I will be sharing Novozymes' view on bioenergy and sustainability today at WFES and wanted to share some key data on biomass availability, the transportation context and some regional data.
Potential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and Insights
2013 socio economic prospects of advanced biofuels voetmann wfes
1. THE FUTURE IS BIOBASED:
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
PROSPECTS OF
ADVANCED BIOFUELS
WFES
2. NOVOZYMES IN BRIEF
WORLD LEADER IN BIOINNOVATION
WE GREEN THE WORLD:
Enzymes save energy, chemicals,
raw-materials and water
In 2011, Novozymes helped
customers save 45 million tons of CO2
BASED ON INNOVATION:
14% of sales re-invested in R&D
7000 patents granted or pending
3. LEADING THE WAY IN ENABLING TECHNOLOGY
FOR ADVANCED BIOFUELS
World leader in biofuel enzymes
Global R&D focus on advanced biofuels
Broad partnership strategy – we are working on many
feedstocks and technologies
More than 150 people dedicated to advanced biofuels
3 Novozymes' R&D locations
4. Transport is the second largest energy
user and by far the largest oil user
By 2050 there will be an estimated 2.3
billion additional cars worldwide – 1.9
billion of these in developing countries
Transport continues to be the fastest
growing CO2 emitter
Source: International Energy Agency: ”World Energy Outlook”, 2011 and
International Monetary Fund: ”Mass Car Ownership in the Emerging Market Giants”, 2008
5. WHY WE NEED BIOFUELS 2010
Total number of cars is 760.000.000
Source for total number of cars: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2008);
Chamon, Mauro and Okawa in Economic Policy (April 2008)
Source for distribution of cars: Source: Various statistics found on WWW –
distribution is only indicative of development.
6. WHY WE NEED BIOFUELS 2050
Total number of cars will be 2.900.000.000
Source for total number of cars: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2008); Chamon, Mauro and Okawa in Economic Policy (April 08)
Source for distribution of cars: Source: Various statistics found on WWW – distribution is only indicative of development.
7. THIS IS A POWER PLANT
POWER FOR FOOD, FEED AND FUEL
FOOD, FEED AND FUEL
ADVANCED BIOFUELS
ELECTRICITY AND FEED
8. THE TECHNOLOGY IS READY AND
PRODUCTION IS BEING SCALED UP
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Demonstration scale Commercial scale
Europe Demonstration scale Commercial scale
China Pilot scale Demonstration scale Commercial scale
Brazil Pilot scale Demonstration scale Commercial scale
9. *Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
10. BNEF STUDY BASED ON
THE AGRICULTURAL POWERHOUSES
United EU-27
States
China
Mexico
India
Brazil
Argentina Australia
G20 countries not included: Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Republic of Korea, Turkey
11. AGRICULTURAL RESIDUE AVAILABILITY
IN THE 8 SELECT REGIONS
Billion dry tons, 2030
A maximum of 17.5% is
Power 2,5% Husbandry assumed to be available for
5%
advanced biofuel production
Collecting only 25% of
Advanced agricultural residue is a
biofuels
17,5%
conservative methodology
that takes into accounts
Total = 4,6bn technical and ecological
constraints
Residue left
on field
75%
This purposefully aim to
preserve soil quality and are
in the low-to-medium range
of comparable studies
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
12. AGRICULTURE IS
A HUGE UNDER-UTILIZED RESOURCE
The agricultural powerhouses have enough biomass for a good realistic
scenario on car fleet mix
Million
dry tons
250
200
Five major
150 crops represent
88% of the 24
crops
analysed, totalli
100
ng 800m tonnes
in 2030
available for
50
advanced
biofuels
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Maize residue Rice residue Other residues
Wheat residue Sugarcane residue Soybean residue
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
13. THE RESIDUE POTENTIAL IS HUGE
2030 figures
agricultural
residues only
2.5% POWER
5% HUSBANDRY
17.5% 914 million tonnes of residues will be available
75%
RESIDUES LEFT in eight selected regions and can replace
ON FIELD
half of the gasoline needs
14. PRODUCTION POTENTIAL BY 2030
LOWERING FOSSIL FUEL IMPORT BILL
10% of gasoline could be replaced by
advanced biofuels by using only 5% of
Argentina 1 7 the available agricultural residue supply
50% of the forecast 2030 gasoline
Australia 3 7
demand could be replaced by advanced
biofuels using only 20% of agricultural
India 4 37 residue
Mexico 8 8
Brazil 8 71
EU-27 9 60
China 24 89
United States 53 72
Bn. liters
10% blending scenario Residue Potential Scenario
Note: India and Argentina meet 100% of their gasoline requirements without using all their available
residues. Mexico uses all its residues before reaching 10%.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
15. • Biofuels is the only large-scale alternative
when it comes to transportation
• INVESTMENT IN
The technology is ready
BIOENERGY WILL BRING
• Biofuels is competitive to oil
ECONOMIC GROWTH
• AND DEVELOPMENT FOR
… and holds great potential in countries
resting on an agricultural base
RURAL AREAS
17. WHAT ARE THE
SUSTAINABILITY ASSUMPTIONS?
LAND USE In this study we assume land use patterns will not change before 2030;
PATTERNS existing activities are not altered nor is new agricultural land added
We assume a maximum of 17.5% is potentially available for bioenergy
HUMUS production; it is a conservative estimate which deliberately steers clear
BALANCE of removing a high level of nutrients. For sugarcane bagasse we assume
that 30% is used for advanced biofuels. The rest for bioelectricity
YIELD Our methodology assumes stable yield growth rates, based on historic
data between 1989 and 2010
GROWTH
ENERGY We excluded energy crops and forestry residues. Taking them into
CROPS account would however increase total biomass availability
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
18. WHAT ARE THE
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
PLANT We assume total facility costs for a next-generation ethanol
COSTS refinery will be approximately $1.50 per litre of annual capacity
ETHANOL For this example we used $0.44 per litre as it is roughly the
REVENUES energy equivalent price with an oil price of $100 per barrel
Following the EU Renewable Energy Directive indications, the
GHG study assumes next-generation ethanol, using the enzymatic
EMISSIONS hydrolysis technology, reduces emissions by 80%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
19. AGRICULTURAL RESIDUE AVAILABILITY
CHINA IN THE LEAD, 2030
The agricultural powerhouses still
Argentina 2 39 hold great potential. If next-
generation technologies fulfil
Australia 8 16 their promise then these
resources can be viewed in the
India 9 110 same terms as a barrel of oil
Mexico 20 20
Brazil 21 177
EU-27 22 151
China 60 221
United States 133 180
Million dry tons
Fuel Demand Residue Potential
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
20. REQUIRED INVESTMENTS WOULD
BOOST ECONOMY IN RURAL AREAS, 2030
Argentina 10 65 Total potential to generate
revenues of $1 trillion between
Australia 9 58 today and 2050 (Fuel Demand
Scenario) when assuming oil is
India 50 329
at $100 per barrel
Mexico 11 70
Brazil 94 622
EU-27 80 532
China 118 779
United States 96 633
Bn. USD
Investment Revenue
Note 1: Revenues are for delivered next-generation ethanol and are generated by plants throughout a 20-year lifetime.
Note 2: We assume total facility costs for a next-generation ethanol refinery will be approximately USD 1.50 per litre of annual capacity.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
21. JOB CREATION BY REGION
MILLION MAN YEARS OF EMPLOYMENT, 2030
Argentina 0.30
Harvesting a sustainable amount
of agricultural residue will provide
Australia 0.12 rural economies with an
additional revenue source that
India 0.08 0.91 will help diversify farmers’
income
Mexico 0.15
Brazil 0.15 1.25
EU-27 0.17 1.18
China 0.78 2.87
United States 1.02 1.37
Million
man-years
Fuel Demand Residue Potential
Note: Job creation, or one man-year of employment, in the
bioproduct industry comes in two parts: firstly, biorefinery
construction and operation jobs; and secondly, agricultural residue
supply chain jobs.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
22. JOB CREATION ACROSS THE
ADVANCED BIOFUELS SUPPLY CHAIN
COLLECTION TRANSPORT CONSTRUCTION CONVERSION
ETHANOL # OF REFINERIES
DEMAND
FEEDSTOCK INVESTMENT NEEDS
BIOMASS DEMAND
MIX ($BN)
CONVERSION AGRICULTURAL
EFFICIENCY RESIDUE
FEEDSTOCK TRANSPORT CONSTRUCTION OPERATION
JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
23. 25% OFF TRANSPORT EMISSIONS
WITH ADVANCED BIOFUELS
Million ton CO2
equivalent
2500
2000
Gasoline emissions
Fuel Demand Scenario
1500
Residue Potential Scenario
1000
Residue Potential
500
Scenario: 475 million
tons of CO2 less between
0 today and 2030. Equates
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 to not burning 2.6 million
railcars of coal
Note: EU sustainable transport group data demonstrates a litre of gasoline has a well-to-
wheel emissions footprint of 2.42kg per CO2e. Following the RED methodology, the
study assumes next-generation ethanol – using enzymatic hydrolysis – reduces
GHG emissions by 80%.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
24. WHAT’S IN IT FOR
THE WORLD
Agricultural
Energy Security Growth Jobs CO2
Residues
221 mio dry ton China could displace up to 37% of 779 bn USD 2.87 million man 29%
China its gasoline consumption in 2030 years
180 mio dry ton The US could displace up to 16% 663bn USD 1.37 million man 11%
US of its gasoline consumption in years
2030
177 mio dry ton Brazil could displace 83% of 622 bn USD 1.25 million man 67%
gasoline consumption in 2030. years
Brazil This is on top of sugarcane
ethanol
110 mio dry ton India could displace up to 100% 329 bn USD 0.91 million man 80%
of its gasoline consumption in years
India 2030 and still produce 4bn litres
for export
151 mio dry ton The EU27 could displace 532 bn USD 1.18 million man 54%
Europe 68% of its gasoline consumption years
in 2030
39 mio dry ton Argentina could replace up to 65 bn USD 0.30 million man 80%
100% of its gasoline consumption years
Argentina by 2030 and potentially export
ethanol
16 mio dry ton Australia could replace up to 19% 58 bn USD 0.12 million man 17%
Australia of its gasoline consumption by years
2030
20 mio dry ton Mexico could displace up to 7% of 70 bn USD 0.15 million man 5%
Mexico its gasoline consumption in 2030, years
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
25. WHAT’S IN IT FOR
BRAZIL?
Energy The Brazil can replace 83% of its annual gasoline
security consumption by 2030 with advanced biofuels
Create almost 1.25 million jobs between 2010
Jobs
and 2030 mainly in rural areas
Brazilian players would be the major
Economy beneficiaries, including 94 billion USD domestic
engineering, construction and feedstock market
Environ- Save CO2 and reducing GHG emission from
ment gasoline related road transport by 67%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
26. WHAT’S IN IT FOR
ARGENTINA?
Argentina can replace 100% of its annual gasoline
Energy consumption by 2030 with advanced biofuels and
security potentially export ethanol
Create almost 0.30 million jobs between 2010
Jobs
and 2030 mainly in rural areas
Argentine players would be the major
Economy beneficiaries, including 10 billion USD domestic
engineering, construction and feedstock market
Environ- Save CO2 and reducing GHG emission from
ment gasoline related road transport by 80%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012
27. WHAT’S IN IT FOR
MEXICO?
Mexico can replace 7% of its annual gasoline
Energy consumption by 2030 with advanced biofuels and
security potentially export ethanol
Create almost 0.15 million jobs between 2010
Jobs
and 2030 mainly in rural areas
Mexican players would be the major
Economy beneficiaries, including 11 billion USD domestic
engineering, construction and feedstock market
Environ- Save CO2 and reducing GHG emission from
ment gasoline related road transport by 5%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next-generation ethanol economy” 2012