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A patient decision aid for
    bipolar disorder
                                Full title:
                         MCDA-Based Support
                          in Clinical Decision-
                         Making Throughout the
                          Patient Journey: The
                         Use of ALBA in Bipolar
                                Disorder


            Øystein Eiring, MD, specialist in psychiatry, cand. mag, PhDc.
             Editor Norwegian Electronic Library of Health/Mental Health
          Head of Department of Knowledge Services, Innlandet Hospital Trust
My affiliation




  The community
 developing MCDA-
  based, Annalisa
patient decision aids
My affiliation
The Norwegian
      Electronic Health
           Library
10/2/201                  4
• Free access
                                            • for clinicians and
                                              patients
                                            • nation-wide

                                                  Guidelines
                                                   Journals
                                                  Databases
Nylenna M, Eiring Ø, Strand G, Røttingen JA.      Textbooks
Wiring a nation: Putting knowledge into action.
         Lancet 2010; 375: 1048–51
   10/2/201                                                        5
My affiliation
The University of Oslo
     (enhanced)
Menu
Menu


Context

Three problems (and solutions)

Summary
Patient decision aids

• Tools for personalised decisions
• Many personalisation technologies
• Very limited use of technologies


         Eiring Ø, Slaughter L. An Assessment of the Potential for Personalisation
         in Patient Decision Aids. Lecture Notes of The Institute for Computer Sciences,
         Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering Volume 91, 2012, pp 51 - 57
Bipolar disorder


• Singapore: 1,2 %
• Cross-national 0.3 – 1.5%


 Chong SA, Abdin E, Vaingankar JA, Heng D, Sherbourne C, Yap M, Lim YW, Wong HB, Ghosh-
 Dastidar B, Kwok KW, Subramaniam M. A population-based survey of mental disorders in
 Singapore. Ann Acad Med Singapore 2012 Feb;41(2):49-18
Bipolar disorder I

• Chronic

• Suicide risk

• Relapses

• ”Never well”

• Impairment

• Medication mainstay in treatment
Outpatient psychiatry in
   Hamar, Norway
A challenging encounter
Why can´t I stop my medication?
      It really bothers me.
I would be much better without!




               With permission. iStockphoto. The person depicted has no relation
               to the subject and the picture is for illustrative purposes only.
You must continue taking it!
If not, you will certainly have a
         relapse again.
You don´t remember how bad it
          was, but I do
(Not shared decision-
       making)
New attempt!
(shared decision-making)
Why can´t I stop my medication?
      It really bothers me.
I would be much better without!
Ok, lets try to find the best decision together
 What are the benefits and harms you care
                      about?
 And how likely are they, with and without
                   medication?
Three patient roles
                                             Consumer




                    Shared
                decision-making


Doctor knows best
                       Stubblefield C, Mutha S. Provider-patient roles in chronic disease
                       management. J Allied Health. 2002 Summer;31(2):87-92.
The goal


• Find - together
• the best decision
• for you
And to achieve the goal…

• Find the:
 • options
 • attributes
 • probabilities
 • preferences
In example, hypothetical:

Options    Suicide   Relapse   Nausea
           risk      risk      risk
Medicine A 2 %       25 %      10 %

Medicine B 1 %       35 %      1%
Four sources of knowledge
All the research in the world




 Electronic medical record
Problem 1
Knowledge not tailored to
          decisions

• All options not directly comparable
• Not personalised
                           All the research in the world
• Not always reliable
• Not always readable
• Tells nothing in itself, without preferences
A possible solution:
Network meta-analysis
Top of the 6S model
                       In
                      EMR

Readable           Summary
Relevant
Reliable         Network m.a.

