Presentación de Ernesto Cordero Arroyo sobre el crecimiento económico de América Latina. Dictada durante la Conferencia "The Rising Latino: Latinos in the United States and Latin America on the World Stage" en la Universidad de Harvard en Boston, Massachusetts.

1. LATIN AMERICA
ECONOMIC RISE
ERNESTO CORDERO-ARROYO
15th Annual Harvard Latino Law
Policy and Business Conference
April 13, 2012

2. 2
Latin America’s economic past was dominated
by financial crises
Financial crises in Latin America
Country Start year End year Crisis Type Net fiscal cost1 Output loss2 Policy Responses
1980 1982 Banking and currency 55% 11% Bank nationalization and liquidity-support measures
Argentina 1989 1991 Banking and currency 6% 11% Liquidity-support measures and partial deposit insurance
2001 2003 Banking, currency and debt 10% 43% Bank nationalization and liquidity-support measures
1986 1986 Banking N/A 49% Liquidity-support measures and partial deposit insurance
Bolivia Bank mergers, partial deposit insurance and purchase of bad
1994 1994 Banking 3% 0%
loans
1990 1993 Banking 0% 12% None
Brazil
1994 1998 Banking 10% 3% Government bond purchases and bank recapitalizations
Government bond purchases, bank recapitalizations and
Chile 1981 1985 Banking, currency and debt 17% 92%
mergers
1982 1982 Banking 5% 15% Bank nationalizations and recapitalization measures
Colombia
1998 2000 Banking 3% 34% Bank nationalizations and recapitalization measures
Ecuador 1998 2002 Banking and currency 16% 6% Bank nationalizations, mergers and government bond purchases
Jamaica 1996 1998 Banking 39% 30% Bank nationalizations, mergers and recapitalization measures
1981 1985 Banking, currency and debt N/A 27% Bank nationalizations and recapitalization measures
Mexico Liquidity measures, bank mergers and exchange rate
1994 1996 Banking and currency 18% 4%
liberalization
Panama 1988 1989 Banking 27% 85% Bank nationalizations and recapitalization measures
Paraguay 1995 1995 Banking 10% 0% Liquidity-support measures and partial deposit insurance
Peru 1983 1983 Banking 12% 55% Liquidity-support measures and bank nationalizations
Bank nationalizations, recapitalization measures and deposit
Uruguay 2002 2005 Banking, currency and debt 11% 29%
insurance
Venezuela 1994 1998 Banking and currency 13% 10% Government bond purchases, and partial deposit insurance
1)
Calculated as a percentage of GDP. 2 )
Represent the accumulated loss in real GDP during the crises’ period.
Sources: Laeven, Luc, and Fabian Valencia, 2008, “Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database.” IMF Working Paper 08/224. Washington: International Monetary
Fund. Laeven, Luc, and Fabian Valencia, 2010, “Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly .” IMF Working Paper 10/146. Washington:
International Monetary Fund.

3. 3
Latin America is becoming an important
economic player in the world
Contribution to Economic Growth Estimates per Region, 2012-
Growth, 2011 2013
(Percentage) (Percentage of GDP in real terms)
6.0
5.5
5.5 5.2
2012 2013
14% 5.0
4.5 4.3
4.0 4.1 4.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
86% 2.0 1.8
1.4
1.5
1.0
Latin North Europe Asia Rest of the
Latin America Rest of the World America America world
Source: Inter-American Development Bank. Source: Own estimates based on International Monetary Fund data.

