This document discusses the potential for increasing wheat production in sub-Saharan Africa to reduce dependence on imports and meet growing demand. It finds that many countries have suitable agro-ecologies for competitive wheat production. However, constraints include perceptions that wheat is not suitable for Africa, lack of farmer awareness, subsidized imports, lack of mechanization and research capacity. The document calls for a paradigm shift in policies to recognize opportunities, pilot projects to identify suitable varieties, and addressing knowledge gaps such as detailed profitability studies and constraints to smallholder wheat production.

1. Wheat for Africa: Potentials
and Challenges for Harnessing
Opportunities
Bekele Shiferaw, Jawoo Koo; Victor
Kommerell, Wilfred Mwangi, Hans J Braun,
Bekele Abeyo, Thomas Payne
http://wheat.org/
CRP Wheat contact: Victor Kommerell, Program Manager:
v.kommerell@cgiar.org
Wheat for Africa study: Bekele Shiferaw
b.shiferaw@cgiar.org
Africa Agriculture Science
Week 2013

2. Outline
1. Making the case for Wheat for Africa (W4A)
• Context: CAADP-CGIAR dialogue, W4A Conference
• Widening gap and challenges to food security
2. Can SS Africa produce some of its requirements to
reduce dependence on imports?
3. How large is the potential and what are the key
challenges?
4. What’s needed now: National/regional
commitments & W4A investment options for
international donors
5. Proposed entry points and call for action

3. Context: CAADP-CGIAR Dialogue
 Dublin Process: Greater
connectivity and focus between
CAADP and the CGIAR Research
Programs
 Formulation of an African owned
and led Science Agenda for
African Agriculture
 Seek joint funding for priority
programs
 CGIAR-CAADP MoU signed in Jan
2013
 CAADP Partnership Platform W4A
side event 25-26 March 2013
Aligning continental, national and international agricultural research for dev

4. The Case for W4A: African Researchers and
Policymakers say Yes!
 2006: Abuja Food Security Summit defines African strategic
crops – but wheat not among them
 Oct ‘11: CRP Wheat MC opts for regional stakeholder
meeting in Africa in 2012
 Ethiopian MoA/EIAR, AUC & CGIAR Centers behind CRP
Wheat (CIMMYT, ICARDA, IFPRI) decide to go for Pan-
African wheat science and policy conference
 Oct ‘12: Wheat for Food Security in Africa Conference ends
with Declaration: Wheat is a strategic crop for Africa!
 End Nov ‘12: JMCAT (African Union Joint Ministerial
Conference of MoA and Trade) endorses the Declaration
 What next?

5. http://wheat.org

6. Wheat Production, demand and imports
Region Total
production
million
tons)
Total
consumpti
on (million
tons)
Per capita
production
(kg/year)
Per capita
consump-
tion (kg/
year)
Quantity of
import
(million
tons)
Value of
import
(billion
dollars)
Wheat self-
sufficiency
(%)
Eastern
Africa
3.62 7.9 11.2 26.2 4.8 1.6 39.8
Central
Africa
0.02 1.4 0.2 11.6 0.9 0.3 0.6
West
Africa
0.09 5.9 0.3 19.6 5.4 1.8 1.2
Northern
Africa
17.69 34.2 84.6 168.4 23 8 50.7
Southern
Africa
1.83 3.5 31.6 62 1.6 0.6 57.5
SS Africa 5.55 20.4 6.9 24.9 12.7 4.8 29
Africa 23.24 52.9 22.8 53.8 35.7 12.3 40.2

7. Average annual total wheat demand
growth rates (%)
Region 1961-
1970
1971 -
1980
1981 -
1990
1991 -
2000
2001 -
2009
1961 -
2009
E&S Africa with RSA 5.12 3.19 3.34 3.76 5.79 4.19
E&S Africa without RSA 6.29 3.44 3.87 4.36 7.63 5.04
Western & Central Africa 9.44 11.45 -0.62 9.93 4.74 6.98
North Africa 3.60 6.08 3.45 1.29 2.20 3.34
Developing countries 5.34 5.28 3.09 2.74 1.37 3.57
Developed countries 4.01 1.21 1.79 -1.71 0.69 1.15
World 4.47 2.84 2.37 0.61 1.03 2.24

