2016 san diego and national economic update march 9 2016

2016 Comprehensive
Economic Update.
Evan Donaldson, CEO
Presented at the PMI 03/10/16

Introductions
Evan Donaldson
CEO for Talentry, So. Cal. Professional since 1985
• Provided professional services and consulting solutions saving companies millions of dollars
• Software, web, and mobile app development
• Systems evaluation, architecture, and implementation
• Recognized as an expert on maximizing outcomes through people and process
• Placed hundreds of professionals in the San Diego, Orange County, and national market
• Extensive experience with training, employer branding, and designing elegant and novel solutions
• Twitter: @Evanduz – Please tweet!
• LinkedIn: if you connect with me, you will have access to these presentations
• I also curate a LinkedIn group: San Diego TechExec Group, where I publish and forward things of
interest
• THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR
ANY ACTION TAKEN AS A RESULT OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN
www.talentry.net

Talentry overview
! Talentry is a Professional Services, Project Management, Training, and Staff Augmentation
company based in San Diego, CA
! Talentry’s employees are tenured solutions providers, with deep networks, and extensive
client successes.
! Together we provide solutions focused on the intersection of people and technology, with a
focus on IT, Scientific, and Engineering professionals.
! Call us when you:
! Need a professional to help assess your technology and recommend or architect a vendor neutral solution
! Have systems that don’t work together
! Need new highly qualified technical staff
! Feel your vendors are “squeezing” you
! Have a client deadline that you are worried about meeting
! Need to develop software
! Want to go to the cloud
www.talentry.net

Economic Trends
www.talentry.net

•  Consumer Price Index (CPI): (measures changes in the price level
of consumer goods and services purchased by households.)
+ Unch in Jan 2016 -0.1% Dec 2015 (+ 0.3%
minus food/energy. +0.2% Dec)
•  Unemployment Rate:
4.9% in Feb (-0.2%) - +555k people in Feb
•  Payroll Employment:
+242,000 in Feb (Avg +250k ttm) Health care,
social assistance, retail, food services. Mining (-)
•  Average Hourly Earnings:
+0.4% from Dec to Jan ($25.35 private Feb, up
from $24.80 private Feb 2015 )
•  Producer Price Index (PPI): (measures average changes in prices
received by domestic producers for their output.)
+0.1% in Jan 2016. Prices for services +0.5%,
goods -0.7%.
www.talentry.net

•  Employment Cost Index (ECI): (quarterly economic series detailing the changes in the
costs of labor for businesses in the United States economy)
+0.6% in 4th Qtr. of 2015
•  Productivity: real output / hours worked
- 2.2%% in 4th Qtr. of 2015 Output increased 1%, hours worked 3.2%
•  U.S. Import Price Index: Tracks changes in the prices paid for goods imported to the United
States . The figure is significant in relation to the trade balance, the difference between the total value of
exports and the total value of imports. A positive trade balance (surplus) acts as an appreciating weight on the
dollar, reflecting demand for dollars in exchange for exports. Conversely, a negative value (deficit) puts
downward pressure on the dollar's value
-1.1% in June 2015 – primarily fuel-driven
•  U.S. Export Price Index: Tracks price changes of U.S. export goods. The figure is used to
determine whether a change in the headline Export figure is representative of an increase of goods sold to
foreign nations or just an increase in the price of export goods
-0.8% in June 2015 - primarily fuel-driven
www.talentry.net

But, not so
fast on the
employment
celebration:
www.talentry.net

How
about
this
one?
www.talentry.net

Retail Sales:
U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in Dec (and up 3.4% over the previous Dec.)
Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores up 9.1%.
FOMC:
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) holds eight regularly
scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews
economic conditions to determine whether expansionary or contractionary
monetary policy is needed. It issues forecasts at four of those meetings.
January’s meeting: inflation is under the 2 percent objective, reflecting
declines in energy prices and non-energy imports. Decided to maintain the
target range for the federal funds rate at ¼ - ½ percent.
www.talentry.net

www.talentry.net
The six classifications of unemployment that the Bureau of Labor Statistics
tracks are:
•  U1 is Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
•  U2 is Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
•  U3 is Official unemployment rate per the International Labor Organization
definition. It occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively
looked for work within the past four weeks.
•  U4 is U3 + “discouraged workers”, or those who have stopped looking for
work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work
is available for them.
•  U5 is U4 + other “marginally attached workers”, or “loosely attached
workers”, or those who “would like” and are able to work, but have not looked
for work recently.
•  U6 is U5 + Part time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to
economic reasons, i.e. the economy is bad so their employer cut their hours
and they can’t find other work.

