Stock market special report by epic research 2nd september 2014
1. DAILY REPORT
02nd SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
Asian shares slipped on Tuesday as a U.S. holiday robbed markets of momentum, while the euro hit a fresh one-year low on uncertainty over the European Central Bank's policy decision later this week.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Ja- pan .MIAPJ0000PUS lost 0.4 percent after managing to carve out gains on the previous day. Tokyo's Nikkei .N225 bucked the trend and rose 1.2 percent, with a planned cabinet reshuffle by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe helping fuel reform hopes.
European shares edged higher to close near a recent one- month peak on Monday, with merger and acquisition speculation about British broadcaster ITV helping media stocks and Novartis leading drugmakers. The FTSEurofirst 300 index ended 0.2 percent higher at 1,376.83 points, just below last week's one-month high. The Euro STOXX 50, which will add Nokia from Sept. 22, replacing CRH after an index reshuffle, was up 0.1 percent. CRH fell 0.7 percent and Nokia dropped 1.4 percent.
Previous day Roundup
It was a sparkling start to the September series on Monday with the 50-share NSE Nifty closing above the 8000-level for first time on rebound in GDP in June quarter. Hopes of achieving FY15 fiscal deficit target on the back of lower die- sel under-recovery also supported the market. The Sensex rose 229.44 points to end at new closing high of 26867.55 and the Nifty rallied 73.35 points to 8027.70 aided by banks, oil & gas, metals and auto (select) stocks. The broader markets outperformed benchmarks with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rising 1.57 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [up 149.93pts], Capital Goods [up 409.71pts], PSU [up 164.42pts], FMCG [down 49.43pts], Auto [up 228.39pts], Healthcare [up 23.39pts], IT [up 37.84Pts], Metals [up 341.97ts], TECK [up 40.61pts], Oil& Gas [up 179.86pts], Power [up 53.02pts], Realty [up 46.95pts].
World Indices
Index
Value
% Change
D J l
17098.45
+0.11
S&P 500
2003.37
+0.33
NASDAQ
4580.27
+0.50
EURO STO
3175.05
+0.08
FTSE 100
6825.31
+0.08
Nikkei 225
15676.98
+1.29
Hong Kong
24687.27
-0.26
Top Gainers
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
HEROMOTOCO
2,773.00
168.20
6.46
JINDALSTEL
247.90
14.90
6.39
MARUTI
2,927.60
143.10
5.14
INDUSINDBK
614.00
28.55
4.88
TATAPOWER
90.45
3.85
4.45
Top Losers
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
SUNPHARMA
841.95
13.30
-1.56
ITC
350.15
5.15
-1.45
HDFC
1,059.25
15.25
-1.42
BHEL
238.50
2.40
-1.00
TATAMOTORS
520.70
4.35
-0.83
Stocks at 52 Week’s high
Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
ARVIND
292.00
5.30
+1.85
BPCL
705.00
10.70
+1.54
CIPLA
529.3
15.10
+2.94
DRREDDY
2975.00
27.10
+0.92
ESSAROIL
126.45
1.60
+1.28
Indian Indices
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
8027.70
+73.35
+0.92
SENSEX
26867.55
+229.44
+0.86
Stocks at 52 Week’s Low
Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
2. DAILY REPORT
02nd SEPTEMBER 2014
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STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. APOLLO TYRE FUTURE
Long Build up has been seen in Apollo Tyre in higher strike Price. We advise you to buy it around 181.5– 12 for the tar- gets of 184.5-187 with the stop loss of 179
2. TATASTEEL FUTURE
TATASTEEL trend line support at 513 long built was seen in 540-560 strike price. We advise buy around 530-532 with stop loss 525 for targets 537 542
EQUITY CASH & FUTURE
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. JAI CORP
JAI CORP strong daily chart. We advise buying around 103- 103.50 level with strict stop loss 101 for the targets of 105-107
MACRO NEWS Japan to invest $33.5 bn in Indian infra projects. Govt said the under-recovery on high speed diesel appli- cable for first fortnight of Sep. effective from yesterday will go down to Rs 0.08 per litre. This was Rs 1.78 per liter during 2nd fortnight of Aug 2014. Gradual increase in die- sel price and stable oil prices in international market pushed the diesel under-recovery near zero. India's annual infrastructure output growth slowed to a three-month low of 2.7% in July, govt data showed on Monday, dragged down by a contraction in production of natural gas, steel, fertilisers and refinery products. The output expanded an annual 7.3% in June. Q1 CAD for the fiscal year FY15 widens to 1.7% from 1.2 % in Jan-Mar quarter. The CAD widens to USD 7.8 billion vs USD 1.3 bn QoQ. On a YoY basis, it has narrowed com- pared to 4.8% of the GDP during the same quarter last fiscal. The main reason for the increase in the CAD is ex- pected to be the widening of the trade deficit to USD 34 bn from the USD 30.6bn in a quarter-ago period. How- ever, the CAD and trade deficit are lower than a year-ago levels. The trade deficit has narrowed from USD 50.5bn yoy. Imports have declined to 6.5% and the exports are up to 10.6%. Gold imports are down to USD 7 bn.