8. 40
50
60
70
80
90
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
East Africa
-20
0
20
40
60
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Middle Africa
40
50
60
70
80
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
North Africa
50
100
150
200
250
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Southern Africa
0
5
10
15
20
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
West Africa
40
50
60
70
80
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Africa
Source: Prepared by authors based on FAOSTAT database.
for selected regions in Africa (1961-2010)
Trends in wheat self-sufficiency ratio

9. 21.6
58.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Production Total demand
Widening Gap: per capita production and demand
for wheat in Africa (kg/year)
Africa
6.9
36.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Production Total demand
SS Africa

10. -12.3
-38.1
-8.0
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Maize Wheat Rice
Import of main cereals into Africa (million tons)
0.0
-13.8
-8.0
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Maize Wheat Rice
Africa SS Africa

11. Major wheat importers
0.32 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.44 0.52 0.55 0.84 1.00 1.24
1.70 1.71 1.84 1.91
3.24
3.97
5.06
10.59
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Net imports (million tons), 2010

12. Feasibility study
1. How large is the potential?
Assess to what extent domestic
wheat production in SS Africa
would be economically
profitable and competitive to
imports.
2. Constraints for harnessing
the potential for import
substitution
3. Policy implications for
African governments on
strategic role of wheat

13. Computation of net economic return (NER) for
estimating import competitiveness
The NER computed at the pixel level:
NER=P*Y-TVC
Where
P*Y is the gross farm return (US$/ha);
P is the pixel level adjusted IPP (import parity price) for wheat
(US$/kg);
Y is the adjusted pixel level simulated wheat yield
(kg/ha), adjusted downward by 10%
TVC is the pixel level variable cost (US$/ha) including import parity
fertilizer costs and interest on working capital

14. Rainfed Wheat Suitability
Map: IIASA FAO GAEZ
Case study countries for
the feasibility study

15. Country Average
(kg/ha)
Angola 1055
Burundi 2886
Ethiopia 2348
Kenya 3087
Madagascar 2175
Mozambique 1052
Rwanda 3681
Tanzania 1986
DRC 1655
Uganda 2861
Zambia 1462
Zimbabwe 911
Yield under low
intensification (all pixels)

16. Country Average
(kg/ha)
Angola 1542
Burundi 3208
Ethiopia 2972
Kenya 3410
Madagascar 2605
Mozambique 1287
Rwanda 3986
Tanzania 2219
DRC 2059
Uganda 3383
Zambia 1933
Zimbabwe 1394
Yield under medium
intensification (all pixels)

17. Country Average
(kg/ha)
Angola 1886
Burundi 3395
Ethiopia 3395
Kenya 3617
Madagascar 2874
Mozambique 1444
Rwanda 4151
Tanzania 2372
DRC 2325
Uganda 3728
Zambia 2252
Zimbabwe 1744
Yield under High
intensification (all pixels)

18. NER under Low
intensification (for pixels
NER>0)
Country Average NER
(US$/ha)
Pixels with
positive NERs
(%)
Angola 195 22
Burundi 905 100
Ethiopia 618 71
Kenya 802 91
Madagascar 524 73
Mozambique 111 15
Rwanda 1314 96
Tanzania 347 68
DRC 270 53
Uganda 742 99
Zambia 301 63
Zimbabwe 250 35

19. Country Average
NER
(US$/ha)
Pixels with
positive
NERs (%)
Angola 250 28
Burundi 1010 100
Ethiopia 670 88
Kenya 885 92
Madagascar 651 76
Mozambique 128 19
Rwanda 1416 96
Tanzania 371 70
DRC 275 71
Uganda 898 100
Zambia 385 80
Zimbabwe 271 58
NER under Medium
intensification (for pixels
NER>0)

