Economic Development in Elmore County

1. Where we are now and how we get to where we want to be?
Ethan Mansfield
SW Idaho Regional Economist
Idaho Department of Labor
Economic Development in
Elmore County, Idaho

2. Outline
• What Does Elmore County Look like now?
• What is it projected to look like in the future?
• What are the Economic Development policy changes going forward
that might affect the county’s position in the future?

3. Source: EMSI
9.4
4.3
9.7
3.7
10
4.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unemployment Rates
Elmore County, Idaho and United States
2007-2015
Elmore Idaho US

4. Jobs and Wages
• Population = 25,876
• Idaho = 1,654,930
• Total Jobs = 11,335
• Idaho = 784,609
• Average Wage per Job = $39,346
• Idaho = $36,781
• Per Capita Income = $21,016
• Idaho = $28,555
• 2011-2016 Job Growth = 547
• Idaho = 85,459
• 2011-2015 Percent Job Growth = 5%
• Idaho = 12%

5. Live in Elmore County, Work in:
Elmore County, ID
42%
Ada County, ID
30%
Canyon County, ID
9%
Twin Falls County, ID
3%
Owyhee County, ID
2%
Other
14%

6. Work in Elmore County, Live in:
Elmore County, ID
63%
Ada County, ID
10%
Canyon County, ID
4%
Twin Falls County, ID
3%
Bonneville County, ID
3%
Other
17%

7. Description
2016
Jobs
2016
Wages
2011 - 2016
Change
2011 - 2016
% Change
Expected
Change
Competitive
Effect
2016 Location
Quotient
Government (incl. Public Ed) 5,434 $51,076 (344) (6%) 14 (358) 3.12
Health Care and Social Assistance 981 $29,816 480 96% 70 410 0.69
Retail Trade 968 $24,511 110 13% 65 45 0.82
Accommodation and Food Services 779 $13,047 32 4% 119 (86) 0.81
Crop and Animal Production 729 $29,829 24 3% 23 1 5.32
Manufacturing 587 $29,440 182 45% 22 161 0.65
Other Services (except Public
Administration)
338 $21,429 53 19% 2 51 0.63
Administrative and Support and
Waste Management and
Remediation Services
315 $45,797 51 19% 41 9 0.44
Construction 293 $29,402 (41) (12%) 51 (92) 0.48
Transportation and Warehousing 217 $42,528 27 14% 25 2 0.57
Finance and Insurance 164 $37,485 (13) (7%) 8 (21) 0.37
Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services
161 $35,808 16 11% 20 (4) 0.22
Wholesale Trade 77 $37,973 7 10% 4 3 0.18
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 76 $25,293 24 46% 5 19 0.41
Private Educational Services 73 $37,188 (69) (49%) 12 (81) 0.25
Information 64 $43,697 (18) (22%) 3 (21) 0.31
Utilities 45 $82,728 16 55% 1 14 1.10
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 28 $11,004 7 33% 3 4 0.15
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas
Extraction
<10 Insf. Data Insf. Data Insf. Data 0 4 0.12
Management of Companies and
Enterprises
<10 Insf. Data Insf. Data Insf. Data 0 0 0.00

10. -4.3
5.6
4.1
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Elmore County
Idaho
UNITED STATES
Percent Population Change
2010-2015

11. 22%
66%
12%
22%
64%
15%
19%
66%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0-14 15-64 65+
Age Distribution
2015
Elmore Idaho United States

12. 24%
19%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Elmore County Idaho UNITED STATES
Change in Percent 65 and Older
2010-2015

13. Elmore County:
• 22% of the working
population is above the
age of 55
• 6% of the working
population is above the
age of 65
Idaho State:
• 21% of the working
population is above the
age 55
• 5% of the working
population is above the
age of 65
9%
26%
43%
16%
6%
8%
28%
43%
16%
5%
14-21 22-34 35-54 55-64 65-99
WORKFORCE BY AGE COHORT
Elmore Co. Idaho

14. -17%
-9%
24%
21%
18%
27%
14% 14%
25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-14 15-64 65+
Projected Growth By Age Group
2015- 2025
Elmore SW Idaho Idaho

15. -1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2025 Projected Job Growth* Labor Force Growth**
Workforce
Gap
1,592
2,577
-985

16. NAICS Description 2016 Jobs 2015 - 2025 Change 2015 - 2025 % Change
62 Health Care and Social Assistance 981 576 64%
31 Manufacturing 587 338 62%
90 Government 5,434 140 3%
56
Administrative and Support and Waste
Management and Remediation Services
315 140 56%
44 Retail Trade 968 90 10%
72 Accommodation and Food Services 779 77 11%
11 Crop and Animal Production 729 75 10%
81
Other Services (except Public
Administration)
338 48 14%
54
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services
161 35 23%
48 Transportation and Warehousing 217 31 15%
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 76 24 31%
61 Educational Services 73 12 18%
42 Wholesale Trade 77 10 13%
71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 28 8 35%
51 Information 64 3 5%
22 Utilities 45 (1) (2%)
52 Finance and Insurance 164 (2) (1%)
23 Construction 293 (14) (5%)
21
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas
Extraction
<10 Insf. Data Insf. Data
55
Management of Companies and
Enterprises
<10 Insf. Data Insf. Data

17. $1,187 $1,212
$1,522
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
Elmore County Idaho UNITED STATES
Median Monthly Costs
Housing Units with a Mortgage
2014

18. $732 $738
$920
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
Elmore County Idaho UNITED STATES
Median Monthly Rent
2014

19. What Factors Contribute to Unequal
Economic Development across Space?
• Natural Amenities
• Cultural Amenities
• Human Capital (Workforce)
• Infrastructure
• Jobs follow people vs. people follow jobs?
• More support for jobs follow people in rural areas
• Tax Policy?

20. How Can we Help?
• Attract and Retain Talented Workers (or any workers)
• Choose Idaho campaign
• Local Policy that encourages workers to stay and attracts new ones (i.e. what
does your target audience want in a community?)
• Create Talent Pipelines within the community
• Amenities Matter to Migration
• What does a new generation look for?
• Infrastructure is important
• Physical Infrastructure
• Roads, Railways, Air Service
• Virtual Infrastructure
• Broadband

21. Thank You!
• Ethan Mansfield
• ethan.mansfield@labor.Idaho.gov
• Sources: Economic Modeling Specialists International; US Census
Bureau, County Quickfacts and Quarterly Workforce Indicators; Idaho
Department of Labor, Population Projections.