanol – using enzymatic hydrolysis – reduces
GHG emissions by 80%.


WHAT’S IN IT FOR
THE WORLD

Agricultural
Energy Security Growth Jobs CO2
Residues
221 mio dry ton China could displace up to 37% of 779 bn USD 2.87 million man 29%
China its gasoline consumption in 2030 years

180 mio dry ton The US could displace up to 16% 663bn USD 1.37 million man 11%
US of its gasoline consumption in years
2030
177 mio dry ton Brazil could displace 83% of 622 bn USD 1.25 million man 67%
gasoline consumption in 2030. years
Brazil This is on top of sugarcane
ethanol
110 mio dry ton India could displace up to 100% 329 bn USD 0.91 million man 80%
of its gasoline consumption in years
India 2030 and still produce 4bn litres
for export
151 mio dry ton The EU27 could displace 532 bn USD 1.18 million man 54%
Europe 68% of its gasoline consumption years
in 2030
39 mio dry ton Argentina could replace up to 65 bn USD 0.30 million man 80%
100% of its gasoline consumption years
Argentina by 2030 and potentially export
ethanol
16 mio dry ton Australia could replace up to 19% 58 bn USD 0.12 million man 17%
Australia of its gasoline consumption by years
2030
20 mio dry ton Mexico could displace up to 7% of 70 bn USD 0.15 million man 5%
Mexico its gasoline consumption in 2030, years


WHAT’S IN IT FOR

BRAZIL?
Energy The Brazil can replace 83% of its annual gasoline
security consumption by 2030 with advanced biofuels

Create almost 1.25 million jobs between 2010
Jobs
and 2030 mainly in rural areas

Brazilian players would be the major
Economy beneficiaries, including 94 billion USD domestic
engineering, construction and feedstock market

Environ- Save CO2 and reducing GHG emission from
ment gasoline related road transport by 67%


WHAT’S IN IT FOR

ARGENTINA?
Argentina can replace 100% of its annual gasoline
Energy consumption by 2030 with advanced biofuels and
security potentially export ethanol

Jobs

Argentine players would be the major



WHAT’S IN IT FOR

MEXICO?
Mexico can replace 7% of its annual gasoline
Energy consumption by 2030 with advanced biofuels and
security potentially export ethanol

Jobs

Mexican players would be the major



2013 socio economic prospects of advanced biofuels voetmann wfes

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Semelhante a 2013 socio economic prospects of advanced biofuels voetmann wfes

Semelhante a 2013 socio economic prospects of advanced biofuels voetmann wfes (20)

Último

Último (20)

2013 socio economic prospects of advanced biofuels voetmann wfes