              Systematic reviews

           High quality single studies

                Single studies
                      Dicenso A, Bayley L, Haynes RB. Accessing pre-appraised evidence: fine-tuning
                      the 5S model into a 6S model. Evid Based Nurs. 2009 Oct;12(4):99-101
A network of studies




     Vergel YB, Dunn G, Palmer S, Beynon s, Woolacott N, Soares-Weiser K, Geddes J, Gilbody S.
     A Simultaneous Comparison of Multiple Treatments for Bipolar I: An Application of Bayesian Statistical Methods. Poster
Direct and indirect
   comparisons




    Vergel YB, Dunn G, Palmer S, Beynon s, Woolacott N, Soares-Weiser K, Geddes J, Gilbody S.
    A Simultaneous Comparison of Multiple Treatments for Bipolar I: An Application of Bayesian Statistical Methods. Poster
Part 1 of the work



• Complete two network meta-analyses
Problem 2
Knowledge not
           operational
• Information about the effects of medicines
  taken is
 • not systematic
                      Electronic medical record
 • not quantified

 • (Often lacking)

 • not structured

 • not available to the patient
A possible solution:
An Annalisa decision aid
Enabling continuous
    registration of attributes
• Example: depressive symptoms

 • Patient registers level of depression weekly

 • Feeds into the decision aid



• Assessment of the effect of the medication

 • continuously and in retrospect
Will visualise changes over time
Part 2 of the work



• Developing the Annalisa decision aid
Problem 3
How to evaluate a
personalised intervention?
The problem with group
            designs

• Take considerable time and resources
• No improvement of intervention on-the-fly
• Do not establish causality in the individual



                        Kazdin AE. Single-Case Research Designs: Methods for
                        Clinical and Applied Settings, 2nd Edition. New York, Oxford. 2009.
A possible solution:
single-subject design
Single subject designs

• Extensive use within behavioural sciences

• Internal validity maintained

• Mimics and feasible within clinical practice



• Not the same as case studies!
Benefits
• Assesses effect in the individual patient

• Identifies causal relationships

• External validity comparable to group designs

• Determines efficacy in novel interventions

• Helps optimalise the intervention


• Design and intervention can be adjusted on the fly
ABAB design
Non-concurrent, multiple
   baseline design
Combined
3 novelties in this work
Novelty 1:

Complete NMAs and feed the values into the desicion aid
Novelty 2:


• Continuous registration of attributes important
  to the patient
• in a decision aid

    engineered for
     distributed decisions
Novelty 3:

• Utilising a single subject research design…

• to evaluate a patient decision aid
Flexible yet rigorous
A personalisable:
 • decision aid

 • assessment tool

 • study design
Thank you

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An MCDA-based patient decision aid for patients with bipolar disorder