3. DAILY REPORT
02nd SEPTEMBER 2014
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FUTURE & OPTION
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol
Op- tion
Type
Strike Price
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
PE
8,000
77.9
2,08,187
34,29,900
NIFTY
PE
7,900
48.75
1,48,315
42,54,250
NIFTY
PE
7,800
29.25
1,30,560
39,03,700
BANKNIFTY
PE
15,000
37.1
17,971
2,70,075
RELIANCE
PE
1,000
15.5
2,926
5,27,000
SBIN
PE
2,500
54.3
2,518
1,82,125
ICICIBANK
PE
1,550
23.25
1,625
3,63,000
JINDALSTEEL
PE
230
7.35
1,419
3,97,000
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol
Op- tion
Type
Strike Price
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
CE
8,100
90.3
1,81,776
40,37,950
NIFTY
CE
8,200
49.85
1,69,103
44,19,800
NIFTY
CE
8,000
147.7
1,31,672
37,99,850
BANKNIFTY
CE
16,500
184
32,666
3,58,575
RELIANCE
CE
1,020
28.1
5,106
9,21,750
SBIN
CE
2,600
45
4,713
2,71,000
ICICIBANK
CE
1,600
51
2,920
2,02,750
JINDALSTEEL
CE
250
14.3
2,876
10,73,000
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
SELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES
31510
1265.12
32495
1307.11
278018
11214.79
-41.99
INDEX OPTIONS
241313
9635.63
193389
7663.91
1186661
47625.35
1971.72
STOCK FUTURES
55451
2109.20
51921
1973.68
1257086
46319.85
135.53
STOCK OPTIONS
35213
1275.00
32360
1164.39
24040
850.31
110.61
TOTAL
2175.87
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
8,066.57
8,047.13
8,015.57
7,996.13
7,964.57
BANK NIFTY
16,224.37
16,118.58
15,954.42
15,848.63
15,684.47
STOCKS IN NEWS JSW Steel has intensified the procurement of low- grade iron ore to feed its starved steel plant at Dolvi in Maharashtra. Cipla launches inhaler Seroflo in Germany, Sweden 46 mines in question include allocations to JSPL, Hin- dalco 6 blocks ready for production include blocks of GVKPower, JPAssociates, PrismCement, NTPC , MP State Mining Corp & DVC.
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty Future closed upside in the last trading session. We advise buying around 8075-8080 with strict stop loss 8025 the targets of 8125-8175
4. DAILY REPORT
02nd SEPTEMBER 2014
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COMMODITY MCX
RECOMMENDATIONS
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER SEP ABOVE 42350 TGTS 42550,42850 SL 42050
SELL SILVER SEP BELOW 41950 TGTS 41750,41450 SL 42250
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 28050 TGTS 28250,28350 SL 27950
SELL GOLD OCT BELOW 27880 TGTS 27800,27700 SL 27980
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Silver prices fell 0.29% to Rs 42,131 per kg in futures trade yesterday as speculators partially offloaded positions amidst a weak global trend. At the Multi Commodity Ex- change, silver for delivery in September moved down by Rs 124, or 0.29%, to Rs 42,131 per kg in a business turnover of 67 lots.
The white metal for delivery in December declined by Rs 110, or 0.26%, to Rs 42,835 per kg in 158 lots. Speculators trimmed positions in tandem with a weak global trend, in- fluencing silver prices at futures trade here. Besides, profit- booking at prevailing levels too weighed on silver prices, they said. Silver traded lower at $19.49 an ounce in Singa- pore today from $19.46 on August 29.
