Financial "experts" continue to forecast not only a bullish market -- but an increasingly bullish market. Does the bull market really have years to run -- despite unprecedented (and growing) global debt and recent warning signs? Watch "8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble" now for answers with charts to back it up. Want to see more, free? Visit www.elliottwave.com/wave/bubbleintrouble
2. It is amazing to read assertions from the
Fed and others that the stock market is
nowhere near being in a bubble. Several
aspects of the financial environment are
actually so extreme as to be
unprecedented. Some indicate a bubble,
and others a bubble in trouble.”
June 19, 2015 | The Elliott Wave Theorist
Robert Prechter
President, Elliott Wave International
3. Record debt
in U.S. dollars
Total dollar-denominated debt
peaked at $52.7 trillion in early
2009. At the end of Q1 2015, it
stands at $59 trillion, an
unprecedented amount.
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4. Margin Debt
All-Time Highs
Never have more trading-account
owners owed so much money, and
never have they had such a low
level of available funds from which
further to draw.
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5. Stocks Are
Overvalued
(based on dividend yields)
The Dow's annual dividend payout
has been less than 3%
for 235 out of the past 246
months. Prior to the bull market
that started in 1982, the longest
duration under 3% was just one
month, at the top in 1929.
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6. Fund Managers Are Maxed Out
The percentage of cash in mutual funds has been below 4% for all but
one of the past 70 months (a period of nearly six years). Prior to this
time, the longest such duration was only nine months, a streak that
ended in October 2007.
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7. Stocks at
Triple
Extreme
Previous triple manias
occurred in 1901/1906/1909 and 1965/1968/1972, and both
led to severe bear markets. This one is even bigger and has lasted longer.
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8. Stocks Rose on Low Volume
for Six Straight Years
Such a thing has never occurred before—one year, maybe, but not six.
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9. Unprecedented Divergence
On May 20, Robert Prechter published a rare interim issue
of The Elliott Wave Theorist to tell subscribers:
“Today something amazing happened: The Dow
Transports closed at a 6-month low on the same
day that the S&P 500 made an all-time intraday
high. I doubt this has ever happened before.
“The Dow Theory non-confirmation between the
Dow Industrials and Transports is now [more than]
six months old. This big a divergence, for this long
a time, is very bearish.”
Robert Prechter
President, Elliott Wave International
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10. Advisor
Bearishness
at 38-Year Low
(optimism near record high)
The 30-week moving average of the
percentage of bears among stock
market advisors is at a 38-year low.
(Investors Intelligence data is
inverted to show optimism.)
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