The Changing U.S. Economy What Does It Mean For Oklahoma 1204061840

The Changing U.S. Economy: What Does It Mean for Oklahoma? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Governor’s Council for Workforce and Economic Development April 10, 2006

I. The U.S. Industrial Structure of the Future

The structure of the U.S. economy will change over the next 5-10 years. Why? ,[object Object],Because it always has. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The longer answer includes several inter-related factors: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],How will the structure of the U.S. economy change over the next 5-10 years? ,[object Object],[object Object]

15 U.S. industries projected to ADD jobs the fastest through 2014* ,[object Object],Business services 3. Management consulting services 5. Facilities support services 6. Employment services 7. Office administrative services 13. Accounting, tax, & payroll services High-tech services 2. Software publishers 8. Computer systems design Health and social services 1. Home health care services 4. Residential care facilities 9. Outpatient & laboratory services 10. Child day care services 12. Offices of health practitioners 15. Rehabilitation services Education services 11. Other educational services 14. Colleges & universities Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 U.S. industries projected to SHED jobs the fastest through 2014* ,[object Object],Nondurable manufacturing 1. Cut and sew apparel mfg. 2. Fabric mills 3. Basic chemical mfg. 6. Rubber product mfg. 8. Synthetic materials mfg. 13. Pulp & paper mills 14. Petroleum & coal mfg. Durable manufacturing 4. Industry machinery mfg. 5. Electrical equipment mfg. 7. Foundries 10. Computer mfg. 12. Metalworking machinery mfg. 15. Other machinery mfg. Natural resources 9. Sawmills & wood preservation 11. Crop production Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

II. Industrial Structure and Future Oklahoma Job and Income Growth

[object Object],How much impact does a changing U.S. industrial structure have on state job growth? ,[object Object]

Annual employment growth, 2004-2014 if states’ industries grow at projected national rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1.30%-1.50% 1.20%-1.29% 1.11%-1.19% 0.98%-1.10%

The 10 industries contributing the most to differences between OK and US projections Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Small Positive Semiconductor & electronic mfg. 10 Large Negative Support activities for mining 9 Large Negative Federal government 8 Small Negative Educational services 7 Large Negative Nonagriculture self-employed workers 6 Large Positive Employment services 5 Small Positive Cut and sew apparel mfg. 4 Small Negative Computer systems design 3 Large Negative Oil and gas extraction 2 Large Negative Agricultural products (grain, livestock) 1 Presence? Contribution? Industry or Small Negative Due to Large Positive or

Oklahoma City is projected to have a higher share of the long-term job growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent

The net effect of expected changes in the mix of jobs is to raise average salaries in OK Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. and Oklahoma job growth is projected to be fastest among high-paying occupations Projected Annual Job Growth by Average Pay Through 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

III. Meeting Oklahoma’s Future Workforce Needs

From 1994-2004, OK met its employment demand largely by population growth… Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Average annual growth in employment and working age population, 1994-2004 Percent

… but also by increased labor force participation Oklahoma United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Meeting future job demand could be a little tougher Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Projected annual growth in employment and working age population, 2004-2014 Percent

Non-metro Oklahoma may have an advantage: an untapped labor supply Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Oklahoma must ensure potential workers obtain the training necessary to succeed Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Oklahoma’s share of college graduates is slightly lower than in the U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Changing U.S. Economy What Does It Mean For Oklahoma 1204061840

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The Changing U.S. Economy What Does It Mean For Oklahoma 1204061840