Gold prices have been range-bound in recent weeks but traders have turned optimistic, as the festive season has begun. This is already getting reflected in imports. Inching up of premiums for physical delivery of gold suggest demand is returning. A fortnight earlier, the premiums were marginal and, on some occasions, there was a discount to the landed cost of imports. In the past few days, premiums of $10-12 an ounce are quoted.
Palladium hovered near a 13-1/2 year high of $910 an ounce hit overnight on fears that possible Western sanc- tions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis could hit supply from the world's top producer of the metal, while gold nudged higher.
Powering automobiles through biofuels blended with con- ventional petrol is good. The progress in using non- conventional fuels from sugar plants for ethanol or from vegetable fats for biodiesel is due to breakthroughs in sci- ence, as well as evangelism of the political leadership.
Indian sugar factories took time to respond to the govern- ment's ethanol blending programme (EBP), which began with five per cent mixing with petrol in September 2006; this was raised to 10 per cent in October 2008. While the country has sufficient capacity to meet the current EBP, new plants are being set up, following a government an- nouncement that by 2017
5. DAILY REPORT
02nd SEPTEMBER 2014
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RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA
BUY DHANIYA SEP ABOVE 11850 TGTS 11880,11930 SL 11800
SELL DHANIYA SEP BELOW 11750 TGTS 11720,11670 SL 11800
GUARGUM
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 15870 TGTS 15920,16020 SL 15860
SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 15630 TGTS 15580,15480 SL 15720
NCDEX
NCDEX INDICES
Index
Value
% Change
Castor Seed
4032
-3.98
Chana
2863
+0.56
Coriander
11763
-1.25
Cotton Seed Oilcake
1702
-1.22
Guarseed
5565
-3.99
Jeera
11010
-1.70
Mustard seed
3535
-090
Soy Bean
3280
-2.32
Sugar M Grade
3019
-0.49
Turmeric
6510
-1.60
NCDEX ROUNDUP
Poor monsoon, coupled with soaring domestic prices, has taken a toll on soyameal exports in the current financial year. However, a spell of rains persistent since last two days in soya-growing areas has brought fresh hopes for the farm- ers. On one hand some soyameal exporters are apprehen- sive of further decline in exports; Indore-based Soyabean Processors Association of India (Sopa) has said crop condi- tion was not that bad.
The wheat industry has asked for government intervention to boost its export. Despite this being a wheat-surplus coun- try, export has been “negligible” till now, it has said, mainly due to price and quality issues. Wheat export in April-May last year was $475 million. It came down to $367 mn in the same period this year and has been inconsequential after this. It wants the Centre to set up a Grain Board, to fix stan- dards, fix prices and other helpful measures. Speaking to reporters after announcing a two-day international wheat seminar, to begin here on Tuesday, Ratan Gupta, member of the Wheat Products Promotion Society, said despite be- ing the second largest producer in the world at 95 million tonnes (mt) annually, India could export only around seven mt in the previous crop season, due to prices here being more than abroad.
6. DAILY REPORT
02nd SEPTEMBER 2014
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EUR/INR
BUY EUR-INR ABOVE 80.1500 TGT 80.3500,80.6000 SL 79.9000
SELL EUR-INR BELOW 79.7000 TGT 79.5000,79.2000 SL 79.9600
GBP/INR
BUY GBP-INR ABOVE 101.2000 TGT 101.4000,101.6800 SL 100.9500
SELL GBP-INR BELOW 100.8000 TGT 100.6000.100.3500 SL 101.0800
CURRENCY ROUNDUP
The rupee weakened marginally on Monday in the ab- sence of any fresh domestic triggers, with traders waiting for the outcome of the European Central Bank's policy meeting this week for near-term direction. Volumes in the currency market were low on account of the U.S. La- bour Day holiday and following a long-weekend back at home.
The euro hit a fresh one-year low, as heightened worries about the crisis in Ukraine kept the currency on the de- fensive ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting later this week. Foreign fund flows into the stock and debt markets will remain crucial for direction in the near- term.
Although foreign investors have remained buyers of In- dian shares and bonds through the year, some concerns are emerging about whether the trend can continue, es- pecially since they have now almost reached their pur- chasing limit in debt markets.