20. Country Average
NER
(US$/ha)
Pixels with
positive
NERs (%)
Angola 275 32
Burundi 1061 100
Ethiopia 771 90
Kenya 931 92
Madagascar 731 76
Mozambique 145 21
Rwanda 1461 96
Tanzania 384 71
DRC 302 76
Uganda 994 100
Zambia 444 86
Zimbabwe 309 76
NER under High
intensification (for pixels
NER>0)

21. Potential area (>$200/ha) and production
(medium level of intensification)
Area (million ha) Production (million tons)
10% 25% 10% 25%
Mozambique 0.1 0.26 0.27 0.67
Burundi 0.14 0.34 0.45 1.11
Rwanda 0.14 0.36 0.61 1.51
Uganda 0.2 0.51 0.69 1.72
DRC 0.25 0.62 0.76 1.89
Kenya 0.67 1.67 2.65 6.63
Zimbabwe 0.81 2.03 1.72 4.3
Angola 0.92 2.31 2.67 6.67
Tanzania 1.21 3.02 3.62 9.05
Madagascar 1.27 3.17 4.74 11.85
Zambia 1.73 4.32 4.26 10.64
Ethiopia 2.6 6.5 9.42 23.55
All 10.04 25.11 31.86 79.59

22. Competitiveness with other crops
Country Crop
Average NER for wheat
competing crops
<200 USD/ha
(% pixels or hhs)
>200 USD/ha
(% pixels or hhs)
Kenya Wheat 803 19.0 81.0
Maize (N=607) 165 67.1 32.9
Beans (N=593) 117 75.5 24.5
Tanzania Wheat 212 50.7 49.3
Maize (N=699) 186 70.1 29.9
Beans (N=373) 147 78.3 21.7
Pigeonpea (N=266) 139 80.5 19.5
Ethiopia Wheat 570 24.4 75.6
Maize (N=2373) 231 65.7 34.3
Beans (N=587) 580 28.1 71.9
White teff (N=718) 188 62.7 37.3
Barley (N=333) 144 80.1 19.9
Sorghum (N=786) 134 82.4 17.6
Malawi Maize (N=1906) 114 76.9 23.1
Groundnut (N=1201) 170 73 27
Sweet potatoes (N=204) 349 59.7 40.7
Tomatoes (N=163) 549 60.7 39.3
Tobacco (N=568) 608 59.9 40.1

23. Constraints to wheat in SS Africa
• Perception that wheat is not for SS Africa: cannot
competitively produce wheat (under-funded and under-
invested crop)
• Imperfect information and inadequate awareness by
farmers and policy makers
• Subsidized and cheap imports that undermine domestic
production
• Cultural and social factors – lack of prior experience by
smallholder farmers
• Lack of mechanization – production, harvesting, threshing
• Lack of capacity - research, production and value chain
development

24. Conclusions
• Strong emerging evidence of large underutilized potential for
economically profitable wheat production to meet the
growing consumption demand
• Variable potential - many countries (but not all) have suitable
agro-ecologies for competitive wheat production
• Results are generally robust to plausible shocks
– Low world prices of wheat and high fertilizer costs will reduce
the relative competitiveness of domestic production
– Investment in R&D to increase yields and to reduce domestic
production and marketing costs will increase it
• The limiting factors for wheat in Africa seem to be less of
agro-ecological and more of socio-cultural, institutional and
policy impediments.

25. Targeting opportunities for
wheat in Africa: Entry points
and priority actions
Bekele Shiferaw, Victor Kommerell
and Wilfred Mwangi

26. Outline
1. What’s needed now: National/regional
commitments & W4A investment options for
international donors
2. Knowledge gaps
3. Current investments
4. Entry points
5. Proposed next steps and call for action

27. What Africa needs now to harness this
potential?
• Paradigm shift – policy dialogue and conversation on
potential opportunities (rainfed/irrigated)
• Action plan will vary by country/region
– Assess current limiting constraints in farming systems and
market access challenges
– Tradeoffs and synergies with other crops grown by farmers
– Crop-livestock integration and rotation with legumes
– Strategy for small vs. medium and large scale farmers
– Combine intensification and extensification options
• Pilot projects and adaptive research to identify suitable
and market preferred varieties in different agro-ecologies

28. Knowledge gaps
1. Detailed wheat profitability potential studies (rain-fed and irrigated),
beyond modelling-based projections developed in 2012
2. Understand constraints to smallholder wheat production -
mechanization, markets, cultural, policy, etc
3. Investigate wheat-related trade/value chain obstacles & opportunities
at regional level: Baseline for developing African common market for
wheat & other food commodities
4. Wheat consumption trends in Africa (who, where, why) & projections
5. Address complex Agri-R4D challenges: Continental germplasm
exchange, multi-country/agro-eco zone breeding platforms, biomass
(ecological intensification, wheat alternative uses/livestock trade-offs)
6. Develop integrated wheat systems technologies for high potential
countries/regions
7. Investigate African wheat imports net winners and losers

29. Current W4A projects – good start
but far from requirements
29
Annual wheat improvement training
courses (CIMMYT); SARD-SC/Wheat
(ICARDA-led); Rust-related capacity
development (DRRW)
SARD-SC/Wheat, started 2013, 3 hubs with 12
SSA countries: agronomy ‘packages’; CD Seed on
mechanisation (Ethiopia, BMZ); FACASI on small-
scale mechanisation, starts 2013 (Ethiopia ;
ACIAR); ATA (83 Ethiopian districts with easy reach
wheat potential)
Accelerated variety release
(Ethiopia, USAID)
IWIN (WHEAT); EAPP (East
Africa, regional adaptation
trials); SARD-SC/Wheat
Durable Rust Resistance
Wheat project
(DRRW/BGRI)

30. Opportunities for increasing
production
• Evaluate alternative strategies for expansion
– Land surplus economies. e.g.
Mozambique, Zambia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Tanzania.
complementary investments in roads, irrigation, storage and
marketing systems.
– Land constrained economies: Limited expansion of wheat into new
areas for commercial production may be possible e.g. areas with good
market access, e.g. densely populated highland regions of
Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia and parts of Tanzania and Uganda
consider integrating wheat into existing faming systems without
necessarily crowding out other profitable crops.
• Both smallholder and large-scale commercial
production
• Rainfed and irrigated systems

31. Proposed action plan: key entry points
Target region/typology Key challenges and investment priorities Potential donors
1. Countries where
smallholder production exists
- Integrated interventions
for improving productivity
and sustainability (e.g.
Ethiopia, Tanzania, Burundi,
Rwanda, Burundi)
• Close yield gap
• Improve service delivery (extens, credit, storage,
etc)
• Seed delivery, agronomy, intensification and
systems
• Enhance value chains and profitability of wheat
• Marketing, quality and processing
GoV, BMGF, AfDB,
CIDA, SIDA, DIFID,
IFAD, USAID, etc
2. Countries with potential
but limited smallholder
production – Test and validate
competitiveness of wheat (e.g.
Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Angola,
Malawi, Mozambique, etc.)
• On-farm trials with varieties, agronomy, etc
• Test competitiveness: Generate actual on-farm and
value chain data to see the case for competitiveness
with imports and other crops
• Policy recommendations on smallholder wheat
systems in Africa
GoV, BMGF, AfDB, etc
3. Integrated innovations and
investments for exploiting
irrigated systems (e.g. Nigeria,
Zambia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Mali,
etc.)
• Overcoming soil salinity, heat tolerance, land
degradation, sustainable productivity growth
• Enhance value chains and profitability of wheat
• Marketing, quality and processing
Nigeria, Sudan,
Zambia, AfDB, BMZ,
etc

32. Concrete next steps (our ideas)
1. Consider wheat in the CAADP National Agricultural Investment
Plans
2. Build on the AfDB funded SARD-SC project to validate potentials
and build the proof of concept in selected target countries
3. Initiate dialogue with development investors and stakeholders on
strategies for reducing import dependence
4. Regional platforms for data collection:
– Gather high quality data and share with governments and development
investors
– Regional phenotyping platform: 2 – 3 locations in Africa to observe
yield and heat & drought tolerance
5. Establish Partnership for Wheat Development in Africa (W4AC) –
continental platform for spearheading the advocacy and
implementation of the W4A strategy.

33. Thank you for your
attention! Your questions
and comments, please
http://wheat.org/
Victor Kommerell, CRP Program
Manager: v.kommerell@cgiar.org
Africa Agriculture Science
Week 2013

34. Production and degree of self-sufficiency for wheat
in Africa (2008 - 2010)
Country Area (1000 ha) Production (1000
tons)
Self-sufficiency (%)
Morocco 2,896.0 5,005.7 60.71
Algeria 1,585.1 2,388.1 29.33
Ethiopia 1,520.7 2,725.4 64.33
Egypt 1,283.2 7,889.7 45.78
South Africa 649.5 1,839.3 59.50
Tunisia 585.2 1,131.6 40.93
Sudan 308.8 543.9 25.38
Kenya 140.6 356.0 40.12
Libya 133.3 105.0 6.71
Tanzania 49.0 92.9 11.00
Rwanda 48.1 72.5 73.01
Nigeria 34.7 51.3 1.40
Others 141.8 340.9 5.24
Africa 9,376.0 22,542.3 40.2

35. Annex: Sources of wheat imports – SSA big 5 (2000-10)
Source: FAOSTAT Trade database
Importing country
Share of total imports from source country
Source country Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria RSA Sudan All 5
Argentina 0.0% 22.3% 8.9% 31.2% 5.4% 15.0%
Australia 1.0% 6.6% 0.7% 9.1% 44.6% 7.8%
Belgium 0.0% 0.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
Bulgaria 8.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%
Canada 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% 8.0% 25.7% 5.5%
Germany 0.7% 2.5% 0.3% 22.0% 0.0% 6.4%
Italy 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.8%
Pakistan 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1.2%
Russian
Federation
0.9% 16.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 3.3%
Ukraine 4.4% 18.7% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 4.4%
USA 48.9% 7.7% 57.9% 20.6% 6.0% 33.8%
Other countries 13.6% 16.4% 17.0% 6.7% 14.5% 13.3%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

36. Wheat becoming #1 staple in many places
36
 Lusaka, Zambia – 2007/08
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 2 3 4 5 Total
%ofwheat+maize+riceexpenditures
Consump on quin le
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Source: Mason & Jayne (2009)
Similar patterns:
Kitwe, Zambia
Nairobi, Kenya
Maputo, Mozambique

37. Growth rates in per capita wheat
consumption (%)
Region
1961 -
1970
1971 -
1980
1981 -
1990
1991 -
2000
2000 -
2009
1961 -
2009
E&S Africa with RSA 2.45 0.69 0.62 1.29 1.63 1.31
E&S Africa without
RSA
3.65 0.90 0.84 1.76 2.64 1.91
Western and Central
Africa
6.81 8.45 -3.27 6.97 2.02 4.19
North Africa 1.11 3.60 0.62 -0.57 0.50 1.06
Developing countries 3.13 3.31 1.02 0.64 -0.33 1.56
Developed countries -0.70 -0.37 0.16 -0.58 -0.21 -0.33
World 0.49 1.28 0.49 0.04 -0.38 0.40

38. Average annual total wheat demand
growth rates (%)
Region 1961-
1970
1971 -
1980
1981 -
1990
1991 -
2000
2001 -
2009
1961 -
2009
E&S Africa with RSA 5.12 3.19 3.34 3.76 5.79 4.19
E&S Africa without RSA 6.29 3.44 3.87 4.36 7.63 5.04
Western & Central Africa 9.44 11.45 -0.62 9.93 4.74 6.98
North Africa 3.60 6.08 3.45 1.29 2.20 3.34
Developing countries 5.34 5.28 3.09 2.74 1.37 3.57
Developed countries 4.01 1.21 1.79 -1.71 0.69 1.15
World 4.47 2.84 2.37 0.61 1.03 2.24

39. Drivers of growing demand
• Population growth
• Income growth
• Urbanization
• Female employment and opportunity
cost of time
• Declining international prices relative
to other staples
• Globalization and changing lifestyles