This presentation was given as part of the Farming Futures workshop "Focus on: Renewables in the North-West". (11th December 2008)

1. An Overview of Climate Change
Alan Hopkins (GES Consulting)

2. Outline of talk
Climate change and greenhouse gases:
evidence of recent trends in climate change
and anticipated future trends.
Possible effects on agriculture and land use:
how resilient are we?

3. Adaptations and possible measures to reduce
climate change
Risks and uncertainties – need to plan ahead and
act now
Opportunities for UK farms and rural businesses

4. • Climate change and global warming
• The “Greenhouse effect”
• Greenhouse gases
• Climate change “scenarios”
• Adaptations and mitigations

5. Greenhouse gases
100-yr GWP Concentrations now
(and 200 years ago)
………………………………..………..
• CO2 1 374 ppm (280)
• Methane 23 1745 ppb (700)
• Nitrous oxide 300 314 ppb (270)
• CFCs 4000 268 ppt (zero)

6. Agriculture’s contribution to
greenhouse gas emissions in UK
• 1% of carbon dioxide (fuels and fertilisers).
• > 30% of methane (enteric fermentation /
manure management; mainly cattle /sheep)
• > 60% nitrous oxide (soils and fertilisers).
• 7% direct greenhouse gas emissions in UK
• UK agriculture part of the problem but is
part of the solution

7. Anticipated 21st century climate change
impacts
• Annual rainfall similar to past, but more wetter
winters and summer droughts .
• Continuing trend of higher average
temperatures (1-5o C higher).
• Regional variations: warming greatest in SE.
• More variability in winds, storms and droughts.
• Internationally: impacts greater in other parts
of Europe and some feed exporting areas.
• …specifically in the NW

11. Likely climate change impacts and
adaptations for different sectors
• How resilient are the various sectors of
UK farming ?
• What responses can farmers make to
climate change ?
• What are the international impacts ?

12. 1). Forage production and ruminant livestock:
risks and opportunities
• Changes in rainfall will affect grazing, summer
feed and timing of field operations.
• Higher temperatures and CO2 can lead to
increased forage growth.
• New opportunities (legumes, maize, whole-
crop) and some on-farm potential for energy
cropping and AD.
• But: heat stress, increased winter wind speed,
and risks from more extreme events require
management responses.

13. 1). Forage production and ruminant livestock
• Changes in rainfall will affect grazing, summer feed
and timing of field operations.
• Higher temps and CO2 increase forage growth.
• New opportunities (legumes, maize, whole-crop) and
some on-farm potential for energy cropping and AD.
• But: heat stress, increased winter wind speed, and
risks from more extreme events require
management responses.
• Overall: UK dairy, beef and sheep have good
potential to adapt to effects of future climate
change compared with some competitors.

14. 2) UK arable cropping systems: risks and
opportunities
• Warmer, drier summers: increased drought stress
(especially for root crops) and earlier maturation.
• Risks of damage from increased storminess
(standing crops, farm buildings).
• Wetter winters and storms: establishment of winter-
sown crops and fields ops in general; soil erosion
and nutrient losses. Flooding and coastal losses.
• New pests and diseases and earlier attacks.

15. UK arable cropping systems: potential for
responses and adaptations
• New crops and varieties.
• Precision Conservation Management.
• Risk management (e.g. mix of crops, managing
water supplies; flood, storm and drought plans)
and need to maintain soil structure and carbon.
• Biomass planting and carbon sequestration.
• Overall: UK arable farms have potential to adapt
to effects of future climate change. Major concerns
of coastal land and flood plains and of soils with
poor structure and low organic matter.

16. Likely future pressures for farmers
to mitigate impacts of climate
change: what are the options ?
• Improved management of manures, fertiliser, soil
and water to conserve water supplies, protect soil
quality and reduce net gaseous emissions.
• Increase carbon sequestration in soils, grass and
other farmland vegetation (possibly with future
carbon emissions trading).
• Renewable energy crops to displace fossil fuels and
at same time remove GHGs from atmosphere.
• Many low-cost options can be implemented now.

17. Management to mitigate greenhouse
gas emissions: CO2
• Energy plan to improve energy efficiency on the farm,
per unit of output.
• Maximize returns of manure and carbon to improve
soil organic matter.
• On mixed farms maintain existing permanent pasture,
and incorporate forage leys and reduced tillage where
possible.
• Optimise nutrient N inputs for feed crops aiming to
minimise mineral N fertiliser use.
• Consider potential for biomass or biofuel crops, or of
trees, hedges, scrub etc on any unproductive sites,
ground-source heat.

18. Management to mitigate greenhouse
gas emissions: methane
• Reduce emissions from manure through better
management (oxygen supply/ covers)
• Consider using manure in anaerobic digestion
as energy source – potentially very important in
future.
• Diet change (cattle, reduce emissions from
enteric fermentation through diet change,
rumen manipulation, or systematic changes)
incentives needed here.

19. Management to mitigate greenhouse
gas emissions: nitrous oxide
• Improving fertilizer efficiency, especially of
nitrates.
• Optimizing methods and timing of applications.
• Avoid bare ground after crops (use cover crops
to catch residual N).
• For cattle grazing: minimizing the grazing
period allows more control of manure.

20. New farm-scale opportunities?
• UK more resilient than some other areas, so global
effects on world agriculture could benefit UK farmers.
• Some benefits from climate change from milder
“average” climate and increased CO2.
• New crops, including biofuels and industrial crops,
and longer growing season in some areas.
• Climate Change Levy Rebate.
• Legumes to offset artificial N inputs (£ savings).
• Carbon trading for C storage in soils
• On-farm energy production.
• Reduce methane emissions from livestock manures
through anaerobic digestion.

21. Conclusions
• Convergence of food economy and energy economy,
plus wider environmental goals → need for integrated
approaches. Global effects on world agriculture, and
energy security issues will benefit UK farmers.
• Potential for increased yields of crops and forages, but
regional problems of droughts and coastal areas and
flood plains vulnerable.
• Uncertainties remain. Consensus that we plan to
adapt to anticipated change and to mitigate the
probable causes (GHGs) at the farm scale.
• Plan for uncertainties through more home produced
feeds, mix of crops and harvest / sowing times. Multi-
purpose land use and on-farm energy production.
.