4. 4
Macroeconomic prudence has been the basis
of Latin America’s economic rise
Fiscal Deficit, 2010 Inflation, 2010
35.0% 32.0% 6.0% 5.1%
4.7%
30.0% 5.0% 4.2%
4.0%
25.0%
3.0% 2.1%
20.0% 1.6%
2.0%
15.0% 10.5%
10.4% 9.3% 1.0%
10.0%
0.0%
5.0% 2.8% 2.8%
-1.0%
0.0% -2.0% -1.5%
Brazil Greece Ireland Spain Mexico USA Brazil Greece Ireland Spain Mexico USA
Change in Real GDP, 2010 Unemployment Rate, 2010
10.0% 25.0%
7.5% 20.1%
8.0%
5.4% 20.0%
6.0%
4.0% 3.0%
15.0% 12.5% 13.6%
2.0% 9.6%
0.0% 10.0%
6.7%
-0.4% -0.1% 5.4%
-2.0%
5.0%
-4.0%
-6.0% -4.3% 0.0%
Brazil Greece Ireland Spain Mexico USA Brazil Greece Ireland Spain Mexico USA
Source: International Monetary Fund and Mexico’s Ministry of Finance.

5. 5
Exports have contributed to improve economic
performance
Latin America's Total Exports
1,200
(2010 Constant Billion dollars, deflated by US CPI)
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

6. 6
Better economic performance has increased
development and income in Latin America
Human Development Growth of per Capita GDP
Index 2011 100%
(Percentage)
90%
Chile 0.805 80%
Argentina 0.797
Uruguay 0.783 70%
Cuba 0.776
Bahamas 0.771 60%
México 0.77
Panamá 0.768 50%
Rusia 0.755
Costa Rica 0.744 40%
Belice 0.741 30%
Venezuela 0.735
Jamaica 0.727 20%
Perú 0.725
Ecuador 0.72 10%
Brazil 0.718
Colombia 0.71 0%
Dominican… 0.689
Peru (1997-2003)
Chile (1990-2006)
Colombia (1991-2005)
Costa Rica (1990-2007)
Argentina (1990-2006)
Honduras (1990-2007)
Panama (1991-2007)
Brazil (1990-2007)
México (1989-2006)
Dominican Rep. (1997-2007)
China 0.687
Surinam 0.68
El Salvador 0.674
Paraguay 0.665
Bolivia 0.663
Guayana 0.633
Honduras 0.625
Sudáfrica 0.619
Nicaragua 0.589
Guatemala 0.574
India 0.547
Hatí 0.454
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Source:United Nations Development Programme. Source: Economic Commission for Latin America Review
103, April 2011.

7. 7
Short-Term Economic Challenges
Global Deceleration
US Exports Markets Diversification and Domestic Market
China Hedge Commodity Prices
Inflationary Pressures
Liquidity Stimulus Monetary Discipline
Countercyclical Policies Fiscal Consolidation
Stabilization Funds and Fiscal Rules
Financial System
Credit Expansion Prudential Regulation
Reversion of External Flows Development Banks
Europe Banking Supervision

8. 8
Sustainable and Inclusive Growth
Poverty and
Inequality Productivity
Reduction
Education Infrastructure Innovation
Cash Broader Tech Intensive
Conditional
Coverage Transport
Transfer R&D
Programs
Energy
Improve Agencies and
Social Safety Quality Telecomm Funds
Net
More Revenues used Effectively, Efficiently and Transparently

9. 9
Latin America is increasing its exports of
manufactured goods
Total Goods Exports for Selected Latin American Countries in
2010
(Percentage)
100%
90%
33% 30%
80%
50% 52%
70% 62%
60% 81%
50%
45%
40%
60%
30%
45%
47%
20% 36%
16% 25%
10%
5% 8%
0% 1% 2% 3%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru
Other Transactions Primary Products Manufactures
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America.

10. 10
The share of exports of technology
manufacture goods is increasing
Manufactured Goods Exports for Selected Latin American
Countries in 2010 (Percentage)
100%
3% 5%
5%
90% 2% 6%
10% 26%
80%
22% 19%
70%
60%
7%
50%
4% 6%
55% 37%
40% 24%
30%
15%
20% 21% 21%
9%
10%
9%
0%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru
Natural Resource-Based Low-Tech Medium-Tech High-Tech
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America.

11. LATIN AMERICA
ECONOMIC RISE
ERNESTO CORDERO-ARROYO
15th Annual Harvard Latino Law
Policy and Business Conference
April 13, 2012