The partially convertible rupee closed slightly weaker at 60.5250/5350 versus Thursday's close of 60.4950/5050. Financial markets were closed on Friday for a local holi- day. the better-than-expected growth data released on Friday aided sentiment for the rupee, limiting further losses. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one- month contract was at 60.90 while the three-month was at 61.48.
The dollar, boosted by the flagging euro and gains in To- kyo shares that dented the appeal of the safe-haven yen, rose to a seven-month high of 104.76 yen.The euro slipped to a fresh one-year low of $1.3117. The common currency was expected to remain under pressure ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting.
RBI Reference Rate
Currency
Rate
Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
60.4735
Yen-100
58.0600
Euro
79.3957
GBP
100.4283
7. DAILY REPORT
02nd SEPTEMBER 2014
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CALL REPORT
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
Contract
Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
01/09/14
MCX GOLD
OCT.
BUY
28050
28250-28350
27950
NOT EXECUTED
01/09/14
MCX GOLD
OCT.
SELL
27940
27840-27740
28140
NO PROFIT NO LOSS
01/09/14
MCX SILVER
SEP.
BUY
42500
42700-43000
42200
NOT EXECUTED
01/09/14
MCX SILVER
SEP.
SELL
42100
41900-41600
42400
BOOKED PROFIT
01/09/14
NCDEX GUARGUM
OCT.
BUY
16400
16450-15550
15290
NOT EXECUTED
01/09/14
NCDEX GUARGUM
OCT.
SELL
16120
16070-15970
16240
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
01/09/14
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP.
BUY
11975
12005-12055
11925
NOT EXECUTED
01/09/14
NCDEX DHANIYA
SEP.
SELL
11800
11770-1720
11850
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
01/09/14
EUR/INR
JULY
BUY
80.51
80.70-80.90
80.23
NOT EXECUTED
01/09/14
EUR/INR
JULY
SELL
80.10
79.90-79.70
80.37
BOOKED PROFIT
01/09/14
GBP/INR
JULY
SELL
100.8
100.6-100.4
101.07
NO PROFIT NO LOSS
01/09/14
GBP/INR
JULY
BUY
101.1
101.3-101.6
100.83
NO PROFIT NO LOSS
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION
Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
01/09/14
NIFTY
FUTURE
BUY
7940-7950
8010-8060
7900
NOT EXECUTED
01/09/14
IOB
FUTURE
SELL
61-62
59-57
64
NOT EXEUTED
01/09/14
TATA COMM
FUTURE
BUY
375-380
388-395
367
NOT EXEUTED
01/09/14
DREDGING CORP
CASH
BUY
440-450
468-488
420
NOT EXEUTED
28/08/14
NIFTY
FUTURE
BUY
7960-7950
8010-8060
7900
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
28/08/14
HCLTECH
FUTURE
BUY
1620-1640
1670-1690
1600
CALL OPEN
8. DAILY REPORT
02nd SEPTEMBER 2014
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NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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Disclaimer
TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
CONSENSUS FORECAST
PREVIOUS
MONDAY, SEPT. 1
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY NONE SCHEDULED
TUESDAY, SEPT. 2
9:45 AM
MARKIT PMI
AUG.
--
58.0
10 AM
ISM
AUG.
57.4%
57.1%
10 AM
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
JULY
1.5%
-1.8%
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 3
10 AM
FACTORY ORDERS
JULY
16.6%
1.1%
2 PM
BEIGE BOOK
TBA
MOTOR VEHICLE SALES
AUG.
16.6 MLN
16.4 MLN
THURSDAY, SEPT. 4
8:15 AM
ADP EMPLOYMENT
AUG.
--
218,000
8:30 AM
WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS
AUG. 30
N/A
N/A
8:30 AM
TRADE DEFICIT
JULY
-$41.4 BLN
-$41.5 BLN
8:30 AM
PRODUCTIVITY
Q2
2.4%
2.5% (Q2)
9:45 AM
MARKIT SERVICES PMI
AUG.
10 AM
ISM NONMANUFACTURING
AUG.
58.5%
58.7%
FRIDAY, SEPT. 5
8:30 AM
NONFARM PAYROLLS
AUG.
223,000
209,000
8:30 AM
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
AUG.
6.1%
6.2%