But production is very high:
www.talentry.net
The Industrial
Production
Index
(INDPRO) is an
economic
indicator that
measures real
output for all
facilities located
in the United
States
manufacturing,
mining, and
electric, and
gas utilities

And the market is highly valued:
www.talentry.net
Wilshire 5000
Total Market
Full Cap
Index

But not every market:
www.talentry.net

Housing prices have rebounded more than most people
think:
www.talentry.net

And household debt to income ration has come way down
(in the US:)
www.talentry.net

Broken out for mortgage (purple) vs consumer (gold):
www.talentry.net

And, what about OIL?
www.talentry.net

VISTAGE
CEO Confidence
Index
Q4 2015
SAN DIEGO (Dec. 15, 2015) — Good
news for job seekers – small and mid-
sized business owners are planning on
increasing their workforce in 2016,
according the
Vistage CEO Confidence Index Survey,
the largest survey of chief executives from
small and medium-sized businesses in the
U.S.
Among all firms surveyed, more than half
(55 percent) planned to increase their
workforce in 2016. Few firms reported that
they planned cutbacks in their total
employment, just 8 percent in the most
recent survey.
www.talentry.net

San Diego Trends
USD’s Burnham-Moores Center until Jan 2016
www.talentry.net

February 29, 2016 -- The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real
Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County
was unchanged in January. The advancing and declining components
were even at three apiece, and each side featured one very large
increase along with two smaller ones. On the upside, help wanted
advertising was the big mover, with smaller gains in building permits
and initial claims for unemployment insurance. On the downside, the
biggest decliner was local stock prices, with smaller losses in
consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. The
unchanged result in January broke a string of three consecutive
increases for the Index.
San Diego Trends
www.talentry.net

Because of January’s unchanged reading in the USD Index, the outlook for
the local economy remains unchanged from what was previously reported:
Positive growth in the local economy for 2016, although somewhat slower
than in 2015. Boosting the economy will be low gas prices and relatively low
interest rates. Also, the strong job growth in 2015 (more than 40,000 wage
and salary jobs added) will provide some momentum, as more employment
means more income, which leads to more spending, which in turn leads to
even more employment. On the downside is turmoil and weakness in the
global economy. Of particular concern is China, which has to deal with an
implosion in its stock market, a potential real estate bubble, weakness in its
financial sector, and a restructuring of its economy away from export-fueled
growth to a more consumer and consumption oriented economy.
San Diego Trends
www.talentry.net

Initial claims for unemployment insurance have now
declined for three months in a row, which is a positive
for the Index. Help wanted advertising has matched
that and is now at its highest level since November
2007. Consumer confidence dropped for the third
month in a row, although none of the drops was large.
Turmoil in the stock market would be one of the
contributors to the decline. . . Local stock prices
followed the broader market averages and plummeted
in January.
San Diego Trends
www.talentry.net

Q&A, further discussion.
Contact information:
•  Evan Donaldson
•  Edonaldson@Talentry.net
•  619-227-5858
•  @Evanduz
Talentry, LLC., an organization that supplies consulting, training,
headhunting, workforce optimization analysis, staff augmentation, and
project management for companies dedicated to maximizing their
effectiveness by enhancing their biggest asset - their people.
www.talentry.net

Brief communication supplement:
www.talentry.net
Communication

www.talentry.net
Evan’s thoughts:
1.  WHAT PROBLEM ARE WE TRYING TO SOLVE?
2.  People don’t prepare by asking what they want out of the
communication beforehand.
3.  People definitely don’t prepare by asking what the other person
wants (or is likely to want)
4.  What is the minimum acceptable result from the communication?
5.  What problems/challenges/issues might come up?
6.  How will I deal with each problem and demonstrate the BENEFIT
from each one?
7.  How will I close?
This is called OUTCOME-BASED THINKING

www.talentry.net
Evan’s thoughts Cont’d:
8.  KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE
9.  Timing can be everything!
10.  Have a BHAG and a Minimum Acceptable Outcome established
ahead of time
11.  Use “AND” not “BUT.”
12.  Use the above to stay focused on the problem and the desired
outcome.
13.  Avoid emotional entanglements
14.  Use responses like “I see,” “Is that so?” “What makes you think/feel
that way?” “How did you arrive at that?” And, the big gun, the “five
why’s” (The golden key to root cause analysis…
Nail"shoe"horse"rider"battle"kingdom.)

www.talentry.net
It is important to remember that it should be “us against
the problem.”
ASK: “What problem are we trying to solve?”
CONSTANTLY go back to this, especially in potentially
volatile interactions.
5 Secrets of Effective Communication Skills – Benjamin Langley
1.  Feel the feelings you want to convey
2.  Match the energy/intensity/emotion of the audience
3.  Use as many mediums of communication as possible
4.  Let go of resistance
5.  Allow people to do it themselves

www.talentry.net
Each action should identify:
1.  Who is accountable
2.  Who is responsible
3.  What needs to be done
4.  How we will know it is done /
deliverable
5.  When it needs to be done

www.talentry.net
# S.M.A.R.T. Goals yield smart
outcomes! This is true in
communication as well!
# Specific
# Measurable
# Attainable
# Realistic
# Timed

www.talentry.net
An Aside on Email Etiquette!
1.  Write for the person reading, don’t reply all (unless approp.)
2.  CHANGE and put a CLEAR subject line
3.  Don’t overuse high priority!
4.  Use “No reply needed” “Jim, for your information. Jen,
please reply”
5.  Be brief and clear. Or else call, or stop by…
6.  State why the action will benefit the recipient.
7.  A quick personalization or friendly comment can soften the
tone.
8.  Use English, ditch stationary, avoid fonts/pictures (in
general)

www.talentry.net
An Aside on Email Etiquette!
9.  Minimize questions – but ask at least one if you need
information. Yes/No works WELL in emails
10. Specific calls to action work well.
11. Follow up on mistaken/incomplete emails – the “oops” helps!
12. CHANGE THE SUBJECT LINE (AGAIN!) don’t
reply to off-topic emails.

2016 san diego and national economic update march 9 2016

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2016 san diego and national economic update march 9 2016