  • 1. A patient decision aid for bipolar disorder Full title: MCDA-Based Support in Clinical Decision- Making Throughout the Patient Journey: The Use of ALBA in Bipolar Disorder Øystein Eiring, MD, specialist in psychiatry, cand. mag, PhDc. Editor Norwegian Electronic Library of Health/Mental Health Head of Department of Knowledge Services, Innlandet Hospital Trust
  • 2. My affiliation The community developing MCDA- based, Annalisa patient decision aids
  • 4. The Norwegian Electronic Health Library 10/2/201 4
  • 5. • Free access • for clinicians and patients • nation-wide Guidelines Journals Databases Nylenna M, Eiring Ø, Strand G, Røttingen JA. Textbooks Wiring a nation: Putting knowledge into action. Lancet 2010; 375: 1048–51 10/2/201 5
  • 7. The University of Oslo (enhanced)
  • 9. Menu Context Three problems (and solutions) Summary
  • 10. Patient decision aids • Tools for personalised decisions • Many personalisation technologies • Very limited use of technologies Eiring Ø, Slaughter L. An Assessment of the Potential for Personalisation in Patient Decision Aids. Lecture Notes of The Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering Volume 91, 2012, pp 51 - 57
  • 11. Bipolar disorder • Singapore: 1,2 % • Cross-national 0.3 – 1.5% Chong SA, Abdin E, Vaingankar JA, Heng D, Sherbourne C, Yap M, Lim YW, Wong HB, Ghosh- Dastidar B, Kwok KW, Subramaniam M. A population-based survey of mental disorders in Singapore. Ann Acad Med Singapore 2012 Feb;41(2):49-18
  • 12. Bipolar disorder I • Chronic • Suicide risk • Relapses • ”Never well” • Impairment • Medication mainstay in treatment
  • 13. Outpatient psychiatry in Hamar, Norway
  • 15. Why can´t I stop my medication? It really bothers me. I would be much better without! With permission. iStockphoto. The person depicted has no relation to the subject and the picture is for illustrative purposes only.
  • 16. You must continue taking it! If not, you will certainly have a relapse again. You don´t remember how bad it was, but I do
  • 19. Why can´t I stop my medication? It really bothers me. I would be much better without!
  • 20. Ok, lets try to find the best decision together What are the benefits and harms you care about? And how likely are they, with and without medication?
  • 21. Three patient roles Consumer Shared decision-making Doctor knows best Stubblefield C, Mutha S. Provider-patient roles in chronic disease management. J Allied Health. 2002 Summer;31(2):87-92.
  • 22. The goal • Find - together • the best decision • for you
  • 23. And to achieve the goal… • Find the: • options • attributes • probabilities • preferences
  • 24. In example, hypothetical: Options Suicide Relapse Nausea risk risk risk Medicine A 2 % 25 % 10 % Medicine B 1 % 35 % 1%
  • 25. Four sources of knowledge All the research in the world Electronic medical record
  • 27. Knowledge not tailored to decisions • All options not directly comparable • Not personalised All the research in the world • Not always reliable • Not always readable • Tells nothing in itself, without preferences
  • 29. Top of the 6S model In EMR Readable Summary Relevant Reliable Network m.a. Systematic reviews High quality single studies Single studies Dicenso A, Bayley L, Haynes RB. Accessing pre-appraised evidence: fine-tuning the 5S model into a 6S model. Evid Based Nurs. 2009 Oct;12(4):99-101
  • 30. A network of studies Vergel YB, Dunn G, Palmer S, Beynon s, Woolacott N, Soares-Weiser K, Geddes J, Gilbody S. A Simultaneous Comparison of Multiple Treatments for Bipolar I: An Application of Bayesian Statistical Methods. Poster
  • 31. Direct and indirect comparisons Vergel YB, Dunn G, Palmer S, Beynon s, Woolacott N, Soares-Weiser K, Geddes J, Gilbody S. A Simultaneous Comparison of Multiple Treatments for Bipolar I: An Application of Bayesian Statistical Methods. Poster
  • 32. Part 1 of the work • Complete two network meta-analyses
  • 34. Knowledge not operational • Information about the effects of medicines taken is • not systematic Electronic medical record • not quantified • (Often lacking) • not structured • not available to the patient
  • 35. A possible solution: An Annalisa decision aid
  • 36. Enabling continuous registration of attributes • Example: depressive symptoms • Patient registers level of depression weekly • Feeds into the decision aid • Assessment of the effect of the medication • continuously and in retrospect
  • 38. Part 2 of the work • Developing the Annalisa decision aid
  • 40. How to evaluate a personalised intervention?
  • 41. The problem with group designs • Take considerable time and resources • No improvement of intervention on-the-fly • Do not establish causality in the individual Kazdin AE. Single-Case Research Designs: Methods for Clinical and Applied Settings, 2nd Edition. New York, Oxford. 2009.
  • 43. Single subject designs • Extensive use within behavioural sciences • Internal validity maintained • Mimics and feasible within clinical practice • Not the same as case studies!
  • 44. Benefits • Assesses effect in the individual patient • Identifies causal relationships • External validity comparable to group designs • Determines efficacy in novel interventions • Helps optimalise the intervention • Design and intervention can be adjusted on the fly
  • 46. Non-concurrent, multiple baseline design
  • 48. 3 novelties in this work
  • 49. Novelty 1: Complete NMAs and feed the values into the desicion aid
  • 50. Novelty 2: • Continuous registration of attributes important to the patient • in a decision aid engineered for distributed decisions
  • 51. Novelty 3: • Utilising a single subject research design… • to evaluate a patient decision aid
  • 52. Flexible yet rigorous A personalisable: • decision aid • assessment tool • study design