Presentation from the workshop 'Informing and Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland”' - held 23 March 2012. This event launched 2 EPA Climate Change Research Programme reports: CCRP9 'Ireland adapts to Climate Change' and CCRP10 'Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Sectoral Policies in Ireland'

1. Ireland’s Climate Observation System
An Update
Ned Dwyer
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

2. Why are climate observations needed ?
• Characterize state and variability
• Determine natural and human contributions
• Help determine causes of change
• Support prediction of change
• Understand regional and local effects
• Characterize extreme events
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

3. Use of Climate Data
Agriculture
Biodiversity
Industry
Coastal & Marine
Energy
Fisheries
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

4. Use of Climate Data
Agriculture
Biodiversity
Industry
Coastal & Marine
Energy
Fisheries
Forestry
Health
Peatlands
Spatial Planning
Tourism
Water Management
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

5. Use of Climate Data – in more detail
Water Management
•Plan and manage for a sustainable water supply,
both surface and ground waters
•Manage for competing demand e.g. agriculture,
industrial, drinking, recreation
•Identify resources at risk from soil and peat erosion, landslides
and the spread of agricultural pollutants
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

6. Elements of a Climate Observation System
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

7. The Essential Climate Variables
As defined by the Global Climate Observing System
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

8. Climate Status – Air Temperature
Mean Temperature Anomaly (1900-2010)
- Difference from 1961-1990 Normal for 5 long term stations
- 11 year Moving Average
1.5
1
Temp. Anomaly ( C)
o
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Data courtesy: Met Éireann
T mean approximately 0.7o C higher than the long term 1961-1990 normal
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

9. Climate Status – CO2 Concentrations
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 1958 - 2011
monthly mean concentration
Mauna Loa (Hawaii) Mace Head
400
390
CO2 concentration (ppm)
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year Data courtesy: LSCE, NOAA/ESRL, NUI-G
concentrations currently > 390 ppm and still rising
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

10. Climate Status – Sea Temperature
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (1958-2006)
(relative to 1961-1990 mean)
Malin Head (coastal SST) AVHRR (45 - 60 N; 3-20 W)
1.5
SST Anomaly (oC)
1.25
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
-0.25
-0.5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Data courtesy: Marine Institute
SST increased at a rate of 0.6o C per decade since 1994:
This is unprecedented in the 150 year observational record
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

11. Climate Status – Above Ground Biomass
Modelled Forest Carbon Stock 1990-2009
23000
22000
Forest Carbon Stock (Gg)
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Year
Data courtesy: EPA
Forest carbon stock has increased by 40% since 1990
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

12. Status of Observations - Atmosphere
Yes Partial No
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

13. Status of Observations - Atmosphere
Yes Partial No
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

14. Status of Observations - Oceans
Yes Partial No
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

15. Status of Observations - Oceans
Yes Partial No
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

16. Status of Observations - Terrestrial
Yes Partial No
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

17. Status of Observations - Terrestrial
Yes Partial No
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

18. Some key conclusions
• Existing systematic observation programmes must be
maintained and those funded on an ad hoc basis (e.g. atmospheric
concentrations, oceanic) should be secured
• Additional resources required in a number of areas (e.g ocean
acidity monitoring, data homogenisation and analyses)
•Appropriate long-term climate observation sites should be identified
for variables monitored under other programmes (e.g. river flows and
lake levels as part of the Water Framework Directive; sea state for
ocean weather forecasting)
• Need for co-ordination between different bodies carrying out climate
monitoring to avoid duplication and to maximise possibilities for
synergy.
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland

19. Ireland’s Climate Observation System is relatively
Robust…..
…but a national commitment to long-term monitoring
AND analyses of the full suite of ECVs is essential to
allow us understand how our climate is changing
Photo: Courtesy Paddy Tubritt & Irish Met Society
Informing & Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland